If the Fed surprises with a rate hike, markets should drop by 500. This is a very low probability trade, but might be worthwhile of a lotto ticket. No one is expecting the Fed to hike and they’ll most likely do nothing. But in the event they do and the black swan even materializes, volatility will skyrocket through the roof, AND MORE.
Some quick back of the envelope trades heading into Thursday are long UVXY, long QQQ puts and if you’re really into this theme, long DUST.
Higher rates means strong dollar, gold down the drain, oil sharply lower, bonds down, stocks down, pain up.
Now if the market really gets hit, there is a chance that TLT will rise, as investors flee for safety. But judging by the recent action, I think everything will go down.
Are you doing anything ahead of Fed day?
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Sold 15% of gold yesterday. Expect gold to fly on status quo tomorrow. Will buy back at yrllens speach
The empire is crumbling. burn the shit down so trump can rebuild it with gold.
Eating popcorn.
Be shocked theyd hike this close to election.
Theres always the Gartman curse.
there are Wednesday spy options!?
Starting this month Wed SPY options started trading. Pay extra attention to what you are buying.
Looking to get short, but waiting for the no hike safety dance first.
The only reason the Fed would hike is to damage Trump. “Your 401ks are disappearing as Trump gains in the polls! Better vote for Hillary!”
I’m sure thats how the media will spin it… but I think Le Fly had made a post awhile back that market tanking is good for Trump vote… but I could be wrong..
Fly, whats that picture from? Looks terrifying!
Hedged with $SPXS and some $DUST. It is not a Sept rate increase that I’m hedging, it is hawkish talk about a Dec increase or if BOJ drops a turd. Regardless, I have never, ever regretted having a slug of $SPXS on my books. It always gets cashed in for a gain at some point.
can the bubble fucking pop already?
Who’s really about to “invest” in this market? incentising people to keep cash & then burn them with low/no rates. fuck?
There will be some serious chicanery tomorrow between the announcement and the end of the presser. The true direction of the market will not be evident until 3:00pm.