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Bearish Comments by Elliott Management Boss Spurs Global Bond Rout

This morning in a CNBC interview at the Delivering Alpha forum, billionaire Paul Singer, boss man at the behemoth $27b Elliott Management hedge fund, talked extremely greasy against the zero interest rate policy, warning investors to get the fuck out of dodge.

“What they have done is created a tremendous increase in hidden risk, risk that investors don’t exactly know or have faced about their holdings,” he said at the conference presented by CNBC and Institutional Investor. “I think it’s a very dangerous time in the global economy and global financial markets.“

He rambled on about the unprecedented nature of the zirp policy, strongly advocating investors sell their bonds. After all, it’s unsustainable.

“With roughly $15 trillion on the major central bank balance sheets, with all of these rates at zero or even crazily below zero, you have a very delicate situation which cannot be solved by a sledgehammer,” Singer added. “You need some finesse”.

Then he focused his shit talking mouth at foreign bonds.

“I think owning medium to long-term G-7 fixed income is a really bad idea. By removing these things that are bad ideas, that’s a helpful think. Sell your 30-year bonds. ”

The benevolent Mr. Singer, wearing his best Wolf Blitzer Halloween mask, said there was “tremendous, never-before seen asymmetry between potential further reward and risk.”

My take.

Men like P. Singer didn’t get to run $27b without being an alpha predator. This man is hard wired to think about himself first. He’s talking his book and I doubt he’ll be short bonds for very long. He’s bullish on gold, so that makes him an inflationista. Basically, he believes in the inflation boogeyman and wants rate hikes to provide him with an exit point for his positions. He is, without question, a robber baron styled caitiff of the first magnitude.

The notion that global central banks will, all of a sudden, seek religion and stop rigging markets is laughable. They’re entrenched in this ideology and are all in. As such, any long term bets against sovereign credit is a periless one. We’ve see these routs before and they all end the same: TLT hitting new highs.

However, at the moment, investors are viewing his comments and those of another bond bear, who also sucks bank dick, Bill Miller, as something of a prophecy.

Bunds and Treasuries are getting claw hammered.

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They’re wrong and you’ll see in due course.

The deflationary vortex is alive and well. Rates aren’t going up anytime soon, as long as western economies are saddled with trillions of debt.

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12 comments

  1. zuul4

    The only way rates go up for real, meaning the 30yr+ bull mkt in bonds ends, is with a credit event.

    Something like Trump pushing for haircuts on treasuries.

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  2. badduck

    Oh please, he’s insinuating that every other fixed income investor on earth is stupid for buying this paper. I wish I could get constant airtime to talk my book but unfortunately that’s only for billionaires not thousandaires.

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  3. john_galt

    BTFD

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  4. stockslueth

    Who cares.

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  5. cancel19

    “… wearing his best Wolf Blitzer Holloween mask,” LOL priceless Dr. Fly

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  6. jsal56

    Excellent post, exactly right.

    FYI Robert Kessler will be on Wealthtrack this weekend, he has been dead right about bonds for a long time, tune in.

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  7. superbus1982

    He’s absolutely right.

    If you are long 30 years german or japanese paper, you deserve to lose all your money.

    As to treasuries because they picked up a huge bid as a correlation they’re going to get hit very hard as well.

    Also analysing the sentiment is helpful. Yes they sell 100 years old bonds in europe. Yes managers were dreaming about them. Yes bonds inflows since 09 have been relentless. Noone believes inflation can ever happen again.

    Fly belongs to the vast majority of people, riding (so far successfully) a multi years trend that’s been consistently working.

    You choose.

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  8. formergeek

    Speaking the truth is now the rarest commodity on earth – I mean Planet Ponzi

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  9. roundwego

    you know rates explode high for a short period and then crash, so sovereign countries can pay high interest for a short period. market needs a cleansing.

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  10. firehorsecaper

    Awesome. Even Wolf got a chuckle out of this one. Many will get the sign wrong on the correlation btw bonds and stocks as they both take an elevator ride down. Gold should be the exception, even with a strengthening US$ on a flight to quality / capital preservation basis.

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