On Friday, September the 9th, 2016, markets plummeted off renewed fears of a Federal Reserve hike. In the history of betting on Fed rate hikes, there has never been an instance when the Fed had moved without the odds being at 100% beforehand. On that fateful Friday, the chances of a Fed rate hike towered over the market–like the sword of Damocles–at a staggering 24%.
On September the 12th, 2016, the biggest dove on the Fed, Brainard, said something dovish. As a result, the chances of a Fed rate hike for September plummeted to 15%, all but eliminating the chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike.
Looking forward to December, the market is indicating a 58% chance of a Fed hike, the same amount that was feared on Friday.
It’s shit like this why I walked away from a 7 fig gig in Wall Street at the end of 2015. The fuckery is pervasive and nonsensical. This shit only makes sense to people who’ve been dumbed down to the point that they only react to stuff, sithout ever giving things a moment of analysis.
If I told you on Friday, there was a 24% chance of rain, would you carry an umbrella? How does one celebrate something that was never going to happen because it just decreased in probability?
Meanwhile, all of Friday’s losses are erased. Poof.
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I don’t believe that Friday’s losses were about the Fed or the ECB. Financial journalists are tasked with giving reason to everything, explaining all market movements. The easy explanation for everything is the Fed. There’s something else though. 2.5% drop in spoos because hike odds increased? Doesn’t jive with every other recent experience of hike odds increasing.
Something else is out there. Could be Trump getting priced. Could be China popping back up. Could be something else. Def not the Fed though.
If Trump wins Yellen is a goner, rates rise in 2017 and the Fed has ammo for the impending slowdown.
If Hillary wins, Yellen drags on and will be afraid to raise rates, result…a systemic crisis come 2017-2018 with no powder to blast off from the slowdown.
30yr does not look good. oil does not look good. while fuckery is maxed today.
vix retraced 50% of fridays move.
pure evil fuck. hope she has an affair with an aids carrier.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-12/supervisor-massive-fraud-wells-fargo-leaves-bank-125-million-bonus
How about an aggressive botfly infestation with no ability to remove them before they burst out of her inflamed epidermal gestation sacs?
A 24% chance of rain means there is a 76% chance of sunshine.
You hit the nail on the head…. if you read too much into this, you will go insane. I found that my P&L improves with less news reading / analysis.
Mr. djia programmer:
Nice move at 9:50.
You get chip dip on your controller at 10:35?
Stepmom must have called after lunch at 1pm.
Nice move into 2pm hour.
Basically lazy ass after 2, sit on it, I’m done, Keep it in place, Day’s work.
FUCK YOU
Short moar fcx!
So basically the VIX = nearest month rate hike expectations?