This truly is a tale of two economies, one benefitting from QE induced degeneracy and the other suffering from the pangs of globalization.
Upwards of 94 million people aren’t in the market for jobs. How can this be, whilst the unemployment rate is just 4.7%?
It’s fuckery, largess, lads.
To the point, people have just given up looking for work, removing themselves from the unemployment ranks, providing government statisticians with the fodder they need to cajole the public into believing the economy is doing great.
Some 59 percent of those who have been out of work for two years or more say they have stopped looking, the Harris Poll of unemployed Americans showed. Overall, 43 percent of the jobless said they have given up, according to the poll released in conjunction with Express Employment Professionals, a job placement service.
“This is a tale of two economies,” Express CEO Bob Funk said in a statement. “It’s frightening to see this many people who could work say they have given up.”
The results come just a few days after a government report showed that the unemployment rate fell to 4.7 percent in May, but the drop came primarily because of a sharp decline in the labor force participation rate. The number of people of all ages whom the government considers “not in the labor force” swelled by 664,000 to a record 94.7 million Americans, according to Labor Department data.
Coastal people do not care about flyover country. Do not expect anything to change, once President Hillary takes her reigns.
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There’s a ton of min wage jobs for 32 hours a week if you want those.
This could change this We the People elect a primarily Democratic Congress. Then President Hillary could have the support necessary for her to do a WPA-like jobs program where people are hired to repair our crumbling infrastructure. Right now, the GOP blocks everything the Dems want to do, even refusing a hearing for Obama’s SCOTUS nominee. Obama wanted to do more stimulus for the job market, but the GOP blocked that.
With people getting hired for jobs, with money going into the pockets of people who will actually spend it in the economy, rather than money just going to the banks through the Fed, we could jump start this economy and end up with a much better labor participation rate.
Although not a Trump fan, I’m in Fly’s corner when it comes to faith in the Political Class. 2009 is what sealed the deal for me:
President: Democrat
Senate; Democrats
House: Democrats
Financial reform: crickets
Corporate tax reform: crickets
Then in 2010, Bush’s “temporary” tax breaks including capital gains were extended, so taxes remain below levels during Reagan’s tenure. it’s nice to see the Ds finding common ground with the “fiscally conservative” Rs
Losing faith is one thing. What you do about it is another.
Your choices are basically all some mix of giving up and let others shape what happens, using existing institutions to effect change, or destroying/supplanting existing institutions. Meanwhile, there will be other people who want something different and will be resisting or redirecting efforts to change the business-as-usual path.
Yes, there are things that Obama and the Dems did not get done that would have been good. But as long as there is Big Money in politics, every politician in office is going to be bought and paid for to some extent, Democrats included.
I do think the Dems are the lesser of the evils, but their campaigns are still financed by Special Interests, because that is the system we have, until we change it. We need a Constitutional amendment to overturn Citizens United.
There is also the matter of the Deep State. It is said that the pres and Congress don’t tell the Deep State what to do. The Deep state– which includes the big banks– tells the pres and Congress what to do.
The Deep State: The Fall of the Constitution and the Rise of a Shadow Government Hardcover – January 5, 2016
by Mike Lofgren
http://www.amazon.com/Deep-State-Constitution-Shadow-Government/dp/0525428348?ie=UTF8&keywords=The%20Deep%20State&qid=1465413449&ref_=sr_1_1&sr=8-1
another book on same subject
The American Deep State: Wall Street, Big Oil, and the Attack on U.S. Democracy (War and Peace Library) 2014 by Peter Dale Scott
http://www.amazon.com/Deep-State-Constitution-Shadow-Government/dp/0525428348?ie=UTF8&keywords=The%20Deep%20State&qid=1465413449&ref_=sr_1_1&sr=8-1
It is largely human nature. Mr bush pls fix the pain from tech bubble (and 911). Along with dem policies: Housing bubble. Mr o fix the housing bubble, job loss, and your appearance of success: manipulation out of whack of-everything.
Obama’s transformation of America – record numbers of people on disability, food stamps, welfare, medicaid. And a large new block of permanent Democratic voters. The only problem is, who pays for it?
If Pres Hillary can get a Dem Congress, we will pay far less. Once people have good WPA type jobs repairing infrastructure, they will spend that money, and the companies they spend it on will hire more workers. And the economy will then have more private industry jobs too.
Of course you get record numbers of people on disability, food stamps, welfare, medicaid when the government is prevented by a GOP Congress from stimulating the economy sufficiently. Duh… This recovery has come from the Fed giving money to already rich banks. It’s a top 1% recovery.
You have to get the money to the people who need it and will spend it, if you want the economy to grow.
The GOP claims you have to keep giving more and more money and tax breaks to the rich, to stimulate the economy, and it will trickle down, but that’s bs. As someone ( I think it was btn) mentioned here on an earlier thread, trickle down is yellow, not green.
Although the nominal tax rate is high for corporations in the U.S., what they actually pay once they slip through the loopholes is low. If letting corporations have loopholes and pay a lot less taxes worked, and trickled down, then the economy would be booming big time now.
http://www.vox.com/2014/7/25/5936837/chart-us-corporations-declining-tax-burden-inversions-corporate-tax
Oh give me a break. Hillary is disaster. She was a HORRIBLE Sec. of State and would make a much worse president.
For most of Obama’s reign the Dems controlled the Senate and early in his reign controlled the House. They didn’t do jack expect bail out GM to appease their union voters and cram a crappy health care law down everyone’s throats to feed the pockets of the insurance and pharmaceutical industries.
Try looking at facts, not myopic allegiance to one party or another.
I don’t like ANY of them.
To be fair, GM stockholders were wiped out, bondholders and the unions both took massive cuts.
Banks on the other hand…
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2016/06/07/citigroup-made-billions-buying-cdos-in-the-financial-crisis/
Michael, if you had had a pre-existing condition such that you couldn’t get medical insurance before ObamaCare, as many people did, you might feel differently.
There were just not the votes in Congress to pass single payer health care, which would have been the plan that would have helped people more and health insurance and pharmaceutical companies less.
Obama wasn’t perfect, but you can’t expect him to have a magic wand and do things that are impossible. A president is not a king.
If you don’t like any party, you are still immersed in Right Wing propaganda, as we all are, so you end up having Right Wing beliefs. The Right Wing propaganda does say that Hillary is a disaster. But it’s just not so.
Hillary is bashed in the media 24/7/365 and has been for decades.
Study: Hillary Clinton, not Donald Trump, gets the most negative media coverage.
http://www.vox.com/2016/4/15/11410160/hillary-clinton-media-bernie-sanders
the USA population is ~325 M so that has to include those too young to work and those who are retired / seniors. That headline number fails to detail what share these 2 irrelevant categories comprise of that ~100 M.
It doesn’t include kids. The denominator in the labor force participation rate only includes civilian noninstitutional population 16 years old and over. http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#definitions
wrong
Largest swath is 19-29, debunking your theory
No, you aren’t paying attention.
Iplongo is talking about the 94 million not in the labor force.
What you are seeing in the labor force participation numbers is primarily the aging population. The front edge of the baby boomers started turning 55 in about 2000, and 65 in about 2010.
The Labor Department tells us (in 2014):
In recent years, the baby-boom generation has moved into the 55-years-and-older age group, which historically has had a large proportion of individuals who were not in the labor force. The oldest baby boomers—those born in 1946—reached age 58 in 2004, and in that year people 55 years and older made up 28 percent of the total population. By 2014, people 55 years and older accounted for 34 percent of the total population. The aging of the population has put upward pressure on the percentage of the overall population that is not in the labor force.
The boomers are a bulge about 20 years wide, so we are probably seeing less than half of their eventual impact on the number of people not in the labor force. If you go to this page and reset the start date back a few decades, you can see the upward bend in the numbers starting around 2000.
As for your large 19-29 swath — the poll was conducted in May, when a lot of 19-29s are in classes.
This was an online poll, using members of Harris Online’s consumer panels. Those panels are an inexpensive way to conduct polls, but results are not considered good quality.
For a better look at why the long-term unemployed are not working, I recommend the Labor Department link higher up in this comment. It looks at 2014 vs. 2004. I didn’t look to see if there was a more recent version.
Fantastic. Who cares about poor people in America? They will end up being leeches either ways anyway.
Of course, almost no one cares about poor people in American. They do not necessarily end up being leeches. It’s possible to have jobs programs or other economic programs aimed at helping them to help themselves. But with trickle down economics, the poor do always end up covered with a yellow liquid.
A poor person who becomes a worker repairing our crumbling infrastructure would be making a valuable contribution.
U.S. gets D+ on infrastructure report card
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-gets-d-plus-on-infrastructure-report-card/
This is the reality of tickle-down economics.
For sure. No jobs or money trickle down. Just yellow liquid.
Fly, since you quit managing OP’s money… does this put you on the given up on work list?
If you want the real employment picture, this is only chart you need:
Seasonal Employment-Population Ratio – 25-54 yrs.
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300060
1) the lower bound is 25, drastically reducing the effect of long-term increasing college enrollment rates
2) The upper bound is 54, drastically reducing the effect of an aging, retiring work force
3) The denominator (“Population”) includes the Emplyed, the Unemployed, *and* those “Not in the Workforce”
If you are into scary movies, try this chart instead and extend it back 70 years and then forward (mentally) 70 years:
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300001
Great to see someone in comments who looks for high quality data to try to understand what is going on, instead of deciding what is going on and grabbing anything that fits with that decision (i.e., confirmation bias).
Seeing my coworkers move their 401ks to cash on 4/20 due to “technical indicators” made me feel great about staying long and strong. I’m still 30% cash waiting for the crash that never comes. Don’t exactly love buying things when VOO and BND are both testing 52 week highs simultaneously
There is a huge and growing number of people who hate all government and feel comfortably above all the political conflicts. That’s inevitable I guess. The most overwhelmingly gigantic ocean of propaganda aimed at Americans is the propaganda aimed at getting people to hate government and to not vote. Such propaganda has been a spectacular success. It’s apparently incredibly easy to convince people in a democracy to totally give up on government. Because… it’s imperfect– what else can you do about problems but give up on them, right?
Voter turnout in 2014 was the lowest since WWII
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2014/11/10/voter-turnout-in-2014-was-the-lowest-since-wwii/
Market going up regardless of any facts. Fly have you seen this before? Nasdaq 100 – QQQ- only goes up daily….every single day! In spite of World Bank slower growth anncmt., in spite of Employment figures…Even Janet Yellen candy coated that report. What is going on FLY?
Late 2013 – 2014, Tech every single day, Sometimes easily interpreted as buoying the other indexes, The PRO-GRAM-ERS were clearly using&moving tech almost every day
I’m not in the work force. It’s good.
So people from 19 -29 don’t count cuz they in school? That’s an excuse.
When do people actually start working anyway?
Perhaps they are in school because there are no jobs?
Bottom line , they are in school on fed student loans and live at home. Perhaps they only need those excuses and not jobs? Nice group of people. Glad that wasn’t me.
Regards
Chuck Bennett.
Typical Boomer rant. So first it’s:
“Minimum wage doesn’t need to be raised because those jobs aren’t meant to earn a living from. You need to get an education and work hard just like I did and then you can get a career job that pays well.”
Now college is just an excuse not to get a job?