I am opening up the lines for suggestions. Believe me, I am not without topics to discuss. There are many issues to touch upon, all to do with markets on the precipice of unparalleled disaster.
Nonetheless, the floor is yours. Try to set a nice negative tone for the week ahead.
Thanks
-Management
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How did you spend your Friday night? We had a bonfire in the rain!
Didn’t do much. Took son and friends to school party. Picked him up and watched a movie with him. Now I’m scouring job sites for my college aged son for summer work.
I personally want to know what will get the Fly back to his 2014 levels of wonton speculation… or are those days left behind the man Zombie once colloquially referred to as God? On a serious note though- are you done speculating?
Nate
Who knows? I quit the business and have been happy trading in Exodus, more macro than micro.
I believe my time is best spent trying to alert the people of what I see coming in the markets and trying to grow the site, than managing money for an insolated group of people.
Would you settle for an insolent group of people?
LOL. Go to Seattle. People are less insolated there.
Less insolated maybe but not less insulated. There’s the Seattle Freeze, where people are aloof compared to those in other major cities. Probably partly due to the cloudy weather, among other influences. Seasonal Affective Disorder– depression with social withdrawal.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seattle_Freeze
Everything is fine. The war zone ghettos of these United Steaks prove the matter. Gangs of (insert city) are back in full force and Hillary will fix it all. After every American trains an immigrant to do their job for 10cents on the dollar we will have said immigrants build trannie shitters. Everything is fine.
Hey Bird, when you look down and you’re not sure if you see a cock, head over to the ladies locker room. I love my Barack ! He said it’s all good.
Obama is by far the worst President in modern history. Ineffective leader and we’re more divided than ever.
So you think the divisions are all Obama’s fault. When the GOP stated their goal during his first term to “make Obama a one-term president”, are you saying he should he have “compromised” and left? How couuld he possibly unite the government and the people under those conditions? The GOP made that impossible.
Barack Obama is officially one of the most consequential presidents in American history
http://www.vox.com/2015/6/26/8849925/obama-obamacare-history-presidents
I think 2017 will be apoplectic. Not this year.
we want to read about wall street stories. Fortunes made and lost. Epic cocaine riddled parties with lots of titties (o) (o) (extra wolf of wall street)
mack
Go look up ‘Fly Stories’ for some.
Gold
In last two years has it paid to buy & hold any stock besides FB, AMZN & GOOGL?
What are some good buy & hold stocks…if any?
How bad is upcoming Wall Street disaster & will a recovery in stock prices follow?
Is Apple done? Will Tim Cook’s head be on chopping block?
How many brokerages or traders control market prices?
The day after analysts recommended AAPL 4 weeks ago – Goldman Sachs & Credit Suisse came out with a $150.00 price target: AAPL stock has been DOWN – every single day! Doesn’t anyone find that curious?
Are there any analysts a person can TRUST?
People don’t want analysts they can trust. People want analysts that sound confident. That isn’t what people need, but it is what they turn to.
You’ve got it slightly backwards. People want analysts they can trust; companies and Wall St want analysts that are confident.
I agree with both Ottnott and boyaj. Actually if you sell what people need, you go broke. Sell what people want, even if it doesn’t exist, and you’re riding high on the hog. Since the public doesn’t pay analysts, Wall Street does, analysts get paid to be confident in untrustworthy bs that they are spouting.
This causes problems for people, including political problems in a democracy. Sometimes people are elected to public office, who tell people what they want to hear, even though it’s nonsense e.g. “You can have your cake and eat it too because we’re going to reduce the deficit AND cut taxes.”
+1, frog
Apple is finished.
Is free will an illusion? Expand upon your answer using anecdotal evidence from the rise and fall of one Ghetto Fab.
LOL.
AAPL descending FB ascending, what’s the next big thing?
The next crash, are we there yet? What are the signposts suggesting we are near the cliff?
When the FED raises rates in June, get into TBT?
Is Gold the answer to currency debasement?
Does real estate crash again?
Re does fine. No crash
Compare of 2000 tech boom/crash and the current tech boom / coming crash. Would be fun.
This has potential to be much worse than 2000.
Migrant crisis in Europe and how that will affect markets there….
USD and 19 trillion in debt…..
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3586858/Screw-generation-Anonymous-congressman-writes-tell-slams-nation-naive-self-absorbed-sheep-admits-never-reads-bills-votes-on.html
I’ll be interested in reading this book, although I am already aware of the issues that the article mentioned. The problem is our system where Congress members must spend all their time fund raising in order to get re-elected. We need campaign finance reform ASAP.
The Congress member who wrote this is said to be a Democrat, and yet apparently reserves most of his scorn for other Democrats? A little bit fishy there, I would say. Bashing Democrats in government is a very well financed and high paying activity. It has been going on constantly, at least since Newt Gingrich in the 1990s and probably long before that too. It is one reason behind Trump’s rise.
http://www.vox.com/2016/5/6/11598838/donald-trump-predictions-norm-ornstein
The rapture.
What will the world look like in the year 2020?
Ghetto Fab indeed. Those were the days.
Always be prepared ,
Regards
Chuck Bennett
I’d like to see you do an in-depth post sometime about what happens if our good friends the Sauds can’t pump oil fast enough and the price goes back to $70-80 a barrel over the next year. What companies/countries win and lose? Would other commodities (corn specifically) ramp up with it?
Less serious ideas:
Will we ever hear from Horatio Clawhammer ever again?
If global warming is real, where will all the ultra-rich move to when the hamptons are under 10′ of water?
Why does MVIS suck so hard when it seems like they have a lot of great ideas and should be turning into the next APPL by this point?
Dr. Fly, excluding the financial markets and writing, what do you think would’ve been your chosen career path?
Career path
I love to write, architecture and landscaping.
Fly, there’s only one topic. The implosion of Hillary Clinton in the face of crazy Bernie and the resultant chaos about to ensue in the Democrat party.
Hee haw!
when has killary ever been not hated.
Before the long well financed Right Wing propaganda campaign that has been bashing her for decades now 24/7/365. Propaganda works. And negative campaign ads work– but not with people who already feel they know what the candidate is like. Which is why she’ll win the presidency.
Without propaganda, a comparatively boring candidate like Hillary could not possibly be almost as hated as was a former president who sent U.S. soldiers to an expensive bloody unnecessary war based on lies about weapons of mass destruction.
Hillary is a horrible human being.
How do you know?
Right Wingers need no reason to bash Hillary. It’s a nervous habit, like tapping your foot or biting your nails.
Am I a fool for not owning a gun to protect my family during the coming upheaval of US society? Not political provocation, but realistic consideration.
Owning a gun is not necessary. Your gun will likely do more harm than good. Learn to survive off the land, locally.
My gun trumps (no pun) your gold and stash of cash.
Four guns needed: Own a .22 for small game hunting; a magnum hand gun for dispatching criminals at close range; a .308 rifle for big game ( four-legged and two-legged) and a shotgun for all purpose protection and hunting. If you can only have one gun, get a shotgun. Very versatile based on the loads ((shells) you have. You can hunt anything from birds to deer with it—even protect yourself from predators.
J
I had this same question a few years back and decided it was better to be prepared. Ammo was cheap back then and why not learn to hunt? To this day, I have never fired one round and don’t think I ever will.
You’re missing out on a manly activity. Go to a local shooting range—better yet, go to the nearest National Forest (not National Park!) and shoot your gun. It’s perfectly legal. Remember the basic rules of gun safety…treat every gun as if it were loaded, keep you finger off the trigger until you’re ready to shoot, be sure not only of your target but what’s behind it and never point your gun at anything or anyone that you are not willing to destroy.
Part of being prepared is practice, practice and more practice.
Basel 3 Rules Boys
How to generate retirement income with a nest egg of $1 million after tax.
Your nest egg will double every 7 years if it nets 7% per annum. Try to do that and budget around those expectations.
Otherwise known as “The Rule of 49”.
7% for 7 years will not be achievable for most people, especially those that rely on other to make their investment decisions.
Buy and hold stocks: AMZN and GOOGL. These stocks made me my first million, and in the next ten years, they’ll make me multi-millions. Unless it’s for entertainment and fun, wtf are people doing trading bullshit questionable companies when they can own the best money makers in history? One of life’s enigmas…
People want to buy the NEXT Amazon or Google, not the current one. It would be more profitable. Unfortunately, they guess wrong about which stocks those are, about 99.99% of the time.
Frog–you have no idea the potential still with AMZN. Trying to pick the next AMZN is very hard. AMZN is a monopoly right in front of your face. 10x in next 10 years for AMZN. Not only will it be the first US $ Trillion market cap, it will be worth $3 T in 2025, based on growth in retail, AWS and bets + cash.
I’ve got money on the table that you are wrong about AMZN. The problem is that it is already priced based on assumptions like yours, so any small stumble will dump the stock, exactly liek what happenned to NFLX.
Now if you want to hold it for 10 yrs, yes, you’ll make money, but it’s going to $680 this year, and lower if the market does crash (IMHO).
AMZN is fair valued at ~$400-500, which would still price in tremendous growth at a PE >100
AMZN and GOOGL are very expensive. The bulk of the money had been made already.
Do not be surprised if a Trump admin targets AMZN for anti-competitive practices.
You underestimate the power of the dark side, Luke.
Yes, you have to pay up for the best in class. There are plenty of institutional investors who understand this principle.
180…generating retirement income on a $1 million nest egg…..allocate portfolio with AMZN GOOGL FB SPY (80%) and HY bonds (20%). Plan on withdrawing 5% of account value annually. In a good bull market, you could probably get away with taking out 10%. Reinvest dividends. Sell the shares to give you cash flow based on best tax advantages/capital gains. Enjoy life.
wow, this sounds borderline delusional.
What could go wrong, right?
You’re WAY too concentrated.
I know I’m concentrated. So are Bezos, Brin and Zuckerberg. You’re a product of The Street. I get the diversification thing, but with those companies and CEOs we are talking about businesses that come around only once or twice in a lifetime. If there’s something better, I’ll switch.
The nest egg is $1.4 mil, but I figure about $1m after tax.
I’m Canadian, and into banks, pipelines, insurance, utilities, plus a few flyers for fun. 30% short term bonds, 20% cash, 50% equities. Fixed income earns little, and equities gets about 4% dividends.
I don’t sell ever so I don’t pay cap gains.
I’m tempted to go all in on banks and collect my 4% a year for life, and the wife and kids can pay the cap gains when I keel over. In Canada dividend income is taxed at a lower rate than interest/wages/pension income. My finance guy said that was a terrible idea, but I should have done it years ago. I don’t care what the stock does, I just want the dividends.
You can do a lot better than 4%. Not caring about principle are famous last words of many lost fortunes.
Three days of bears ears in the last ten days. Interesting start to the summer.
Where is Fly?
Princeton, NJ
I’m starting to believe that AAPL has been subtly sabotaged by the tech community. Over time, the websites of each and every news service provides pages to my Ipad that self immolate after freezing the device for 30 seconds. I am unable to read any news site except for the Fly.
Fly who are your favorite baseball teams? Do you actually go to the games? Favorite all time player?
Mets
I haven’t been to a game since 2007. I used to go 5 times per year.
Favorite player of all time was Doc Gooden.
I pitched in high school.
Syndergaard, DeGrom and Harvey are probably the best pitching trio in baseball. Why don’t you go to the games anymore?
When the Mets collapsed in 2007 and again in 2008, I swore to never see them live again.
JP Morgan designed the Titanic in order to kill off the opposition to the Federal Reserve. The USA is a corporation. Social security is a mechanism by which the US Treasury uses citizens as collateral for loans. Discuss.
Are you Bill Bonner?
You recognized him. Very astute.
All countries have taxing power, so that is the mechanism that citizens are used as collateral. This taxing comes with vague promises. This taxing power along with currency printing power (or virtual power, sicen we do have the FED) is what makes countries different from corporations.
SS, by contrast has much firmer promises, and would not be viewed as an income-generation scheme by investors because of the large associated expenses (ie, SS payments to retirees).
Fly, I got a topic for you: Shorts and the Retail Investor.
Specifically, 99% of retail investors have long-only portfolios. The claim to be diversified, but with artificially-low rates driving all assets up in price, correlation is increasing. Commodities, RE, Gold, bonds, stocks – none do well in rising-interest/deflationary environments.
However, if more investors were hedged either through put-protection on thier stocks or through long-short portfolios, then they would have some real protection. However, retail investors are terrified of shorting and options ,and often don’t really understand either. So the question: is this fear of non-traditional/shorting products (hedges, shorts, options,CDS, etc) a deliberate effort of Wallstreet, or something that just came about?