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Monthly Archives: January 2016

Starboard Reminds Macy’s They Suck, Suggests Spinoff

Unlike Carl “Permanent Capital, Three Seats on Your Fucking Board” Icahn’s approach to pressuring management to make change, which entails taking a gigantic stake and then making a public mockery of his target, Starboard takes a more docile approach.

They own just 1% of Macy’s shares, yet still believe that stake gives them the right to speak on behalf of other shareholders, to let management know how awful they are and how spinning off the real estate arm could “unlock” secret and hidden shareholder value.

Starboard said spinning off Macy’s real-estate assets could “create meaningful and lasting value for shareholders,” the newspaper reported, citing the letter it reviewed.

The letter suggested two separate joint ventures, one for Macy’s landmark properties like Herald Square and a second for its hundreds of mall locations, the journal said.

Starboard added that Macy’s stock could trade as high as $70, nearly double its Friday closing price of $35.89, the Journal said.

Reuters could not immediately reach Macy’s Inc and Starboard Value for comment outside regular business hours.

Starboard owns a 1.04 percent stake in Macy’s, according to Thomson Reuters data.

In an email reply to the Journal, Macy’s said it is reviewing Starboard’s letter and views expressed by the investment firm are consistent with actions already underway at the company, the paper said.

How many fucking times do I have to see this movie? Shareholder value is never released…ever.

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Morgan Stanley: Get Ready for $20 Oil

I can’t take any of these clowns seriously anymore. The only point in posting their opinions, which are no better than some random chap on Twitter, is because they tend to make small waves on the day in which they are spouted.

“Given the continued U.S. dollar appreciation, $20-$25 oil price scenarios are possible simply due to currency,” the analysts wrote in the report. “The U.S. dollar and non-fundamental factors continue to drive oil prices.”

All of these analysts were predicting $150 oil forever, just a few years ago. Now they’re all bearish, until they aren’t anymore.

My take is even more severe. I am hoping $15 crude will punch off the faces of every oil man in Saudi Arabia.

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CRISIS OVER: European Shares Trade Higher; U.S. Futures Surge

China closed their markets down another 5% and Europe grabbed their balls and bought the dip.

It looks like turn around Monday is all but a certainty. The DAX is up nearly 1%, leading the trash from Europe inexorably higher.

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Here stateside, SPY futures are tripping over themselves, fixing to force Zerohedge to retire from blogging.

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CHINA ROUTED BY 5% ON HIBOR CONCERNS

China is getting smoked out, with the Shanghai down 5% and Shenzen off by a mere 6.5%.

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The selling worsened after the HIBOR spiked to a new record high, giving the plebeian Chinese farmer one more reason to sell down their overly margined, bullshit, brokerage accounts.

The Hang Seng is off by 2.4%, Brent is off by 2.65% and U.S. futures have reversed lower, now down by 10 on the Spy.

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Liquidity Squeeze: HIBOR Jumps 939bps to Record Highs

Uwe Parpart (wtf sort of name is that anyway?) tries to weasel his way out of questioning, decrying the U.S. Fed as the sole evil in the world and how China has done nothing wrong, with regard to fucking the entire world over 100x–building ghost cities and wantonly manipulating every aspect of their bullshit economy.

Meanwhile, HIBOR spiked by 939 bps, to 13.4%– new record highs.

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HIBOR is like the LIBOR, but without any semblance of dignity. The rate is set by the 20 banks that are authorized by the government to do so. The rate is used for Hong Kong’s absurdly overpriced real estate, valued in the trillions of Hong Kong dollars. The renminbi based HIBOR spread is indicative of CNH illiquidity in Hong Kong, creating an arbitrage. The net net result has been the PBOC intervening to prop up CNH, which is trading at a wide discount to mainland CNY–which has a tightening effect on the economy.

This all sounds really fucked up, like it’s not going to end well. Plus, look at the body language for the China apologist, very sweaty and jittery.

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China’s Privately Held Companies Are Crushing State Owned

So much for socialism. When China was booming, so many people praised the “command economy” of China as a model to strive for. People cited the bogged down ways of American capitalism as something too bureaucratic, especially when compared to the dog eating ways of the Great Walled ones of the orient.

Well, well, well: what do we have here?

Privately held Chinese enterprises are poleaxing state owned companies by 100% over the past 5 years, and 40% over the past year.

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NASDAQ FUTURES TURN POSITIVE, IGNORING CHINESE ROUT

Chinese markets continue to soften, inspite of a stronger Yuan. Most people think China will need to devalue the Yuan further, so this two day winning streak is simply another ploy by the devil’s people republic to buoy markets. It’s too bad that 90% of stakeholders are farmers with dirt in their eyes.

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NASDAQ futures have turned higher. But oil is still weak down 1.8%.

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U.S. FUTURES SMOKED; ASIAN MARKETS PREPARING TO BE PARED

Dow futures are off by 150. Asian markets are set to drop by 2%. Chinese markets are capable of going all the way, losing 5,10 even 30% of its value in a single session. Keep in mind, 90% of Chinese investors are retail.

Oil is off by 2% and the yen is at 4 month highs v the dollar. The fucking world is ending.

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I’m expecting a gap lower and reversal of misfortune tomorrow, leading to a joyous respite to an otherwise apocalyptic start to 2016.

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TRUMP INTENDS TO DESTROY WALL STREET

What sort of person, following Wall Street’s worst start to a New Year, sashays onto a stage to throw fireballs at Wall Street? Donald J. Trump is the donkey kong of Presidential candidates, ripping through populist topics like a fucking Reddit message board, appealing to the masses…of West Virginia.

“There’s a bubble,” Trump told his audience in southeastern Iowa, noting the nation’s high level of debt. “You see the stock market is starting to, you know, see what’s going on,” he said. “It’s starting to have some very bad weeks and some very bad numbers.”

“I’m really good at that stuff,” he said in Iowa. “I know Wall Street. I know the people on Wall Street. We’re going to have the greatest negotiators of the world, but at the same time I’m not going to let Wall Street get away with murder. Wall Street has caused tremendous problems for us. We’re going to tax Wall Street.”

Trump also highlighted his independence from campaign contributions. “I don’t care about the Wall Street guys,” he said. “I’m not taking any of their money.”

Truth be told, Trump appeals to my anarchistic side and I’d much rather have him in office than Hill of Beans Clinton. I’m bearish on stocks for a variety of reasons, none of which include a Donald Trump tax hike on Wall Street, which is brand new reason for concern.

Also, let’s not forget his position on China. He fucking hates them with all of his life force. Here’s Trump on trade, recorded just yesterday.

 

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Saturday Cinema with Le Fly: The Thin Man

Back in the 30’s, The Thin Man series of movies was huge, sort of like our James Bond. Back in the 50’s, there was even a teevee series called The Thin Man, but with different actors.

There were 6 Thin Man movies in all, starring William Powell and Myran Loy. They are classic whodunnit stories, the first done in 1934.

It’s a thematic film, with the couple spending their days and night’s drinking martinis, trying to solve murder mysteries. What’s not to like?

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