At the Worst, You Have Another 3% to the Downside

January can usher in true deacons of death; but it’s not gonna happen in 2014. Don’t ask why. Worst case scenario, the market bugs out and we slide another 3%, closing out the month -3.5% for the month. Oh the tragedy!

Bear in mind, if we go down in January, we’re gonna forklift in February. There’s no escaping this brazen bull market. It’s the sort of beast that roasts you alive and you’d be the better for it.

Don’t bet against The Beard and it’s probably not a good idea to bet against “YaYo Yellen.” Not only is she a dwarf-like woman/creature, occupying the seat of legend, controller of the monetary base aka “The Devil,” she needs to make her mark immediately–else be considered a mistake.

You wouldn’t like to be called a mistake, would you?

There’s no point giving picks this evening, as I am likely to change my mind as I go. Sure YELP is interesting 10 points lower and I certainly like a biotech hand-grenade, every so often. But my current positions suit me just fine.

You won’t hear me repine, following a +70% year, while starting January with a graceful +4% start.

I have cash of about 12%, from last week’s sales. I was 130% leveraged long, so I have plenty of ammunition.

The market sells off, in good olde fashioned tumultuous nature, and the lot of you are scurrying about, falling off the sides of the ship. Many an expert on Twitter today professing to take “proper risk management” now that the market has “reversed and gone lower.” You stupid knave. Nothing has changed but the date on the calendar.

Didn’t I tell you January would be slightly lower, followed by a maganimous February?

I promise you if you bet against this tape, in an aggressive way, you are going to regret it.

As for me, I yawned at today’s decline and relish in the idea of buying BALT, post Capesize rate collapse, which closed a tad above $13,000. WOW! My positions in TXTR and GOGO took the edge off of today’s decline and I remain, ever so steadfastly, in the corner of the bulls.

I can’t understand what the hell these companies do!

For the life of me, I read through their statements and listened to their conference calls; but it’s all mumbo gumbo–frankly. Biotechs are nothing more, or less, than high stake gambles. The scientists assigned to these companies couldn’t care less about share prices and don’t mind sending in drugs for FDA denials, just so they could fine tune it for approval later. Bear in mind, this coming from a man who owns a large position in RPTP should come across as “all the more credible” and entirely “genuine.”

I like CLDX, CGIX (thin), RGLS, ENZY and maybe a little ONCY.

If you want to gamble a lot, have a look at AMRN. One of their stupid drugs were cast aside by the FDA last year and is up for review RIGHT NOW. The FDA promised to give them an answer by 1/15/13. That means: the stock is either going to crater or soar within two trading days.

GOOD LUCK!

The truth is, there are many biotech stocks that I want to buy now, since they’re all running, looking all cool and stuff, showing their swagger with extreme imprudence. But I had to check myself, not once, but twice. I have enough tied up in RPTP and if I took my cash and bought another biotech hand grenade, I’d be placing myself into the hurt locker, without any means to detonate the device. I’d just be sitting there, like a paradiddle, waiting to explode.

Look at that, the market is up. What a wonderful surprise.

The sages at S&P futures are bankrupted again, after leaning on them all of last night, into this morning. I hope, for their sake, they quickly reversed their positions and went long. Truth be told, that’s not going to help them live longer. The toils of dealing with a futures market that is both corrupt and broken is too much for any many to bear. Those traders will die very painful and drawn out deaths.

Speaking of which, I cannot think of a group of bears more deserving of death than GOGO shorts. It’s not because I am long the stock that I wish this unpleasant surprise to be granted to GOGO shorts. On the contrary. These people don’t even know why they are short the stock. Truth be told, and I’ve never been accused of telling a lie, not even a one that is white: death is the only remedy for these disheveled and disgusting individuals.

Don’t get me wrong, old chap. I am not calling for an immediate death, a murder of sorts. On the contrary. Let them remain in their stupid boxes and bear witness to what happens when an unmovable object crashes into a giant sword. In this case, the giant sword is GOGO of course.

We all want to fly on airplanes and surf the web. We want to text and be jolly about the skies with high speed access. You cannot stop progress, small men from the message boards, but only hope to delay it!

BALT announced the commitment to buy two vessels this morning:

Baltic Trading announced that it has exercised its option to acquire two additional Ultramax newbuildings (6.17)
BALT announced that it has exercised its option to acquire two additional Ultramax newbuildings.
The two option vessels, which will have the same specifications and purchase price as the Ultramax newbuildings Baltic Trading previously agreed to acquire, are expected to be delivered to Baltic Trading during the second and third quarters of 2015.
John C. Wobensmith, President and Chief Financial Officer, commented, “Management’s strategic decision to exercise the option to acquire two additional Ultramax newbuildings is consistent with our ongoing efforts to take advantage of favorable asset prices. With four Ultramax newbuildings now scheduled to be delivered to Baltic Trading, combined with the recently completed acquisitions of two Capesize and two Handysize vessels, we are poised to more than double the size of our modern fleet on a tonnage basis. We intend to use a combination of cash on hand, future cash flow from operations as well as commercial bank debt to fully finance the acquisition of the four Ultramax newbuildings for the benefit of shareholders.”

I am very mixed on this move. The company seems to be spending money like drunken sailors (pun intended). If they are correct and rates trend higher, the stock price will catapult higher. However, if they are wrong…

BEAM is being acquired. Wow.

The liver trade takes a breather, following uneventful news from ICPT. Hot money gets fickle, fast.

DSX was upgraded at DB

Goldman upped its target on TWTR to $65.

Genzyme bought 28% of ALNY for $80. The stock closed at $66 on Friday. ALNY is a liver play. QED.

PAMT started with a strong buy at Needham?

SODA and LULU suck.

Opco named ANGI its top small cap pick for 2014. I couldn’t agree more.

Look, pal, there are plenty of moving parts this morning. Do your own homework and quit eating all of those bagels in the morning. The consumer appears to be dead and jobs are hard to come by. However, markets are at new highs and the well-to-do have never been better. They must be busy buying Picassos and Basqiuat paintings, totally uninterested in afflicting themselves, and loved ones, with type 2 diabetes via the explicit consumption of soda pop.

Futures are 4 points to the downside this evening, setting up for a poor opening on Monday. Does anyone still put any credence into the god damned futures market anymore? The people who trade futures must be halfway retarded fortune tellers who enjoy to be beaten about the face and chest with war-hammers.

I don’t get it.

Each and every day, the god damned futures are down 4. Sometimes it gets real panicky and they go down 9 or 10. By the time the market opens for trade, they are flat and then the market pistol whips all of the futures traders–again– soaring 200, goose-stepping on necks and eyebrows all the way to the bank. I’d rather sit in a room, by myself, and eat lemons all day, instead of trying to predict the future of the market, on a tick by tick basis, with leverage to boot.

I am sure some people have gotten rich trading futures. It’s easy to see how. Make the right trade and voila, presto: you’re rich. But you’re not gonna keep that money, pal. The house always wins and in this case, you’re not the house.

No matter how much money you have, the futures bandits will take it, snatch your gold chain and leave you in the gutter begging for a roasted beef sandwich. If you want to gamble and have very little regard for personal health and life expectancy, trade equity options. As you know, I had my run with options here and had to stop, since my addictive personality was causing it to be a ‘going concern’ for house Fly. I am sure I’d blow up my entire fortune, fantastically in equity options, if given free reign over the families assets. Like any responsible wife, on occasion, I am placed in cheque, convinced to discard my inner savage, who’d be content spending all day and night trading the options market, whilst drinking single malt scotch from the bottle. It takes a strong woman to tame a predator hawk, such as myself, flying about the woods, picking up men and throwing them off the mountainside– not for necessity, but for pleasure!!! (more than 2 exclamatory marks represents acute mental instability. Trust me, I am a Doctor)

You do not need me for this. This is easy. Simply take a bunch of stock symbols, write them on small pieces of paper and throw them on the floor. Whichever symbols are facing up, those are the stocks “worth buying.” You can nerd it up and spent inordinate amounts of time studying stuff that you’ll never understand. Or, you can contract a good Doctor to offer expert opinions on drugs and the companies that make them, which will cost you thousands of dollars in consultant fees.

Or, you can throw a bunch of symbols on the floor and buy the ones that are facing up.

Go with the latter.

Top picks: BALT, RPTP, TXTR. I’m also eyeballing CEMP.

I traded the dot com bubble and started my career by winning in it. It’s very common for people to refer to a market euphoria as being “dot-comish”. But the truth is, no matter the level of enthusiasm, there hasn’t been a sector that has matched the dot com bubble profile since 2000. Reason being: most of the stocks that are lifting off now do so methodically and are earnings per share positive.

UNTIL NOW.

The biotech or biochem sector is in the middle of a lunatic phase, whereby everything is melting up, frantically and without top hat, and 90%+ of these companies won’t make a dime for another decade. It’s the perfect sector, isn’t it?

Have a look at some recent returns, on a 1 month and daily scale.

ICPT is the new Geocities and there are a few dozen companies like it dying to come public.

Keep in mind, these companies have a proclivity of blowing up by 90% inside of a single session upon receiving heinous news that their drugs do not help anyone, but kill or maim people. Every so often, you will find a real one, like RGEN, and make a bundle. Like the dot com bubble, I intend to play this sector, but not get attached to it and certainly do not get lured into the sexy stories of cures for cancer and baldness.

ICPT is up another $200! This surpasses the crazy eyed moves of the dot com era.

BAC just slapped an amazing $872 price target on it.

As a result, both CNAT and GALT are up in sympathy. I ran this by one of my sources, “the good doctor”, and he concurred with my assessment of RPTP. There’s a little selling in RPTP today. But given the fanaticism taking place in liver stocks, you never know when or if this thing will pop off.

I added to my RPTP position today.

Even though the jobs numbers came in a staggering 130,000 jobs below estimates, you have to ignore them and wait for the revision upwards. We all know the economy is ripping on all cylinders and retailers are smoking hot because of it. The unemployment rate is now under 7% and Obama has been confirmed as the “single best President for the economy in the history of the United States.”

Futures are +5 because it is bright. Liver stocks are running higher in the most unbelievable way possible and Le Fly has plans, lots of them, to reallocate cash back into the market today.

Long live the stock exchange. God praise Obama.