A Suckers Day

It was a day out of hell for some. For others, it was a day of genius. With about 35% of stocks higher, many dodged today’s bullets and rode into the weekend feeling brave, magnanimous, victorious. However, pride always come before the fall and the market is speaking in a different tongue.

It was a classic suckers today, whereby stocks gapped lower, screamed higher, then walked down into the bell. Come sunday night, as sure as I am sitting here, a great tragedy will be revealed and futures are going to cause heart attacks across america. Asian markets will be decapitated and it all ends badly.

That’s how I am feeling now, after witnessing today’s trade. Many of my colleagues are “feeling their oats”, buying stuff today like drunken sailors marooned on an island without food, yet replete with disease and agony. I fell into the trap this morning and bought more ANGI and AFOP. My cash position is about 11% and I wished it were much higher; but I lack the courage and the internal fortitude to sell it all now. I work best under stress conditions and need to feel the heat from the flames before I remove myself from the situation.

My prognosis is grim. My position is stable. The current condition of the patient is critical.

DEVELOPING…

I added to both, small bites, while eating protein laden foods.

You’re not going to enjoy today’s trade and you will certainly lament the opening trade in Asian on sunday night. Thankfully, you have the super bowl to serve as a distraction. In many ways, this is a very traditional decline, with stocks whooshing lower, unannounced, while treasuries and gold trade higher. Commodity driven currencies are smashed into the earth and the dollar and yen are safe havens.

The silver lining of it all is the reduction of rates and drop in gasoline prices.

However, let’s not get disillusioned. During all previous market calamities, these same characteristics were present. The tone of this market is very bad and I have to believe it means something, considering it coincides with the retirement of a certain Benjamin Shalom Bernanke.

Ben’s blunt smoking chairmanship has been a boon for investors. He’s been the single best catalyst to own stocks since 2009 and now he’s leaving. By the way, how does Greenspan get 18 years and Ben only 8? Some people believe Janet Yellen is going to tone down the Fed’s influence on markets, disassociating itself from the cocaine parties and such. What is that worth, percentage wise? 5, 10, 15%?

How does one begin to quantify?

This is what I know: today’s drop comes as a big surprise to all “normal” people. I was tricked into allocating funds to the market yesterday and regret it today, like many of you. I will not be fooled again and will reserve the 12% cash that I have left for “code red” prices.

Let the dumb bastards post articles on Seeking Alpha, backed up by lies and innuendo. We will short their criminality and take advantage of the discounts. I do not pretend to know anything about ANGI’s numbers for the quarter. But then again, neither do they; but that doesn’t stop them from making believe they do. However, my agenda is distinctly different from theirs. Where I am a mere servant of the market, buying stock in a company that I like and use all the time, they are devils, evil men, the very worst kind of person whose avarice for money and position–in the end–will vanquish them and give them a great comeuppance.

I finished the day +2.5%, with 12% cash on the books, still waiting for better prices.

I put some money to work, thinking we have a few days of upside, adding to all three positions with decent size.

As an aside, on this great day of social triumph, the misinformed losers at Seeking Alpha decided to gun after Angie’s list. Is it worth perusing?

ABSOLUTELY NOT.

Let’s just examine this author and his recent track record, shall we? You know, damned well, its been easy money to bet against these bozos at SA.

Short N @104.5 on 1/10/14
Short CRM @54 on 12/27/13
Short EA @22 on 12/13/13
Short MOVE @15.2 on 12/9/13
Short all “momemtum and financial investments” on 12/4/13
Short NFLX @ $347 on 11/22/13

Need I continue?

This David Trainer character needs to read iBankCoin more often and cease and desist offering financial advice on the internets–because he sucks.

January sets the tone and Facebook is the new Apple. Zuckerberg has placed himself at the front of the class, out of a very large group of nerds, leading the market higher. His numbers were sublime and his business kicks Yahoo’s in the face, repeatedly, forcing Marissa Meyer to love Alibaba even more.

These gains must stick, and they will.

Social media shall lead the way and you will rue the day you decided to sell short ANGI.

Good day.

NOTE: I am long FB from $32.

What if that stock that I bought today gets bought out tomorrow, or over the weekend? What if Warren Buffett takes a stake, or better yet Carl Icahn?

What if I leverage my assets and nail the next move? What if I get that big client and what if I decide to sell my business and travel like Dubz for the next 10 years?

What if I pick the next NFLX, AMZN or GOOG and actually hold it instead of taking a quick profit? What if Seeking Alpha decides to write an article about one of my big positions? What if I get the right stock, but at the wrong time? When should I average down, or should I just sell it and move on?

What if I sell at the exact bottom?

What if I could time it right and sell at the exact top? Will I buy it back cheaper or move on?

What if I could double my gains and double my income? What would I do with the extra money?

What if the market tops? What if 2008 happens again? What should I short?

When is a good time to buy a winner? Why do I let valuation get in the way of buying a winner? Since when did it ever matter?

What if my winner misses earnings and I give back all of my gains? What if the FDA says no?

What if I buy calls on that stock I’ve been eyeing and they smash earnings? What will I buy after I take profits?

Should I spend more money on the house, another car, or use it for travel?

Why don’t I just reinvest it and make more?

Why am I so greedy?

These are just some of the questions I ask myself, every single day, when trading.

I think investors are finally pricing in the end of the Bernanke era. We don’t know what to expect with Yellen, frankly. Often times these new Fed heads like to make a stand early on and sometimes that stand is negative for markets. Remember, the market hated Ben early on. Just recall Jim Cramer plastering his mug on a box of Uncle’s Ben’s rice and chastising him for “knowing nothing.”

So we are undergoing a correction and it’s unsettling. We have to worry about Asian borrowing costs and their stupid currencies, plagued with run away inflation. And, we need to be mindful of the deep freeze this country is in, due to inclement weather, and how it might affect GDP.

Expect to lose money during down periods, unless you’re hedged or net short. It doesn’t do you any good to lament over paper losses, if you are prepared to make money on the next leg up.

I intend to use the 25% cash that I have now and leverage it to 50% of my assets and get long, BIG, during a high probability inflection point, at which point I will sell into the rally and live happily ever after. The amount of money that I will make during the upswing will far outweigh these petty, petulant, almost pest like, losses. I shall drink from diamond chalices, eating the brains of extinct animals, walking about town wearing long capes, made from dead animals, throwing money at the little children who look like they may or may not need the charity.

“Excuse me Miss, I’d like to make a charitable donation to your offspring. He looks a bit tattered.”

Down we go.

I just want to say that I am not surprised by the Fed or the subsequent market action. However, I am a bit pertubed over my status with the gods, with regard to my largest equity holding: AREX.

This company was mangled because they had “too much” natural gas exposure, comprising 40% of revenues. So, I got to thinking “Fly, natty is going higher, since the whole country is inside of an iced cube. Go long the company that was punished the most for producing natty.”

Makes sense, no?

Apparently not, as the shares of AREX are now being treated as an oil producer. Sometimes, every so often, the machinations of the market, the inconsistencies, get me so angry I could throw a homeless man down a idle sewer hole.

I’m not buying the dip and will likely hold everything until I am motivated to get back into the markets.