THE PROBLEM IS JOBS

There are too many of them. What we need to get this market going, a nice Santa Claus rally, is massive layoffs or exporting of good paying jobs to Mexico, China or Brazil. The ADP report of +210k jobs for the month of November is too much to bear. As a result, futures have swooned, mind you, lower.

I’ve never been a ‘big fan’ of jobs and would rather my neighbors live out the rest of their lives in leisure, roam about the golf course, taking it easy for the rest of us (extra Big Lebowski). I understand that many of you want/need jobs, in order to pay bills and acquire sustenance. However, for the sake of the greater good, can you think about someone other than yourselves for once and demand that your job be stripped from you, so that we might enjoy a Santa Claus rally?

In other news, the BDI is ripping higher again this morning. Cape rates surged ahead $1,858 to $28,899. BALT just took delivery of two Capes yesterday. The timing could not be better. By the way, Supramax rates are nearing $16k, making that +100% for 2013.

Why isn’t anyone else getting excited over the God damned shippers by now? What do you people need, engraved invitations, a fire works display and grande entrance via hot air balloon?

As owner of a small, local, neighborhood internet shoppe, I am able to see trends, as they develop, in real time. Throughout the years our traffic has steadily increased, only because we’ve been able to adapt with change. Many of my peer bloggers fell by the wayside into dark pits of black matter because they were dinosaurs; and now they’re extinct.

iBankCoin will last for a thousand years–because we are malleable and true innovators in the game of bloggery. In the year 3013, I imagine “The Fly XXIII” will preside over these internets and rain terror upon space aged plebeians who attempt to “snatch his swag.” Everything changes, but in a way, nothing changes– if you know what I mean.

Back to my central point. Have a look at some trends for 2013.

People aren’t using the computer as much as they used to. As a result, search referrals dropped sharply in 2013, meaning people weren’t looking up “Fly ibankcoin” as much as they were in previous years.

Our top referrers were Twitter, via the extension we use on Twitter, and StockTwits.

As you can imagine, our social networking revolves around Twitter, with very little traffic coming from other venues.

The browser wars are being won by Google, via Chrome. The largest drop off is from Firefox, mostly due to the fact that they’ve been sucking really hard in recent years. It’s worth noting our biggest growth is coming from our iPhone app. We just added an Android app, so that data isn’t represented here.

The game is being played via mobile, so get with the program antiquated blogger guys. We enjoyed decent growth in Apple products, but a 4 fold increase in Android traffic. Hence, we built an Android app to fulfill the demand.

Blackberry is non-existent. Going to zero.

It’s like a sick joke. On the national philanthropic day, dubbed “Giving Tuesday”, the market plummets.

Here in the Princeton area of NJ, an area that I am new to, everyone is donating clothes, food and money to the fine folks over in Trenton, a place so forbidden, it’s one of 4 state capitols where the Governor’s mansion is outside the city. The people from Princeton are much different from the gentile folks in NY and decidedly better than the savages in Staten Island, a place that was designed and constructed by the devil himself.

As for stocks: I haven’t the slightest idea what is transpiring. Today is my son’s 9th birthday and my wife and I have been shuffling about the neighborhood procuring his favorite things. We decorated the house to look like a Pokemon palace and my wife baked him a cake (he doesn’t like the store bought kind).

I see my portfolio is down over 2%, effectively wiping away whatever gains I made last week. But I’m not going to let it get to me. The stocks I own are good and December is not a trecherous time for equities.

Being the generous guy that I am, on this ‘giving tuesday’, I can tell you that The PPT is now flagging OVERSOLD on our 12 month and 36 month algorithms. The stats are convincing, with a 90% win rate (9-1) for the 12 mo algo with a 5 day hold of the SPY. On our 36 mo algo, the SPY went up 22 out of 27 times, when flagged OS, with an average return of 2.3%.

My bottom line call: the market will be 2% higher from today’s closing prices by next week.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoUM8hlJzls

The Dry Bulk Index is on one of its epic runs. The last time this happened, EGLE went to $9, DRYS and GNK were heading to $5 and the world as we knew it still sucked.

Here we go again.

I understand. No one cares until they do. Once Cape rates pass $30k, all of the plebeians will crawl from out their housing tenements to buy shares of BALT, GNK, DRYS, SBLK etc. If you were wise, you’d position ahead of the crowd. Although iBankCoin gathers a good amount of attention, read by all of the fashionable people in finance, it is not mainstream. Therefore, the ideas that you gather from these halls should be kept in the strictest of confidences, else feel the full fury of my unforgiving wrath.

Here is the BDI over the past month.

Now that I’ve done my part in stirring a race war, I thought I’d point you into some interesting directions, as far as stocks are concerned.

As readily told on the teevee, the month of December is generally a good one for stocks. Naturally, they just say this without backing it up with data. Truth be told, the market has been down 5 of the past 10 years during December. But who’s gonna let some facts get in the way of a good story?

But if you dig deeper and inspect the undercurrents of the tape, you can find some legitimate trends.

Using the seasonality engine inside of The PPT, I’ve come up with a short list of stocks that tend to outperform in December.

UN: has never been down in December, up 27 years in a row.
SYT: 13 years up, zero down, avg return 6.3%
GGB: 13 years up, one down, avg return of 10.4%
CLF: 22 years up, 4 down, avg return of 7.24%

Broader trends:
Steel and Iron stocks outperform, namely NUE, GGB, STLD and CLF.
Chinese stocks do abysmally. Avoid.
Homies do good, namely RYL, PHM and KBH.
REITs do fantastic, by far the best performers.
Oil and Gas: NOV, BAS, SD and CLR.
Ag: MON, POT, MOS.

Stocks to avoid:
CRUS, EXK, SWHC, BIDU, KNDI and RVLT.

How bad is CRUS during December you ponder?
Out of 23 years, its been up just 6. That’s a 73% lose rate in December for an average loss of 7.33%.

On the flip side, buying the blood in CRUS during December has proven to be a very profitable endeavor, as it tends to shine in January, sporting a 77% win rate and average return north of 10%. In other words, watch for CRUS to get crushed and buy it afterwards.

I want you to read a story with me; but promise to contain your rage, as this affront against mere children playing a game cannot go unpunished.

In the early hours of Thanksgiving morning, three Bronx thugs who were out for a game of “Knock Out” with what they thought was an unsuspecting victim, a white male in his late fifties to early sixties, got more than they bargained for.

The three men, all in their early twenties, were trailing the man down Morris Park Avenue, heading toward Williams Bridge Road when their prey veered into an alley way. They followed him into the alley and around a sharp, dark bend, only to find the barrel of a .45 magnum waiting on them. Two of them men were shot in the foot and the third was pistol whipped. Authorities nearby responded to 911 calls reporting the gunfire and called for ambulances. The men were taken to nearby Calvary Hospital where they were treated and released.

The men were not charged, but authorities are asking anyone who has any information on the individual who shot two of the men and pistol whipped the third to come forward. He is described as a white male, approximately late fifties to early sixties. He is approximately 5’10? and 165 pounds.

Police fear a vigilante may be on the loose, intentionally inviting wayward youth into playing the new “knock out” game for the intent purposes of maiming, or perhaps even killing them.

The knock out game is played when small to medium-sized groups of black youth seek out lone whites to attack and beat. They attempt to knock them out in the first punch. If this happens, the game is over. However, if the victim survives the first punch, the group sets upon them and pummels them profusely.

So far there have been seven known deaths as a result of the knock out game. Authorities and main stream media alike refuse to call the game a hate crime or even admit that race is an issue.

I know. You don’t have to say a word. Back in my days, in the 80’s, kids could play games in the streets without getting shot by some lunatic, roaming around, looking for trouble, with a 45. We’d play manhunt, kick the can, INCINERATOR (we’d fondle girls in the dark, inside the incinerator room), tackle football (on concrete), stickball, hardball (in a parking lot filled with cars. Use your imagination), freeze tag, asses up, Chinese handball, regular handball, errors, midnight madness (from the movie), amongst many others, and never have I been shot in the foot, maimed by some creep seeking justice.

The word “vigilante” is being flung around, describing this white chap roaming about an all black neighborhood. The correct term should be “child abuser” or “racist pig.” Could you imagine how crazy the media would be if a black man roamed around shooting white people!?

This has to stop now, for the children!!!

Just 27% of stocks were up today. If you made money, consider yourself lucky.

With all of the shopping frenzy taking place, Wall Street effectively tea bagged CNBC for trying to create a fervor around the classic ‘fade the black friday’ hype gibberish.

I lost 1% and was sorely disappointed with the downside reversal in BALT.

YELP was dragged lower with the rest of social media, after a TRLA downgrade; but recovered nicely into the bell. I am sure there were stocks that did well and some of you might enjoy bouncing around from one grenade to the next. But “The Fly” is tired of running from losses. As you can tell by my previous post, 2014 has been pock-marked with a slew of missed opportunities. Although I am +41% for the year, I literally should be +200%.

Long story short, December has begun with an uppercut to the scrotum, targeted at the small investor playing games inside of the internets, buying risk.

WNR

NFLX

HLF

DECK

WETF

GOGO

MU

WFR/SUNE

BX

APO

JAZZ

CTRP

OPEN

SNE

CXO

GTAT

NAV

ONVO

FRO

DDD

WIT

FSLR

ALJ

This is a reminder that sometimes, every so often, buy and hold is a good idea. I owned size in all of the above names this year and sold them for stupid gains or losses. I recall blowing out of DECK after an earnings miss in the $30’s. Fifty points later, I’m the dumbest man in the world.

2014 has been about the buy and the hold, making the traders look and feel stupid. I just sold ALJ 40% lower. I’m not sure if my prowess to pick massive winners is unique or common place. However, I am sure that I don’t want to repeat this dreadful record of impatience, especially on names that I am passionate about.

It’s very nice that AMZN wants to fly a helicopter to your doorstep. I am sure the good, gentrified, folks inside of Brooklyn’s urban centres will enjoy playing with them. Each and every year the media makes a big deal about ‘Black Friday’ and ‘Cyber Monday’. The truth is, people will spend as much as they can; but the economy is run, strictly, by the upper middle class to rich. All of the misfits who waited online for ‘sales’ aren’t relevant, in the big scheme of things.

Dry Bulk shipping rates are spiking again.

This is it, gents. I’m either going back to new highs or wallow in misery for the remainder of 2013.

As far as the market is concerned, December is a great month for stocks. HOWEVER, the Nasdaq has been down in 5 out of the past 10 years, including the last two. So don’t get ahead of yourself, pal. This market was designed to fleece you, in the end.

As we embark on yet another national holiday (cyber Monday), one thing comes to mind: IRON ORE SALES FROM CHINA.

It’s a perplexing situation, mind you. We’ve all grown to distrust anything Chinese, a land who prides itself on selling plastic rice to the poor and human embryonic soup to its rich. So, naturally, when I heard that iron ore demand out of China was more than robust, but fantastic, I was skeptical.

Then I had a conversation with an executive from a dry bulk shipping company. Apparently, this is for real.

Just last week the BDI surged ahead by 15% and is poised to move higher this week. When the dry bulk index moves higher, it tends to do so in very Liberace, behind the Candelabra, ways.

Once again, your top plays in the sectors are BALT, GNK and DRYS. The last two simply for upside explosion potential should Cape rates move up. BALT is your all around play, with even handed representation in the small vessels, as well as the big ones. They’re also the least levered and have enough cash to not only make it through the storm, but also expand its fleet–which is something most bulkers cannot afford.

I’d toss EGLE into the mix too. However, their last earnings report was so bad, I fear massive dilution and/or bankruptcy might be in the cards.

In short, I’ve held this hand for many months now and it has done nothing for me, as I am flat on my BALT position. Nonetheless, the BDI is moving now and so are the stocks. If this industry is going to do anything at all, now is the time, starting with tomorrow’s sit.