Bet Against the Housing Haters

Numbers were good today.

One thing that no one is talking about is the fact that mortgage rates have soared in recent months, due to “taper fever.” But with rates coming down again and the Fed firmly in control, I am betting that the housing starts and sales will begin to show significant year over year improvements.

My favorite ways to play this is via MHO, ANGI, TRLA, BZH and USG. There are other plays worth considering, like BLDR, MAS and FBHS. However, the pure way to play it is via the god damned homies.

The thesis is very simple. The US government cannot afford higher rates because of its debt load. Therefore, the Fed will keep them low, forever, effectively buttressing the housing market. The only way housing declines from here is a giant bubble bursting, which would mean the end of western finance anyway. So who cares, right?

Pick one and buy it, then walk away.

As for ANGI: it is, by far, the cheapest social media stock worth buying today. It is almost 4x cheaper than YELP and just as useful, if not more. I use YELP to stuff my face. However, I use ANGI to make permanent home improvements, which costs me a lot of money. ANGI is a buy up to $50.

FLTX just did a secondary at $46.79, underwritten by Merrill and Barclays. Yes, it’s true, insiders sold some stock and the offering was entirely selfish. Nonetheless, that doesn’t mean this brand new ipo is destined to denigrate shareholder value, just because some bozo (Seeking Alpha hack), who was EXACTLY wrong on AMBA and AVG, said so.

Since the Seeking Alpha hit piece, the stock has plunged from $45 to $38. In my estimation, the underwriters are under extreme pressure to defend FLTX here, and rebuff the absurd claims of some amateur short sellers.

This is a great company, on sale, that is increasing productivity for fleet management in the trucking industry. Growth is robust and earnings have been exceeding expectations. More than that, I sleep well at night knowing that I am going to fleece those suckers from Seeking Alpha again.

As an aside, mostly everything else looks like trash and Obama is beating the drums of war in Syria again. This is classic fall market crap.

UPDATE: I added to my FLTX position

Rates have been going lower, since the Fed day. Markets will trade up and down depending on emotion and short term news events. But this is a significant development that will shape the economy for many months to come.

You and your little mexican friends are gonna lose all of you money shorting stocks, playing Gordon Gekko from the illuxurious confines of your housing tenements. The futures will lure in the overzealous, the barbarians, to play the market to the downside, like miniature Jim Chanos’ talking smack about ‘global growth’ and how a great big cataclysmic crash is going to bring forth the second birth of Christ, who will then grow up to usher in the apocalypse– saving only those who went to mass on sunday and kept company with pedophiles.

This is exactly what is going to happen.

I am going to walk into work and sell some stocks, because they will be up. By “walking into work”, I mean rolling out of bed, directly into a three piece tuxedo, shiny shoes, cane, top hat and monocle, then walking 10 steps down from the master bedroom to office #1.

NSTG, EGLE and ESPR will all trade up, dramatically, staggering those who thought it could never happen. No one is short these names anymore because they’re all dead (I see dead people). Nonetheless, I relish in the idea, like a ghoul around flesh (no cannibalism), to afflict deleterious damage to fictitious characters who may or may not exist, who tend to be “betting against me” all the time. A psychiatrist might diagnose me with a sordid form of acute paranoia, which is perfectly fine with me. However, I will have you know, by no stretch of my imagination are there delusions; things are just grande.

Everything I say here is real and terribly troubling, to say the least (NORMAN BATES).

Back to the point: we’re going higher, even though we’re going lower. The Great Bearded Clam is lying in the tall grass with a Barrett M82 in his hand, waiting for the opportunity to bankrupt you suckers buying FAZ.

I was off by 3% early, but closed strong–barely off by 1%.

Sharp reversals in EGLE, MHO, and to some extent YELP, helped right the ship.

Stocks are inexpensive again, after this mini-sell off. We are approaching oversold levels, which is terrific since I didn’t participate in your losses. I am going to take my gains, like a purse snatcher in a Coach store, into the next bounce.

Once we get through October, it’s smooth sailing until 2014.

Bank on that.

Top picks: ANGI, NSTG, ESPR, EGLE

NOTE: I am almost out of IMMR and have begun to reduce my POWI position. I’m upping the beta.

I’m at it again– bot ESPR.

I started a position in NSTG, in order to partake in the decadence that is biotech.

I don’t need to recap what you see in front of your faces. I’m not starving for page clicks or retweets, sucker. I have my own money. Anything momo is getting lit today. If you stepped into today leveraged long into social media stocks, you’re not feeling very jovial right now.

On the other hand, my ANGI is working the street today.  I took her from another iBC pimp, Option Addict, on Friday–even though I was in it first. I bulked up on her on Friday and rode it down into the bell.

I’m good at skiing downhill.

All eyes on EGLE for me. I got the feeling it will fly again. Give it some time.

I sold off some POWI and more IMMR. I am almost completely out of IMMR. Considering the size of my position, the stock has behaved well into my selling.

Bottom line: if you missed out on TRLA, YELP, GOGO, Z and others, now is your chance to start edging in. Remember, Twitter is coming.

I turned off my monitor. I can’t stand to watch this carnage. The market is down like 30, yet I am off nearly 3%. God save me if the market trades down heavy today. I might lose it all.

I’m over here racking my marbles, trying to discern the mood. Clearly, we are in a risk off environment. Under the surface, momentum names are being clubbed to death, continuing the Friday death trap. For the most part, I escaped the tragedy that struck Wall Street on Friday, sashaying (no homo) throughout the day unscathed. But Mother Market, the bitch that she is, has made certain that Senor Tropicana “pay his fair share” today.

What would you have me do, sit here and watch this crap? Am I supposed to react and sell everything to save my hide?

I don’t think so.

Real men accept the sword in their stomach, without complaining about the pain, blood or prospect of living. Real men take the good with the bad and accept drawbacks as “the cost of doing business and aspiring for greatness.”

A great man once said “no balls, no babies.” Well, to that end, I am having mines boxed around like a speed bag this morning.

DEVELOPING…

Tomorrow we are getting some earnings reports out of some very important homebuilders. As you know, I’ve made MHO my top position, so this is a big deal for me. The sector has been under fire for months, due to higher rates caused by “taper fever.” Without a doubt, the housing sector is the most polarized industry in America. The bears cling to it, as their last great hope. The bulls point to it as something the bears keep getting raped on.

I believe the numbers are going to be better than people think. In recent months the mood has been dour and the numbers tepid. Anything that points to an improving housing market will light a fire under these stocks, sending them, well on their way, to new highs.

Today is all about Apple and how the people have spoken, in regard to who has the best phone out right now. Samsung is on the ropes and Apple has the momo, once again.

Two of my longer term option strategies has been long Apple and IYR calls. I’ve had these positions for months now and feel they are still great positions to keep.

Following Friday’s drubbing, it’s very important that the market bounce today, otherwise the market can and will get very ugly.