When the Spanish bailout news hit, Dow futures sprang forward by 200. Since then, the mood has moderated and we’re looking for a garden variety 70 point uptick. I’d like to think 70 points is good enough and say “you don’t want to rally too hard, too fast, else you might burn out”; but that’s a crock of shit.
It’s very nice to see we stopped going lower, always a luxury to be enjoyed in finance. But now I need a target.
I like the idea of 10% higher from here. Most of the stocks I am looking at, compared to their historical ratios, are trading at a 10% discount. Naturally, they are pricing in some sort of apocalypse, so it’s to be expected. Nonetheless, earnings will matter, eventually.
It just so happens, at this moment in time, I have an ideal melt-up portfolio. I am balanced amongst many different industries, heavily weighted in my ideologies. That’s the best I can do.
For those of you with weak hearts and nerves, now is a good time to take some profits, or reduce exposure. It’s been a rough spring, and before you know it, hurricanes of historical precedence will be fucking shit up across Ragin Cajun land. Not everyone is cut out to endure fistfuls of anthrax to the face like Senor Tropicana. Go chill out somewhere and vegetate.
I’ll be busy building the next iteration of my time machine, scheduled to launch this summer.
Over the past two weeks, the bears had the bulls reeling from renewed euro collapse fears. These fears permeated the psyche of run of the mill, staid, Wall Street money managers to the point of capitulation. But the bid was there the whole time; you just couldn’t see it on your level two. The funny shit, you all knew the end result. Every single one of you bearshitting motherfuckers knew the central banks would come up with a policy response, because that’s what they do. You relied upon German irrationalism.
WHAT THE FUCK IS WRONG WITH YOU?
The common theme amongst bears was “well, they will step in, but much, much lower.” Oh really?
See, it’s never about the level, fucker. It’s about momentum. They weren’t about to let this shit get out of hand, like 2008. That is, without a doubt, not the fucking template for consolidating control. 2008 is a recipe for anarchy.
Oil is +2%, Euro is +1%, US futures are +19 and European markets are indicating +2.2%. It’s melt up day, Gents. The bulls have outflanked the bears and will fuck them from behind (no Greece) tomorrow.
Following the splendid news of a Spaniard bailout (no gladiator), “The Fly” did what any normal, mid-30’s, man of importance and seriousness would do: he took to Twitter to besmirch and denigrate the asshats who are short equities, long doom. I poked and prodded and called for a 1,000 point melt up on Monday morning, even though I know it’s impossible. What’s important for you to remember, when analyzing my thoughts here or on Twitter, is that I enjoy instigating trouble more than offering sage advice.
Here are my true thoughts.
I believe the bailout was necessary for the status quo to remain in place. Whether or not the status quo deserves to stay in place is another story. The only way the power elite will abdicate power is through armed revolt. They gave Spain double the amount that was needed.
What does it mean?
Well, by giving them money with ZERO conditions, it means they are open to the idea of printing money. They cannot keep “lending” money like this and expect to be taken seriously. The only way the market will believe them is when they print money and issue euro-bonds. That is the end game. The ramifications of suchness is another story. Let’s take it one step at a time, shall we?
We shall.
By ring-fencing Greece and Spain, they are hoping Italy will just go away. Frankly, Italy doesn’t need a bailout. Despite what the cognoscenti on Twitter believes, Italy is an immensely rich country. They are able to finance themselves. However, they need rates to come down and fast. The only way that happens: euro-bonds.
I think it’s fair to say, through this surprise action, the central banks are not going to let anyone fail, no matter what. This is reflationary and should bode well for stocks. Remember how well stocks did during POMO? Well, get ready for more of that, then some more.
I know you want things to be different this time; you want it all to end. But it’s never different and it will never end.
The first step of the rally was gold and silver. Money always flows to precious metals at the height of panic to the initial reflation trade. After people realize stocks are going up, they rotate out of precious into tech, industrials and retail. I like tech names, but only a select few. I want to be long names that beat numbers and were dragged in the mud only because of the poor market conditions, which is why I am long NXPI and TDC. Former high fliers like RAX should be avoided until they report a good quarter.
Should this market view the bailout as reflationary, commodities will go bonkers to the upside and heavily shorted names will offer outrageous returns. If we sell off on this news, I will be disappointed, but not surprised. The logical trade is to be long this news; but when was the last time this fucking market made any sense?
There is no debate. You cannot retort with another tale of Greek tragedy. The tables of inequity have turned and it is now you on the run. It is now you who have to watch your home burn to the ground, reduced to smoke and ashes. You must flee your city, else fall victim to the dick guillotines, now in the city square.
I tried to fucking teach you of what was to come, yet you chose to believe in fantasy, worshipping phantasm.
I have a good mind for these sort of things. I can smell a rout when it is near. Heed my dire warnings now, ol’ bearshitter, the pain you are feeling now has only begun. Come next week, it will be unimaginable.
At the time of this post, Plutonium Petey was +3.5% on the day, over 12% for the week.
Back to driving rail spikes through the skulls of the deserving.
You said YELP was going to $00.00, yet here it is whoring its way back to glory–fucking everyone in its path. I held because selling was not an option. Selling was not an option because if I sold and this shit happened, I’d never be able to forgive myself. I couldn’t forgive myself because I’m my harshest critic.
Despite being in the top 1% of income earners in America, I don’t feel a sense of accomplishment. It’s not cliche when I say “I fucking grind”–because I really do.
Here we are, yet again, with the market going the fuck higher, when it’s supposed to be down.
THE SOCIAL MEDIA REVOLUTION IS UPON YOU.
You bet against Facecrook because you thought it was humorous. Those motherfuckers have 900 million customers. They can monetize from now until they end of time, without ever adding another user. Jokes aside, betting against FB is fucking stupid at these levels. Now betting against YELP, one of the premier web properties in the world, is not only stupid, but suicide. I promise you, YELP will make me rich-er one day. You will look back on these lonely, dark days, when the social media experiment was in its nascency, and lament over not buying when they told you to sell.
Those of you new to iBC get confused by my seemingly never-ending manic rages, bull to bear, bear to bull epic clashes– inside a mind of a person with a 155 intelligence quotient. It’s a lonely world having all these crazy ideas bottled up inside of you. At heart, I am a writer. I enjoy making myself laugh, as well as others, with stories of intense absurdity.
Some of these ideas come to me while driving. Mrs. Fly’s uptight demeanor is a very good inspiration, as well as the millions of people around me in NYC.
Each post takes about 10 minutes to write, some are concocted in 5. I always post without proof reading my blogs, staying with my habit of dynamic thought-flow. The blogs are edited after I post, which might confuse some of you with “what the fuck, that wasn’t there two minutes ago” moments. By the time I finish editing my posts, there shouldn’t be any grammatical or syntax errors; however, sometimes a few slip threw.
I exaggerate my emotions to get a rise out of you. I know what blogs will annoy, elate, motivate or conjure up sympathy from my readership. No blog gets published without sharp sarcasm. Nothing is happenstance: I am the Blogfather.
The front page pictures are carefully selected to either convey a message or to enhance the lunacy of my blogs.
At times my blogs are riddles, rarely picked up by any of you. When I poke fun at people it’s rarely a direct assault on a single person; I am way above that. I attack whole continents of people at a time, swaths of idiots across the great plains to the very top of mountain ranges. There must be a clear and present danger to iBC at all times, else life is boring.
Finally, my money management ideas are not intended to be advice for anyone. This is one man’s journal, for better or for worse. I’ve been granted with the gift of having spectacular years on the internets, show casing triple digit returns, as well as mediocre–like the shit you are seeing in 2012. I tell you these things because many of you are blogging for me now. There are over 200 of you in the Blogger Network now, voicing opinions and sharing news. I greatly appreciate your efforts and hope the exposure you get on iBC fulfills some void inside your pathetic lives. HOWEVER, quality is a must when being apart of the #1 finance site in the whole world. I have my people monitoring every single item posted here and names are going down on ledgers, with positive and negative attributes affixed.
Fuck around on iBC and you will get your mustache axed off your gorilla face!
“This is my passion. If you fuck with it, I will burn your house down.”
-Fly, 2003
Big reversal, especially in the NASDAQ. If I was a degenerate OTB guy, today would chagrin me a great deal. I could have sold everything at higher prices and bought FAZ or TZA. Luckily for me, I do not comport myself in such a manner. I will leave the odd lot trading for you and yours. While you’re busy with that, I will be accumulating shares of TEX, MTW, NXPI, YELP, TDC and CLF on dips.
You must understand: I wasn’t scared when the markets were crashing. There is no way in warm hell this shit is scaring me.
We sold the news. Big.Fucking.Deal.
The panickers will panic. The only way I become a seller is if the Europeans cease to help themselves from shooting each other in the faces with trebuchets.
I’d like it very much if the market lifted up by 900 points today, in a concerted effort to eradicate any and all semblances of short sellers. I realize they do the market a service and many of them are my friends. Nevertheless, it’s important that I find an enemy to fixate on at all times, else I get bored. Hence, I’d like to bury them in salt.
I am on the cusp of making so much money, you’re heads are going to fall the fuck off your shoulders.
A small man commented, in one of my previous blogs, an unvarnished truth. He said something along the lines of “yesterday you were a whining little bitch and look at you now.”
Precisely.
That’s how the world works, pal. One minute you’re slipping down a sewer pipe into the abyss below and the next you are kicking someones mustache clean off their face.
I crush skeletons into dust in markets like this.
Without exaggeration, “The Fly” is back in control of his destiny. With 6% year to date gains and 10% cash in reserve, I sense a summer shift coming, one that will be remembered for centuries to come. Your great, great grandkids will read of such tales, “during the summer of 2012 when the Europeans decided to act like men and bail everyone the fuck out for the sake of banking coin” (lots of illogical statements in that last sentence). Men will be made over the next few months and women will go back to cooking me pancakes. By that time, you will be long dead; but your family legacy will live on, as you nailed the summer surge and made trillions of dollars–buying and selling like a crazed arab in a dynamite shoppe.
We’re likely to close at the highs on the Dow. I am fairly certain we are safe today; but I cannot offer similar securities for tomorrow.
Just because Ben didn’t come with his printing presses today and push the market up by another 300, this is reason to be somber? You people are fucking babies. You wan’t everything the easy way, which is why you gravitate to charts. Instead of doing the heavy lifting of research, you look at moronic moving averages and make wild declarations.
The Bearded Clam said a few things, smoked a few blunts, and you’re all pissy about not making ALL OF YOUR MONEY BACK in two days. Well fuck you asshole. The market has been down for 9 FUCKING CONSECUTIVE WEEKS. Pardon the eccentricities of those who have been beaten red to a pulp, wanting to sell on the first lift. There are no guarantees in this business. The market runs on the caprices of others. Never forget that.
Having said that, I am up 2.2% today. Albeit, I was up 3.6% earlier; but you can’t have it all. I am an immensely competitive person, but do not possess the savage greed that many of you have as character traits. I am as patient as an elephant and have no complaints about being up nearly 8% on my AUM over the past two days. My gains are nearing 6% YTD and the wind is behind my sails.
Let the speculators and the vagrants cast their shares aside for dosages of FAZ and TZA. It’s a suckers gamble betting against central banks. They would like very much to keep their heads.
