My Sails Need Wind

I want nothing more than to inflict irreversible damage to those who are short TEA, DECK, CTRP, EXK and DMND. I want the VHC shorts to suffer too; but it’s not time for that show to being just yet. Mind you, the above stocks are big positions of mine, constituting the majority of my trading assets under management. However, I can’t even get excited about their progress thanks to the rakish effects that MRVL is having on my psyche.

I need my balls to swing low and my website to stick spears in the eyes of her enemies. Why, we’re on the verge of revolutionizing iBankCoin to an old school setting and I can’t even get excited about that. The studios at iBC have produced a horror film, for your eyes to behold, and still, I feel nothing but apathy–all thanks and praise to the dickless bastards who are running MRVL into the dirt.

May the Gods of Bones crush their skulls and grind them into dust.

Into the latter hours of the day, my losses are being offset, now down just 1.8%. I have several stocks on my radar worth purchase; but I have no desire to do anything but grow my beard and do push-ups until my arms fall off.

When MRVL was down 50 cents, I laughed at it. When it went down 1 dollar, I got mad, but felt the loss was small. When it went down $1.25, I got annoyed. When it went down $1.50, I was like “what the fuck is going on here?” With it down nearly $2, I want to skin the person who gave this to me alive and eat his liver. I don’t blame anyone for being pissed at MRVL. This is an unmitigated catastrophe. With $5 in net cash, it looks like the market is going to put that cash to the test.

In a market that is going higher, on a perpetual basis, there is nothing dumber than gambling on an earnings play, without an edge. The problem here, folks, I thought I had an edge, when in fact is was a ticking time bomb about to blow up in my face.

My options are simple: sell and move on or buy more.

Here’s the thing, I don’t want to buy more of this cocksucker. The idea of averaging down in this albatross is making me physically sick. On top of that, this fucking VHC is fucking itself and EXK is on siesta. The net result: I am down about 2.25% for the day. It may not sound like much, but on a day when I should be +0.5%, being down is fucking hateful to me.

I’ve been fuckfaced. However, don’t think for a second you can come here, with your stupid ties and ugly shoes, and pile on–as if I was some sort of garden clown in a box filled with water. I will murder you today, virtually and also in real life.

PREPARE FOR MY NEXT “BIG BET” (fucking asshole I am).

I wanted to hit the ground running and dunk shot with MRVL. Before earnings disappointed this evening, I was sitting at my annual highs. Just last week I was contemplating making MRVL a 20% position, until I got cold feet.

Where did the unmarvelous idea of MRVL come from?

It came from a source of mine, who has been useful and resourceful to me in the past. I didn’t do the research, but trusted he did. Apparently, he was wrong, and by extension, so was I.

In hindsight, what was I to do? Should I have ignored his advice, even thought he’s never let me down in the past? He’s served me well in the past, but will now become excommunicated from the House of Fly. I will move on from MRVL and do well. At 12% of my holdings, I am looking at a 1% draw down from my assets in the AM. Given the current state of the market, I might make a good deal of that back in my other positions. Either way, my confidence is not shaken, not in the least.

My EL position was 10% of assets and it ran +6 on an earnings beat earlier this week. Net, net, I am fantastically up for the year (no homo).

Where will I make up the staggering 1% loss from my assets tomorrow?

Well, I have 10% positions in the following:

DECK, EXK, VHC, CTRP and my little TEA is nearing that level soon. Pick one; they’re all going higher.

This is what we do. The business of speculation is never seamless and “sure things” often turn into marvelous jokes.

We move on.

The IT staff, spearheaded by the legendary/world famous Vincenzo Illuminati, are busy at work, redeveloping a final redesign of the iBankCoin site. I invite you to check in, regularly, to bear witness to what they have invented. Like trading, it’s important acknowledge when something isn’t working. In this case, the noise of too much content diluted the sageness and “epicness” of the annointed “tabbed blogger” apparatus.

iBankCoin will never go mainstream. You will never see our faces on the teevees, not because we are ugly, but because they are ugly.

I’ve decided to hold a 12% weighting in MRVL into earnings, and not go full retard in the name. Although my information and research is second to none, it goes against everything I believe in to bet on a singular event, like an earnings release. Nevertheless, with $5 in net cash, I have good reason to believe the company has adopted an aggressive share buy back program, which may have boosted earnings for the quarter. I will be a buyer into weakness.

Ten minutes to the bell, I am +2.2% for the day, pressing my annual highs of +25%–confident in my long only stance thanks to the collapse of bonds, evidenced by the pinless hand grenade action in TLT. I am going to leave you with a picture of my time machine. Take it to heart when I say “you have nothing on me.” My sources of information are second to none and my algorithms shit on your faces.

NOTE: This is the ledger inside of The PPT. On 7/24, the Overall Hybrid score was flagged OVERSOLD on a 3 and 6 month time frame. The result has been nothing less than stellar–preserving a flawless track record of 6 instances up zero down, upon triggering this sublime and immensely valuable signal.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yY_3sSzPPKI

You know I was a big advocate for YELP, holding it from $21 to $31, back down to $14, then up to $27. Alongside WNR, it has been my biggest winner for 2012. However, recent events in the social media space has given me caution with YELP, specific to lock up periods expiring and out of sync valuations. Without a doubt, YELP is certainly a takeover candidate, but so is everyone else. Aren’t they?

Have a look at some price to sales ratios in the social media space, courtesy of The PPT.

Now let’s sort by market cap.

Notice anything odd?

Fucking YELP, PANW and LNKD are trading at extreme p/s valuations. All three stocks can get cut in half and still be overvalued, when compared to some of the bigger companies in the space. 5x sales seems to be a reasonable place for these stocks to base out. If that’s the case, The FuckBook aka Facebook is heading to $10.

Naturally, we need to give a premium to smaller cap names, due to chances of a buyout. Also, in the case with YELP, it is growing at a 70% clip. I think a “fair” price to sales ratio for YELP, given the compression of valuations in the space, is about 7x sales–matching the valuation of TRIP–another Fly favorite.

In short, I believe YELP is being propped up by hopes and dreams. If anything derails for YELP, if GOOG develops a kick-ass FREE app for Zagat, the stock is heading for the low teens, maybe $12.

Being that I was such a big supporter of the name for so long, I felt it to be an appropriate gesture by me– to offer an explanation– as to why I am no longer invested in YELP or remotely interested.

I started a position in DMND, with every intention of inflicting severe damage to those fuckers who are short walnuts.

You’re gonna love my nuts.

We’ve cast away the leaches and the swine, faux allies pretending to like us. There will not be any “joint marketing” plans and I won’t hold my tongue for the sake of some out of touch corporate sponsor. As discussed in the previous post, iBankCoin is going old school, real old, and I will not tolerate any form of disrespect (no StockTwits).

Markets are ripping. What you see in front of your faces is the reason why I opted not to short. Stocks climbing, after chilling out stupid for the past few days. Who would’ve known, besides me?

The CSCO news bodes well for other networkers, like JDSU, FNSR, RVBD, CIEN and contract manufacturer JBL.

I’m sitting here all morning, mustering up the courage to overweight MRVL into earnings, due out tonight. As of now, it’s a 12% position. I am tempted to go 20%, guns blazing, RPG on my back, suicide vest on my chest.

Silver stocks are acting better, but still not great. EXK is my largest position; but I would not add to it here. Instead, look to CTRP (cheap chinese burrito capable of doubling) off the back of the SINA numbers or DECK.

DECK can easily go FOSL on shorts if the winter starts early. Winter is coming, small plebs from the internets. Prepare yourselves.

Several months ago, I had an unnamed member of the iBC board monitor many of you, especially those participating in the Blogger Network (@ibc_bn). Since the redesign of iBC, I’ve ceded control of the content of this site to you, the people, to do as you like. Between news (@ibc_fn) and blogger network posts, myself and the think tank/legendary tabbed blogger apparatus has been relegated to a very minor role in this blogging experiment.

During the annual iBC dinner, this topic, AND MORE, was broached. Unanimously, the board of directors of iBankCoin despises all of you, begging me to “take action quickly” and send you to the “cellars”, cordoned off from the rest of society. However, as ally and dear friend, I defended you, suggesting “give them another chance because things will get better.”

The gentlemen of iBC left the annual dinner with half smoked pipes and heads filled with anger, steaming from the state of affairs at iBankCoin.

This afternoon, news arrived at my desk, a full report, detailed and comprehensive, from that unnamed board member who was tasked with monitoring you. It is a very bleak read, indeed.

“sporadic posting, skimpy, no attempt to build readership, very mediocre overall”

“no charisma, lets his blog go stale, mediocre drivel”

“lets his blog go stale and even when active simple portfolio updates every few days with some media”

“simple portfolio updates, no kind of analysis”

“all politics, terrible”

“mediocre content, very high maintenance personality not worth the trouble even if consistent poster”

“lacking charisma, no consistent reader following built up, very plain vanilla overall”

“mediocre content, tries too hard for style that comes off as very unnatural, dilutes the major iBC blogs by attempting to mimic”

“simple portfolio updates with very little, if any, actual analysis of market & positions, not up to iBC standards or anywhere close”

“tries way too hard to mimic “The Fly” style–dilutive to iBC brand in that regard, insufficiently focused blog posts”

“nice guy but just cannot get any kind of readership, tries too hard for style points”

“ALL politics, No market. Outside the scope of iBC, terrible”

“terrible, makes a mockery of financial blogging”

“funny commenter on main iBC blogs but not much of a blogger in his own right, insufficiently focused writing, scatterbrained, cannot even capitalize a title”

“lets his blog go stale, decent if he could be consistent but looks to have thrown in the towel“

Mind you, this is just a small portion of the report. When I said “we are watching you,” I was not jesting.

Effective rather immediately (or tomorrow), the iBC cognoscenti, equity partners of the site, will take back what is rightfully theirs, by law. The front page of the site will be reserved for the gentlemen of iBC (crowd filled with plebs bursts into uproar, angry over new law). The news and blogger network will be relegated to their own respective pages and not the cellars, like the board recommended. I fight for you even to this day!

It’s important to remember, more than anything else: I am the Blog Father, ordained in the fires of the market, raised and bled in the vagrancy of Brooklyn, NY. The message is clear: mediocrity will no longer be tolerated at iBankCoin (angry board members stand up and applaud, shouting “here, here” while stomping canes into the ground). I am taking this site old school, real old, when the primary focus was about making money, not giving a fuck about traffic stats or keeping up with the IT homosexuals from San Fransicko.

With this stick, I offer you a singular carrot. As the blogger network gets superannuated to its own page, away from the iBC board, I am going to pluck one of you out, to become a staff writer, given “tabbed blogger” status, and possibly invited to an annual dinner one day. There are several of you who exhibit rare talent and should be given a bigger stage. My advice to you all is to deport yourself with a dignified air and bring your A game when pen goes to pad on iBC, with respect to grammar, punctuation and most certainly accuracy of market calls.

I bid you good evening.

If you shorted stocks yesterday, you feel stupid today. It’s the classic “if to then” relationship that you’ve yet to master.

I will have you know, “The Fly” reigns supreme in this regard, fully aware, cognizant, of future events–near and far. For example, I know that if I take a position in MRVL, then I will make money later. To put matters plainly with you, pay close attention to what I am about to tell you.

Are you still with me?

Good.

I changed my mind and will not explain anything to you. Frankly, I do enough around these parts, having to deal with cretins from the sewer, losers who are all in short walnut companies.

Look, my time is extremely valuable, more so than you can begin to understand. We are in a long only tape, with an emphasis on cash and selling into rips to protect accounts going into September.

Good day you. I am off to do something very important.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USSez4WbAM8

I added to my manly position in DECK.