Look, don’t think about this sell off with any sense of seriousness. Thanksgiving is around the corner and idiots are shooting 1950’s style artillery shells at one another. People get nervous, so they sell.
On the other hand, retail is robust, thanks to the JCG buyout. I will continue to add to my retail holdings, with the delusional hopes that I too can catch a bid. Stocks like PSUN and LIZ are turn around stories. Private equity loves a good turn around story. FTK is on some sort of wild goose hunt for short sellers. Clearly, ALL OF YOU MOTHERUFUCKERS WHO MOCKED ME, for owning 2 million shares, WERE WRONG. I told you before, “those who laugh last do so with great conviction.” So you know, I am laughing at you now, all of you.
Fuck the crazy Koreans: I want to be long CIEN, as margins improve, PSUN, LIZ, THQI and REXX for a sqeeeeze.
NOTE: Great job to the 12631 trading group. You guys are fucking killing it.
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Gobble fuckin Gobble!
gobble mother fucker. and yes ftk does rock
jinks
I’m with you on that PSUN and LIZ.
Magical –
Fly, admit it. You were luckier than a red-assed pig on FTK. When it
hit a buck back in July, it just as easily could have gone to ZERO rather
than the almost 4 it was today.
That would have been devastating to your brokerage career, and might
have been the end of this blog as well.
Please tell us you weren’t scared shitless when FTK hit a buck for the
SECOND time withing a one-year period.
If I was scared, then explain why I was buying at $1.04. I was never scared. Quit projecting your cowardice on me.
FTK is a total piece of shit and a very bad trade for a very long time
It’s still in the process of a huge short squeeze off of the massive short % of the float
I think all of us who have followed the Fly in the PPT on this trade have learned a lot about the amount of effort it takes to pull off a huge win like this. I can understand that we might think he would have been scared at times– but I sure never saw that– but rather I realized over time the incredible amount of work he put into the trade in terms of understanding the company. And then the amount of thought he put into strategy to get to the point where he is now– with such a huge win. I didn’t see any bit of luck in in at all.
But your post on FTK did make me think what has stood out more than anything with this FTK trade and Fly.
It has been his integrity. Old school, “the real thing”, integrity. With his clients, with us his PPT community, and with the company itself.
Thinking about it now, I thought I had learned the most about patience and conviction with a trade while following the FTK trade– but no, I learned about how you can turn what might look or feel like a really bad situation into a win for all involved (other then those who were short FTK….).
How does he not get scared? I’m not sure- probably because he is so seasoned and knows what he is doing. (If you’re open to it, consider joining the PPT for a month to see what I’m talking about. The guy is the biggest workaholic I ever saw- and I’ve known some major corporate workaholics)
You forgot to mention that this FTK trade also proves that Fly is a championship tennis player, in addition to being a zen master of integrity, patience, and conviction. Yes, the trade worked out to be a winner. It’s a low dollar stock, prone to big snap moves, so that happens. But using the win to retroactively make all these inferences is a little dangerous, and really is just a huge “correlation vs causality” misunderstanding, wrapped in a bow.
I’ve been a member of the PPT since Feb 2009 and have followed Fly’s trades, analyses, and explanations within the PPT the whole time. I can say without doubt that Fly is a person of integrity. The way he handled the whole situation with FTK was just another confirmation. For me, it helps me stay in trading (rather then just throw in the towel) that the guy running the trading communities I’m in (PPT and 12631) is a person of integrity. (Can’t speak to the tennis or zen skills)
It’s not like he just sucked his thumb and hid in the corner when the stock was hitting a buck, he was on the phone with the damn CFO trying to figure out if it was a viable going concern…and his decision to accumulate made a lot of money for his clients and PPT subscribers. How you see an opportunity to call him a lucky pig after a successful trade like that says a lot more about you than it does him….what a snide, gutless comment to make.
In addition to other more important things already mentioned, I think most likely there was no leverage involved. He could hold on as long as the conviction was there. Compare that to a simple long option position, where one can be correct about the move, but still bleed to death.
It should have been dumped a long time ago.
Never hold onto and especially never average down on a loser.
Luck is great but not a strategy.
It’s not luck when you know it will happen.
You are wrong. No luck at all.
Red-Assed pig??? you’re an asshole.
Anyway, the scoreboard doesn’t lie: Fly and FTK = banking coin; you and your bullshit = goose-egg
Uhm (sorry about bringing up a bad trade, Fly, I’m doing it to make a point) – you’re clearly not familiar with the scope of Fly’s operation; based on what Fly said in the past couple of months, his realized losses in a bad VXX trade were probably bigger than his exposure to FTK, and that was devastating to neither his career or his website(s). I’m sure it would have been unfortunate and not welcomed had FTK gone to zero, but I doubt it would have been fatal. you don’t know what you’re talking about.
Re FTK – I don’t do stock picking, so I’m not qualified to judge if this was calculated or luck, but it doesn’t make any difference from where I’m sitting. There’s nothing wrong with a little luck helping you along from time to time. Remember, fortune favors the prepared 🙂 It’s either an example of Fly’s ability to pick stocks or to make his own luck. If you were one of his investors, would you care about the how, or just take the ‘how much’?
Exactly…
riggedgame: Would have, could have, ifs, mights don’t count. Its all about what happens in the end, in this case it was an egregious amount of coin. Devastating to his brokerage career? Fly was up plenty when FTK hit $1. I hardly call that devastating. FYI John Paulson looked like an idiot shorting sub prime until all of the sudden he had gold bars coming out of his pockets and everyone else was left wondering what happened.
Tonight on fast money–Guy Adami bearish, Brian Kelley bullish.
While Najarian talks about selling “front month iron condor call put spreads” for 2013
As far as N Korea goes-
That May torpedo incident was far worse,in terms of casualties,and being unprovoked.If that never triggered war,why would this incident do so?
Civilian casualty(ies) > Military casualties.
nice job on ftk fly. don’t go blowing all those winnings. it’s amateur hour for the rest of the week. i see chop fest.
Seriously, Kanye West owes you several dollars worth of commision. I’ve downloaded all of them after hearing them here first (and I actually pay for them, unlike many).
I will send Kanye my invoice shortly.
What the hell is going on with cloud service stocks like CRM, CTCT, SAAS? Everyone else was down today.
They started going parabolic as people flowed into what was winning. Don’t worry they will end badly. However I would not be shorting CTXS, they really are doing business. RVBD and FFIV are shit though in my expert (technical) opinion.
What’s your technical beef with FFIV? I run a couple of complex SaaS solutions and they work flawlessly. I can’t think of anyone else in that business who offers a better product.
Happy Thanksgiving to all. The Steve family is taking off for Grandma Steve’s house and hopefully this year she remembers that the dishwasher is not the oven. And Neighbor Fly thanks for picking up the mail and feel free to use the spare key and help yourself to some of Mrs. Steve’s leftover matzoh ball soup. The Steve family is thankful this Thanksgiving for having the Fly family as neighbors notwithstanding the occasional firecrackers going off in the early hours and the dead lawn.
Grudgingly lower. The selling lacked pizazz.
The URRE btfo call at $2.51 today by RC was downright prescient.
What Lindsy said! It’s a shame some people don’t know that this isn’t a tale of a fantastic investment. But rather how an adept manager takes a losing position, and over time, not only salvages it, but turns it into a win.
OPEN is a bear killer
For fook sake I hate this stock, although I did get out of my long puts with a small profit back in October. I just don’t understand how a dinner reservation website could be worth $1.5 billion when it’s doing like $75 million in revenue. I must be missing something.
Please help me understand how The Fly could accumulate such a huge position (FTK) in a $2.00-3.00 stock without distorting the demand curve.If he’s the main (maybe only) buyer driving the price up, how can he be sure there will be other buyers around when he’s ready to get out? It seems to have clearly worked since there are buyers now when he’s unwinding his position.
Because i accumulated the stock over 1.5 years from 2.60 down to 1.04. Someone had to carry the idiots who were selling.
Thanks Fly. I understand now.
The only issue I have with your Turkey Day thesis is lack of POMO activity until next Monday.
However, I do understand that one of the biggest shopping days of the year is Friday and the G men want the market up to ensure consumers feel confident to boost retail consumption.
Perhaps there will be a backdoor market pump, with a vacation week there should be less activity which should make it easier to pump it up and squeeze the shorts.
Dont be so stupied, market has been done for this year!
Last few years We have been see a lot of oportunities on othef markets
Patience, perseverance, and conviction. Well done sir…well done indeeud.
Uranium Resources, Inc., LNG Good stuff. Made out nicely today on a speculative pick from the weekend. URZ also also had mad volume today. I want to say one word to you Just one word. Are you listening? Uranium. You can make electricity from it or hurl it at your enemies.
Guys if you have not checked out the new 12631 site yet you really need to. So much great info in there. RC and Chess are KILLING the retail trade, major winners today in retail were all called in that room. I personally traded AEO from RC’s call yesterday and it coined today in this bad tape. Seriously its sick. Oh and if you were wondering what 12631 means it pretty much translates into M O N E Y. By the way you DO NOT need to be a momentum trader to get killer insight from the site, although you might start getting addicted to momo trading after watching these guys pocket cash.
Listen up folks. I’ve been knowing Fly for going on 5 years. Found his original blog due to MVIS.
Say what you want, but he has the strongest conviction of anyone you will ever meet. If he sets his sights on something, he will not relent until his goals are met. He also has incredible patience.
If you combine these qualities with professional money management skills, a trade like FTK does not seem so extraordinary. Yes, for the average piker, it seems unbelievable. Never, during the whole time he owned FTK, were his client’s accounts in danger. To suggest so is insane. A professional does not risk his entire livelihood on one trade. A professional would not allocate that much capital to one position.
Some of you seem to think that because he blogs that he is somehow less; some of you think that his braggadocio must mean that he is disingenuous at times. You’re wrong.
Ha! I bought FTK in the Summer of ’09 based on what I read here and I haven’t even looked at it since (retirement acct). I’m up $2 on a $1 stock. Hahahah. Is it time to sell? Hard to believe.
get off FTK , Fly only human but a super fly, he did booked a loss on VXX after a huge gain on VXX so move on people…
The Fly said:
“It’s not luck when you know it will happen.”
That’s the problem with Wall St these days. Too many people know too much info. The PPT is just another sniper machine thats used to pick off inexperienced traders caught on the wrong side of the trade.
What are you guys gonna do when there are no suckers left to pick off?
Tom,
The problem is never knowing too much. It’s always the opposite.
Re: suckers – there’s one born every minute.
Good news! Being a sucker can be a temporary situation
Stop whining and get into the game.
Sucker born every minute.
The fact is that The Fly you know only out here on the ibc blog is quite different from The Fly inside the PPT. As such, I can understand where those who follow this blog but have never been inside the PPT feel as they do. Fly knows it and does it on purpose because it’s fun. He can be one Fly here and another Fly there. He will deny it when he sees this post and I will giggle.
Regarding FTK, we make our own choices and I happened to decide to finally follow Fly into FTK two days before it popped. The time was right and as such I am enjoying immense gains in FTK because I followed Fly, but for me the trade only started 2 weeks ago.
The short of it is, the comments of those who don’t know Fly on the inside are superfluous. I have no time for such nonsense and am enjoying egregious gains in 12631 as well, like a one day trade for +10% and that was TODAY. At the end of the day, I looked over my mixed tape portfolio….about half green and half red. That’s right, I wasn’t even down today, and none of this would be possible without The Fly.
the wife
Giggle all you want.
The algos are going to destroy the stock market because Main St will get tired of getting heir balls chopped off by the computers.
They will not come back for a generation because no one will trust it. I know many who already have “walked away” from it for good.
There is no such thing as investing anymore. It’s a huge scam where computers make 11 second trades and pick off people who are on the wrong side of the trade.
Fundementals, P/E’s mean nothing anymore. This game Star Wars works for now but it is destroying investor confidence.
More and more people are beginning to realize that the market is made up of nothing but a bunch of little black boxes that pick off one another. Spoke to a credit trader about it tonight. Wall St will never be the same after this crap.
Show me a good loser, and I’ll show you,
a loser.
don’t let the door hit your vaj on the way out.
OMG IT’S ARMAGEDDON!
hahaha…whimp!
The Fly completely rocks. He probably out-studies and out-works everybody who sees this site. When he wins, there’s a reason. He does more research than you do, or I do, or practically anybody does. You would have to be a moron not to watch, listen, and learn from what he’s doing.
True indeud!