Do not confuse the shit you read here, on this Godly site, to true investor sentiment. I hear a lot of “well, everyone is bearish, so we must go up” jargon. First of all, that’s an idiotic statement. Secondly, it’s a fucking lie. Take iBC as a cross-section of investor sentiment. Basically, everyone but me and Gio, who has been AWOL for weeks, has been bullish on this tape. Granted, HOLLY-Woodshedder and Chess are somewhat cautious, but not nearly as bearshittery as HORATIO CLAWHAMMER aka “The Fly.”
It’s important to know who you are and avoid fighting it. I am HORATIO CLAWHAMMER and I am here to bash in your skulls.
As an aside, I’d like to punch the livers out of all tech stocks, trading with p/s ratios above 10. Seriously, fuckface, these valuations WILL NOT last: I fucking guarantee it.
Having said that, never heed my advice. Instead, seek the counsel of your local fucktarded money manager, as he will goose step alongside all of the other little lemmings, all the way to Dow 14,000. As for me, I upped my TLT exposure to 25% of assets today.
I spit on your person. I spit on your future graves.
Signed
H.C.
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Tulipmania
fig
What are you saying? Buy more VXX?
Waiting anxiously, while banking more coin…..
Strangely, I’ve been in FFIV and RVBD since mid-May, GOOG, BIDU since end of August, and AKAM since early August.
This does remind me a little of the good ol’ days of the tech boom, but we must go further in pushing against the stratosphere on this thing.
Kamikaze pilots, banzai!
FUNNEL TIME
I’m in Florida. It’s about as bullish as a Rocky Mountain Oyster eating contest here. (i.e. depends on the point of view … are you the diner or the dinner?)
Dr. Fly,
You are too excited on .5% down move.
Take it easy: 2% up and .5% doesn’t really do much for VXX or TZA.
Good call on TLT though.
I wrote this blog when the mkt was up
Yeah?
2Pac wrote in ’94
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSXmJrQcwjo
great vid
piss on yours
Today, Mr. Market did not give up a huge chunk of Friday’s gains.
Tomorrow we have GS chain store sales, Case-Schiller Home Price Index and consumer confidence reports topping the list. Plus it’s “turnaround Tuesday”.
Anybody’s guess.
I still like my tech stocks.
My God people…for once think for yourselves…
I have been waiting for this day for many moons. My brother in arms is back. Let’s get back to deballing men in tight green jumpsuits
Oh my. You see JT it’s all very complicated. The bears are waiting like snipers. The will “fire” when no one is expecting. It all has to do with who is pushing the little or should I say big buttons. I mean they even think they can fire Santa Clause. Well, I’m here to tell you that the good people always win. So take heart, then curse whomever suits your fancy. We’ll get through this, but in the meantime, keep writing and don’t be afraid to speak your mind because I’m sure that I speak for all…we are very interested in the way you perceive such goings-on. You definitely have it right. It’s a confusing, algorithmic, cluster truck. So hold on to your freedom in the form of green paper, we are riding in the truck behind the driver, open back without a harness through the muddy, ditch enhanced field of Wall Street.
I just vomited a little
We all did sweetie! Just remember you have to be “this tall” to ride!
All hail the return of Horatio Clawhammer.
Indeud!
+1
PS – Short BIDU for the VXX TeeShirt [Sic] contest… not working out so hot today but I think we have till mid October no?
I too have been very incorrectly bearish lately. Way underwater on TZA. I think I will go buy a whole bunch of HND now.
The Fly never sleeps.
“I hear a lot of “well, everyone is bearish, so we must go up” jargon. First of all, that’s an idiotic statement”
def not the most idiotic statement one could make, if you factor in how god-awfully stoops the teevee talking heads are.
I’ve been thinking if we’re near an April like inflection point. Look at this price action comparing 9/20 bar to 4/14 bar. Similar, fo sho
But it hasn’t come in yet. The selling, that is.
Today’s reversal couldn’t even ding the lower end of Friday’s busta-a-move. Really gonna have to show 1125 who’s boss if the downside argument is gonna gain traction here.
We ARE at a point where we can rest/reverse/you name it. But there are other clues that we can press up in the coming weeks towards 1200, and so far, that side is still the clear victor.
There is no bearish argument, technically. However, I am not concerned with the short term “look”.
yeah I know.
I mean big picture, I challenge anyone to explain how we arent effed in the a
Long term we are going to buy all of South America’s resources, in exchange for $50 trillion newly printed dollars. And then we are going to blockade South America so they can’t cash in.
Everything will be great, as all debt will then be extinguished for raw materials, with zero inflationary pressure on the dollar, and mass price deflation in the material spaces. Life will be grand…unless you are Brazilian, in which case thanks for the slave labor, it was sweet.
Unless you consider the Elliott Wave boy’s charting, it won’t be long.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_mNgsiAj3Xko/TKD94Ael9PI/AAAAAAAADos/o5D5RwaLWJE/s1600/spx-27-2.png
I not saying…I’m just saying.
There is no unit of measurement for how little of fucks I could give for anything relating or pertaining to EW analysis.
The only thing those boys can hang their hat on is that price moves in waves, and everyone knows that. Most of them at the end of the day cannot trade themselves out of a wet paper bag with a knife.
but in the interest of objectively looking at things, I always appreciate any side or view of an argument, so thanks for the link
(laughter) It’s like saying you can model any set of data as a Fourier Series. It doesn’t help you much unless the process you’re working with is physical (or is a similar 99th percentile recurrence problem) to the point of being testable.
I didn’t say I buy it… I have friends who trade only EW, none of which make any money. I have other friend who use EW along side other technicals and trade successfully. The most honest thing I have ever heard an EW trader say is: “It works perfectly 25% of the time.”
Why didn’t you buy EDV or ZROZ instead of TLT if it’s just a trade? Surely you don’t need the whooping 3.66% interest.
TLT is way more liquid and I do like the monthly divis.
volume
why wouldnt you want 3.6% interest?
The “shia labeouf top” is upon us. The November election rally is done. Market has priced in republican victory, and now all catalysts are in the dollar’s favor. Even this guy’s war profiteer fund agrees that the dollar will benefit hugely from any mideast conflict.
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2010/09/27/betting-on-the-bomb/
I spit on your grave…coming soon! Oct 8
http://movies.yahoo.com/movie/1810148549/info
“savage and unrelenting”
That was an ugly close. It may not mean much in the grande scheme of things over the last few weeks, but today’s traders “shit the shower”, to bring back a godly phrase.
The name of HORATIO CLAWHAMMER is always typed in all caps. Good day.
Investing 101
1. People are liars
note: if this is true, you better do your homework.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/09/you-vs-corporations/
As you say Fly, party doesn’t matter … Mussolini was on the Bd of Dir, no?
> The deindustrialization of the United States should be a top concern for every man, woman and child in the country. But sadly, most Americans do not have any idea what is going on around them. <
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/deindustrialization-factory-closing-2010-9#ixzz10lm06iv8
Hence the opposition to bailing out the auto industry … Without the auto factories WWII may have been lost.
The problem with the bailing out of the auto industry is that the auto industry had become financial institutions themselves; making cars as a side job. Cars are not made anymore to be sold at a profit. They are made to be financed.
Not sure what is the current situation. Not sure Detroit knows either…
Detroit, for its part, has not learned its lesson at all. The recent suggestions of the council up until this last year have been akin to the same drab maneuvers they’ve done up until now. They were hoping to just stick with what worked in the past. But, thanks to overpowering labor unions and high industrial taxes, they’re having trouble competing for companies with the rest of the country, who, given the times, are more than happy to cut taxes for jobs.
I do like the new mayor, Mr. Bing, though. He’s actually friendly to business and has a brain that doesn’t entail stagnating social programs and blowing money frivilously.
He also used to have one helluva jump shot.
Maybe Detroit hasn’t but the auto industry has. The old boy network is gone and suppliers are impressed with the managements of Ford, GM and even Chrysler. Higher standards are being demanded and suppliers that can’t meet the expectations are being dropped like hot potatoes. No longer do the assembly lines just push out product non-stop to keep the union labor working rather than standing around being paid for nothing. Inventory isn’t allowed to build up to extremes at plants or dealerships – it’s more of a just-in-time or made to order mentality now.
If these guys are profitable in a near depression – what might they do when the economy and employment improves?
I have two connections; one tells me Chrysler is about to blow the top off consumer reports but is consequentially losing their program system (i just know the phonetics, it’s KATIA [sic]) for which they might have a mutiny. I guess Congress was dumb and mandated a complete integration with Fiat, which uses Unigraphics, so Chrysler is getting cut back about a decade in terms of design capability. The other is telling me GM is still the same old arrogant corporation and that their employees haven’t learned a thing. The source is from Ford, though, so he’s a little biased.
Not what a heard in a vendors earnings call … they were very upbeat about the big three but of course they are kowtowing to the analysts. From the transcript:
“We’re excited about what’s happening in Detroit with the big three. We see a better run auto industry, fewer suppliers, and that means we are in the right position at the right time.”
“… what’s interesting is I don’t think these companies have these big inventories they used to have before; build the cars and stick them in the lots. They don’t stick them in the lots. So it’s pretty good, there is a tighter feeling about this industry. And you’re not getting sales now that are going to taken away from you in the third, fourth and first quarter of next year.’
” It’s very active again, interesting enough even a company of that size [GM] the doors are open, they are looking for long term relationships here and qualified suppliers, as they look into the supply base, it all look[s] different. ”
” So we are excited about the big three. They are being run better, the doors are opened. I am excited about that; we should be, because we’ve got a big investment in it. ”
This vendor is tight with Ford and Chrysler and had nothing but praise for both. They left the impression that they would be doing business with GM soon …
“… we have a wonderful relationship with Ford and with Chrysler, and interesting you would bring up GM. That’s our penetrating and increasing with them is the goal in the auto business. Although we do very well within some of the manufactured products, but we’ll be talking more about that company and that relationship as we go forward. “
CATIA is their CAD program by Dassault Systems which they’ve been using for 20yrs – Fiat uses NX by Siemens.
> CEO Sergio Marchionne wants everyone in his domain to use the Siemens software for new projects. Unfortunately, the problem goes well beyond just switching out the software at the Chrysler tech center. Suppliers will also have to buy new software because they share design models with the automaker and they need compatibility. Chrysler has begun using the Siemens software for the modifications to the North American version of the Fiat 500, but it could be some time before the issue is resolved completely. <
Integration problems … to be expected.
http://www.autoblog.com/2010/05/04/chrysler-split-over-which-cad-software-to-use/
I hereby mandate they all use microsoft paint.
DuPont’s paint is far superior.
Consumer Report Issues:
http://www.allpar.com/cr.html
> I guess Congress was dumb and mandated a complete integration with Fiat, which uses Unigraphics, so Chrysler is getting cut back about a decade in terms of design capability. <
LOL … your kidding right?!?!
No, although I don’t know for sure it’s unigraphics, now that I think about it.
As zortrades mentioned today, the last 4 times AIG spiked like it did today, the market promptly….well you get the picture
It’s the old addage that “shit floats to the top” just prior to the reversal.
It doesn’t get much shittier than AIG.
Fly, I think anybody investing money with you should pull out immediately. Not just you but anyone who likes to fight with the market gods. Market gods are clearly pointing to higher closes everyday into the final quarter of 2010. Hope to see you on the other side
Hey Boy Trader! You talk like you swing a big dick!
Perhaps the right analogy and perfect “segway” was provided by the owner of the company by the same name, as he motored right off a cliff.
I will wait to see what tomorrow brings, POMO POMO POMO POMO. As there are no human traders and only robots price is what they want it to be with round tripping, 40X leverage, and POMO. By now I hope you have tweeked your PPT algorithm for POMO days.
Yield to high dividend stocks.
Boy trader
I was up 27% in 2007, 60% in 2008, 90% in 2009 and up 28% ytd. If you were my client, would you pull out?
That’s a bullshit question. BoyTrader doesn’t have two nickels to rub together and therefore could never be your client.
hee, hee, Fly do not be too hard on Boy Trader, for he is just young and inexperienced who has not had his cherry popped yet.
I always pull out
I would seriously think about it starting now… Market has been up over 10% while you’re still drumming about going short / fighting trend
You’re bannee
I like to leave it in until I’m told to take it out ….
Ever wonder what TK thinks about the markets, especially now?
wonder what devildog think about the markets?
Devil who? ( I hope he covered.)
When it comes, it’s going to be an overnighter monster gapper and all will say……DAMN! DAMN! DAMN!…I knew I should of shorted that lunacy when I had the chance.
Hey guys – I’m a reader not commentator. History question for you, please:
15 or so years ago I read a quote about what drives stock markets. I’m writing a report and trying to remember the author and book.
The quote was something along the lines of : Stocks only go up when there’s firepower. The moment somebody buys a stock they’ve used up their firepower so all they can do is keeping talking and trying to convince other people to buy it. But once everybody’s bought, then everybody is bullish and louder than ever, but there’s no firepower left to push up the stock.
Anybody remember the author of that quote? I thought it was Peter Lynch but can’t find it as I flip through One Up on Wall Street
I doubt Peter Lynch would have said that (running Fidelity Magellan Fund at that time).
It sounds like something Elaine Garzarelli or Victor Sperandeo (TraderVic) would have said at that time.
Possibly, Martin Zweig.
Dude- thank you – you’re right – it was Zweig
It wasDavid Lynch who explained this mindf___k of a market best
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZ3pSzyqb3c#t=1m10s
Listen to this man, this Fly. He knows what he speaks of.
Tweetaleedoo to you!
I am a big fan of caine thaler, truth be told.
Graci
mr. fly, you will be proved correct in dramatic fashion….when is the big unknown
Classic Fly
Keep em coming
Hoping to buy QID on a bounce tomorrow.
What happens if Fly places top ten for the VXX contest? Do you get to keep one of your own t-shirts? Or will you pass it along to #11?
The Fed must be examined – kick the door down if necessary, http://www.dailybail.com/home/the-fed-under-fire
They took it down already.
The article. Not the door to the FED.
been long tmf fpr a bit now at 45 n change. Around 20 percent TMF, 15 percent qid, 30 tza (currently offside). Hope you are right FLY you generally are
Seems to me, the mkt is going down tomorrow.
Tonight’s post is about a fat guy even the Magistrate could love.
Especially on his jaunts to the Short Hills Mall.
_________
The market cannot trade down as we have the Bearded Clamfucker put to protect us from losses.
It would be such a totally cool birthday present if it’s tomorrow…it’s what I asked the stock gods for…btw just saw Wall Street 2…too much family stuff and young guy is no fisherman…just bait….we know fellow junkies a mile away.,,,nice to see GG though
Well, Nymph, Happy Birthday! As Fly once said, you’re an asset to this community. I couldn’t agree more. Rejoice with your fellow bear cubs and celebrate this day well!
Nymph happy birthday. You know junkies don’t make money. But they are happy anyway…cuz they find happiness in junkiness. Long live the Nympho.
WTF and StockRider….Thank you WTF, I shall….party in the cave, lol. StockRider…thank you, and finding ones passion in life is the true treasure..and omg, talk about Stock Junkie Paradise..just about 15 minutes ago I got an em from Jim Rogers saying HB….that is priceless to me and so beyond totally cool.
Sir Fly:
I apologize for not posting on a more regular basis.
I do, however, totally agree with your general sentiments.(not to mention your general mastery of communication via the Internets!)
I raved about gold and other hard assets a long time ago.
To put it simply…………..the deal is, now, there is no deal.
Capital preservation, via hard assets, seems to be making more sense all the time (to me).
I see this market re-testing the 6500 level, at bare minimum. Timing, of course, is everything.
The American dream is over.
Buy some guns, and plenty of ammo.
Get away from population centers, and learn how to use a chainsaw…..like a STIHL or Husquie. Then kill a deer, and hang the sons-of-bitch in your cold shed….so you can eat and/or trade the meat to feed your family.
We have passed beyond the onward and upward sector, it’s time to prepare for survival.
The middle class is something of the past.
Deal with it.
I am so glad I am not living in an urban jungle,(mmmm…. like New York)
Low or High? God Bless you folks, oh my, my.
Things are so much worse than I ever even dreamed that they would be 18 months ago.
I LOVE things a like free speech (i.e, The Fly and IBC) and our country SO MUCH, but, hey…why not build a mosque at ground zero to appease and please the public-school indoctrinated youth that make up our nieces and nephews??
THE MARKET IS GOING TO DO A MAJOR……….
Slurpy and burpy, turd-roller move.
Also known as, a serious market valuation reality. If you know what I mean!?
Beyond that………….
The Fly is THE MAN!!
HIS BALLS OF STEEL WILL BE REWARDED!!
-Damon
Damon, do you know how to light a fire using two flint stones?
Yes, rider…I just use my BALLS.
fuck yeah! you are ready for doomsday! I will need to borrow your balls btw, cuz mine are stuck in a few crazy longs and shorts.
Look at the performance of fringe emerging markets ytd:
Indonesia +33..6%
Philippines +30.4%
Thailand +25.7%
China -20.7%
@Po Pimp
-What’s going on over there and where’s the money flowing? They all driving around in fucking Knight Rider replicas and shit?
Let’s just say these are some of the most corrupt governments on errf and some of the most stupid populations as well. You think the USA is corrupt and stupid? You ain’t seen nothing until you venture over here.
Have not seen any Knight Rider replicas, but did see a schmooove Batmobile replica a few months back.
Thanks. Any industries drawing heavy attention? Manufacturing? USD/THB has recently been going down.
Whorin’ is still doing good as an industry.
Real hmmm
Dont forget malaysia
Malaysia has its share of corruption as well, but overall it’s much better than the places Real pointed out. Kuala Lumpur is really nice for a S. Asia metropolis.
Yea I purposely didn’t because they (Malaysia +15%) are on par with India (+12%) and are half the top two. Didn’t consider liquidity either.
Happy b day
Nymph
Damon aka devildog
Nice rant
BRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAP
Fly…you MAY BE an investing genious…but WE (the people) will never know,,,cuz you are spin city and soooo ofen say NOTHING of substance…your irreverence is not “cute” or funny anymore…you are a negative human being….and therefore will fail…with you attitude…any success you may have (which is prolly exagered) …will be short lived….the powers that be will see to your demise…I just hope that every other “blogger” on here finds a new venue…becuz THEIR stuff is very worthwhile…
these kinds of posts always show up just around the time that these “bulls” are getting scared shitless, but their greedy pea brains won’t allow reality to seep in…
If you said that shit to my face, I’d punch your chest hairs off
Can i make an appointment? My back hair gets quite unruly during the winter months.
No Bust today baby!
Futures rising!
You are annoying.
I’m annoying! What about you?
FLASH CRASH AGAIN!!! AAPL down over 15 in less than 10 seconds!!
I hate to gloat but you have to admit that was an impressive comeback this morning!