Thirty year mortgage rates are at a new 52 week low, 4.93%, and home builder stocks are being poleaxed due to a record amount of fucked up loans. I understand what the ECB and Fed are trying to accomplish, via inflation, but to me the main threat is still deflation. It’s hard to argue for deflation, amidst record gold and high oil prices; but I’m gonna do so anyway.
All of the fucked up toxic loans on the banks balance sheets are being masked with insidious accounting standards. On top of the mortgage debt, banks are now crippled with massive sovereign debt threats, which will undoubtedly make them tighten the screws on lending. While it’s true, it’s rather easy to modify your loan if you are a dead beat. It’s rather difficult to get a new mortgage, if you are an honest tax paying citizen. So, my question to you is this: aside from stock market reflation, how is the liquidity getting into the system? Tell me. From my vantage point, the liquidity is being used to plug holes at the banks, enabling them to enjoy record spreads, while sacrificing the baby boomer at the altar of artificially low interest rates.
They are trying to do something that is unprecedented and I am not sure it will work, due to the mounting risks.
If inflation was truly a risk, wouldn’t [[TLT]] be a lot lower by now?
I will be the first one to tell you, I am confused. If anyone tells you otherwise, they are either too naive to see things in 3-d or are lying to you.
Back during the dot com era, when I was pissing on the old guys in the boardroom for warning me of imminent collapse, I thought the run up would last forever. When the shit hit the fan, my assets under management were at all time highs and I was booking my biggest commission month of my career. The moral of this short story: shit always looks the best when it is about to die sans organic creatures and shit.
Don’t wait for doom to smack you in the face with a bag of cocks; use some protection against said cocks.
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