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Monthly Archives: May 2010

Go Marinate Yourself

After such a big move, the market will try to rape you, by way of sending out misinformation and false signals. Just when you think you have it all figured out, BAM, men in fancy pants slap you in the jawbone with legs of lamb. My advice to you: forget about this market for a few days. Go to Europe and drink heavily with Irish people. Leave some longs in place and pray to God, or whatever mythical creature you believe in, that things go your way. To couch your position, consider a 50% cash position.

Why?

Answer: because only narcissistic asshats think they can time the market perfectly. Having cash in your investment accounts is equal is to having an eraser on the end of a pencil. We all make mistakes and it’s important to approach this bitch of a market, tactically.

As the day progresses, stocks are getting weaker. To be honest with all of you ham and eggers, I could not care less. Who gives a fuck? My risk is very minimal and I am playing with the houses money, AND MORE. Over the next few days, I will look to make another dive into the market, long or short. For now, I am leaning long.

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Go With Tech

After such grandiose wins, particularly in my personal accounts, I’ve decided to take it easy for the next few days, and shit. Rarely do I speak of my personal wins, in favor of the broader picture. But so you know, the recent [[VXX]] trade that was mastered by yours truly was the biggest trade, by size, on a personal and professional level, of my career. I am glad it worked out and will not try such an absurd thing again, for many moons.

At any rate, we are still oversold and should rally. I do not like the banks, for a number of “no brainer” reasons. And, with commodity prices falling, coupled with dollar strength, I do not want to buy commodities either. In my estimation, if you are going to play the bounce, do so long big cap tech. Personally, I have been buying [[TYH]], which is 3x tech fuckery, all of the finest and biggest cap shit out there, from [[IBM]] to [[AAPL]].

As an aside, I was impressed with the numbers out of [[FTK]]. More on that later.

Picking through the rubble, I want to average down on a few of my positions. I like [[CBD]], [[TEVA]], [[PKX]] and [[EMN]] down here. I understand the euro is raping the world. I am alarmed by today’s drop. Moreover, I have every intent of keeping all new positions are very short leashes.  My prediction for this summer has a lot of do with pain and extraordinarily lower equity prices. So, keep in mind, when I say “I like” something right now, I literally mean “right now.” Shit changes all the time.

When I talk to stupid people in the street, and shit, they ask me “hey, what do you like now?” In the past, I’d entertain their queries with a flurry of picks, with commentary. Now, with age and a much more jaded/cynical attitude about life, I tell them “I like what I like and that changes on a continuous basis.” The reality is, I am not a fucking stock picking monkey; save that shit for the pikers doing 5 gross per month. I manage money and do so with the utmost dignity and professionalism. Asking me for a stock pick is equal to asking Ty Cobb to show you how he hits a single.

FUCK OFF ASSHOLE. GO TO THE YAHOO MESSAGE BOARDS FOR STOCK ADVICE. I AM TOO BUSY BUILDING MY KINGDOM, and shit.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXjZNOu70Xw 616 500]

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Fly Cartoon: CHEQUEMATE

Mr. Devil Dog and “The Fly” partake in a game of high stakes chess.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y8q2X0JPcuA 616 500]

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A Week to Remember

Okay, I am officially baked for the week. Often times, I sort of skate through markets, with the specific intent of avoiding emotion. When things get sporty, I go eat sandwiches or throw firecrackers at piker brokers, from the back of my 1980’s style stretch limousine. Today, I will drink heavily, while recounting some of my stock market splendour [sic] to complete idiots, people who don’t know the difference between a stock or a peanut butter sandwich.

Anyway, the market is volatile for three reasons:

1. Bullshit hedge funds are being pressed to sell, following their asshats investment policies gone awry.

2. People are scared to be long over the weekend.

3. The long bond is rallying, “like fuck.”

However, in my estimation, going long into the weekend, following an absolute drubbing, is a good idea, since government hacks like to surprise the markets with “new and innovative” quantitative policy announcements, on Sunday, prior to Asian trade. Nonetheless, my long exposure is very limited (50%) and I am in an excellent position to make a few errors, being up 27%, year to date.

In closing, do you want to know how I timed this market to perfection?

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kc5mSvwuwV8 616 500]

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Things to Watch

Keep FXE, UUP, TLT and FXY on your bullshit monitors.

Ideally, for an up tape, you want FXE up, UUP down, TLT down and FXY down. Most of the market drama has a lot to do with currency manipulation. So, if the powers that be can keep that recipe in check, the market should recover.

At this stage, we retested the “flash crash” lows, as predicted. Now, look for a 200-300 point move up, then back down.

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Time Machine Update

Real quick:

I blew out of the entirety of my [[VXX]] position, booking millions of dollars in profits in the process. With a small percentage of cash, I doubled down in both Eastman Chemical Company [[EMN]] and POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] , positioning myself to sell both names into strength. It’s a bold move, but worth it, in my opinion.

And, to get broad big cap tech exposure, I bought some [[TYH]] .

However, longer term, I am very bearish on the markets and will look to re enter [[VXX]] lower. In addition, I will begin a short selling campaign, on individual names, who are deserving of a good lashing or 5. My plan, which may fail, is to ride this oversold bounce to the tune of another 5% gain, then reverse positions to the downside.

Based upon the sublime laws of The PPT, all to do with mathematical harmony, we will bounce today, AND MORE.

Finally, my current allocation is about 50% cash, 50% equities.

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Fly Buy: TYH, EMN, PKX

I bought 20,000 [[TYH]] @ $29.84.

UPDATE: I doubled down on both Eastman Chemical Company [[EMN]] and POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]]

Disclaimer: If you buy [[TYH]] because of this post, your local gov’t will inflict damage upon your purse, via AUSTERITY MEASURES. And, you may lose money.

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Leveraged Danger

Okay, we took some pretty significant market hits this week; but it may be just the beginning. While it’s true, the markets are deeply oversold here, if the underlying economic factors materialize the way I think they will, we have thousands of points left on the downside. Nonetheless, in the short term, I am positioning for a bounce, by selling the balance of my [[VXX]] position at the open, including the entirety of my personal accounts.

From a pure mechanical standpoint, the market is in dangers of falling victim to forced liquidation type sell off, thanks to the fact that so many hedge funds got caught leaning long. Prior to this dip, every jackass with a series 65 was long commodity stocks, in size. Well, for the most part, commodity related stocks are down anywhere between 10-40%, over the past 2 weeks. This means, without a doubt, margin liquidations and hedge fund failures are to be expected.

If so, and you can count on it, stocks like Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. [[FCX]] , United States Steel Corporation [[X]] and Bucyrus International, Inc. [[BUCY]] , just to name a few, may drop to levels you didn’t think was possible.

So, before going John Rambo, bow and arrow crazy, into this market, consider the fact that men with tiny brains and big assets are about to get flushed the fuck out, effectively rendering your bullshit charts meaningless.

On the flip side, if all of that shit doesn’t materialize, we’re due for a nice bounce. I will be a net seller into said bounce.

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Clutch

Tonight, during dinner, fuck 2 1/2 inch rib eyes, heavily salted, lightly peppered. I will ask the waiter to bring the whole fucking cow to my plate. “Bring me the whole cow, milk and all, you fucking bitch,” cried Le Fly at his favorite eatery. This is what it’s all about, folks: fucking over thy fellow money manager, then stealing his book of business. That’s right, I’m talking to you. Give me 5 minutes alone with your clients and they will be mine.

But I didn’t come here to brag. Instead, I am here to celebrate, dance in the blood of my European cousins. Remember today, because in about a week or so, most of you ingrates will be back to doubting my market hand—in the midst of a recovery bounce or vomiting of the markets. Either way, you and I go through these cycles all the time. After all, it’s human nature to out-best and attempt to murder the next guy, while he sleeps. But, in the end, I will win—ALWAYS.

Before I go, I found a clip of you guys (readers) in a car, singing some queer song.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lM4JFy7mPNk 616 500]

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