Greece is entirely screwed. Portugal and Italy are next. Yet, U.S. futures are pointing to a higher open, due to the belief that “everything will be alright.” Although I believe we are now running on borrowed time, I still think the market can squeeze out a few percent on the upside, before the European crisis really hits the fan.
Today is also a “Fed day.” I expect rates to remain unchanged and the language in the Fed’s statement to be benign. With all of this, I expect the market will bounce hard out of yesterday’s murderhole. My recent purchases include [[VXX]] , Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] , Jarden Corporation [[JAH]] , [[CGA]] and Cytec Industries Inc. [[CYT]] .
Fuck this shit. I have no interest in making any wild moves today. Everyone is too damn impatient when it comes to money. I will sit here and wait for the money to come to me, as I intend to sell everything I own at a profit.
NOTE: [[MTA]] is not really down 10% this morning. The stock went ex-divvy on an annual 9% dividend today.
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“Truly, you will all be tested by the appearance (nature) with anxiety and fear, hunger and loss of your goods
and chattels and life and all that is nourishment, but when you are connected to patience then you will surely
overcome all tests, because it is part and parcel of life for things to go up and down, for good to alternate
with bad, of which there can be no doubt; the message to the patient ones is, however, that all strivings yield
good fruits and time will ultimately change everything for the good.”
8)
I’m interested to see how Europe’s demise affects our markets. Everyone has been betting on depreciation, so I’m thinking it appreciates to the tune of European investors fleeing their fellow bullshit citizens in the name of self preservation.
yeah, MTA. Took me a second of shock to realize that all was OK and that today was the ex-divvy. still down a bit on the day though.
Looks like I have a new mortal enemy.
Sell everything at a profit? How will you explain that to the Senate panel?
From yesterday’s Washington Post —
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/04/23/AR2010042305258.html?hpid%3Dtopnews&sub=AR
To keep the global economy on track, people in the United States and the rest of the developed world need to work longer before retiring, pay higher taxes and expect less from government. “The advanced economies as a whole may need to depreciate their currencies so as to increase their net exports,” Blanchard said.
Fuck the USA. I am going to buy that condo in Manzanillo afterall.
from that article–
“”Rebalancing” is an idea that most everyone endorses — including the technicians at the fund and President Obama and the leaders of the G-20 group of economically powerful nations. In broad strokes, it means curbing what has been a massive transfer of capital from nations that consume more than they produce, such as the United States, to nations that produce more than they consume, such as China. “”
Nice to know our leaders are on our side. Produce more than we consume huh? Nice to know how you figure that one.
Hands down the best line in this article is right here:
“That’s the practical meaning of a series of policy papers and statements issued in recent days by IMF officials, who have a long history of stabilizing economies and solving global financial problems…”
Maurice Strong knows the answer to your question. Ask him,,,
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?url=search-alias%3Dstripbooks&field-keywords=maurice+strong
and
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maurice_Strong
This says it all…”Today Strong lives in the People’s Republic of China.”
Nice dead cat bounce.
Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy should get together and agree to keep all northern Euro’s out of their countries (for holiday) unless they come up with a nice bail out. The Euros will not give up their holidays to sunny locations.
Please thrown nancy pelosi into one of those beautiful girdleholes and come visit me over here in san fransicko.
thx in advance
Michael Savage:
Do I know you?… were you once a currency trader? If you were I think we know each other.
Can i ask this question out loud as it’s been on my mind. What if the PIIGS default. What is the huge issue with that? The IMF comes in, forces the bondholders to take a material haircut of say 40 cents in the Dollar… (or in this case the Euro) or forces them to take in kind paper……
What happens then and why is this such a huge problem. In fact I see it as a form of cleansing operation and they can start again with with added benefit that these fuckers will no longer be able to tap the credit markets and thereby put another nail in the coffin of the welfare fucking state.
Furthermore why is it so bad for the US?
It’s a big problem because it shatters the Euro and the European Union. The French and Germans would immediately lose a ton of economic and political clout so it is in their best interest to keep the organization strong and give the appearance of unification and strength.
wIlmer.
Yes that’s all true and lord knows I’ve read the lot in terms of how it’s important for the EU and the Euro etc.
But why would it shatter confidence in the Euro though in a different way than say a small US state.
I also don’t see why Greece would have to leave the Euro even if it defaulted.
Again I’m trying to think out loud here.
I really don’t see this as a huge problem and by the time they do officially default no one will care as it’s all priced in.
More to the point what happens… The ECB will keep rates down and so will all the central central banks because as a smart guy said to me that’s all they know what to do.
Well, the way I see it the strength of the US dollar is built on the unification of our Union. If we were to ever allow individual states to default it would be just as bad for us. If the Euro participants are allowed to fail what is the point of pricing debt in Euros? Just revert back to the old currencies at that point.
I agree practically this means more and new ways of quantitative easing and devaluation. Plus it will have the benefit of bringing Euro exports back into equilibrium and possibly helping to move the more socialist countries to the right if tough austerity measures actually take place.
The strength of the U.S. dollar is not built on the unification of the Union. It is built on the ability of the government to back its value. Hence, a default of a state would only hurt the U.S. dollar if you assume the U.S. government has too much debt after the reduced income from said state to adequately back the currency.
I’m with j; a default of a European country alone does not destroy the Euro or help the U.S. dollar. It only changes depending on what happens afterward. In a couple of years, I can see European countries willfully leaving the ECB to regain their ability to devalue their currency, since that game strategy is the only thing Keynesians will ever consider.
Great title. That’s all I got.
Because of posts like this, I continue to read your blog. When it truly matters, you shoot straight and give honest validation. We are on borrowed time and, we do have some levitation to get out of the way. Yea, I know.. F*ck off, right?
This market suddenly has the stench of death to it.
I am now flat.
Uncertainty…in every corner of the market….especially fins.
Hey I thought Blankfein was terrific in My Dinner With Andre
http://www.imdb.com/media/rm4204501760/nm0001728
Dead Ringer! C’mon
Guess What is still in a Death Cross?…..Shanghai Comp……Europe is just a cat fight sideshow…..Shanghai and Shanghai Copper is the true story imho.
Good observations nymph…
guess the “all in bet” on inflation isn’t working out just yet, but it could.
still they’re always on the bubbly side aren’t they?
They normal swing wild….
flat with finger lightly pressed on the sell button.