Despite today’s non-reaction, I believe the Fed is trying to funnel us fuckers into Treasuries, via shaking up the equity markets. Let’s be serious: there is no real inflation. The economy is still bleeding out jobs and most of the commodity push can be attributed to dollar weakness. The Fed wants you to sell stocks and roll into [[TLT]] . Let’s see how that pans out, over the next few weeks. With my money, I will chill the fuck out and wait for my kills. I sold a little more today, upping my cash position to 53%. I don’t have an interest to go short, just yet. However, I am intrigued by a [[TLT]] -gold pair trade.
Eat well and drink profusely.
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qZwwyHvCbo 616 500]UPDATE: New Wall Street 2 Trailer
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Black dynamite would kick his ass
Could this be a reaction to the announcement that they caught 2 schools in china doing hacker espionage? Could this market fluxuation be our countrys response to this industrial spying? And what would chinas response be to this manuver?
I think it has something to do with all of us, remember ww1 started with an assasination. The next could be started with an accusation.
Or a fascination.
Permutation?
Red Sox Nation?
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It is time to set aside our fascination with accusation and move toward a new permutation of reconciliation between Yankees fans and the Red Sox Nation!
You are a sensation without compensation but we know what is beneath the shades – no pupils.
This market gives me the heebie-jeebies
That’s probably just the Acai Berry juice you had after lunch.
They all should. The bears are calling a top and are positioned for it. I still expect a higher high when there stops get blown.
234 Days
Out of interest and curiosity, how long does it usually take you to enter and exit an average-sized position after you have made your buy/sell decisions?
I’ll take this one.
Thank you for your question, Bob. To be honest the average amount of time to enter or exit a trade varies as you can well imagine. The most contributing facotr is what power setting the cattle prod has been set to.
When Fly gives me a gentle nudge with the prod set at “Woah… that wasn’t nice” it can take a couple of minutes. When he’s a bit testier and jabs me at “Shit, that hurt” I can get it done in less than a minute depending on the trade size.
Now when he’s really pissed and zaps me with “What in the fuck are you doing, you gonna kill me!!!!”, it happens almost instantaneously.
Don’t forget to visit our sponsors, and make sure you get a PPT subscription.
Again, thank you for your question and we now return you to your regularly scheduled blog reading.
Does Fly have a 401k,health insurance,paid personal days,options on FTK, etc. as part of your pay or does he compensate you with left over pizza crust, cold coffee, and an occasional bag of Whole Foods groceries?
All of the above, but I am not allowed to seek medical treatment for the electrical burns. Something about he dropped coverage on Worker’s Comp insurance. I don’t know the details.
Something tells me you just like it. You probably luv sudden market moves.
Thanks, Sir. Well said.
How long does it take when he’s throwing frozen cans of Monster energy drink at your back, while simultaneously projecting pornos onto your screen using a cellphone projector manufactured by MVIS?
You might want to suggest le fly do the grocery shopping this weekend if he thinks there is no real inflation – it’s very real and very ouch. I find myself walking down the aisles of krogers screaming obscenities.
Buy Kroger LEAP calls. Jan 2012 at 30
2 weeks to 1 year.
If there is one thing I’ve learned from you Fly (and still learning it, frankly), is when to go eat a sammich and chill the fuck out.
Chillin ovah heah. Eating sammiches.
Thanks you for attending to the proper spelling.
Lord knows, there’s no “sand” in a good “sammich.”
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dont tell the Earl that.
Thats to bad I was looking forward to observing the “all in – retard” buying.
You talking to me?
I made a 12% move from cash into hedging against inflation. Kept the equities. I will continue buying into the market regardless of direction. If the market starts a decline again, I’ll sell the children’s bicycles and make them invest it. If the market goes up, I guess they can continue enjoying their bicycles.
Overall, I’m -3.7% for the year. I could definitely use a precipitous -40% in my portfolio for bargain buying again, followed by a slow methodical return, but I don’t think I’ll be that lucky this year.
I believe in the Fly, sold some today to pay for a year of the PPT.
Well, that was a much better trailer than the first. But still…WHYSHIALeBOUF!!!?? Goddamnsonofabitch.
Would be fucking lame if Michael went back to jail again
What if he gets elected. That would be great
It’s a shame, but the trailer gives it away.
You see, Josh Brolin is always a dufus, or a bad guy.
Sorry for the typecasting, and especially sorry about that unchosen Stepmother problem….
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He ain’t no doofus in “No Country for Old Men”
I bet they’ll off Gordon. And by ‘off’ I mean that he’ll see the “error” of his ways and “reform” in the face of the evil Josh Brolin.
Lame already.
Yeah, he was a dufus in NCFOM.
He got his ass shot up, and daid.
= Dufus.
And very bad guy in “American Gangstah”
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And shot his own ass up, and daid in American Gangsta.
Loved it when Frank had his car blown up on Thanksgiving.
“Or would you rather your house blow up next time.”
Fucking baller.
Word
very interesting theory – I’ll buy that one, makes sense – they need to make Treasuries look attractive to keep the rest of the world buying them. they figure, “we already pumped the stock market to high heaven on fiat currency created out of thin air, let’s roll back the rpm’s on this turbo before we blow a head gasket”
Absof*&^ing lutely,
Agreed, no inflation, they will create chaos in other forms to move investors into treasuries.
This will repeat itself until such time the vast majority are tired/scared of the equity markets.
In the meantime, it will be a traders market.
Bot a slug of TZA @ $9.10
…and they’re scared shitless that, in light of China bailing out of their sacred duty to finance our spending, that the ROW won’t buy our shit in next week’s auction…so the FED needed to appear responsible …without actually being responsible or hurting the fat margins of their client of course.
cute little japanese schoolgirls with ipods own our asses now – got pigtails?
I think the fed is attempting to be prudent. When should they raise rates??
They raised them continuously in 2004-2006 and it made no difference anyway. Market was up due to the amateurs surprise. next week will be up more.
What the fed needs to do is put a top and bottom on the market for a few years until some of the well known issues are resolved. Price AND time. Time can fix what price doesn’t to the chagrin of the shorts.
There would be less panic if investors knew they might lose some money, but also not wake up to the “faces of death” tape in the morning.
Fed doesn’t need to put bottoms in the need to help with the tops also. Still shorts to cover next week.
“Time can fix what price doesn’t to the chagrin of the shorts.”
To the extent that the “leadership” (is there any ?) in Wash. D.C. begins to make the necessary changes in government – less spending, better regulation, overall fiscal responsibility; then yes, I would agree that time can help clean up the mess that exists.
But time in and of itself will do next to nothing if the same bankrupt methods and actions that have been used in the past continue to be implemented.
That thought is why it works. It doesn’t work if everyone is satisfied. People are happy and reckless at the top. You need shorts and longs fighting with fundamental views to make a range.
Did you notice the shot of Madoff’s former office building the “Money Never Sleeps” trailer?
Subtle, huh?
Subtle indeed. I used to work in that building and remember an elevator conversation that I had with Bernie about the weather in New York being shit.
Obama:
You are one to speak, no legislation to speak of, and losing voters daily.
>>Despite today’s non-reaction, I believe the Fed is trying to funnel us fuckers into Treasuries…<<
Sure, that’s why within hours of last night’s tankage, four different Fed members got on the wires saying this doesn’t affect rate policy at all. What’s even funnier is all those conspiracy theorists who said that the Fed was hands-on manipulating stocks UP from the 800s to the 1100s. Are those the same folks who now say the Fed is trying to send them down (but couldn’t even manage to do that for a single, low volume day)? Or are we dealing with two different sets of conspiracy theorists here?
Correct me if I’m wrong, Mark Spitz, winner of 7 gold medals and owner of a primo mustachio… but were you not short as of last visitation?
Perhaps it’s time to go back to the chintzy consumer goods catalogue bidness and leave the stock picking to those who banque coyne on a regular basis?
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I covered my S&P short at 1102 (and posted that here yesterday). I plan to try again at around 1140. Here is my five-year performance record:
2005: +45.2%
2006: +24.1%
2007: -14.4%
2008: +10.6%
2009: +78.9%
2010 YTD: -2.8%
Yeee-hawn.
(‘scuse)
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down in 2007 but up in 2008? you’re just flipping a coin, right?
>>you’re just flipping a coin, right?<<
No, obviously I got short a little too early. The reason 2008 wasn’t up more was that at one point (too early) I took a big shot at the long side and then got stuck in the position, because the i-bank I was working for at the time had mandatory hold positions on personal stock trades.
I’m assuming you’re saving the Pimp Council clip for a special occasion?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Mvp-nOz9Gk
You had to screw it up for Le Fly
This may be the purest gold since .9999 Maple Leafs.
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This is a good read on Chinese housing.
“The entities that are doing the leveraging in China are not individual people, but instead local government entities which have borrowed trillions from the banking system to develop real estate projects in the first place,” says Victor Shih, an expert on China at Northwestern University.
Shih has been researching local governments’ finances in China. He says, for example, that about half of the Shanghai government’s revenues come from land sales. Because local governments need this income, he fears that measures to cool the real estate market might not work.
“Local governments now are forming their own real estate developers and would actually buy land from itself. As this becomes more common — and it is becoming very, very common — then local governments have a high stake in maintaining and increasing the value of real estate in their own jurisdiction,” he says. “Therefore, I think local governments may intentionally ignore a lot of measures that are meant to deflate real estate prices.”
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=122990689
Interesting fact: Most unemployed are people newly trying to enter the work force, and not those being laid-off or let go. Chew on that bucko.
Sounds like a gubmint generated statistic.
I just laid off half my crew and it looks like June is the earliest I can possibly hope to hire them back. There is little work out there in my trade as there are virtually no capital improvements being made other than replacing equipment that fails. The housing fix up/green up program is a flipping joke. Administration of it eats over half of the dollars allotted for energy saving home improvements. Get the bubbagubmint out of my life! The sooner the better.
Where did you get that “fact” buckoff [sic]?
Let’s be honest, gents.
You have no fricking idea what’s going on.
Being one of the laid off myself, bucko, I beg to differ.
back to the top…
i like this budding public conspiracy theorist. i feel you might be a little late to the idea, though, as this shenanigan went on all last year. bond week was almost always bad if not disastrous for stocks. the present focus seems to be shuffling folks from shorter term to longer term and not outrageous increases in total debt like last year. how fortunate for the treasury that europe seems to be barreling toward disaster. we should probably expect the euro to recover and europe debt concerns to fade after the bulk of short term debt is shifted, but that leads to another conspiracy theory…
Fly
Could elaborate on your Gold – TLT pair trade.
If treasuries go up.. gold goes down.. vice versa toolbox.. its a hedge play.
a must read in regard to Greece debacle http://on.mktw.net/akd3NX
seriously, very well done. bullet points and all. if you are interested in finance and politics… i can’t bang the table enough on this article.
things have unfolded similarly before. things will happen again. learn from the past. learn from others. try not to make the same mistakes.
Great artical, and I imagine most of Europe if not the world will be watching what happens. History tells us Greece is a habitual defaulter of debt. So this is nothing new for “Greece”. What is new is being involved in the Euro, and NOT having the “inflation” card to play. But hell I guess they can still print all the money they want. We live in interesting times, however bank crisis and default on debt is anything but new.
My guess is the weakest Euro nations will fail also, will the rest of the Euro zone bail them out.??
Should you want to read a great book on this current banking crisis, i suggest This Time Is Different by Carmen m. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff. Past, present and future defaults are talked about in depth. Lots of charts.
http://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691142165/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1266701808&sr=8-1
No real inflation? The Federal Reserve is printing money like there’s no tomorrow. The real definition of inflation is the expansion of the money supply.
The US Dollar is worthless, the US has no real economy and we’re all screwed!
This market is going to rip higher – the economy is about to show some strength.
LOL. Yeah, the “strength” you are talking about will be driven exclusively by inflation. The Fed cannot allow for a second dip, so they have raised rates while raising Quantitative Easing at the same time. Things are going to get really interesting over the next month because it is not possible for the Fed to exit the market without imploding the market this time.
Fly’s new philosophy: “Sell the rips and buy the TIPs”.
LMAO!!
TIPs Monday Fly, BUY BUY BUY!!!
http://www.ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/auctions/auctions.pdf
Do you need the treasury direct url?? heeheeheheheheheheh!!