The dollar is rising because the economy is kicking ass, as evidenced by 5.7% Q4 GDP gains, and because Europe sucks long rope. Today’s numbers should buoy the markets several hundred points, considering how scared everyone is and the high level of short sellers permeating leadership stocks. However, for some odd reason, the market is full of ball-less cowards. These so called men are nothing more than eunuchs, unable to muster a respectable rally on fantastic data, on this frigid NYC morning.
I’d bet my face that Equinix, Inc. [[EQIX]] breaks $100 today and re initiates coverage on destroying the Cramer crowd who is short the name. In addition, I like the look of Ciena Corporation [[CIEN]] , ICICI Bank Limited (ADR) [[IBN]] , SandRidge Energy Inc. [[SD]] and Cummins Inc. [[CMI]] , down at these levels.
All of my rhetoric and Godly market timing will go to waste, unless of course the people managing the 401k money get off their lazy asses and get long in size here.
PNC Financial Services [[PNC]] is your market leader today. Trade accordingly.
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C0jgZXVSq58&feature=player_embedded 616 500] If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
fig
How do you disable the USTREAM app? It is quite annoying, good sir.
Starting Monday, the ustream will no longer be auto on Flyblog. However, I suggest watching. Scott is great.
What, you fuckers don’t trust my recommendation?
Just another jackass with his stochastics on …..whats different?
Nah, your recs are great, fly. I love the content provided on this site. I just don’t need to have it come blasting through my speakers every time I refresh the comments.
thank you
My thoughts exactly FLY.
About to hit some trades before I hit the slopes. Another day of blue bird sky and ripping it up on the snowboard. My winter home rocks thanks to the 3 feet of snow we received last week.
I’ll post some of my moves and current holdings before I go, not that any of you are interested.
TMoe wrote; “I’ll post some of my moves and current holdings before I go, not that any of you are interested.”
Finally, something you’ve written that is in touch with reality.
fid
Yo fly, it’s 7 degrees up at Killington today, probably around -10-20 at the top with windchill. I had reservations at Killington Grand, but pushed it back to next week. I’m especially fond of my extremities.
Love the video but thats about it!
thanks and a fuck a u.
In Fly we trust!
Steel stocks are up good (almost 5%), except for NUE. =P
The $VIX just broke through the floor of the descending triangle. Looks like a huge break. Lets see if we can break out of the range of the last few days. I dont see the $VIX recovering. The break is pretty good.
EMN looks sweet here off great numbers.
I have been waiting for this bullshit market to melt up to add to some positions. Been researching all week and figured today would be an initial melt up with selling going into close. we shall see.
So before I leave you losers and hit the slopes for a 5th day in a row here we go
TMoe adds to his short positions in MAR, LVS, BAC
Adds more RTH puts, Buy limit order set to add to my QQQQ puts
Buy limit order set for SDS
Long GMCR, SRS, HYG, GLD, SLV, ISLN, TBT
I’m with you TMoe. Although, I am unsure about GLD at this point. As the market drops, the dollar will rise, and gold will trade as though it is a currency. The next big drop in the market will be blamed on commercial realestate. It will take a long while for this to transpire, but I believe it is coming. I have chosen to short URE rather than to buy SRS because of the built in decay that SRS has. I have noticed that SDS is unlike other 2x inverses. It tends to actually track the long term trend of the S&P, rather than fucking you in the ass regardless of whether the S&P is up or down. So, I am building a position in SDS and short URE. As things get clearer, I will take my money out of my URE short and put it into SRS.
lol
Brother Tmoe
Ease up on the short today. I have a feeling with blast higher into the close.
DAMN YOU TMOE
As soon as I finished that bold statement of mine, the Dow dropped 40.
DAMN YOU.
agreed, Fly. Today we close strong. This is the snap back that we were looking for. I picked up SHW short today due to the ridiculous run-up in it, but I lightened up on some of my Short URE at the open today. I will put that trade right back on again next week however.
When FIG’s on your side…change sides!
Good one humph. I dare you to buy SHW. Tell me how that works out. I am short at 64.40 as I posted earlier. Also, my position in SDS is a long term trade, I am only holding a 25% position in it currently, and will add to it as the market falls. URE short is also a long term trade that I hold only 25% of my planned position. I will let you know when I add to these, most likely late next week.
I think today is a short-squeeze day and we should wind down towards the end of the day… BOOK IT!
Actually on a big wind down, I might buy some longs to hold for mutual fund Monday.
Interesting note: 70%+ of the March Lows gains came from Monday…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-yslBFoOBk
Buying LNG $3.01
Tug of war today
Big Bear gets eviscearated Monday
The bulls get shit faced Turn around Tuesday
Schizo Markets fucking and mucking in the Hay
Now INTC, BRCM negative.
All major components of SMH are undergoing major distribution again.
Can’t be good for NAZ.
and because Europe sucks long rope
what a great line…
but, we might close near or in the red, the excitment might last another 5 minutes, dunno….
but I have to leave and drop off a blueprint and will be on the road when the bell rings so I will miss the close.
again, weird shit in the air, and it doesn’t feel right. it might be the long rope?
DXY is only 95 basis pts from the 38.2% retrace of the long term down trend at $80.04 or so.
I would write you a “highly confident” letter that there’s where Ben gets to doin’ what those 70 Senators who voted him in yesterday elected him to do.
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I shorted PNC today, it’s going to hell.
With Fly still bullish, I know I can safely short this market. Even with faked up GDP numbers.
Tightening is the new watchword, no more bailouts, interest rates up….markets to hell.
Happy Days.
In an election year, eh?
Interesting thesis.
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Markets control rates from here on, not the Fed.
Markets control rates? Where have you been the last year?
Rates won’t change. Government controls leverage as a way to try and prevent the bubble from busting. Won’t work in the end of course. This shit churns sideways for months, and will get fucked as economies like Greece fall off one by one. Shorting is the way to go, however, be careful shorting specific companies because there will be TONS of M&A going on.
You seem confused. There’s a market for the dollar you know, and it’s called supply and demand.
If one has an infinite supply of something on hand, one “controls the market.”
Capisce?
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i thought buyers controlled the market;
sellers only control it if demand is inelastic,
for now w/o competitive alternatives the USD demand is somewhat inelastic
Competitive alternatives?
We’re still buying stuff right? What do you think we’re paying with?
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Jake, don’t you think a a decline in EURUSD as a result of concern over the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain) could push USD over ~$80 resistance? I believe this is playing a large part in the currency front now.
I think it could push USD to resistance, but not over it.
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LOL
I was forced to get short. Wackness prevails, so far.
See if NQ (im a fut trader, can I still hang?) holds Weekly S1- doubt it does after this nonesense.
We probably close JAN under Monthly supp 1!
If thats gonna act as a yearly barometer, perma bulls are gonna have forks stuck up their asses all year.
TFIG
Now dollar only 80 basis pts from a major retrace line.
Hang on, Sloopy.
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I hope Sloopy’s remarks calls the bottom as well as my “I smell dead bears” called the top on Mass. election Tuesday…
Any thoughts on AMZN.. after big apple sell off.. i am thinking the same will happen with amzn .. they are trading too expensive valuation wise right now.. with decreasing risk appetite striking the market.. i would look for a big sell of next week in AMZN .. what do you guys think?
After that nice down draft things have slowed.
Since it is Friday let’s start another rumor about E*Trade (ETFC) being taken over.
I heard they stopped taking applications for new accounts …….
Christ, this morning’s gains got butterfished (escolared for gio).
http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/health/2010/01/29/dnt.laxative.fish.law.khon?hpt=T2
I’ve had that fish too and it had no effect on me. I am immune to hangovers and shitfish.
What a fucking limp dick market.
BTW, Fly… The economy is not kicking ass. It never will kick ass again either. The current situation is a result of over-use of leverage by wall street and business. The consumers are no longer in the game, and they will never come back out to play. Without the American consumer out there buying the Wide Screen LCD TV’s, McMansions, and bullshit stocks, this entire rally fails. No matter how much bullshit the government or wall street pushes, the consumer is not gonna buy in. It’s time to go short on strength. The fun that was 2009 ended on January 11 with the reality from Alcoa.
Dude, your thesis may be correct (at some level) but Alcoa misses three out of every four quarters. Not exactly my “market tell” of choice.
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The tell was not the miss. It was the huge run-up to the obvious miss and then the miss. Wall Street propped the markets up through huge leverage in 2009 thanks to 0% borrowing. The end was Alcoa because Alcoa would have never been at that level without the 0% borrowing that Wall Street has. Now the fed cannot raise rates because the effect would be highly negative, instead, they will do covert changes to the market through lowering leverage levels. Lowering leverage will prevent a steep fall because wall street will be unable to trade the downside at 20:1. It will also come in handy in the future, when hyperinflation is the only way out.
Lowering whose leverage levels?
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Investor’s ability to use leverage. And by that I mean both institutions and individuals. If you don’t believe me, try and use a levered ETF like you used to in 2008. The limits on margin in levered ETFs has been cut to nearly 0. This was done to prevent a double dip, and it being done similarly to GS and other investment houses. That is why GS is down so much, and has been down for a while….
OK, I agree on the leverage, but that’s old news. Priced in pretty clearly, and only getting better for the leveraged players as the Fed inflates again.
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you’re confusing economy with the market – they decoupled a long time ago…and cool it with the armegeddon shit – ike broken company Alcoa trumps the financials, the tech titans, and oil? yeah right…oh wait I forgot google…yeah alcoa much more inportant than earnings from google…
My point on AA had nothing to do with the company Alcoa whatsoever. It had to do with the bullshit run up in the stock leading into earnings. Wall Street pumped the heck out of estimates in Q4, and with it, pumped the heck out of stock prices. I used AA as my example because they start every earnings season, and they were the poster child for fly’s “broken robot” market. Even shitty companies that don’t belong in the DOW can skyrocket in a bullshit tape that is run up through free money at 40:1. Alcoa may not be as “important” as financials, tech titans, and oil, but it is a member of the DOW 30, which makes it a fucking HUGELY important stock for the lemmings who have no clue what’s going on.
This market will not truly reignite until the dollar turns back once again, into a Bernankeain Pumpkin.
The good news is, that should be very soon, ovah heah.
Right now, however, whilst the greenback is trolloping around like Cinderella at the ball, you will just have to sit down, have a cuppa Joe and relax.
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http://blogs.zdnet.com/Gardner/?p=3413&tag=nl.e539
Glad you like CIEN, senor mosca. Been long CIEN since 12/02/09 @ $12.69.
fid
Time to melt some bear nutz
initiating position in ACI $21.80-ish
one more thing, before I go to work… I made some nice cash on Fly’s call with SD back in December, however, it is OVER for SD. Their debt levels are going to bury them now. Since the economy will never actually reignite, SD will be forced to sell off assets in order to remain a going concern. I wouldn’t touch that or any other highly indebted company. Their only hope is to sell to another company, and soon. I am going to start a short position in SHLD on any strength.
Just think how much the market is still up from last year at this time.
Most of you here are good spellers but still bunch of idiots!
For almost a year, every horrible news has been treated as ‘good’ news and now most of you are shocked that the bad news is actually being treated as such.
I said yesterday that the market goes up 2-4% from here but for anyone to assume that the liquidity/reflation rally is still ON is not smart. Its over!
Look for almost opposite of what has happened since last March. Reflation trade is over till NEW/LARGE stimulus plan gets announced. I am not calling for a crash, just a chinese water torture downward market for months to come.
US$ will sell-off a little here and than shoot to .84-85 area if not more. Forget about gold and miners if you know what’s good for you. Forget about the entire commodity complex and forget about any of the emerging markets and forget about the market as a whole. If you are balls-to-the-walls long, at least hedgge a little or get the fuck out entirely and enjoy whatever you like to do. You won’t lose money and you’ll njoy your life a little.
The problem with most investors is that they are predominantly bull or bear. They make money when the market works their way and than lose most of it due to their inability to reckognize that the trend is over and most are unable to ‘accept’ the ‘new reality’
fuck you all
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4kT1OVZxyZw&feature=related
A bit touchy about your lack of spelling skills, eh? OBTW, you mispelled ‘enjoy’ in the last sentence of your penultimate paragraph. But the well wishes in the sign off are appreciated.
fid
Actually the error you point out (thank you so much) is due to my wireless keyboard not always registering all letters I press. Good thing too. But, ‘bless your heart’ for pointing it out.
I did get a good laugh out of your post. Thank you. And as always, fuck you as well.
… inability to reckognize (sic)…
Apparently, that magical keyboard not only omits letters, but adds them as well!
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jake CUNT again.
Do you ever have an original thought of your own (other than FOX news) or you intend to coast along on your ‘pointing spelling errors’ of others…what a low life cocksucker!
Which of the above constituted “original thought,” Joseph?
The scatologies or the knee-jerk “Fox News! Fox News!” proclamation?
(I’ve owned parrots with more creativity.)
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The parrot owns you, you just too stupid to realize!
Ah, to the quick with your vorpel blade!
Please, educate me!
Please?
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Joe, your grammar is atrocious.
That’s because he’s way down in Mexico
DMG, any incestuous relationship to your cunt sister, gint?
lol – Stupid people make me laugh. Hey Joe, you crack me up.
I crack upi your sister, I mean your mother, I mean your sister…Oh, they one and the same, aren’t they? Admit it and the truth shall set you free!
You too, Joe, “Predominate Bear.”
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Prove it cocksucker.
Yes, I have doubted the rally all along but I did make money in 09. While %wise is smaller than many, nominally, far more than you will make in your pathetic fascist existence.
What have I to prove to you Joseph?
I’ve been blogging since May 1st, and my record is all there. If you’re too lazy to check it for yourself, I’m sure there are regulars who can tell you all about it.
Your claims, however, are weurth (sic) about what your most recent keystrokes cost you.
On Lawn Guyland they say it thus — Bubkus!
But please, continue your deposition. I, for one, am most interested.
” If you’re too lazy to check it for yourself, I’m sure there are regulars who can tell you all about it.”
It’s not that at all, It’s just that that you’re not worth my time to check on you! Mrs. Cunt!
Ah, what can I do Joe?
What can I do to earn your valuable time?
I insist you give me that chance!
______________________
Ok Grasshopper. Here is that chance:
Keep an open mind! Always assume positive intent!
You can spend the next 30 years fighting this and continue being a loser or accept this and transform. For your family’s sake, I hope that you do.
Nirvana!
(nothing left but a loose pile of clothes, some weejuns and a clay meerschaum pipe)
I am done posting for coauple of weeks while you fight everyone in sight who has a slightly different than your Hitler view of the world. Carry on but don’t forget your aunt is all naked and waiting for you at Motel 6! She might have a surprise for you. She might just bring your sister and really have a party…
I’d give it another six weeks at Toastmaster’s, Joe.
Minimum.
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The problem now is there is isn’t enough shorters with something to cover. To many with stuff to sell.
Hey Joe, just curious, when did you know the trend was over? did you go short?
I will respond to this honestly.
I went short in size early Dec. I shorted TZA which I hedged with options and after December options expired, I was naked, heavy long TZA and closed yesterday at a loss. However, I was VERY heavy short GDX (and I did pos here when I did commit to these positions) and closed this position yesterday as well at a very nice gain. I was short in smaller size other things but TZA and GDX were my largest positions. I actually own a small size of FTK and DPTR (even though for me it’s a small size, it’s probably larger position than the Le Fly’s?) All in all, I did take a nice gain yesterday and I am looking to short heavily again as soon as we get a short term rally here. It might not come but I am not pushing it. I will sit till it comes.
People, just ask yourself, market rallied ~70% from the low while the underpinnings of the economy have gotten shittier, do you really still want to be long here. Get out and wait for a trade. There is no trade here as I see it. Wait for the market to bring it to you; don’t try to impose it upon the market. Just remember, all of us a tiny grains of sand relative to the mighty market which churns $trillions daily.
First I got FTKed and now I pound SD.
5.7% GDP growth? Pfffft. More like 2.7% once they are done with all the downside “revisions”.
Bulls are really running with it this time.
“It” being cholera, I expect?
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Bulls are puking it up again, the semis were the tell…FIG analysis is spot on…I never should have covered so much yesterday, just kept a few tech puts like STX that are paying off well…way too late to short here, will have to wait for a weak rally, whenever it comes…although Mr. Retail might start dumping mutual funds on Monday.
GDP was a joke and a half, cooked number. Sure, it is better than whatever, but not only was this an ODD report it is also priced into the market. There are no cowards in this market, just people realizing valuations matter and that all the good news was completely priced in. No rally today, yesterday or the day before, worth wile at least. Not one rally held, see the problem? This is not a long only market, get used to it. Yes, I am short, but do hold long positions. I bought BGZ at 15 and own various put options on the SPY. Oh, steel still sucks, unless you want to hold it for years. Wait until we get the -100K employment report next week, yes 470K a week is in line with a loss of jobs, 2 years into the recession and 6 months after the ‘recovery’ began. How can we be losing jobs if we are in a huge recovery or the 5.7% GDP print was real? Simple, it is not real thats why. Oh, the real killer is how Greece is screwed and S&P slammed the UK yesterday, doh! S&P will now talk down the US as well, watch. This will get ugly, very fast.
Checking in during my break. Look like Jake is still being a dick. I didn’t realize how much of a skunk he was. My guess is that he picks out non-premium-paying subscribers to molest. He obvoiusly would not want to bite the hand that feeds him. How bout them gold stocks eh?
Fail
Good One DMG
Thanks.
Isn’t your ‘break’ over by now?
Clean up, aisle 7!
LOL.
LungSac, still smarting from the ass-whipping you received yesterday?
Enough to form a “Gang of Einstein” with ersatz opposably-thumbed Joe, above? You go girl.
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As for “gold stocks” — I’m up hundreds of percents, thanks. What’s up with the gold stock you were bleating about last weak?
Are you strong enough to hold, Liberace? 😉
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The market discounts everything, including GDP (never mind a discussion about how much was due to building lean inventory in several sectors).
I posted earlier about a bad 1984 (with GDP-then called GNP over 7%) after a huge bull run begun in summer of ’82.
See also 1994.
As I said earlier I believe the Fed has been removing the punch bowl via it’s underlying actions. Gold stocks have known it and the physical will follow shortly. The Fed funds are a laggard. They are removing excess liquidity in the system.
I, of course, disagree.
Do you think Ber-yank-me is suddenly gripped by a madness now that he’s been re-confirmed?
Not in an election year, my friend. And you know GDP #’s in 1984 are not the same as they are in 2010.
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Bernanke is blessed by the Greek Gods … he can continue his dastardly deed while the $ strengthens … could Prechter finally be right?
I like the way ShiityGroup (C) is holding up.
It will probably be on the cover of Barrons tomorrow and the employees at Dow Jones printing the issue are buying calls and the stock.