Back in the old days, when I was young and delusional, I tried to time all tops and bottoms. Being gifted with the ability to pick winners, I felt invincible, as if I could do no wrong. Much to my chagrin, I learned, via staggering capital losses, that no matter how smart I was, the market would rape me—every once in awhile. Believe me, it took a long time for me to understand— and accept— the fact that the market does not dance to my jungle drums. As a point in fact, the market is King Kong and the rest of us are just bananas.
It’s liberating, it truly is. Give into the fact that you are a peanut and Goldman Ballsacks is an elephant.
So, whenever I start to feel cocky, whenever I start roaming my office dressed in a white robe and sandals, burning incense for the Gods, I do the opposite of what I really want to do. For example: for the past 2 weeks, while the market climbed, I felt as if my positions were all going through the roof and into the ever so ominous VAN ALLEN BELT aka a place where NO HUMAN has ever traveled. Instead of buying more, I sold and raised cash. Praise the snake God for that.
I digress.
Here is the lesson, if I might be so bold:
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJR62vsAg-0 616 500]After this leg down is complete, I will begin allocating my 40% cash position.
Top pick: [[ENTR]]
Twitterville just piled into FAZ like it was going out of style.
Expect ass rape to the upside later today.
People from twitter get dumb fast. It’s herd think at its worst.
“herd think at its worst”… I think that’s got to be pun of the year.
Twitter is a weather rock.
Fun tip: Develop a “to fade” list of traders on twitter, you can follow them and put them in a separate group or use a throwaway account as well. Great custom indicator.
Senor, would you care to opine on SYNA?
that stock sucks. I once lost a gaggillion dollars on it.
I’m at half a gaggillion right now. Everything tells me it will go up, though. At least, fundamentally speaking.
Going out on a limb and saying The Fly makes at least one buy today.
great jam. fig.
I’m slowly developing a like for your style fly. I tip my hat to you sir.
Fly,
You couldnt be more right. Picking winners is hard enough, knowing when to be in the market as opposed to being on the side lines is an area most folks are clueless about. For me, not only do I get good ideas from I Bank Coin, but the constant reminder there’s a time to be in the market and a time to “watch the world from thy window”.
I thank you for that.
That’s a decent jam.
Knight watchman:
No honestly i mean this. Is Tim Knight even remotely fucking numerate? Does the fucking moron even think before he puts something in a post.
Every time I go over there i click away shaking my head and wanting to smash a wall.
This morning he wrote a super critical post about some money manager dude that he heard on TV saying that he (the fund manager) thinks the Dow could double in the next decade. Of course he scoffed at it. He regally scoffs at it without offering anything other than his own, self absorbed unique scoff that puts you off immediately.
Here’s the thing. The Dow could double as that would be a compound growth rate of 7% (assuming divs of 2%) over the next decade. Has the fucking moron forgotten that we have gone up 50% since March, which happens to be less than a year, (Tim, I’ll help you count the months you dumb, useless fucker, It’s 7 counting March and not October).
Surely he must remember this rally, this is the one he got completely wrong and lost most of his capital. Now I don’t know if the Dow doubles over the next 10 years however I wouldn’t say that a nominal growth rate of 7% is beyond the realm of probability like this innumerate fucktoid is suggesting.
Fuck he’s an arrogant moron.
Tell us how you really feel j
Don’t get me started on the fucktoid, DSB.
He’s too fucking stupid to be going anywhere near a fucking stockmarket let alone “webbing” about it.
Nothing wrong with being stupid, lots of people are. However this fucker thinks he’s smart for some fucking reason I just can’t fathom.
You notice Timmay hired himself a graphic designer for that homo logo and now he’s ripping off google too.
Let’s remember that Tim is a marketing guy he holds no competence in any of the subjects he comments on. Of course the fact that he spends 80% of his terribly busy days trolling around internet blogs absorbing what others have to say on these subjects leaves him at an advantage over his cubicle-dwelling followers who are passing time between demeaning tasks and are barely qualified to count the money in their wallet much less compound growth rates.
his cluelessness to the stock market is only paralleled by Cramers cluelessness.
they should be drinking buddies.
tim knight trades solely on charts…. he ignores fundamentals completely because they involve math.
I mean, the guy can trade well when the market goes his way… but he’s very sketchy when it doesn’t and seems to only give portfolio updates when he’s doing well.
I knew when he posted his IRA was 100% long that the biggest takedown in months was coming — and here we are… less than a week later.
It would be fine if he eschewed the fundamentals, but he will read some other mongoloids posting on the internet about the deteriorating fundamentals and just regurgitate it as fact.
He was “long” a bearish mutual fund in his 401k. Get your shit right before ranting like a little dittohead.
Ya,
“Big dicks in your ass is bad for your health”
Fly, Well said & well played.
yee yeeeeeee, i push rhymes like weight.
Has there ever been anyone since Ice Cube, really?
They shoulda called the whole thing off after this, and LL CJ’s “Mama said Knock You Out.”
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I yield back the balance of my time to the gentleman from New York.
Ha! Back when Ice Cube was scary?
you guys still in SQM? Getting hit.
Citi out today (somewhat defensive) on ’em..
SQM announced its decision to implement a significant reduction for its lithium prices, by approximately 20% from current levels, with the purpose of accelerating demand recovery for both lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide.
SQM’s average price of lithium and lithium derivatives was US$5,833/MT in 2Q09. With the announced reduction the price would go to US$ 4,700/MT, which is still very competitive for SQM, as we estimate that the company average COGS/tonne is close to US$2,800/MT.
The lithium business represented approximately 8% of total revenues and approximately 10% of SQM’s gross margin for the first six months of 2009, with total sales volumes of 9 thousand metric tons (capacity utilization below 50%). SQM annual lithium production capacity is 40 thousand metric tonnes.
Our take: We are not adjusting our estimates at this point, as lower prices could result in a much faster recovery in volumes and we need to better gauge this impact before adjusting our figures. However, given the small size of the lithium business in SQM’s current operations, we think any potential impact would be very small.
We maintain our Buy/High Risk rating for SQM.
308:
I think the street is misreading the actions taken. Average IQ fuckers, analysts/traders see the announcement of a price drop and immediately read that as bearish for all the reasons they were taught in prep schools.
Not so fast fuckers.
You could also read that as really, really bullish too. The raw material they’re selling is really expensive and one of the biggest problems with batteries etc. is the cost.
As I read it, the company is lowering price to entice bigger demand and the possibility of new tech uses for the stuff. The effect could very be that it spurs bigger demand and profitability with new applications coming on stream.
Think of it it like this. Gasoline in 1860 cost 500 bucks a barrel in today’s dollars.. If the cost remained the same in real terms we simply wouldn’t have cars for everyone. The effect of my hero (Rockefeller) finding new ways to refine the shit spurred huge new industries and demand has gone through the roof for the liquid gold. That’s what these fuckers are doing, me thinks.
In fact as perverse as it sounds this action makes me even more bullish for the stock as I’m writing..
It’s a question of where you wanna be on the demand supply point point. They think they’ll sell more of this shit at a lower price and make much more money. They probably right.
exactly, it was a defensive, somewhat positive note as i said.. I just figured a few people here are in it.. why not post it.
Thanks, I thought that’s what you were saying. I just wanted to emphasize it and talk myself into buying a little more.
Wazzup!
Buy on the dip mothafuckas…
FIG!
go ahead with your money…have fun with that today..
“VAN ALLEN BELT aka a place where NO HUMAN has ever traveled.”
No human has walked on the moon?
Ummm, definitely NO.
A few years back my friends and I made shirts with 1960’s style astronauts floating around asteroids and underneath in NASA style writing it just read, “FUCK ASTRONAUTS.”
I was wearing it at a bar and ex-Eagles WR and current announcer Mike Quick interrupted me walking by and just shouted, “Hey man! Fuck astronauts!” He agreed the moon was bullshit but Mars…Mars might be cool. Glad he’s on the good side.
That is one funny anecdote.
FUCK ASTRONAUTS!
Even funnier that it was Mike Quick.
Was he still hanging w. Wilbert Montgomery? Still remember hating on those two back in the days of the Walrus v. Phil Simms.
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Nah, it was just him at a bar in Penn State during a football weekend. He and I were both drunk blabbering nonsense to one another about how astronauts haven’t done shit besides spinning bananas and doing infinity flips. We agreed that Mars might be a cool place, on account of Total Recall and everything.
The best part was I didn’t even know it was him until we were done talking and my friend told me it was him. One thing I do know now though, Mike Quick hates astronauts.
Yo Mama wears a Van Allen Belt.
Fly, what are you looking for as signs that this leg down will be finished (besides the PPT)? How are you going to approach buying when there is a possibility that the floor could drop? Small scaling in to make sure you got the timing and direction right?
Gutsy move to buy. Makes some sense because it feels like it’d be insane to buy after downdrafts like this. A trapdoor swinging open could nail a lot of buy the dippers though. Looking forward to seeing how you handle this.
For the timing I could see us falling until earnings start being reported en masse. Beating low expectations could give the market the next leg up. OTOH, with a couple of warnings from the Fed within the last week about possible tightening it seems like a major trend shift may be coming soon, if this isn’t already it.
Maybe one last thrust up of the market but I’m not sure how big that will be nor if it’s worth the risk to play it.
“So, whenever I start to feel cocky, whenever I start roaming my office dressed in a white robe and sandals, burning incense for the Gods, I do the opposite of what I really want to do.”
Great advice and anyone who’s traded for a while knows this to be so true. Everytime I’ve gone to sleep thinking how well-positioned I am and calculating how much I’ll make the following day, the Gods crush me for my hubris.
In a nut shell, looking for oversold conditions, best measured by PPT.
Henry,
Tried to comment twice on your new tab but not working, spam protection shows +?.
No time to fuck with it. Good luck Buddy.
Drum roll please, welcome to everyone’s favorite Fool……Henry!!!!
Best to your new blog tab Henry. Good trading.
What’s the PPT score right now? I will join later this year.
Thanks
2.33
Doombloggers everywhere are happily eating their plain dry bologna on wheat sandwiches, fat gut squeezed against their cubicle desks to hide their thimble dick erections, as they creepily grin at falling stock prices. The corduroy is taut today my friends, taut indeud. You’ve been warned. Do no leave snacks unguarded in the pantry.
“Plain dry bologna on wheat sandwiches” — lol!
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After losing so much money in the past few years. I think I’m finally getting it. What Fly is saying is so fucking true. It’s all market fuckery. I must have read your blog today for like at least 10 times. Those words hit me like a brick Fly. Thank you.
I know what to do now. I hope it’s not too late!
BANZAIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!!!!!
i just read this again. what a great effing post. prostrations.
I dunno, ABT looks pretty tasty already on the long side.
Deutsche Securities initiated coverage, Buys/Holds, on a tonne [sic] of shippers and transporters today. I think that as supplies reach maximum capacity, prices will have to be slashed to possibly increase demand and liquidate inventory, benefiting this industry. Also noted that DRYS was not included.
Guys why are you all still buying stuff today? when it’s raining, shouldn’t you be staying out of the storm? or at least bring an umbrella?
After the speed of the climb up since March, this 166 drop in the DOW & 50 drop in NASDAQ is not a correction. This only get us back to last Tuesday. I expect a several days step back of at least 7%. Any stupid geo-political event happen over the weekend and this could stretch until end of next week or so.
The latest word comes from the bottom of a dark, dank oubliette, most likely in Ireland somewhere.
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