Now you fuckers know why I tease the bears, when the market goes higher. At the first sign of weakness, these apocalypse wishcasters populate the comments section like homeless people on a free crack line.
Where is my line in the sand?
Well, I have a lot of room to be wrong, unlike my idiot ursine followers. I will accept another 5% on the downside, before throwing on a few hedges. It is not important to be right every single day. After all, micro managing a thesis is pointless.
I am amazed by the bullish action in SAY. I thought that company was going “Enron” on shareholders. Perhaps India perceives outright fraud in a different way than us backward western types.
Amidst the Devil Dog action, GS, AAPL, RIMM and GOOG were strong. It is my belief, the market will not break lower, unless the leaders have been routed. Additionally, oil is still strong, while the dollar is weakening again—also bullish for stocks.
Do not expect the bottom to fall out of the market, just because your idiot charts say so. They’ve been proven wrong many, many times, while I systematically bowl on you fuckers.
Top picks: OVTI, GLW
NOTE: I sold out of my DELL position today, as mentioned on The PPT.
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Death to all shopping malls….. (except the ones with Bass Pro Shops inside)
For every Enron, there is a Healthsouth. They rose from the ashes. SAY may be the same.
The U.S. should consider selling some states. California for sale – great weather, spectacular views, multicultural – bidding starts in 50 days.
Dave, the multicultural thing wouldn’t be the first item I’d put on the flyer.
by the way Fly, there is still some hang up, refresh rate issues with the site. Mainly on going to your section and clicking on your newest article headline….it hangs up there, other parts seem o.k. like Cronkite and the home page, but the blogs when you click on them seem to take forever to come up, like there is something in the system bogging it down (very large files, frames, that have to download first etc. hanging it up)
I don’t know if others are experiencing this. But it has only been doing this for about 3-4 weeks….prior to this it has always worked normally throughout the site.
Looks like today was the end of the holding period for FNSR’s non-executive ESPP participants… they all sold out, but management says mgmt didn’t sell anything…
Wish I’da known that was today… woulda been a nice trade… Instead I’m still long and I doubled up…again…
Whaddaya think, Fly? Did you know about the ESPP? ?You still holdin’ on?
Artist
We have not added new server yet. We own it and will implement steps to alleviate slowness shortly.
FNSR:
Lotto backlash. That’s what happens when you play lotto. Sometimes the ticket comes up a loser. I still own it, for the record.
Remember Fly, India is now “democratic,” and in turn SAY is looking good. I mean just look at this: “Bhavin Shah, global tech researcher at JPMorgan, said, ‘Satyam is likely to operate at higher margins and improved profitability. Additional stake in Satyam is likely to be positive for Tech Mahindra.'”
Plus, they’re laying off employees like wildfire.
What’s more capitalist than that?
RIMM was not strong. RIMM traded like a piece of turd infected with syphilis floating along the Gowanus Canal.
RIMM was down 0.11%. Shut up, bitch.
Additional note: STSI is getting homo-hammered in AH, for some reason.
I hate it when I don’t win the lotto…
so very deflating on a semi-weekly basis…
P.P.S. – Fly is on CNBC. Anyone catch that?
I am going to buy all the Zicam I can before it is taken off the market and attach it to my roof. Zinc is good for taking off algae on roofs.
TC-
Actually, the algae will still be there.
You just won’t be able to smell it.
June 16th 4:07 PM
Fly – “Additionally, oil is still strong, while the dollar is weakening again — also bullish for stocks.”
June 15th 11:24 AM
Fly – “Dollar strength is just an excuse to sell stocks. It is a symptom, not a cause.”
Disconcerting indeed…unless it only works in the preferred long direction.
Fly swims the Gowanus, nekkid, bitch.
In February, sometimes.
___________
Roark
It is. Because the “dollar strength” was only a one or two day blip. My overall point: the dollar is incredibly weak over a longer period of time, hence bullish for stocks.
Nice try.
Long STSI @ .72 cuz I’m fucked up like that
two fucked up minds think alike. in @ $0.74.
Oh no! http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1154919821&play=1
down from $86 to $80 in 3 days. not too strong right now.
Maybe foreigners will begin to skirt dollar-denominated investments?
You have to admit the inflation numbers were too tame today. In fact, taking out energy, it fell.
With credit disappearing at a faster and faster clip the deflation trade may be sneaking back on to the table.
Apropos of nothing:
http://gawker.com/5293031/barack-obama-fly+killing-badass?autoplay=true
Deflation has to occur.
rates up = prices down, and rates are moving up.
I rate all men based on their performance. So far no one has been able to match Fly’s performance.
Woody especially sucks.
What does Twitter and Ibankcoin have in common?
They are both slow as shit and down for maintance.
Boo-Yah
What do Jackie the Joke Man and Anna Nicole Smith have in common?
They were both put out of their misery by a guy named Howard Stern.
Thanks, I’ll be here all week. Don’t forget to take care of your waitress; she takes care of you.
SAY (small issues – nothing to see here) a matter of national pride for India. They will not allow it to fail.
Based on websites like http://www.tradingtheodds.com/ and some backtesting tomorrow should be an UP DAY.
Gretzky house auction 7/9. This is the real reason Fly’s selling the current house.
http://www.luxist.com/2009/06/16/lenny-dykstra-house-auction-scheduled/
a bunch of happy bears.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JoL6Ez3qAsw
Still short DIA and QQQQ chivas?
yes i am Danny.
150k qqqq 34.98
100k dia 85.42
25k iyt 60.89
long 100k faz 4.28
still very bearish.
Anton just gave me an honest to Gawd “lol” moment.
Obama & The Fly
And in case anyone missed this classic CNBC “misrepresentation” moment last week.
Junior gold miners look like an answer to your market doldrums… they usually lead the overall PM sector, btw…
Green Shoots in Gold Fields?
Juniors in question averaging over 5% moves today on a down market day… you tell me.
_____
dtrader
India is “now” democratic? Where’ve you been living for the last 50 odd years? And how did you fit your head up your ass all this time?
Look out for the Indians and the Chinese, they are eating our lunch. With their large populations just getting a taste of consumer goodies and spending frenzies, in a few decades they won’t need us greedy Americans anymore. Especially true of India, see how their markets have rebounded. Jobs still a plenty much unlike us poor souls here.
Look out for the Indians and the Chinese, they are eating our lunch. With their large populations just getting a taste of consumer goodies and spending frenzies, in a few decades they won’t need us greedy Americans anymore. Especially true of India, see how their markets have rebounded. Jobs still a plenty much unlike us poor souls here.
How stupid and narrow minded to think that perhaps the greatest consumer transformation in the world’s history could be a bad thing for anyone!
It’s called progress, nudniks!
_______
Chivas funny you mention, my top long term hold: faz
it’s a call that never expires, and some time in the next year I will sell it when it is a two/three digit stock.
To all the assholes that question how FAZ can get back to 100, it depends on the linearity of the move.
For instance, hypothetically, if RIFIN (tracking index) fell by 90% in one day, FAZ would go up 270%, from 4.93 to 13.31.
However, if RIFIN falls 1% EVERYDAY for the next 90%, then FAZ will rise 3% everyday for 90 days. Due to the magiks of compounding, faz will go from 4.93 –> 70.50.
Do I think fins will fall exactly 1% for 90 days straight starting tomorrow? Obviously not, but this example illustrates how and why at some point, the next prolonged sell-off we get will result in a huge explosion in FAZ.
My c/b is 4.35, with not quite as many shares as you, but lets just say, if I sell em at 70.50 and the dollar isn’t toast, maseratis for everyone.
Stop in at b/e, one year timeframe, I am going ftw on this one.
I call bullshit. Prove that your c/b is $4.35. Otherwise, shut the fuck up.
What’s the point in telling us AFTER the fact? Post real-time trades like Fly, RC, CA, Jake, etc. or get the fuck out of here.
Okay, that ^^^^ just blew my mind, Danny.
Or maybe it’s just that I’m still seeing a therapist (bartender) once a week to work out my FAZ issues.
I think Chivas makes big moves relatively quickly sometimes, but I haven’t heard anyone defending holding a long term position in that etf in a long time.
Actually, never.
I am easily drawn to the dark side, believing that we are, indeed, racing along in a clown car to hell. But I think a lot of readers would be interested in hearing any rationale you or Chivas might want to share… When he’s not Gulfstreaming off for lunch with the Queen or some such activity, that is.
________
Oh, yeah, and don’t forget to justify yourself to the douche bag.
Like that’s important.
Douche bag.
lol, Sir Douchbag[sic] is living up to his name. Well done, sir.
Douchebag.
ps.: FAZ L.E.A.P.S. FTW! Stocks are for asshats.
Gotta admit that a c/b @ $4.35 sounds like bullshit.
Actually, I’d like to see some kind of proof as well, and not some Google spreadsheet that you can just fill in anything you want (twitter, previous post, orders??)
You’ve been wrong the whole way up, so it’s kinda hard to imagine that you bought FAZ several times with an avg price of $4.35 when that price was only pennies from the low.
Jake
You may be right about people from the South being able to read and write, but if you’re an example, they sure as hell can’t comprehend.
So, I’ll spell it out in clearer prose for your limited brain, its so full of right wing bullshite, there must be precious few spare cycles for intelligent thought.
I wasn’t knocking either the Indians or the Chinese, but as they become increasingly economically and politically powerful, their interests will be increasingly less aligned with us. As we continue to send our jobs and little remaining manufacturing overseas, we continue to hollow out the shell of what made America great. That is why India and China recovered quicker than us and will continue to do so. The age of the American empire is ending, and we’re happily helping it along. Dumbass.
Danny, proof aside:
Your two examples (i think) are both fundamentally flawed. What would happen to FAZ if RIFEN fell 1% every day, then went up 1% and alternated the next for 100 days? My point is, linear calculations are misleading.
My case in point is a comparative 1 year chart of both FAZ and FAS. They’re down 93 and 81%, respectively.
compare FAZ to DXO for comparison. DXO(a 2X etf) has only doubled as crude has doubled from its lows of around 2.50 . Can anyone explain this?
All of the leveraged ETFs are going to zero, just like Cramer’s Charitable Trust. If legit, Danny is a retard thinking he is going to profit by holding FAZ longterm.
Dave, and others, the levered ETF fuckery has been covered ad. nauseum on here and various other website.
Short answer- when volatility is combined with leverage, the return is not linear (as Hammy stated). Volatility and leverage actually erode returns over time.
The only way to play these levered ETFs is to swing trade them, assuming you have a method that is right more often that it is wrong.
Holding these for any length of time greater than a couple of weeks is in imo a mistake.
The following article probably says it better than I can.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/35789-the-case-against-leveraged-etfs
Lol @ the Hermaphrodite – I sigh with relief now realizing you are merely a clue bereft Lefty, instead of someone from my own team –perhaps too far gone in the batshit libertarian “end of the world” direction — who could perhaps use a little nudge in the right direction, economics wise.
Since you are a hapless dolt of the Kos led leeches,I note that you’ve missed my point entirely (did you really think I was talking about “the bad” being for the Indians and Chinese, moron?) all I need do is tell you to re-read my original post in reply.
This time, for comprehension.
If that’s an impossibility, maybe get a group up, and tackle the subject like the Sunday Jumble or some such. __.
Danny, if you hold FAZ for a year you’ll get what you deserve. Since when do stocks fall linearly by 1% every day? There is always crazy volatility on the way. If RIFIN is down 5% one day and up 4% the next day, it is down 1.2% in 2 days, while FAZ will be up just 1.2%. On the up days the magic of compounding will work against you.
Another example. RIFIN falls by 10% the first day, then goes up by 5% for the next 2 days. RIFIN loses 0.8% over 3 days, but FAZ actually loses 6% over 3 days. Compound that a 100 times (about 250 trading days in a year) and see what you’ll get.
Unfortunately the damn thing is not marginable at my house, so I won’t get a chance to liquidate you.
And to the reader of tradingtheodds site – you only read what you wanted that the odds are for higher Wednesday. But he is also saying the odds are for down Tuesday-Friday 4 sessions
Danny,
Fucking idiot. The market does whatever it wants to do.
Get the fuck out!
Wood,
I was being facetious.
Fly
Why do I seem to recall you were a bear once? could you tell us when you again become one? another 5% you say..
Dave, ok. Sometimes hard to tell in this electronic medium.
No problem. The point was lost in translation.
I find sarcasm vulgar but indulge in it nonetheless.
FAZ: No problemmo. Once the trade goes against him, he’ll report that he nailed the intraday high to the tick and got out of the entire trade with a nice profit. Bank on it!
wow. I have 3.5k @ 4.35.
anyway, my stop is at b/e, so not gonna lose money on this one.
Not gunna hold it for a year either … bank on that too