With the market “power blasting” forward, one would think the Dry Bulk Shipping crowd would be holding extravagant galas off the coast of California, celebrating the “new bull market.” However, much to their chagrin, the Dry Bulk Shipping index is down 18 consecutive days, dating back to 3/10, for a staggering loss of 34%. Now, I know what you fuckers will say: “the dbi means nothing, yada, yada, yadaling.”
Fuck off. It means China is one big fraud and it’s time to get long FXP in size.
As an aside, avoid all insurance stocks (AFL, AIZ, HIG, LNC, MET, PFG, PL, PRU, RGA, SFG, TMK, UNM) ahead of earnings and in general. In my opinion, amongst the opinion of others, the ratings agencies are about to take “the fucking ice pick of bloody murder” to the sectors neck, via egregious downgrades.
In general, business is horrendous. Moreover, with the stock market down, they are all saddled with massive unrealized losses, which are detrimental to capital ratios. As a result: credit downgrades are a comin’.
In other news, former DB analyst, Mayo, got “Rambo” on the banks this morning, telling his clients to sell them all. In short, I think it’s fair to say, EVERYONE knows the run up in the banks is unsustainable. At this point, it’s a game of chicken between the newly invigorated bulls, and old disheveled bears.
With my money, I will look to take profits on recent longs and add to a few inverse etf trades gone wrong. And, furthermore, sell short some fucking banks.
UPDATE: I sold 10,000 WRI @ $11.50
UPDATE II: I bought 1.000 SRS @ $39.65
UPDATE III: Instant Asshat Award Winner: Dick Bove-
Bank of America: Rochdale Securities’ Richard Bove starts Bank of America with Buy rating, interim price target of $14; says Bank of America stock price will ultimately return to its all time highs – Reuters (7.28 -0.32)
UPDATE IV: I bought 2,000 FAZ @ $16.75
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fig.
Zombie is a fistula on Dennis Kneale’s anal canal
This game of chicken will play out until the chicken is choked, as it were.
Hi Fly,
I used to work for a P&C insurance company (several months back) and the general market was horrendous.
What about shorting the insurance industry via an ETF? Too late?
Anybody got that Mike Mayo report? FYI, Dougie Kass is calling for SP 1050 by year end…
Pick your sides, gentlemen
Just got a double on my DNDN as shorts covered in advance of the prostate cancer vaccine results due the end of the month.
Should I sell half now and regain my original stack of gambling chips, or let it ride a bit? I will hold at least half into the results. Odds are good for at least another triple should the results be positive.
In other news, my silver and gold is getting clocked today. I dumped a bunch of miners on Friday thinking there would be a pullback on the (old, but now new again) IMF gold sale news, but sadly did not dump enough.
KIE is the only insurance related etf that I know.
Gold down is bad news for market.
It means the DEFLATIONARY VORTEX is back. I don’t think many people are aware of this fact yet.
More SRS Fly?
cousin eddie has moved into the entryway coat closet. he sent out his resume, but the postman returned it – mistook it for a steaming turd wrapped in wet tp.
the propogand’O machine is telling us everything is great now that the chosen One is spending my money five times faster than the evil liar Bush.
this tells me that there is a bucket of bolts ready to fall on my head if I open the door.
_
Maybe it has to do with that business cycle thingamabob….
A little more SRS, just to keep pace. But, I am not confident the bears can mount a fierce attack yet.
If this Platinum ETF gets US approval, it should spike the metal. I have been waiting patiently for a method to invest directly in platinum, but currently there are no direct bullion backed ETFs available in the US.
http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&articleid=7257892&subject=markets&action=article
Fly:
Or people having given up on gold realizing that it’s not a fucking hedge against anything other than delusion. Seriously, i was a gold bull from $270 against Yen… I’m not kidding you. I was long of the crap against yen when the Japanese were monetizing in 2000/2001 and then i started to go long of gold against the dollar after 911. I now think it’s just useless crap up here and needs to clear all the arseholes out.
Gold isn’t signaling anything. For that you need to watch the currencies like the Aussie and Euro yen.
The only thing that could jeopardize my view is that the asshat, Devil dog, who says he’s short which means it’s the kiss of death or potentially so on the bear side. If it goes down it’s therefore a fluke principally because of the Dog’s view.
WTF is with CBL?
Fly — what would change your mind on SRS? Any stop loss range? I’m watching it and it’s wanting to test the lower channel line again it seems. Those fuckers with the upgrade on KIM screwed SRS. My question is, how long will the screwing last?
Gold Bug says it is an inflation and fear refuge……admittedly, for only those who believe….of course, I believe…..do you believe?
Anyone watching LVS?
Arghhh!!!
DICK BOVE IS A FUCKING IDIOT. BANK OF AMERICA IS FUCKED BECAUSE KEN LEWIS IS ALSO A FUCKING IDIOT. FUCK JON MACK, JAMIE DIMON, and PANDIT. FUCK BANKING I’M GOING 2k 5% FAZ right now.
FLY,
We’re in a correction and eventually the shorts will get paid.
So how does everyone feel about the future mounting of folks who will be running out of unemployment benefits ? Over 890,000 unemployed workers already have exhausted their 13-week extension, and another 1.2 million are projected to exhaust benefits by year’s end.3 Without these benefits, the Congressional Budget Office finds that about 50% of the long-term unemployed fall under the poverty line, HOLLAR !!!! 4 Congress should act swiftly to extend benefits for another seven weeks in all states, and an additional 20 weeks (for a total of 33) in states with unemployment over 6.0%.
The government will not let unemployment turn into welfare and/or section 8. Just think about the estimates regarding the number of people who will be moving from there homes to the nearby tent city grilling spam on the reg.
Aside from the credit cards, auto loans, ins blah blah blah mortgages ! all the mods and bullshit will soon mean nothing because the numbers of foreclosures will soon double. Income from RE/ employment taxes local, state and fed will soon be cut by a third. How will the government stimulate that shit ?
Bombs over Baghdad bitches
GU + TQNT on fire.
Small wins for Plutonium Petey.
Gold bug …
You really don’t know what you’re talking about.
Gold has performed terribly as an inflation hedge. It’s a douchebaggery hedge. The only reason that shit went up in the last decade is because the third world finally got rich and dudes were buying their misses more gold for that extra little boner.
All the gold bulls myself included bullshitted ourselves into believing we were inflation predicting marvels. However that’s the only reason and of course the supply side was retarded as miners put their resources to work to find far more useful stuff than that crap.
If gold is such a great fucking hedge than any of you gold bug fuckers answer this then.
Gold hit $875 an ounce in 1979. Why the fuck is it trading down 6 bucks from the higher of 30 years ago. Meanwhile US inflation has been really running at 3.5% per year since then which makes the debased value of a US dollar 35 cents in one 1979 dollar compared to todays.
The only hedge against inflation over the very long terms is great land (believe it or not, where the rich always want to buy), great stocks or getting a great college degree if you somehow smart.. Gold is shit as a hedge.
Just to keep up with US 3.5% inflation gold would have to be trading at $2455 today without even discounting the horrendous “inflationary vortex” we’ll see over the next few years.
BAC was the buy of a lifetime at $30. It was the buy of two generattions at $20. It was the buy of eternity at $10.
This time, at $7, I really mean it.
Fuck off.
j, you are obviously not a believer! You were wrong in your claim that FDR tried to keep wages up and that contributed to the Great Depression. Read Milton Friedman on the GD.
Call me crazy but I think this chart says a lot here: https://admin.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Aug2007/File/April09/saut461.jpg
I read into it that we are completing the second leg down of a possible 3 leg down pattern. I don’t see from this chart that we have broken the down trend on the second leg which leads me to believe we are at a critical junction that if we fall here there could be another leg down to complete the cycle. However if we break to the upside the trend could be invalidated. Thoughts?
I’ve read Friedman, and numerous other authors.
The great depression was a Hoover, FDR play, anon. Hoover started it and FDR continued it. It was only after 1938 that the US economy started to repair.
There was a ton of shit going on from 29 to 36 where both idiots tried to hold up wages by persuading big industry to maintain a high wage policy in order to stoke aggregate demand. That’s what those idiots actually thought. They thought that if they could keep wages high it would boost high spending.
FDR later monetized somewhat and inflated away real wages which is why unemployment fell to 14%. however he did some other asshatery things by trying fascist experiments on the economy which didn’t do unemployment any favors.
So stfu as I know what I’m talking about.
why TQNT ?
price to book 0.87
price to free cash flow 22.30 ??
ROE -2.81
and why a %10 pop today ?
LDK and CSIQ getting jiggy. All aboard the Solar Express.
Long LDK calls.
market is down 100 points and all SRS can do is be up 99 cents? once market stabilizes through the morning and dip buyers come in – SRS is going down!
Still long FAZ 34%, shit I want to pick up more, but that would be stupid, as if 34% isn’t stupid enough…
I’m liking TZA for a trade..
I followed John Paulson into AU – he owns KGC and AU – about $1.5 billion worth – I think it is a bet on higher gold prices, no? John Paulson is a billionaire unlike j, no? Hoover did not cause the GD – he did little until the economic downturn was under way – Presidents are seldom good on economics and Obama has no clue – it is people like the Evil Geithner running this debacle.
HUH? WTF is this about?
April 6 (Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve and four other central banks announced a currency swap arrangement that will help the U.S. central bank provide liquidity in euros, yen, British pounds and Swiss francs.
“Should the need arise, euro, yen, sterling and Swiss francs would be provided to the Federal Reserve via these additional swap arrangements with the relevant central banks,” the Fed said in a statement today. “Central banks continue to work together and are taking steps as appropriate to foster stability in global financial markets.”
The plan, if used, “would enable the provision of foreign currency liquidity” by the Fed to U.S. financial institutions, the U.S. central bank said.
The currency swaps have been authorized through Oct. 30 by the Federal Open Market Committee and not yet implemented. They mirror the dollar swap lines the Fed has established with more than a dozen other central banks to provide U.S. currency to foreign markets, and open a safety valve for U.S. banking institutions that may need access to foreign currency.
“If drawn upon, these arrangements would support operations by the Federal Reserve to provide liquidity in sterling in amounts of up to 30 billion, in euro in amounts of up to 80 billion, in yen in amounts of up to 10 trillion, and in Swiss francs in amounts of up to 40 billion,” the Fed statement said.
Fight brewing…Official US bank rescue watchdog Elizabeth Warren will release report this week slamming and damning…
“The very notion that anyone would infuse money into a financially troubled entity without demanding changes in management is preposterous.”
The report will also look at how earlier crises were overcome – the Swedish and Japanese problems of the 1990s, the US savings and loan crisis of the 1980s and the 30s Depression. “Three things had to happen,” Warren said. “Firstly, the banks must have confidence that the valuation of the troubled assets in question is accurate; then the management of the institutions receiving subsidies from the government must be replaced; and thirdly, the equity investors are always wiped out.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/apr/05/useconomy-regulators
I just read a good quote on gold: Its not a hedge against inflation. Its a historic hedge against the destabilization of government.
Just to keep up with US 3.5% inflation gold would have to be trading at $2455 today without even discounting the horrendous “inflationary vortex” we’ll see over the next few years.
Eggsactly.
😉
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Ah Anon:
Keep buying the shit. I don’t really give a rats if you make or lose money on gold. Here… change that, I hope it goes higher and you make a lot of money. Satisfied. I don’t have a position in gold because I don’t like the fundamentals of that crap. However I will trade it on the long side as I’ve done if I think i can beat the moneys to the punch.
I followed John Paulson into AU – he owns KGC and AU – about $1.5 billion worth – I think it is a bet on higher gold prices, no?.
So follow Eddie Lampert into Target,if you’re kneepadding to all the billionaires then anon. They don’t always make money.
John Paulson is a billionaire unlike j, no?
True but see above.
Hoover did not cause the GD – he did little until the economic downturn was under way
Wrong! Hoover caused it and FDR prolonged the agony.
– Presidents are seldom good on economics and Obama has no clue – it is people like the Evil Geithner running this debacle.
Fair enough so buy gold. I’m not, rather I won’t as an inflation hedge, however I will trade it. Don’t get me wrong I love gold on the long side especially when the monkeys get it running. However it isn’t a hedge against inflation or you will need to explain exactly why it isn’t at 3,000 bucks an ounce right now.
That could be true, eric.
Many gold miners are making nice profits right now – higher prices are straight to the bottom line – Paulson is not kin to Hank.
Hoover did not cause the GD – he did little until the economic downturn was under way –
Hoover did not “cause” the initial recession — that was a normal business cycle bust.
However, his decision to raise taxes and cut off international trade via Smoot Hawley — along with the Fed’s decision to tighten instead of loosen the money supply — were the three legs of the stool that got the Depression rolling out of that initial recession.
Remember, although a Republican, Hoover was an “engineer” and thought (like a lot of arrogant pols of that day) that he could drive the economy from the Oval Office, like some kind of big Cadillac.
Roosevelt replaced him, and instituted even more “engineering” (including suspension of gold ownership!) which extended the GD, and instituted a lot of very poor government bureaucracies that plague us yet today.
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Gold is only cool if Armageddon happens and print money starts getting used as toilet paper. That said maybe it’s not such a bad idea to grab a little lol.
Man if this market keeps going higher all those inverse ETF bids could prove disastrous. Look at FAS how many ppl thought it was a fucking steal at 15 … That said if the market drops like IT SHOULD BE they will be glorious.
That’s all from the worthless opinion of “Some Dude”
Is there more “engineering” going on today vs in FDR’s days? Seems it.
financials are going to kill all the bears on the way up as they killed bulls on the way down. They are going to suck in bears on very little downtick and then rip higher. Just look at the BAC – was down about 50 cents (this is 7 dollar stock!) this morning and now it is at break even.
Unemployment is full of stress and hard decisions.
I don’t know whether to watch Price Is Right or watch The View.
I know. I’ll get out of my sleep clothes and maybe shave.
ANON
how the fuck do you know what Paulson is actually doing with his position?
Have you given it some thought that perhaps he has the inside scoop on the likely production angle/cost, if they’re hedged or not hedged, that he may actually be, as a result of inside knowledge arbin,g the stock against futures.
That’s why it’s not always good to assume shit that people do.
Is there more “engineering” going on today vs in FDR’s days? Seems it.
There’s certainly a lot more ad hoc engineering going on at the Fed and fiscal stimulas level, but I was referring to permanant structures like the Dept. of Agriculture and Social Security.
That said, stay tuned on this bat channel for more such “gifts” from your friendly neighborhood fed’l gummint.
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I must say that as a currency trader, I’m surprised J doesn’t see gold as a hedge against not just generic “inflation” (as in dollar inflation) but wholesale global currency cheapening, in unison.
You been to the grocery store lately, J?
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True story – John Vance Garner, FDR’s VP, called Hoover a socialist and FDR initially ran on balancing the budget – that only lasted a couple of months after he was elected. Excess in capitalism is almost always the culprit – bubbles form – that is what government should be focused on – stopping excess which leads to bubbles. Government’s role – prosecute the law breakers and keep the economy in bounds. That Smoot-Hawley stuff is way overrated – only about 5% of GDP was foreign trade in 1930.
financials are going to kill all the bears on the way up as they killed bulls on the way down.
On the face of it, it looks like the Fed (and cronies in Congress) will do anything short of home invasions to rescue the banks here.
Not good for Joe Sixpack, but good for the status quo ante.
SLW will fill it’s gap at $7.20. You might want to buy at $7.25, just in case.
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GDX is a good daytrade IMO right here.
Spitzer in and outs.
That Smoot-Hawley stuff is way overrated – only about 5% of GDP was foreign trade in 1930.
True, and it’s only something like 12% today. But more than the trade itself, protectionism sginalled by Smoot Hawley (and Obama’s “buy America first” bill) causes capital flight, which is a far worse consequence, as capital investment needs to be liquid in times of global economic strain.
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i can’t wait to see how much fly makes on srs and faz once the smoke of this bs rally clears and reality settles…maybe with warren’s report this week and the start of earnings?? the balls on this guy, damn…..
Jake:
I swear, I can’t recall last time I went to the grocery store. That’s gals work. Although, 5 years ago when i last went there there were some pretty hot MILFS during the middle of the day.
We’ve had global inflation over the past 30 years.The US actually has been a pretty weak currency over that time running a very loose monetary policy so gold has actually weakened against currencies like the yen, Deutschmark etc. (which is now the Euro) in real terms over the past 30 years. Take a look at a long term chart on your bloomberg and express gold against yen which was 250 in late 70’s early 80’s.
On a real basis gold has lost value against currencies over that time.
Don’t get me wrong though as I’ll buy it like a demon if I think the chokers have bottled out of their positions and it stabilizers for a while. I just don’t think it’s a hedge, that all.
——–
That shit that Warren said is all political posturing to demonstrate how hard arsed they are. So when the time comes they can claim the banks are in good shape.
They wan the banks to start lending again, not kill them.
Many gold miners also have some silver, copper, uranium production – it is small ….but profits are profits.
Warren wants healthy banks, not Geithner zombies.
Shareholders have to take the hit.
they will not let the banks fall, fuckery!!
So now Soros says the banks are still fucked too. But wait didn’t we already decide they were hella profitable?
No one says gold or gold miners is buy and hold, but……it does appear that gold best the SP500 for most of the last decade? Marc Faber says he would pick gold as the asset to hold for the next 10 years if you could not trade.