No way the market has bottomed.
No way the economy is getting better.
No way Obama gets reelected if he allows the banks to bid up eachothers toxic assets with tax payer dollars.
No way Q1 earnings will buoy the market higher.
A little dose of reality is in order.
Indeud.
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Denninger’s now got an “Asshat award”
http://market-ticker.org/archives/930-Asshat-Award-John-Dugan.html
Imitation, flattery, etc.
Maybe some recalibration of the time machine is in order. If MAC and KIM could raise capital like they did, how bad can things really be? The KIM offering was oversubscribed. Yeah, I know the fundamentals for the REITS are still getting worse.
FLY, you’re a fucking pillar of good sense in a ramshackle market full of bullshit.
awesome.
“Our economy will not turn around until we face reality, because the math is never wrong, and over longer periods of time it always asserts itself”.
Great graphic on Denninger’s Ah-Award.
Fly, get your department going on one.
You know, his imitation of you is flattery…
All we will be hearing this coming week is:
How all the nasty data (including unemployment) are “lagging indicators”
Obama has run out of bomb’s…they will start to look desperate to even the common man, soon.
But count on CNBC to drone into your brains how the market is always 6-9 months ahead of the general economy.
CNBC’s money manager guests will keep telling you that we are now in a bull market….along with Cramer and “buy on a 3-5% pullback”.
They are all getting gang-banged, and they know it, it’s up to you to see beyond the lies and the b.s.
The Dow has had the largest run-up in 70 years.
No way, Jose.
Let’s all move to Tijuana.
Nah, Google Apple and Amazon will all pull magical pink rabbits out of the earnings cap and dubious call holders will become rich with mirth, and money.
We WILL re-test, but when?
Darius; Somtime June-October is what I would guess. I am not a perma-bull, just 33% long and scaling it down.
I will sue Denninger for all of his wood furniture. This is appalling. No link to me either. The gall.
Here’s the thing:
I outlined this in my CRE report. KIM’s balance sheet WAS NOT in grave danger. They were able to raise capital because of that. However, I cannot say the same about many, many others.
@Mushroomz : I was thinking June/July, but who knows, this rally has happened very fast, so in my mind, it will crash just as fast. (“Sell in May, go away” Maybe that will hold alittle truth?”
Late night drunk idea:
World governments are printing money out of thin air and they are going to do whatever it takes to re-inflate the economy in unison, because they all stand to profit from a rich market.
Now, Inflation will undoubtedly strike and the middle class down will get poorer. But, hopefully, as the belt tightens and energy becomes expensive, we will begin to utilize technology that already exist. By building a massively efficient clean energy grid, that sucks power from T Boones windmills and solar burritos, we will make good progress towards swatting inflations jump shot into the stands. Efficient = cheaper.
I believe we need to lay it all on the line and invest everything we know and have into technology that will make the world a much smarter, cleaner, more efficient place, where people on all social pegs can lead rich(er) lives.
Even CNBC’s Bob Pisanie was negative at the close…talking about the coming abortive earnings season…about the whole bank CDS buying scam, etc.
For Bob to be negative, that is unusual, he’s a perma-bull.
I just read a late article on Reuters about how this run-up will continue Monday, because of the holiday shortened week:
NEW YORK, April 3 (Reuters) – US stocks should rally further next week, if investors get more signs that the economic slump is abating and earnings season does not get off to a rocky start.
“IF” earning “Don’t get off to a ROCKY start?”
That is a big-ass “IF”
I say rotten eggs for the holiday, and now the shorts are REALLY going to HAVE to GET some BRASS BALLS to make this insane train of a “market” get into a collision with ITSELF!
For the LOVE of GOD!
Trying to ck out the China rally a bit, don’t really believe it. I think copper is just a China restock and inflation hedge. Power consumption in China is dropping, primarily from the big industrial users,
http://www.controleng.com/articleXML/LN945229799.html
Although the daily power generation grew by one percent to 9.37 billion kilowatt hours in early March, it took on a decline of about 100 million kilowatt hours every day since mid March.
Experts with CEC noted that the slowdown in electricity output may be related to sharp decline in power demand of high-energy consuming industries.
Hao Weiping, vide president with Power Department of National Energy Administration said that since power consumption in chemical, building materials, steel and non-ferrous metal industries with high-energy consumption takes a great proportion of the national power consumption, power consumption slide in theses four sectors would directly lead to decline in total.
An official with the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission said that all these four sectors have the problem of absolute excess in both capacity and output, and power consumption in these four sectors probably will decline rather than increase further in the next few years.
shhh, perception is commercial realty. or la la la something. this rally could very well extend to 1080 or so before all the newly converted unconvert, and reality becomes conception again, or lu lu lu something. i know the preceding gobble-dee-gook makes little sense. however, we should stretch upward beyond any shorts belief after waterfalling well beyond all permabulls imagination could withstand. it only stands to reason. conclusion, dips (big & scary) should be bought until the most strident bear believers can take no more pain, say uncle and decide its bull anew. then, of course, fucketh doeth commenceth.
“I love scotch.
Scotchy, scotch, scotch.
Here it goes down,
down into my belly…”
Thanks, Fly. I recognized those items from your CRE report. The thing is, you also hold out a couple more possible shoes to drop in terms of VNO and SPG having potential to spike. So the sector is still hard to short on this runup even though it looks obvious that cre gets crushed.
Who knows dude. Short term moves are impossible. All i know, they cannot fund themselves via secondaries. The debt is too big.
Exactly. In bizarro world, banks are using taxpayer money to buy toxic assets from each other … wait a minute, that’s really happening.
Meanwhile, the house across the street just got foreclosed on.
Gahhhh *runs for the hills*
A little victory dance for the clownraped:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ooNatKG-su4
Fly:
So the trillions the Fed is adding to the system and lending directly is not going to have any effect…. So the past two painful years of de-leveraging hasn’t emptied the system of a great deal of mal-investments?
Please.
We’re on the cusp of what i think is a magnificent and tradeable bull market brought on by easy money policy. Just make sure you get out in time as that’s when we’ll see the crash, nit before.
Even though the trend may be up, for a while at least, we are due a corrective pullback – probably a 318 retrace or maybe a 50% retrace.
Friday was one of the lowest volume days this year so it was easy to manipulate a close above 8000. Nice headlines for the weekend.
I expect a gap up on Monday and then the start of the pullback on Tuesday or Wednesday.
This country and this administration need guys like William Black, not Geithner or Summers:
http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/04032009/transcript1.html
Denninger also recently ripped off a Tim Knight post with no mention, no hat tip.
Very unsportsmanlike blogging ethics from Denninger.
Seems a mite hypocritical of the truth teller.
@Chris: We’ve already retraced according to the technical buyers who are running this melt up. Do a fib *fan* retracement from 03/09 to the top of this run and you’ll see the price is following the retracement perfectly. SnP is lagging, but other are running right up the line(s). We’re at the top of the trend channels, though, and that’s another story.
Exactly, There is no way this crisis is over!
I go on Yahoo! Answers from time to time to read the investing questions. Here are a couple I read last week…
“My mom and Dad haven’t been working and are running out of money. I have been looking for a job, but, no luck. I really want to help them out. Are those online survey jobs for real? Can you really make $2000+/week?”
(People are getting desperate. Good business for the scam Artist)
“My husband and I have decided to stop paying our mortgage cause we won’t be able to afford it soon. How fast will this show on your credit report?”
(My guess is they want to apply for a some more credit cards…)
NOTE: These weren’t copied and pasted, strictly from memory. There are A LOT of these questions like these. The people have no money!!
Somedude,
I realized late yesterday I was a bit to harsh in my reply to you after re-reading your comment posted towards me. MY BAD!! Don’t take it personal DUDE!!
I’m still long FAZ in SIZE and slept like a baby last nite.
JR
The Rigid Rod of Reality is sitting just off the road on his Harley, revving up.
Fly say what you want but I keep hearing about massive hirings everywhere here in Chicago. I posted them last night. With this going on there is no way we fall under 800 again. This is the age of entitlement and dammit I am entitled to a straigth up recovery.
Well maybe that was firings and not hirings but hell what’s the difference, its all good news whether its 700k lost or gained. Plus everyone is psyched for the main event tonight, we will soon experience 18 hole in ones.
Fly,
Let me tell you something about human nature. After a person sees their stock portfolio drop by 50%,their home values drop by 40%, and their job in jeopardy, the animal spirits come out and their ready to spend. S&P 1700 baby. It’s like Phil Gramm said the US is in a mental recession. This has nothing to do with reality.
Seems to me that Fly (and most everyone else here) is missing the obvious re bad balance-sheeted CRE. In a world where the government is intent on devaluing debt, the indebted are bailed-out at the expense of the cash-rich.
The way to align yourself with the bad balanced-sheeted FED and US Treasury, is to be long bad balance sheeted companies where the stock price still reflects the old-fashioned thinking that a dollar owed is a dollar owed …and to be short the dollar – – especially with the G20 refusing to go along with our insanity.
Agreed Fly,
but there is an old saying by that goes something like “the market can stay irrational longer than investors can stay solvent.”
And in American history, very few presidents were not re-elected for a second term. And that would make it a low probability bet.
Slim, I don’t know whether you’re talking tongue in cheek or not but sadly, that strategy will prob work. Drives me insane to see Govt do what it is doing but I think the reality is that we have seen the bottom, and yes, things will get better, but at a massive price down the road. I would have much preferred to go through the pain now, let a good % of the banks go under, and let the system work through and destroy the weak businesses instead of this communist save everyone hell strategy that we’re on right now.
But again, since we are pumping $$ to anyone who needs it then yes, we have seen the bottom, and things will get better. But once they do, and inflation comes, god help us all.
We could have had 3-4 years of bleak years and then restarted the economy with a clean slate. Instead we took the shortcut and now will pay for this for many many years.
Buckeye:
Right about the restocking. The Baltic Dry Index had a huge run during Jan. and Feb. It’s been down 14 consecutive days. Iron ore inventories are piling up at Chinese ports, due to weak steel production, which pulls down the electricty usage numbers.
http://en.ce.cn/Industries/Basic-industries/200903/24/t20090324_18592791.shtml
i fully understand our job is to make money in down markets and up, but you sheep are not looking at the big picture, and this picture Will affect not only your trading, but your life. These top American Officials have also assured President Medvedev that new laws being written by the Obama administration will ‘completely’ reform the American financial system by fully integrating it into a single Global Economy due to be enacted during the coming G-20 summit in London.
When President Medvedev voiced his concerns to the Americans over his belief that the US Congress would not allow such a radical new set of laws to pass, these reports continue, Kissinger stated that the American people were being ‘primed’ to overwhelm their lawmakers into swiftly enacting ‘in its entirety’ the Obama administrations new banking and financial laws by the outrageous behavior of those collapsed financial giants that includes: 1.) The insurance giant AIG which after receiving over $300 billion in US taxpayer money paid out nearly $200 million in bonuses; 2.) The collapsed stock selling giant Merrill Lynch which after receiving $20 billion in US taxpayer money paid out $3.6 billion in bonuses; and 3.) The collapsed US banking giant Citigroup who after receiving $45 billion in US taxpayer money announced a $10 million redecoration of their executive office suites.
News from the United States today further confirm Kissinger’s assertions to President Medvedev as US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has now admitted that he had ordered US Senator Christopher Dodd to include the executive pay provision into the stimulus bill which was, in fact, a loophole allowing these controversial bonuses to be paid out.
To such machinations being utilized by their supposed ‘leaders’ against them in order to pave the road from a once sovereign United States to this New World Order these Americans remain nearly clueless, but when pressed by President Medvedev on the plans to ensure that civil society on the North American continent doesn’t break down Kissinger reportedly replied, “By September we’ll have confiscated all privately owned guns so it really doesn’t matter what we do, we’ll still be in charge”.
An example of poor, and yes, even “dangerous” business reporting:
Example: The header makes it seem as if bank bondholders have escaped “scot-free” from the pain that equity holders have born over these last two years. But what they are talking about, essentially, is that they are still receiving nominal interest payments, the principal values be damned. Absolute idiocy… see the following excerpt:
For example, investors who took part in a $1 billion 30-year bond offering by Citigroup in 2002 are still being paid a 6.625 percent yearly return on each $1,000 invested and are scheduled to be paid back in full when the bonds mature in 2032. If they sold now, they would get about half that value since bonds of that vintage are currently trading at around 56 cents on the dollar.
Duh!
____________
i’m long weapons, ammo and jack daniels you fucking sheep.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3dENsduWXrg
Here’s what I’m looking for in terms of inflation plays over the next few months.
Fuck gold, commodity plays etc. The real potential could be in infrastructure plays with low debt. Some of them have high debt, but others also have low(ish) leverage along with a legislated inflation pass through. There are various plays like that such as pipelines etc. and toll roads although you have to be careful with toll roads as they are seeing a drop off in traffic etc.
If the inflation scare shows up these assets they could be worth more than raw market plays like commods and gold etc. as they will behave like inflation linked bonds with the possibility that the value of the assets getting an uplift sizable through inflation of the fear of inflation. Then if there is a sort of recovery which is seen to be based on monetary expansion this shit could actually double and more over the next few years at the most.
For instance I nibbled at a hybrid fund that has been beaten down over the the course of the last few months. It has around 40% leverage however their debt comes due in 2018 and they have inflation pass through. One asset they own is a pipeline from the Australian gas fields to a major city while another asset is a water company in the UK. There is next to no chance of getting another pipeline as I’m sure it will be met with severe resistance from the usual rat pack like the aboriginals if it goes over “scared land” or greenies if one single spotted owl was ever sighted in a fucking tree that need to be cut down.
The EV for the gas line is around $850 estimate while the water company has an EV of about $700. They have around $1 billion of debt coming due in 2018.
The stock is trading at 75 cents.
Now if a serious inflation scare comes up in the next couple of years the EV on this shit could double as the inflation pass though could become hugely interesting especially for the real money accounts who no doubt will run over themselves to get inflation protection. You don’t even need inflation… just the scare will do in order to get this space moving quickly.
I believe we need to lay it all on the line and invest everything we know and have into technology that will make the world a much smarter, cleaner, more efficient place, where people on all social pegs can lead rich(er) lives.
That’s a great sentiment, but guess what? That’s what people in this world are always trying to do, exigent circumstances or not.
It’s a lot easier to pull these technological breakthroughs off when investment capital is freely available and not on the run from the graspy central gov’t, however.
Something to think about.
__________
Russian Intelligence reports state that gun ownership statistics in the United States vary widely, but is estimated to be that nearly 50 percent of US households have nearly 270 million guns, none of which these Americans seem now ready to part with without a fight.
But, new reports coming from the United States show that they are fast adopting the tactics used by the German Nazis to disarm their society prior to the installation of fascist rule and martial law by first rendering all private guns useless by eliminating and restricting the ammunition they use. And from new reports coming from the United States we can see that this ‘plan’ is already being instituted with ammunition shortages being reported in Idaho, Georgia, and Louisiana, and a new law just introduced in California which would:
1. Stop the private transfer between individuals of more than 50 rounds of ammunition.
2. License and tax anyone selling handgun ammunition commercially and force these stores to get background checks on anyone selling ammunition.
3. Get a thumbprint from anyone buying handgun ammunition.
4. Ban all ammunition sales that don’t take place face-to- face, in other words, ban mail-order sales.
Even more chilling for American gun owners was the Obama administrations order to the US Military on March 12 which stated: “Effective immediately DOD Surplus, LLC, will be implementing new requirements for mutilation of fired shell casings. The new DRMS requirement calls for DOD Surplus personnel to witness the mutilation of the property and sign the Certificate of Destruction.” which would have crippled the US ammunition industry, who are the largest purchasers of used military ammunition brass, but after found out about by US Senators was quickly withdrawn.
To the reasons feared by the leadership class in the United States of their citizens retaining the right to firearms we can read:
“As the growing world-wide economic crisis deepens, military forces from Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom are preparing to meet angry citizens on the street. The economic crisis – and the public outrage it is causing – is at the forefront of intelligence agencies and military forces in the western world.
Prominent trends forecaster Gerald Celente has been sounding the alarm for years, warning that riots and tax revolts are coming to America. The Pentagon, U. K. Ministry of Defense, and Canadian military apparently agree. In November of 2008 the United States Army War College released the report Known Unknowns: Unconventional “Strategic Shocks” in Defense Strategy Development. The report identifies economic collapse as a reason for the defense establishment to conduct domestic operations. The report states,
“Widespread civil violence inside the United States would force the defense establishment to reorient priorities in extremis to defend basic domestic order and human security. Deliberate employment of weapons of mass destruction or other catastrophic capabilities, unforeseen economic collapse, loss of functioning political and legal order, purposeful domestic resistance or insurgency…”
The CIA and MI5 are both watching the economic situation for signs of unrest and political instability. As the Washington Post reports, the CIA has added an economic situation report to its threat assessment for the White House. A further sign that the United States government is anticipating widespread unrest comes with the domestic stationing of the 1st Brigade Combat Team of the 3rd Infantry Division. The Army Times reports,
“They may be called upon to help with civil unrest and crowd control or to deal with potentially horrific scenarios such as massive poisoning and chaos in response to a chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear or high-yield explosive, or CBRNE, attack.”
I think these #’s are correct
8 Trillion Market Wealth Gone
8 Trillion Home Wealth Gone
6 Million and counting Jobs gone 700k per month
3-Trillion injection into the system.
The 90% of working America is hunkered the fuck down right now.
Saturn yesterday, shut down in Kansas City… Saw this on the news…this is the 1st inning folks
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pHrXjuq_guY&feature=related
This is the bottom if you believe we are going to have a V recovery…for those that think a bankrupt GM and Chrysler in conjunction with a Bank Bail-Out happy Government is going to drive the recovery get long 3x BAC..F..GM..
So this is what a chart looks like of the “The Great Recession of 08-09
http://dshort.com/charts/bears/four-bears-large.gif
Speaking of CNBC….Good Lord!!! What a steaming pile of shit they have become. 1st they let the one Superstar reporter of the entire network walk. 2nd they put a muzzle on Rick Santelli. 3rd they had to of had a sit down with
Mark Haines and tell him to brighten up or out. Thank God for Fly and his community for anybody who wants to follow the daily market. Today I’ll think I’ll punt my $9.95 CNBC feed to the office.
“IF” earning “Don’t get off to a ROCKY start?”
That is a big-ass “IF”
Kipling-esque, even.
What did you think of RIMM’s earnings?
_______
“I love scotch.
Scotchy, scotch, scotch…”
ROFLMAO!!
______
Who knows dude. Short term moves are impossible. All i know, they cannot fund themselves via secondaries. The debt is too big.
Keep in mind the debt only needs to be rolled (or “shored,” if you will) until the market recovers, so this new equity can be seen as “foundation capital.”
It need not be the whole structure.
_________
Meanwhile, the house across the street just got foreclosed on.
Ironically, this is a sign of bank health, given the circumstances. The bank foreclosing actually has the balls to put this particular bad debt on its balance sheet.
Odd, no?
_______
I expect a gap up on Monday and then the start of the pullback on Tuesday or Wednesday.
Sometimes I can’t figure this board out. Maybe that’s why the PPT, in the end, is a better place, as entertaining and spontaneous as this one is.
I’ve read a lot of things I agree with on this thread, but nothing moreso than the above.
And yet, you had two “neg karmas” and no “up karmas” by the time I saw it.
Odd.
No?
The Rigid Rod of Reality is sitting just off the road on his Harley, revving up.
You said that last week, when he was still changing his plugs.
Be cautioned, that purty waitgirl in the red tube top at Black Slim’s Biker Bar just dandled a Stroh’s Light out the drive-up window…
_________
The way to align yourself with the bad balanced-sheeted FED and US Treasury, is to be long bad balance sheeted companies where the stock price still reflects the old-fashioned thinking that a dollar owed is a dollar owed …and to be short the dollar – – especially with the G20 refusing to go along with our insanity.
Molto, molto bene!
Sorry Chris, but this post beats even yours.
Summary: If you can keep one thing “top of my mind” in the next couple of years, let it be this:
WATCH THE DOLLAR!”
____________________
iBankCoin…has executed Larry Kudlow.”
————————–
ROFLMAO !!!
Gawd…if only…
.
Watcher,
No, not tongue in cheek – and I agree that it is sad.
Short your depression-hardened, save-for-a-rainy-day, grandparents;
Long the in-hock, hummer-driving guy down the street with the size five baseball cap.
The market has bottomed …… http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/30018200#30018200
And in American history, very few presidents were not re-elected for a second term. And that would make it a low probability bet.
Few Americans were as dimwitted about economics as Jimmy Carter, and Papa Bush.
_________
We could have had 3-4 years of bleak years and then restarted the economy with a clean slate. Instead we took the shortcut and now will pay for this for many many years.
This is an epic comment day for iBC. Excellent, excellent.
One thing I might add — this started in 1913, was continued in 1933 with the suspension of gold ownership, and truly “finished” in 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window.
Our currency is now truly “fiat,*” and thus, we’re drawn to an inevitable conclusion.
Make sure you are prepared by accumulating PM’s and strategic commodities, like a hungry rat, quietly munching from the inside of a funnel of caramel corn.
____________
*(ironies abound, do they not?)
________
To such machinations being utilized by their supposed ‘leaders’ against them in order to pave the road from a once sovereign United States to this New World Order these Americans remain nearly clueless, but when pressed by President Medvedev on the plans to ensure that civil society on the North American continent doesn’t break down Kissinger reportedly replied, “By September we’ll have confiscated all privately owned guns so it really doesn’t matter what we do, we’ll still be in charge”.
Unfortunately, on days like this, with such great commentary, we often note swings to the “wackjob” side of things.
Listen, “Mr. Sheeple” — I’m as conservative as anyone you’d ever want to meet, but I also am well grounded in common sense.
Let’s look at it from a “manipulator’s” standpoint — which more shadowy and nefarious figure in American history (that’s still alive, at least) would you rather have spoken such highly dubious words as the above, were you seeking to “manipulate” a response?
We’re just lucky J. Edgar Hoover or Nelson Rockefeller are dead, I guess.
Think about it, and think about whose being a “sheep” here the next time the “donation” cup from above “source” comes around.
___________
Jake,
what do you think is the best strategy going forward, say intermediate-longer term portfolio. Long gold, swiss francs, oil and various commodities via DBC, and Short USD and Treasuries via TBT.
Am I missing anything big?
i’m long weapons, ammo and jack daniels you fucking sheep.
Party on, Rambo.
_______
One has to wonder what the end game is going to be. Out here in the trenches it’s plain to see that banks are foreclosing and/or calling in all kinds of contracts.
I was just talking with a customer who is a corporate pilot for a regional engineering firm that usually does pretty well. He told me that when the excrement hit the air moving device back in January, Citizens bank called in the loan they had on one of the firms twin engine prop planes. Just jerked the rug out from under them with no notice whatsoever. “Note is due in full” or something like that. The company was actually ahead on their payments from what he understood. They had to let the plane go back to the bank. So now the bank has an airplane which no one will buy instead of a nice stable payment being made every month.
Banks are foreclosing on all kinds of housing and property loans and Lord knows there must be like 80% of the housing in the US mortgaged for nearly 100% of true cash value right now.
So what happens when all the foreclosures are done, 25% of the population is unemployed, and 75% of the rest can’t make enough money to bring the ends together anymore? The banks or the Gubmint will own everything but no one will have anything to buy these assets with.
What happens then?
Indeed to your, “indeud.” Patience is truly a virtue these days.
ZM
There are various plays like that such as pipelines etc. and toll roads although you have to be careful with toll roads as they are seeing a drop off in traffic etc.
An Aussie stumping for McQuarrie (sp?)Funds?
I can’t believe it!
😉
_______
Why is everybody trying to be early with the inflation trade? Japan pursued QE, ZIRP and multiple fiscal stimulus efforts over a 15-20 year period and they never really got out of the deflation trap.
So now we’re pursuing the exact same QE, ZIRP, and bullshit government spending policies. But we expect a different result? Where is the pricing power when we have excess capacity in everything: autos, houses, steel, labor, etc?
As soon as the FED gets the first sniff of price stability, they’re going start sucking out the excess liquidity they’ve created to try to prevent an inflationary spiral. Try is the operative word. But making the bet now that they will fail seems premature. Inflation is probably the last thing to worry about with 10% savings rate and an unemployment rate on its way to 10%.
Watcher:
what do you think is the best strategy going forward, say intermediate-longer term portfolio. Long gold, swiss francs, oil and various commodities via DBC, and Short USD and Treasuries via TBT.
Am I missing anything big?
I would sub out the swiss francs (I trust no fiat going forward) for GDX and a passel of silver miners (SLW, PAAS, SSRI), as I think they are more undervalued compared to their metals than anything on the market. RGLD is also in my long term portfolio and has been for almost 40 points. All of these leverage the PM’s, of which GLD and SLV should be in your “core” holdings.
____________
Japan pursued QE, ZIRP and multiple fiscal stimulus efforts over a 15-20 year period and they never really got out of the deflation trap.
When was the yen the world’s reserve currency?
_______
Unfortunately, on days like this, with such great commentary, we often note swings to the “wackjob” side of things. let time be the deciding factor whether or not i am a “wackjob.”
baaa…baaa.
No question, time will be a deciding factor.
But with all due respect, look to Occam’s Razor — nut job doomsday scenarios have been with us since the Founding, and we’ve been through worse economic times (or at least, “as bad”) without the Republic folding.
What’s more, we’ve a well armed, educated populace with access to far better forms of communication (like this one!) than even 20 years ago.
Do you really think “the New World Order” can just take over with no fuss, no muss?
And seriously, your cliched reference to “sheep” (“bahhing” for goodness sakes?) is not helping strengthen your argument in any way. It’s the worst “Yahoo!”- message board behavior.
Come with some logic and reasoning and you’ll be far more likely to begin convincing the people (no, not “sheeple”) that read these comments.
_________
________
the new world order is still just some fanciful conspiracy theory to most americans and global citizens. i understand that people find it hard to believe that something like this can come down on the american people’s heads. jake… i want to be an optimist. i want good times just as much as the other guy. i cannot, however, cast a blind eye to the thievery and deception placed upon us by the oligarchs in the banking and government institutions. i fail to believe that our financial crisis, which has delivered pain and despair to millions of people, was simply an anomaly that no one saw coming. i cannot look away with a spirit of complacency when, in my heart i know hank paulson lied to us. bernanke, geithner, thain, fuld… lied to us. dodd, frank, pelosi… lied to us. rubin, summers, cayne, lewis and dimon lied to us. besides the outright greed, you begin to see the complicity of it all. you must ask yourself… why aren’t any of these people being brought up on charges. because they are all intertwined in the biggest fraud in the world, affecting people across the globe.
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/wall-street-back-to-its-criminal-ways.html
But, but, Fly likes Scooby Doo Denninger. He posts his crappy YouTube videos all the time. Heck, he even has him linked as a tier I blogger on the sidebar. HAHAHAHAHA!! Gay Dee sux donkey ballz and Fly has a man crush! HAHAHAHAHA!!
The market will be artificially pumped up to new levels, to give artificial praise to the concept of the New World Order with Obama at the helm. This is how the masses will be taught to believe in the New World Order — and they will believe in it, because most of them still believe the mainstream media.
In fact, the masses will remain glued to the mainstream media because it makes them believe that if they don’t know what’s going on at all times via the media, they may suffer for it one way or another, since this is such a “dangerous” world, afterall.
The artificial market pump will serve a second purpose: it will hide the natural market pump that will come about through hyperinflation of the US dollar.
Yes, your stocks may be worth more, but the underlying dollar is worth less, which is why your stocks are worth more. In fact, everything will go through the roof due to hyperinflation.
So hold onto your hats. This market rally will be the biggest rally we have ever seen in our lives. It will be the welcoming Kissinger/Rockefeller salute to their pride and joy — say hello to Baby Jesus, aka the New(born) World Order.
We’ll see if I am right. Makes sense to be me, though.
Actually the japanese were very stingy with QE and he process only really started in 2001 which they ended in 2002.
So the lost decade really not marked by a period of QE by the Japanese. It was marked as a period of fucking around and dithering.
As a high savings nation at the time QE was not high on their agenda.
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Interesting sets of statistics I picked up the other day.
The US NET overseas debt position… that is foreign owed vs foreign debt owned is 17%. Of that 86% is in US Dollars (the magic of a reserve currency)
Arnold says (in a far more rational post):
…why aren’t any of these people being brought up on charges. because they are all intertwined in the biggest fraud in the world, affecting people across the globe.
I happen to agree in the near 100 year long complacency trap of the Fiat Fraud, as it were. Essentially, the people you have named MUST continue the same stupid policies they have been perpetuating since the Fed was established, or the house of cards falls, and anarchy ensues. Whether they should be prosecuted for something that’s been law since 1913 (and fractional reserve banking even before the Fed), is almost an after thought.
My point however, is that we are a long way from those idiots you named seeking One World ZOG Gov’t and confiscating guns.
A long way.
Now I don’t doubt that there are certain on the left who think “the Federation” from Star Trek was a great idea, but there are likely just as many who see sovreignity as a better way to keep a buck. And they too, are fiat slaves.
I just don’t go for the “grand conspiracy.” More like the grand complacency, leading to panic.
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Mr Gint said:
(I just don’t go for the “grand conspiracy.” More like the grand complacency, leading to panic.)
I think it’s more like complacency by the masses (sheeple)
and conspiracy by the NWO crowd who either think they know more than the rest of us or are so highly arrogant that they actually want to consolidate all power (money) in the world under their control. There may be more than meets the eye here. You know…….the old walks like a duck, quacks like a duck thing.
yea… you’re probably right jake. let me keep eating my oatmeal and reading my journal in the morning, i’m sure everything will work out. you’re right… it’s been like this for so long, it’s useless to try and change it. let’s just accept apathy, right jake. fuck off jake… you’re part of the fucking problem.