For the record, “The Fly” wins again, by avoiding a loss. I know my limitations, unlike many of you Son of Sam, Yankee bastards. I knew the market was due to stomp a good ol’ fashioned Texas mudhole through my face, so I stepped to the sideline. Mind you, I was wise enough to avoid a lashing or two, by being in 100% sweet Southern cash. That’s right, “The Fly” avoided assured market losses via taking himself out of the market, ever so gingerly. I would have done all sorts of horrendous deeds, such as short sale something on Friday.
Just so you know, “The Fly” is now assuming to be a “Southern Gentleman,” with all of its fine trimmings—accent and all, in the day of the good Lord, March 23rd, 2009. I’ve got my collard greens served and corn bread biscuits in my mouth; and I am entirely conducting myself like a true son of the south. Why accept anything less?
So you know, I am dressed in an all white suit (similar to Col. Sanders), hat and all, with a fine flower attached to my jacket lapel. I reckon you Yankees out yonder find yourselves in a regular mess, considering your little hot shot Wall Street stock market is fixin’ to treat you like a pig master. Never fear, us southerners are here, BBQ spare ribs and all.
In case y’all wonderin’, I will not be participating in today’s hoopla, for it is not synonymous with the prescribed behavior (heavy accent here folks) of a gentleman from Fredericksburg, which is a fine city in the great state of Virginia.
Many of you are bouncing around the walls, as if it were a funhouse. Settle down now. You pig gentleman need to live within your means, God dammit. I apologize for taking the Lord’s name in vain. It shan’t not happen again. Do not take this as anything more than what it is: you are undeserving of a morning cup of tea, let alone coffee. You shall and will abide by the laws of nature and find yourself dutiful employment over there at Walmart, instead of collecting your Yankee welfare and charging things to those credit cards. It’s the work of the Devil himself, I swear to it.
As for me, I will just kick back, smoke a few cigars, sip on some fine brandy, and continue to watch my manners. In case y’all is wonderin’, I will not be stepping back into the market today, since I am so terribly burdened with the dispensation of an awfully big career maneuver.
Y’all Come Back Now,
Southern Fried Fly
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Are you sure that white suit with the flower isn’t more like the Don from NYC?
The Southerners I know now wear flip flops and shirts with palm trees on them.
Part of an excerpt from one of the big houses.
Quantitative easing in the US
We have the following points:
(1) Big picture: Policy makers might at long last be getting ahead of the curve.
The Swiss National Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Bank
of Canada have joined the Fed in quantitative easing, with the latter four
announcing that they will buy government bonds. This is step 1.
The other critical policy initiatives we need are: (a) more fiscal easing by the
countries with excess savings (i.e. Asia and Germany) and (b) a plan to ring-
fence banks’ toxic assets.
(2) What has been done? The Fed will buy $300bn of long-dated
Treasuries (5% of outstanding Treasuries) and increases its MBS
purchases to $1.25trn (14% of outstanding MBS; from $500bn). The Fed
also increases its purchases of agency debt from $100bn to $200bn (4% of
outstanding agency debt).
Thus the total amount of liquidity becoming newly available is $1.125tn. This
corresponds to 8% of GDP. The QE efforts in the UK, announced two weeks
ago, correspond to nearly 10% of GDP (although the amount of gilts being
bought was about three times larger than the amount of Treasuries being
bought).
The Fed total balance sheet with this and other plans in place could more than
double to be a third of GDP. This is highly significant.
For the record, in 2001 the Bank of Japan only bought JGBs at annualized rate
of 3% of GDP (and it did not work! However, the US numbers we are seeing
now are much more significant.)
The other critical announcement is that the Fed’s TALF programme will consider
buying ‘other assets’- i.e. going down the risk spectrum. Indeed members of our
fixed income team believe that this was the critical part of last night’s
announcement!
This is pretty important shit.
Read this part again. Here i’ll paste it again for you fuckers.
The Fed total balance sheet with this and other plans in place could more than double to be a third of GDP. This is highly significant.
Fucking A this is pretty significant. The Fed is basically financing 33% of GDP.
Do with it what you want, however if anyone thinks 33% is definitely not going to work then the question should be asked what would happen if the fed went higher, because they will.
I’m not telling anyone to be bullish or bearish on this as they’re all old enough and ugly enough to make their own decisions.
And finally the frog idiot at the ECB said they will also begin their own operation.
Bernanke is not behaving like a boy from S. Carolina.
Fly? Are you on a front porch? In a rocking chair? Sipping your 2nd or 3rd Mint Julip? Laughing as the slaves labor away? Thought so.
Virginia is a commonwealth, you Yankee.
bought ESLR 1.49 for longer term acct
As a matter of fact I am Mr. Mushroomz.
Punyandy, I reckon Virginia is still a state good friend.
Off to go mind my temper, before I act ungentlemanlike.
Fly:
Don’t miss the boat here. Your gains could be eaten away by the monthly inflation rate by mid April 🙂
Someone read a little Tom Sawyer or Huck Finn this weekend?
I think fly is gearing up for the second civil war.
you damn yankees!!!!!
Carpetbagger
I wonder which private fund will step up to the plate first to buy some shit from the banks, and at what price?
You forget the rutabagas.
In the good ole days, the FED conducted monetary policy by buying and selling treasurys in open market transactions. Now it’s loading its balance sheet with all sorts of garbagio. Good luck trying to swap that junk for cash when/if the economy turns up and they need to suck out liquidity to keep inflation in check.
Back to eating my BBQ spare ribs and pancake breakfast.
Glad to see Mr. Fly paying Southern respects.
If you truly are in Virginia, and do not give me a call or an email so that I might deliver a fine cigar or bottle of whiskey, well…I’ll have to call some of my boys out in F’burg to pay you a less than cordial visit.
Of course PIMCO jumps in. They are in bed with the government from the start. The government buying a lot of agency debt saved their ass before. Now they are going to take advantage again.
so with the US nationalizing the banks, the fed suddenly has an interest in “privatizing” the US?
Carpetbagger…
Said the Hoosier.
_____________
T moe……why do you think they call it PIMPCO??
BTW — if you’re really in F’burg today, please recognize that you are in a lower suburb of Alexandria, which, due to its recent overweighting in fed’l gummint employees, is in turn is fixing to secede to Maryland and other Yanquified points north.
In other words, you’re not South enough yet. Check the local bars for Scotch.
_______
I like that, let’s use leverage to fix the leverage problem. Brillant!
ARST 11.60
LONG
continue
We done got us here a bottom as big as ain’t jamima. Fly when are you fixin to get back in here market?
Moe:
they’re trying to reverse engineer one huge almighty reverse dutch auction and it could work. Take a look at the story. They’re conducting a multi-pronged attack with the funds being just one part of it.
The big part, the part these fuckers like Pimp Co are focusing on is the bit where it says the Fed is going to be buying lesser quality CMB’s.
Furthermore the Funds carry very little risk. And don’t think for the moment that they haven’t sussed out who’s going to be in or out. They know exactly who is participating.
The idea is to get the shit out of the banks assets side at at good rate to the banks and leave that balance sheets look prim and proper. The other thing is that the Fed and the funds will not have to worry about mark to market as they can carry the shit to maturity.
this is another fucking huge subsidy to the banks…
Adding in monetary easing and they’re doing their very best to create another bubble in real estate or at least get the buyers to start holding and stop it falling. Once they do that that shit looks a lot better.
Final story.. The taxpayer loses because they’re inflating like hell and debasing the currency. However if everyone does it around the world they have a clear conscience and maintain denialability.
They’re pricks.
well, here in the South…
…we got “cornbread”…and we got “biscuits”…
…but we sure in’hell ain’t got no “cornbread biscuits” !
With all due respect, of course !
.
I never met a yankee I liked Fly, you’ll never pass for a southerner. Stay in maggoty NYC.
I predict short term inflation in this long term deflation spiral, but I think the actions of the fed are going to hit so hard and fast, that they’re actually going to hike interest rates. Immediately after, the current spending and stimulous being done will look like peanuts, and eventually Japan and China will look to sell treasuries, and THEN massive hyper inflation will take over until the US dollar is as worthless as the paper it’s printed on.
This isn’t going to be like the late 70s when gold took off, it’s going to be a much rockier ride. skyrocket up, plummet down, skyrocket way up.
Ultimately gold will be worth 10k an ounce, which will be just enough to pay for your taxes…
But foretunately, with the money Japan’s invested in nanotechnology, and the money that they gain by selling treasuries, the play station 4 will be really really sweet!
Unfortunately it will cost an ounce of gold
Averaged into some more SRS at 61.50 and DUG at 24.10
Jedi mind fake. In this one it is strong.
I added to long Asssie/Yen, Shorted a new position in Euro Aussie (believe the eurotrash-land will go next) and keeping my aussie long.
positioned in big size however my stops are now at my break even. if they get me I won’t lose capital .. as i think this could be a huge trade.
You’re just making fun of me now, aren’t you?
Psst: BOOM breaking out, 8.35 as I type. 12 coming soon to a terminal near you.
we down here have “rubber” biscuits……bow bow bow…..ramma lamma ding dong..
J – earlier you mentioned that ECB announced they will begin their own operation.
When you say operation – do you mean their own version of todays bank plan, talf, quant easing, or all?
Also, ins’t the ECB’s singular mission to protect their currency? Wouldn’t starting any “operation” pretty much go against their rules? And, who makes/made their rules?
Thx in advance
The same crew that was pumping Pink Sheet penny stocks back in the late a 80’s have been moving through the food chain to point were they are now slurping anything in they can squeeze between their baleen lined mouth. The same plot applied to a even larger group. Nothing new. The larger the scam the dumber the scammee. They know that. It’s all been dress rehearsal up until now. Sniff.
Quant easing, Eric.
Sorry that’s what i meant.
———————
An example of how sovereign wealth funds will get out of currencies an into straight investments to protect themselves against debasement. We’ll see much more of this over the next few months.
Daimler Shares Rise On Abu Dhabi Firm’s $2.7 Bln Investment
I why I think gold is not the right investment. Strong balance sheets with great franchises will attract SOV investments in a huge way
Come on Pro Traders start cheasing prices so I can Skim some money when the market shows itself in a low risk high reward mode. I am with the FLY for now.
Fly- Now that you are a Southern Boy I have to ask you where you will be buying your moonshine as Marvin “Popcorn”
Sutton and his still is now silent.
R.I.P.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123759972941001681.html
FAZ
it is a gift to traders today!
Boomer-
How much did you end up netting on BOOM’s rise and fall?
Fly, how do you get the BBQ sauce stains off of your fine white suit?
PS:
That low risk high reward could be higher just as much as lower so don’t try to be cute. If you have to give into your human traits please use trailing stops and make your trades small.
I would not fuck with FAZ today.
reply to
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/216235/Are-Peter-Schiff-and-the-Gold-Bugs-Wrong-Again?tickers=^gspc,GLD,GDX,UUP,UDN?sec=topStories
Someone should remind this author who the secretary of treasury is… it’s a FORMER FED Chairman, who probably has his “buddys” interests in mind before yours or mine… just like Paulson. The us declared bankruptcy in 1933 and functions under emergency powers. That means the secretary of treasury runs the economy… In other words the fed has THEIR GUY in charge of the economy. So even if the US government is the one that controls things, they’re really not, unless congress does something.
Can someone send me an email explaining to me how this guy can say the fed only controls a small amount of the overal money? Not owns, controls as the article states.
I realize that something like only 10-20% of all money is physical, but if the fed doesn’t own the nonphysical, who does? Technically the government insures it, but they have no way of paying it all back at once.
In fact if they borrowed all the money the world had, and everyone wanted cash, they could only pay 10% of it awithout printing more. So the government certainly doesn’t have any control over the credit.
They can issue bonds (which is government debt) to pay everyone back, but that’s a liability for them which the tax payer must pay, OR, they must inflate the currency to make it an asset to hold debt, since they will be able to pay back the money they lend out with dollars that are worth a lot less.
but these bonds can only be redeemed for cash if there is enough of it printed.
Certainly individual banks can lend, but where do they get that money to lend? The fed!
The way I understand it is that the banks borrow phyical money FROM the fed, and then USE that money as collateral to issue loans.
all credit exists because of the physical supply of money. For every $1 the fed issues, every other bank may issue something like $10. Sure congress could pass a law saying otherwize, but under the current laws, the fed only needs to control 10% of the physical curreny and it controls the rest in credit.
Sure, the federal government has the FDIC to back it, but how can they back it without the physical money to give everyone. The truth is, if everyone demanded their money back, the government wouldn’t have enough money to pay it…
Obviously a run on the banks would be deflationary, but a loss in confidence of the US government would lead to a rise in gold prices.
The individual banks cannot function without the fed.
Look, the fed prints out $10 , $1 to each bank. Each bank lends $10 of credit, there is now $100 in the system…
Now say 10 individuals go out an buy a home, they lend the money, they have a home built for them. So the 10 people pay the builder $10, and now all the builders “deposit that $10” into the bank. There’s $100 now deposited. It used to be you could not lend without PHYSICAL dollars, and before that you actually had to have silver, but now the banks can then use that $100 as collateral and issue out $1,000 100 times the amount of physcial cash.
So the process continues… But just because the banks can issue out this money and the banks have the ultimate choice, and the people choose what to borrow, that does not mean the fed does not have control…
Here’s proof: If the fed stopped printing money, what would happen? Well there would be $10 phyical dollars in the world, So if suddenly a,ll this phony wealth wanted to be withdrawn, it’s a run on the banks, MAYBE one bank survives, which the fed can then take over.
The fed can control the deflation by taking it all away, every bank goes under and guess who’s in charge, the fed. But if not by deflation, the fed could still issue out trillions and trillions of dollars (however much they can actually do phycially), and then if any bank takes you, you better be sure the banks are going to LEND that money. It’s an “everyone for himself mentality because if the bank doesn’t borrow while everyone else is, that banks not going to have enough to pay for the massive inflation.
The government certainly can control inflation to some extent by selling treasuries which is what they’ve done. Basically they say, okay, we’ll give you $103 in a year if you give us $100. They’re able to pay for the future value of inflation. But what happens when suddenly no one will buy treasuries? the fed will be 100% control indirectly. Sure, they might just be the bowling ball, and not the bowling pins, but they can set in force the series of events that lead to a huge collapse.
On the other hand, the fed has the enormous power, of giving away free money, or even PAYING banks to borrow money. with all the stimulous in the economy, and the trillions and trillions of dollars of credit,if everyone goes and borrows stuff, and the bubble is returned like geitner wants, for every trillion the bank has in EITHER cash or credit, they can loan another 10trillion.
The wildcard is that obama can raise taxes on the businesses, this has some positive effects in curbing inflation because what business or person aspiring to be a business would want to borrow a lot of money, if they are going to be taxed to death.
But there’s too many loopholes available since every single major corperation is involved in paying for the campaignes that help the congress get elected, so regardless, those loopholes will exist, and corperations can simply borrow 10 times the amount of money they have from a bank, then raise more money by selling shares to public, then invest all of that money into business and make a whole lot of money, then reinvest that money in to their business, and everything they made is pretaxible income that they use so they defer the taxes on their gains over and over again.
So ultimately all the money will be invested
And by the way, who owns the fed? it’s a privately held stock held by several banks themselves. Essentially the fed is founded to make money of the bankers, by the bankers and for the bankers.
If anything the credit means the fed has MORE power because of this.
Whats tto stop the major bankss and the fed from printing out tons of money, over and over and over again?
And oh yeah, the fed can buy treasuries owning more and more of the us government. It’s merely a counter move to the government trying to take back control by nationalizing the banks, now the fed counters by privatizing the US govt. So although the US govt owns more of the bank, the fed owns the us government… they can buy up all of the treasuries, and hold us at ransom, threatening to create a massively inflationary environment simply by selling all of them, all at once immediately after printing a bunch of money.
Buying up treasuries gives the government the feeling of security to allow looser lending practices and allow more money into the system, and it might even fool the banks into lending, and the boom will fool people into borrowing. The fed can simply then create massive inflation and take it to another level, and then suddenly create deflation, and then inflation again, which ill result in china and japan losing faith as they will visually see that the fed, has complete control over things and they have no reason to try to play in a game against the fed which controls all of the money…
Why in the world would you want to accept a promise of the US govt to payback everything it owes and then some, when they cannot do so in a deflationary environment, and can just inflate the currency at a faster rate then japan or china is making in interest by owning the treasuries?
So basically the deal is, you give us the US $100, and we’ll give you $103 a year from now… the only thing is, you give us chinese dollars which we will immediately spend, while we promise to pay you back in US dollars, which at worst we won’t have to pay you, at best, we will have so much to pay you that that $103 is only worth $100 again anyways. if they’re lucky, that $103 that they havve might be able to buy $90 worth of goods.
Actually, I think the federal reserve has MUCH more control over the currency than zimbabway could have dreamed of.
They not only have the control over physical dollars, they have control over the non physical dollars, and they now are gaining greater control over the governments bonds, and they are also and here’s something that everyone also cignores, but they are a GLOBAL INTERNATIONAL company… The US is not the only currency they have control over, so they control international currency as well.
They have the power to make gold go to 50k if they want in a matter of maybe 4 years…. which is just enough time to have the us citizen revolting over a current administration, or at least on the verge of one right before a new president is appointed.
Sure, it’s possble that the gold bugs are completely wrong.. All of this money might be absolutely peanuts compared to the collapse of the credit and the deflationary environment. The trillions of dollars being pumped in, might only be enough to counteract the trillions being pumped out as everyone and every business goes bankrupt or borrows to stay afloat and is replaced by someone else who borrows to get it going again, so we might just continuously go back to where we started as the level of debt grows and grows. And it could potentially collapse and all the money pumped in doesn’t matter because the banks won’t lend because no one will borrow. In that case gold might get dramatically devalued…
but to say the fed doesn’t have much power is completely false and irresonssible.
Hey Weed –
How was the session with the hot asian fitness chick? Did you follow thru with the full-on facial hosedown?
Did ok kidstock, but not as much as it could have been. I got shaken out a couple of times and it really bit into my gains last year.
So far in 09 I’m doing great. I booked about 60k a couple of days ago. I am holding the biggest position in BOOM I’ve ever had. Purchased around 5.2. Bought more on the dip on Friday.
I’m looking for 9s, 12s and maybe…just maybe…
A lot of bullishness out there.
Who here has the balls to call the last lows on the 6th the bottom?
I know wrote:
“I predict short term inflation in this long term deflation spiral, but I think the actions of the fed are going to hit so hard and fast, that they’re actually going to hike interest rates. Immediately after, the current spending and stimulous being done will look like peanuts, and eventually Japan and China will look to sell treasuries, and THEN massive hyper inflation will take over until the US dollar is as worthless as the paper it’s printed on.
This isn’t going to be like the late 70s when gold took off, it’s going to be a much rockier ride. skyrocket up, plummet down, skyrocket way up.
Ultimately gold will be worth 10k an ounce, which will be just enough to pay for your taxes”
********************************************
So what the fuck is wrong with that? The trillions America owes in debt will vanish.
China will get fucked. The Dow Jones will go to 100,000. Your Social Security (indexed) will SOAR. You can pay off your mortgage balance in one week.
The only losers are the Pimcos, bondholders, the annuitants, and a few other DUMFUKS who thought they should LEND money.
I say RUN THEM PRINTING PRESSES! FASTER!
Fly what is your next move? What do you see in the future? You can’t be happy about missing this upside but I suspect you have a bigger more sinister plan. What would that be?
SWHC at 6.00 and RGR at 11.16 and OLN at 14.00
I think the fly is wearing a white suit to audition for “dancing with the stars” Disco is Back.
I smell irrational exuberance again. I can’t figure out how providing levered financing for some of these assets will provide a positive price discovery for others.
The prices paid for the toxic assets will be an articifical price, not a mkt clearing price. Extropolating this price to other assets would make no real sense – no one will buy them will out gubment help.
Buckeye:
Take the shitty assets out of BAC. What is the stock worth then?
it makes say $25 billion NPAT at 12 x earnings. That puts the the market value at 25 billion * 12 = market cap 300/45 = 6.6* $7= $46 per share.
that’s what people are thinking.
Jake tries, one more time, to get Fly interested in Earl.
_____________
It is being rumoured on the Street, that Fly has sold his trading business and is in the process of signing a book deal…
Anyone else hearing this???
J:
I made a mistake and listened to idiots on CNBC that suggested this would create a mkt in these assets. No private mkt will be created. We’re just taking out the bad assets via politically acceptable price/method so the banks can get on with life.
Thx
Can we short the market with extreme predigest yet?
I think you were looking for the word ‘prejudice’.
Dave,
Hilton Hotels just called, seems you left your sense of humor in their overnight safe…
________
Jason Lee (Earl) former pro skater. Very famous in his day.
This was the video that got me into skateboarding, must have watched this 50x a day when I was 10/11
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fQxm68t79Yw&fmt=18
Faz is heading to a 52 wk low(23.88). I’m going to buy some based on that alone. Am I wrong? It is down 27% now. WTF!!!
Low on FAZ is 25.49.
Five 90% days is telling ya something …. no?
It’s telling me I’m not the only one with a small vice on my nutes.
careful, careful 795
Danny — I had no idea that guy was a skateboarding dude before his comedic turn.
I’ve actually never seen his tv show,I was just looking for a way to fit “Earl” back into the convo.
Your brain plays tricks on you when you get older… I thought this old Primus tune was “My name is Earl” but it’s “mud.”
Odd, and ironic, no?
_____
^^^^^^^^^^
BTW — that’s Wood, on lead guitar and shovel.
_________
If the SP500 holds 810 after the close only a side dish would short the market. The bulls will be in charge. The high risk trade is to short at that point but I know you _PRO Traders know better when the 3x bear funds are SOOO
CHEAP !