The rolling disaster known as the Obama administration has fueled the fires of uncertainty, amidst a full economic collapse. You may live to tell your children about the days of The Great Economic Collapse of 2009, but the market won’t.
Everything you know about finance is useless. All of your stupid charts and asinine spreadsheets are better served lining the floors of your local garbage trucks, instead of being put to use in this market.
If you are serious about surviving this period of tumult, I strongly suggest that you heed the warnings and listen to the prodigious advice of “The Fly” aka Senor Tropicana–nd do so with great vigor.
So you know, I have open longs in TNA, WNR, CY, JRJC, GLW and ISRG. However, aside from 3% of my assets short, I have nearly 80% of my book in cash.
We are too low to short and too fucked to buy.
Trade accordingly.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
At least its a fun train wreck to watch. The Great Obama Fuckery. Our great grandfathers are shitting in their graves right now.
Tune in to the spaceman on AM 640 Toronto foolz
Corus Media gets you to it on the iphone apps
Crazy AH volume in the futures. Someone must be getting liquidated.
I guess that makes us Fucked, Net, Neutral or is it Net Neutral, Fucked?
“We are too low to short and too fucked to buy.” Well said.
“We are too low to short and too fucked to buy.”
Succinct. Accurate. Eloquent. The Fly scores another perfect 10.
AIG was a hedge fund??…thats it??…So sorry??…We’re screwed
wee wiw tak pwesidence ova yo cuntwee. ow space pwogwam fa supewio to yos. We mayk 2 space stasons wiw yoo onwy have 1, and ows ow betto cuz we can get bak an fowf to space on wockets. You aw wetiwing yos. ha ahaha.
(From the villian in “Big Trouble in Little China”)
Potty mouth….
Anyone know why GE significantly lower after hours?
Potty voter = someone who doesn’t research the money trail leading to a candidate and who votes based on emotional “feel-goodism.”
Potty voters are much more destructive to life on Earth than potty mouths. Please get your priorities straight.
TNA AH pretty wild
More insider buying by GE Co-Vice Chairmen … 75k shs total
Their (insider)buys have been sell signals … so far anyway.
Fly, don’t forget to watch our favorite channel tonight at 8:00 to see the CNBC “all stars”
they were on last night and will be on again tonight.
And they do believe truely they are “all stars”, and place themselves even above the Globetrotters.
Anyone have any information on the AHs sell-off? I’ve got the SPY down over a buck since the close, and the futures are still moving down.
Very good interview on CNBC (not being sarcastic –this dude knows what time it is).
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1050674027&play=1
Give the people what they want.
The American people are in for a very rude awakening.
Put action on GE continues to soar. Karl Denninger sounds an apocalyptic bell on his blog today, noting that the market is heavily betting on a GE bankruptcy by the 3rd week of June.
http://market-ticker.org/archives/846-Here-It-Comes-GE.html
And you boys still want to be long this market?
If GE goes under, this market will literally hit the fucking shitter like none of us could ever imagine. You think the market is oversold now. Think of the levels that will be tagged when GE and Chapter 11 are combined in the same CNBC headline. Add to that the redemptions coming in March from the idiotic funds who decided to “wait for a bounce” late last year rather than sell.
Shit will be going vertical to the downside a la Blockbuster Video (BBI).
Good luck.
goog and bidu getting rocked ah
Have a listen to this.
http://www.netcastdaily,com/broadcast/fsn2009-0228-2.asx
goog getting the H Hammer
gonna be a long night for ppt and ppt
Woody
“Anyone have any information on the AHs sell-off?”
Could be ABK,Moody’s warns it may downgrade Ambac to junk
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/moodys-warns-may-downgrade-ambac/story.aspx?guid=%7BAEF695B5-D161-4B0D-8908-EC40178D8033%7D&dist=msr_1
Down plenty AH
Brit, and others, thanks.
Smell a shit storm, brewing.
Just what we need, a Treasury secretary that goes to Congress and talks about the need for nationalized health care and universal preschool. WTF?
10 years of back-peddling is enough. This shit is getting totally out of hand. California could see 15-20% unemployment by 2010. If that’s the case we are totally fucked. We need a real leader to fight Washington.
Greendick and Bushie and their Wall Street buddies caused this crap.
Obama is just left with hind tit.
Maybe that’s why the Republicans ran Sarah Witch Doctor …. they didn’t want this shit
This market looks like it’s going to get sucked into a gravitational murder vortex in the next 3-6 months.
War is hell. Consider yourself under attack.
enough of all this stock talk, hockey trade deadline is tomorrow people!
My time is now.
i am still missing a black-friday-day … with -20%, a total washout .. trading gets halted, stock markets closed down … unless we see this scenario there can be nothing of a bottom …
Phil,
2 things:
1. Thanks for the good shorts lately, and also your point about the vix. Not something I normally pay much attention to, so I appreciate the perspective.
2. You are right. The guy on cnbc (you linked above) is preaching the word. Nice to see on The Fuckery Channel.
Optimatis,
I’m seriously perplexed by the complacency in the market right now given the seriousness of the shit going on (GE, clueless Geithner/Obama, huge earnings misses at the likes of FWLT, DELL, etc, DOW below 8,000…)
I also think we’re going to see trading curbs on the exchanges, GE in the $2’s and a public apology from Doug Kass (who yesterday went on the record on the Kudlow Show predicting that the “DOW would put in its lows for 2009 in the next 2 days”) about how much of a retarded asshat he is, before ANY bounce takes place.
Sad, but true.
Downsouth,
The VIX is a great indicator. It’s pretty much what allows me to keep holding on to my shorts. I try to forget the oversold conditions and focus on the lack of panic. It keeps me honest and focused on my gameplan.
[Update: Phil, ignore the below. I think I misinterpreted your comment above. The charts below aren’t inconsistent with your current view.]
Complacency? I think you need to reset your standard to something more realistic. Money is gushing out of the market and dying in the market.
This is already a monstrous, growly bear:
http://dshort.com/charts/bears/four-bears-large.gif
The pace and persistence of the decline has been fast and long by historical standards:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/spx200dma.jpg
A better alternative to trading from a canadian perspective:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsvqvKI_8HM&feature=related
Fly, do you still expect higher prices for the year? Besides your few long positions, what stocks or sectors are on your buy list going forward, if you expect a rally for the year. Thanks
One more: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B647BuVc_ek&feature=related
volunteers to chop off the babbling jackass gay ponytail… Pete Najarian(i gag on all my positions-my brother saves me) what a stupid fuck ass bogus jerkoff… How do they pick such freaking losers…its amazing..why the fuck am i watching it….fuck me
I’m pretty much with Phil on this. I’ve covered enough of my shorts so as not to be too nervous, but for the most part I’m still short with plenty of cash.
I’ve picked up a few calls to hedge, but in the big scheme of things they don’t amount to much. I still think we need to get a wtf bounce before we get the washout.
I’m thinking 13,000 down to 6,700 on the DOW within 8 months isn’t a very soft landing market correction. And why the hell is GE crawling up to the teet? It’s dry.
How ’bout “Options Action” & the idea to sell GE Jun 10 P? They were still pushing it last friday?
Cash-N-Guns:
Try the two links above. It’s actionable intel…
Government prepping up for civil unrest.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xeEBtFKAe_U
I will wager with anyone here that GE does not go chapter 11 or require any goverment help within the next 12 months.
100k minimum wager.
Either Fly or TC hold the funds, for which they will get paid 10%.
ottnott,
That’s an EXCELLENT side by side comparison of the current market vs. previous bears. It looks like we’re behaving in lockstop with the 1930s Depression thus far. We’re down by nearly the same amount as we were down in the Depression in the 13th month off the high.
If we continue to perform as such, watch the DOW meander down to 1,500 before it’s all over. Pretty crazy shit.
Why in the fuck is everyone scared to call this a depression. The definition of the two speak for themselves.
The United States-based National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines economic recession as: “a significant decline in [the] economic activity spread across the country, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP growth, real personal income, employment (non-farm payrolls), industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”[5] The NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee is generally seen as the authority for dating US recessions. Academic economists, policy makers, and businesses all usually refer to recessions as determined by the NBER.
This is what we are in….
Considered a rare but extreme form of recession, a depression is characterized by abnormal increases in unemployment, restriction of credit, shrinking output and investment, numerous bankruptcies, reduced amounts of trade and commerce, as well as highly volatile relative currency value fluctuations, mostly devaluations. Price deflation or hyperinflation are also common elements of a depression.
DRUNK&STONED,
How can you confidently make any positive assertions about the financial integrity or solvency of any corporate balance sheet given the unbelievable events we just witnessed in the last 12 months?
Have you not learned anything?
To cite one example…
Just the other day, AIG was a $70 stock. Then, it dropped to $40. Value investors screamed BUY on CNBC! An opportunity of a life time, they squealed! Then, AIG saw $20. Mom and pops bought with both hands at the behest of their “wealth manager” (gasp!). The stock slipped to $10. The market held its breath.
From one day to the next, AIG dropped to single digits. Then, came government help. AIG morphed into a penny stock. A few more bailouts ensued. And, finally, management admitted that the company was run as an insurance company selling coverge with hardly any collateral while bankrolling an uber-leveraged internal AIG casino/hedge fund caught on the wrong side of the market.
You still want to place bets on GE after all this?
My advice. If you really have that kind of money to spare, don’t waste time making wagers with Fly or any of us on IBC. Put your money where your mouth is.
Buy $100k worth of June 09 $10 GE calls.
And… GOOD LUCK WITH THAT!
DRUNK & STONED- Were you my roommate by any chance at UF in the early ’70s?
He was a big fan of ‘shrooms and now is a brain surgeon in Miami.
Current Headline on Yahoo Finance:
Obama suggests buying stocks, defends econ plan
To which I respond:
I would be glad to buy stocks if he would like to guarantee my investment in stocks as he has done for the insolvent banking industry.
If, on the other hand he chooses not to back my investments, I will gladly short the market with highly probable double digit returns on investment.
Fly – HAVE YOU SEEN THE PRICE OF RIB EYES LATELY?
This just in: Obama is an asshat.
Today the SPX moved right down to the 696 pivot and held support. The rally to 710 wasn’t much, but Tech displayed some resilience and continues to cushion this general market decline. When the SPX rallies back above the 734 pivot there’s a good chance that the downtrend should be over.
Comment: The writer means that leg A of an ABC bear market may be completed and the up leg (B) could be under way. Wait for confirmation or feel the pain of your longs getting homo-hammered down to SPX 640.
Elliot Eight,
I believe Prechter has covered his shorts, no? Feels there is not much downside left, no?
Did someone mention homo-hammer?
Phil, Nice post from msnbc.
Simple logic for the battle field.
I turned off my computer analysis a month ago.
For those predicting the market, the old grumpy man living in Florida doing anything he can to get his money out of mutual funds and hedge funds does not give a shit about charts, market models or stock screeners.
.
“For those predicting the market, the old grumpy man living in Florida doing anything he can to get his money out of mutual funds and hedge funds does not give a shit about charts, market models or stock screeners.”
LMFAO…exactly!
“Fly – HAVE YOU SEEN THE PRICE OF RIB EYES LATELY?”
Ruth Chris (RUTH) trading at 88 cents, Ribeyes will not exist in the future
Morpheus: This is your last chance. After this, there is no turning back. You take the blue pill – the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill – you stay in Wonderland and I show you how deep the rabbit-hole goes.
What is the Matrix?
Control.
Phil_from_Brazil Says:
Government prepping up for civil unrest.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xeEBtFKAe_U
——————————————-
The civil unrest they are preparing for is not from the economic crisis. It is for something else..something unspeakable in my mind.
But hey WTF we can all profit from the market crash as our city’s burn and blame it on Iran..OH OH.. sounds like the Pentagon basement again.
GonzoTrader,
Not sure I follow you on “something unspeakable”. Please elaborate.
As far as Prechter and the EW pattern, his recommendation to cover shorts was primarily directed at investors, not traders. The EW pattern from the top in 2007 is close to being a textbook example. To complete that pattern, we don’t have many subdivisions left to go, if any, and we should end with pretty bad news, which we are now facing.
So for someone holding a short since 2007, take your profits. More nimble types can take their chances.
Ah, I see you took the red pill.
Let’s talk about the rabbit hole then, shall we.
Consider the US financial system as World Trade Center Building X.
What is happening now is the controlled demolition of World Trade Center X. All evidence will be destroyed in it’s collapse, but the fallout will choke you and blind you.
Ozark,
Seems strange to me that he would be advocating closing shorts now, even if it’s because he’s not interested in nailing an exact bottom. He has been harping on a deflationary depression for some time. General deflation has not occured. Witness gold. It too should fall in a truly deflationary environment, no? He must have amended his outlook, no?
Phil
He’s talking about a nuke hit on the US by Iran.
Dick “legohead” Bove would be a big buyer of Banks. I have some UYG for ya
My Poker invite for this week:
We are on for Sat. at 7 at my house. 6 people for sure, 2 results pending. Buy in will be $18.50. $10 for poker, $4 tax, $2 to bailout my daughters 529 plan, $1.75 towards my 2nd house mortgage ( 12 bedrooms 6 baths on Reeds Lake with no money down), and $0.75 for various earmarks ( Wife needs new yoga mat, etc.,etc., etc.). I will send out 565 page detailed report Sat. at 6 pm. Tries
J,
Thnx.
Junk,
In Prechter’s interpretation, this is just the end of the first wave down, of the C wave that started in 2007 (wave A started in 2000). So the worst is still to come, with an ultimate bottom on the indexes at levels not seen since perhaps the 1970’s.
Seeing as how wave 2 could carry us back to 10000 or above on the DJIA before resuming it’s decline, it make since to cover here in big picture EW terms.
Phil
Only a retard would compare AIG with GE. AIG, at one time was and probably still is, the world’s largest writer of CDS. cREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS. Unlike banks and IB, GE’s esposure to derivatives is almost nill. The main risk exposure that they have is to commercial R/E and UK mtg’s. Even the so called exposure they have to Eastern Europe is minimal. Although GE appears to play in the same ballpark as banks and IB’S and some other ins. companies, they do not.
The wager was never intended for the Fly. He was to hold the funds. He is too smart to make that kind of wager. As a matter of fact, the wager was not directed at anyone in particular.
I never buy options outright, unless they are part of a hedge.
Phil, I have to be honest with you. I detest people like you for two reasons. 1) You come through as an arrogant, know it all little fuck. 2) You come to this country, work here, take advantage of its opportunities and then proceed to bad mouth the country every chance you get. You are a POS.
—————————————————–
TC.
LOL.
Phil,
I don’t think he’s talking about Iran.
Flux,
The scorched earth policy of a totalitarian regime is just a matter of course.
Maybe I should have taken the blue pill.
The HQ for Ruths Chris is about 5 minutes from my house (they moved from NO after Katrina).
They have been advertising on the radio here for a $39.00 three course meal. Things must be bad at Ruths.
But for my $$ I will clip a 10% off coupon for Golden Corral and pig out on USDA rejected beef,bacon wrapped pork chops, and marshmallow encrusted sweet potato pie.
Then like all old people I will steal all of their Splenda for my own use at home.
I found a comment on another blog that GE CDS spreads blew out to approx 1200 today, and that you had to pay points up front to buy protection.
Can anyone confirm?
Holy guacamole!
Drunk&Stoned,
You come on this board grandstanding about $100k bet “MINIMUMS” on GE and I’m the arrogant prick? Take a look at yourself, asshole.
Furthermore, I highly doubt you even have that kind of money to throw on a casual bet. Second, assuming you did (which you don’t), the fact you need to tell us in condescending fashion, instead of just quietly buying GE calls or stock in the open market just tells us you’re nothing but a windbag, who TALKS a big game — but lacks the balls to make shit happen.
As for “bad-mouthing the country every chance that I get”, my post had absolutely nothing to do with my opinion of America. I was referring specifically to your pathetic attempt to draw attention to yourself by challenging the board to a big money bet on GE.
It’s obvious you have nothing better to do, except maybe DRINK AND DO DRUGS (per your idiotic name).
You, Sir, are a loser.
omfgitsjd:
Who’s gonna do that? You need a military to be an effective totalitarian.
Last I checked, most servicemembers don’t want to even stand in a room with the bum. Maybe the inner-city “youth corps” is going to do it? Yeah, sure, we’ll see how far that goes (check out the ammo counter at your local Wal-Mart for some insight into what the rest of the country is busy doing right now).
As an aside, you see how Putin and Medvedev bitch-slapped ubunga today? Now I know how the Soviets felt when they had Andropov running the show!
Junk:
Prechter confirms what most EW chartists have been waiting for, that being the completion of the “Primary” (A) leg down which is comprised of three “Major” waves (a-b-c). Most agree that we are currently nearing the completion of Major wave “c” of Primary Wave A. Primary Wave B follows and has traditionally recaptured 50% of the entire decline. Hence when the downtrend reverses there could be fireworks on the upside and while one will have plenty of time to go long you don’t want to be caught short when the bronco busts loose so keep your stops on.
Anonymous: Forget RUTH, MRT has a better smell to it!
Flux,
I’ll check into it immediately. In the meantime, I’ll stop short of shining the light down the rabbit hole.