Don’t try to paint this fucking pig; we’re about to crash through the floorboards. The Government just threw away $150 billion in AIG and are on the verge of making themselves look totally inept, as opposed to ambiguously gay.
I want to short oil stocks, via DUG/ERY, until XOM prints $55. You know I hate Commercial Re; however, I want better prices, before initiating shorts. One name worth shooting at right now is STC—big stupid title insurance company.
On the long side, I like guns—lots of them. I’ve been buying SWHC and RGR, figuring if we head towards civil unrest, loads of egregious Southern gentlemen, like Woodshedder, will head over to their local gun stores.
The country is hemlocked in a way that cannot be reversed. Years of reckless spending and stupid Congressmen have finally fucked the world for good.
America, it is time to pay that fucking piper, else get “KARABAELL’D” to death, amidst fascinatingly obvious capital losses.
NOTE: Those of you who signed up for The PPT, tonight I will post my top 10 positions, with a few other thoughts on commercial Re.
NOTE II: As predicted, the scamsters at MOS, POT and AGU got lumped today. That’s all.
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I’ve been picking up birdshot, just in case my neighbors, who I care about, come after my stash of food. I’ve got buckshot for everyone else.
you can add me to this, fly:
figuring if we head towards civil unrest, loads of egregious Southern gentlemen, like Woodshedder, will head over to their local gun stores.
I went 100% cash three days ago. What is the Fly’s advice for someone on the sidelines? I see no reason we don’t trail much lower, but like you said it is really hard to get short here. Advice, fly?
I’m going to see if DDog will let me hang with him on the compound. What the fuck do I know about guns.
Fly I can believe you know how to make a Killer Sub Sandwich…but talkin guns.. no way. You going to start using the “K” letter in all your posts until SWHC prints 4
Small Fry:
That’s easy. With some of that extra cash, buy a “Distinguished Gentleman” sub to The PPT.
Good Day.
Use .22 long rifle “Shotshell” there Woddshedder on the neighbors…..that stuff will really sting, won’t kill, use 12ga slugs on everyone else…..
MRKC
You do not know “The Fly” very well. I am a HUGE fan of weapons.
Very exciting finish although I stopped my daytrading early to get the turnip greens out of my garden which I will cook for dinner Southern style (salt, pepper, bacon, and a shot of Tabasco).
TraderCaddy, bacon is too lean….use fatback……
Nice sales pitch – I am actually going to join.
But seriously, will you opine on the 100% cash player’s preferred next move?
Am I the only one who thinks this sell off is completely overblown, and that we are due for the mother of all snapbacks?
Awesome
Shit I thought you collected Spoons
Fly,
Just signed up for 1 year on PPT. Here’s my question… I am pretty much a novice. I need to follow you guys in. I also have a pretty busy job. So, “following” is going to be key (I am constantly online via smartphone or PC).
Do you envision PPT helping the loyal (but, idiot) troops like me? 🙂
Thanks for your leadership, Sir Fly!
Why doesn’t the press cover wasted taxpayer money on AIG?
Small Fry, stay in cash. Do not get an itchy trigger finger here.
PS – SWHC is a fucking dog. Horrible new products that are very overpriced and will be overlooked when everyone runs to the gun store. They’ll be buying the much cheaper Rugers and especially anything by Taurus (Forja Taurus) because those run about 40-70% cheaper than their Smith counterparts.
I love Smith & Wesson and collect their revolvers. Even at $3 I would rather short this stock than own it – that company is a fucking DOG.
@Moob: we are definitely due for one helluva snapback – big question is what level it’s off of
Cigar
Get on my back. You’ll be ok.
well not literally on my back. you know what I mean.
TheArtist- I actually use pretty fatty bacon and use the drippings, then crumple the bacon into the fry pan. I don’t cook it too often (maybe twice a year when the garden produces) but fatback would probably work better.
New Yorkers probably have to go to a place like Sylvias (my be too fancy) to eat the good stuff.
swhc is a sentiment play, not about the company.
lol.
Cigar… make sure you check out and participate in the forums. you’ll get timely advice and direction there.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SKS
I bought one of these a few weeks ago (Russian-made in 1953) for $260. I bought a case of 1120 rounds for $199.
Not that I expect to be defending spam and creamed corn for years near a remote spring to feed my family. Mostly just because they are cool, I was camping, and my friend was buying one.
Mars.
SWHC being touted like its Cisco circa 1999…Act accordingly
go2mars. The SKS sucks. Get an AK
I dont own any guns…but I have been loading up on shovels at the local home depot…when my neighbors come over to take my food, I will hit them on the head with a shovel when they are bending over in my frig. I will then bury the bodies in a deep ice vault I have built. Then I will be the hero offering free hamburger meat to the rest of the town.
long shovels. and funnels.
I know this: if we’d had Hillary Clinton this would not be happening. She’s hated because Bill and she are about the two smartest people in the country, the only two who would know how to fix it. That’s a fact…
The Bullish case Says ;
SWHC being touted like its Cisco circa 1999…Act accordingly
sco Jan. 27.89
Dec. 53.56
Guns Shovels and Funnels….surely this is a bottom? I wish
Sorry CSCO
mrkc: I thought the phrase was Guns, Germs, and Steel.
Load up on anthrax, not bullets.
Prof —
Get back on your rocker, you’re off it.
Anyone who puts their faith in politicians, socialist or otherwise, deserves what they receive.
_________
Thanks, Mr. Fly!
On board.
noobie,
SWHC is going to work as a trade, whether you like it or not. I dont see a comparison with CSCO 1999. CSCO had a massive speculative run for years and was overbought in 1999.
SWHC is coming off a very depressed stock price ahead of an earnings release that reflects a period (Q4 2008) that saw a surge in gun sales. Stocks like CAB have already reported and firearms sales are up — it’s a fact.
CAB managed to ignite higher despite producing things besides guns. SWHC is a pureplay on that pocket of strength (ie, gun sales). I like that.
The verdict? We go higher.
SWHC sucks. They will disappoint. Fuck consumer gun sales – the money is in contracts with police departments and the military. SWHC will disappoint (again).
Shootah,
If you’re so sure of SWHC disappointing, why don’t you get short? Words are cheap.
I put my money where my mouth is — you should too.
At least the YSL collection-art sale went well… maybe we’re investing in the wrong things?
ok, even I have now given up all hope and shall promptly go advertise for “mercenaries-wanted” on craigslist (you won’t find ME shooting a gun – those things are dangerous!) Would I still be a “bubba” if I used marauders-for-hire? Probably get a bunch of ex-wallstreeters responding to my ad; you know, the ones who used to be in structured finance and now they wander about with glazed eyes and stubbled chins, carrying “will kill for food” signs.
“We are all bubbas now”
———-
naah… I’m still confident in the future, I just can’t see how far away it is 😉 Where’s Mel Gibson when you need him – bullets flying everywhere, “Boys, we’re gonna win this fight!”
Jake,
That sounds like a noble idea. Now, can you lend me €39 million to bid on the Matisse. ;o)
Take note that WFC did not close negative today despite the triple D suffocation going on around here.
Is this the bottom?
All this talk of guns, thought i’d post something about cigarettes, another killer.
Today. 16:01pm
Citi bullish on Domestic Tobacco, adds MO to Top Picks Live, LO- raises target price on LO to $72 from $70
* MO is lifted to Top Picks Live! – Recognizing 2009 will be an exceptionally tough year, we have cut our EPS by 6-8%, to go 6% below guidance. Nonetheless we think this a an excellent time to buy the company that controls pricing and hence profitability in the industry. We love the balance of risk and reward that MO offers.
* LO is preferred name for risk averse investors – Newport’s brand equity means we are most confident about our estimates for LO.
* By contrast we see most risks at Reynolds, so despite its 8.9% dvd yield, we have raised the risk rating to High.
‘We believe the US tobacco names are all cheap (especially on the most tangible valuation of all – dividend yield1)’
Nice one, OJ.
RE. SWHC
They are ready to move up, but the $3.00 area has been difficult thus far. They have fucked up royally re Thompson Contender acq.. For the last 20 years the majority of handgun sales for proteaction or CQC situations have been Glock, Taurus, Sig, Beretta and numerous 1911 Colt Mfgr. But @ $3.00 you can’t get hurt..RGR more hunting oriented.CAB lions share of income is access. and clothing
Check this wacky shit out…
I just did the Fibonaccis for the Dow starting with the LOW of 1932 at $40.60 and going to the recent highs of 14,198.10, and guess where the 50% retrace is?
That’s right… 7078.75… or about 36 points south of today’s close.
Pretty fargin unbelievable… the move from 19 fucking 32….
CUT IN HALF!!
_____________
Buy and hold still works. You just have to live a little longer than average – say, 160 years – so the volatility doesn’t hurt you.
London, good stuff
Juice, made me laugh….Oy
Jake,
The last 14 months have been nothing short of unbelievable. What’s more amazing, however, is how this market is underperforming the DOW’s behavior from 1929 forward. This tells me that we could see a 90% peak to trough correction in the DOW before we have any sort of long-term reversal from bear to bull in the equity markets.
On Fast Money today, Carter Worth talked about proportionality of tops and bottoms. He noted that the SP-500 spent 5-6 months topping out in early 2000 and then spent the same 5-6 months topping out in late 2007. He then pointed to the 6 month bottoming process in 2003 and the current 4 month bottoming process we’re in now. Carter’s thesis was that even if we break down, we should meander for another 2 months before that happens.
I see Carter’s point, but I think the forces pressuring the stock market are much greater now. Moreover, if this turns out to be a continuation move to the downside, then, wouldn’t the bottoming process last less time (precisely because there are less buyers?). In the 2000 to 2003 bear, we had one sector (tech) in a bear market. Now, we’ve got every sector crashing down in a broad-based meltdown.
Technically, I see additional flaws in Carter’s analysis. This is also, by the way, why I disagreed with Fly’s thesis that the market could not make new lows in February because “February is a non-seasonal month for bearishness”. The key to my analysis? General Electric. GE is a proxy of the US economy. When I saw GE punching through 52-wk lows like butter in late January, I knew the broader market was not far behind. I got 90%+ short and remain so.
The other interesting thing about GE is that it violated Carter Worth’s theory of proportionality. Punch up a monthly chart of GE. GE, akin to the SP-500, spent 6 months going sideways in late 2002-early 2003. In September 2008, GE spent about 2 weeks in that $22 area where it bottomed in late 2002, then plunged lower. There was hardly any “respect” for that prior multiyear low. Now, it’s an $8 stock. The move was fast, and it was furious.
To the bottompickers, let me be blunt: there is absolutely no reason, technically, or fundamentally, for this market to stage a relief rally lasting more than 2-3 days in light of the action in GE.
The measured move lower from this triangle break on the DOW spells 6,000. We aren’t even close to that level yet. If any of you want to pick bottoms, be my guest, but keep those stops tight, because the bears have a tradeable void to ride and it’s over 1,000 points wide. The VIX also offers plenty of room for the bears, at a modest 53. When the VIX taps 75 and the DOW punches 6,000, then, a tradeable bottom becomes a better play. But, right now, unless you’re in a special situation stock showing enormous relative strength ahead of a known catalyst (ie, SWHC ahead of March 2 earnings), odds favor the bears.
Phil,
Your theory is flawed; GE generates (or used to generate) 75% of it’s income through it financial arm. It is being treated as a financial now more so than an industrial…hence it makes for a poor proxy to the US economy. You wanna treat GE as a proxy??? As they say in China…rotsa ruck.
DD
JakeGint;
The Fib retrace for the Dow is: 38.20% 8990 50% 7382,49
since we passed that shit. The next is 61.80% 5774.01. Not very good. DTO P+F chart is Bearish with a PO of 200. $wtic P+F chart still has a PO of $57 a barrel of oil. Who knows Cramer might luck out?
DD,
Wrong. GE is still a major Dow component, weighing in at $93B market cap.
You also missed my point about proportionality. You see, technically, GE should’ve traded for 6 months in the $20-22 area before breaking down. It did no such thing. This argument is purely technical and undermines the notion that the indices will linger sideways here just because last time around they did. With so much fundamental bad news hitting the wires (national debt and deficits out of control, plummeting tax receipts, state governments on the brink of default, corporate earnings estimates still too high for 2009, etc), the SP-500, like GE, has no reason to go higher.
Moreover, GE proved that if bad news is accute enough, time proportionality can be disprespected. I see no reason why the indices shouldn’t behave in similar fashion. Moreover, the VIX continues to be way off its highs, meaning there is still a lot of complacent money that has not yet panicked out of the market. That means the market will likely continue to push lower despite looking very oversold already.
GE credit default swaps at 630bps.
Blowup,
Carter is a smart guy, but he’s been making a series of mistakes lately. About a month ago, he said the indices would be going sideways for the next 6 months — we’ve blown through 11 year lows.
He also told folks he was advising Oppenheimer clients to buy Campbell’s (CPB) at $34, when the company announced that it was writing off a few hundred million dollars in shaky assets. From late November 2008 to now, the SP-500 is off about 1%, Campbell’s continues to plummet, now 20% lower from when Carter gave it the thumbs up.
It’s not to say that Carter doesnt make good calls, like his bearish bet on XOM a month ago, which I also happened to be in, along with Fly and every other trader with a brain…
But, I’d rather do my own homework.
This site is useless waste of broadband. No good advice, bunch of addicted losers, maestro has to hedge every guess, knows trading but he got no instinct and market timing stinko.
Bunch o bums huddled around a flaming barrel
Go fuck a stuffed animal
Phil_from_Brazil;
Carter is a pumper. I don’t watch that shit. I am an MTA member. We don’t predict [we only state information.] The stock market is not an exact science. Ask the FLY. Thank you for your helpful thought.
get guns
Here is a video of the U Conn BB coach telling a leftist “reporter” what’s what.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xokthY5zuPU&eurl=http://financialrounds.blogspot.com/2009/02/uconn-basketball-coach-explains-basic.html&feature=player_embedded
TraderCaddy,
If Fly ever coached basketball, that’s pretty much how I’d envision the fucker.
All the wacky end of the world buffoonery around here tells me that a bottom is probably not too far away.
People always think the world is ending during a bottom.
-DT
Dinosaur Trader,
I’ve been an end-of-the-world buffoon since DOW 13,000. It’s been working out pretty good for my portfolio. Now go buy some GS and feel nice and bullish.
Phil, have you ever surfed that tidal wave up the mouth of the Amazon? Amazing wave, no?
Phil-from-Brazil…
By any chance, have you spent any time or lived in the Bay State of Massachusetts?
You clowns getting sucked into buying Smith and Wesson is pure comedy.
Anonymous,
It’s called a pororoca — the confluence of ocean water and river water. Never been there though. Nor do I know much about surfing. 😉
Bravo,
I lived in Boston for a couple couple of years (Boston College). Why do you ask?
Jeff,
I was “sucked in” at 2.41 back in January. I wish every “suck job” was this good. ;o)
It may be just a coincidence, but you may be someone my Brazilian friends here in Mass know…
Don’t mean to be stalkerish, but the world may be a smaller place after all…
Bravo,
Maybe. Is that where you live now?
I have guns, ammo, sharp knives and pitbulls mother fuckers. I hope the SHTF, there are a bunch of cunts who I need to face bash before the apocalypse comes.
I feel lucky to be alive in these times. It’s going to be great!
Mata Leaon,
That’s fucking hilarious. As for your nickname, did you mean, MATA LEÃO, Brazilian Portuguese for “rear-naked choke”?
Hey Phil – yea that was a typo – didn’t notice until you bought it to my attention. I’m a bjj player for many years now…So if I cant shoot,stab or have my dogs bite you I will triangle a bitch until the snot drips out of his nose 🙂
Yes Phil, this is where I live. Outside of Boston…
I did 2 years of Brazilian jiu-jitsu in Rio with Rodrigo Gracie, years ago. He’s one of Reysson’s sons and now fights Pride. The guy was a complete character.
Phil,
That’s great, really. I’ve been bearish on the market for a long time and still think we have pain to endure.
I nailed the bottom in November when I told my wife to take a few thousand out of the bank and stash it in our basement. My point is simply that bottoms are also psychological in nature… the market isn’t only about technicals and fundamentals. When seemingly sane people are buying guns and stocking food, that’s a sign not of the impeding apocalypse, but of impending capitulation.
When no one wants to buy stocks anymore, when everyone is sure that they will never bounce, they will bounce. I didn’t make that up, that’s just proven to be correct over and over again in the market.
-DT
So true DT.
I don’t quite get the guns thing though.
Phil: porra! you need the jitz my freng! I train under a Royler Gracie affiliate. Is there a Gracie that isn’t a character? Did you hear that Helio past?
Here’s question;
They do the stress test, come up with a few banks that need common equity, the feds convert down and the market thinks that could go a little way to stabilizing the system. What happens then?
J,
Fly and the gang are joking about the revolution — which may be true.
But the honest to God reason to be long gun stocks is a surge in firearms sales late last year after the Obama victory. Consumers sought to lock in firearm and ammo purchases ahead of any potential adverse changes to tax policy regarding firearms.
Gun sales have been on the decline for years, but the late 2008 surge in sales, courtesy of the incoming Obama administration, has created a tradeable rally in gun stocks.
Cabela (CAB), a sporting goods maker, which also happens to sell firearms, confirmed the bullish thesis for SWHC, when it reported surging firearms sales and beat numbers a few days ago (despite weakness in its sporting apparel sales).
SWHC is a pureplay gun stock. No bullshit sporting goods to weigh down on numbers. Given the spectacular post-earnings move in CAB (up 35%), a watered down gun play, the big boys have begun to run SWHC higher ahead of March 2 earnings.
That, J, is why you want to be long the big guns.
I’ve been long since 2.41 and plan on riding a big move higher. Civil unrest and surprise purchases from law enforcement could juice up SWHC earnings even more. But that’s really icing on the cake. The pre-Obama-administration bump in sales is all SWHC really needs to deliver a crazy Q4 2008 report.
That’s the story.
Yeah, it’s too bad that Helio passed. He was an iconic figure in the family and did a lot for the sport. He was skinny and frail but kicked lots of ass in his early days, challenging all sorts of big dudes to one-on-one clashes.