I shorted the euro, with leverage, at the end of the day, buying DRR. I think it’s fair to say the euro is trash and worthy of a pineapple coffin.
I really need to start being nicer to people. I am sure many of you gimps are secretly hating on me, wishing for “The Fly’s” demise. Unfortunately, for you, “The Fly” is demise proof.
In short, I should have went shopping or went back to sleep this morning, instead of watching this market pussyfoot around, all day long.
Just to recap: I reduced my longs and I still think oil stocks will get cut in half, YET AGAIN!!
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
the fly is god.
xom to 45?
XOM is toast!! … surprised that floating piece of shit is still in the 70s
Other than the gap-down at the open yesterday, the market hasnt budged in 2 full trading days. Look for a head fake w/ the real move right behind it.
Watch the petrol-based swinging blade of certain ball deliverance, Fly.
Just saying.
__________
Fly,
Will there be a bundled price for the PPT and Danny’s newsletter when you begin charging for it? It’s a very good/actionable newsletter.
Anton
As of now, no. We haven’t given it much thought.
Thanks FLy, you rock. And yes, I’ll be a paid PPT subscriber as soon as it comes out.
fly, now why would you need to start being nicer to people. honestly.
Fly,
What are your thoughts on SPY at this point? XOM and CVX are in 10 largest holdings + all the financial and comRE crap…
i own sdd. what do you think?
I think you are looking to “Throw it down, big man! Throw it DOWN!”
Recooped from Gio’s:
Why fug around?
Buy the trend, SLV & GLD and their progeny: SLW, PAAS, EGO, RGLD, GG and one I added today thanks to the PPT:
IAG.
_________
Also– “I own SDD” is non responsive, counselor. SPY is large cap, not small.
_________
DRR is working great! I’ve been holding that in a pairs trade with GLD and EGO for about 2 weeks now.
Die refiners, die! 😛
One more thing…
Price of Gold is less than $15 from the big $1k.
One grand, ten hunnit semolians.
Anyone think it’s going to seize up there?
_________
Dannyboy,
The pipes, the pipes are calling:
They say: Toot! Toootle! Tooty-toot-toooooooot!
(Translation: Whilst DRR and EGO/GLD are all great investments right now, they are not a hedged pair trade but a cumulative bet in one direction. )
_____________
Thanks. Bundling didn’t exactly endear the telcos to anybody.
But Danny puts market moves and the probability of moves in context, which might work well with the specific stock and sector information from the PPT.
You may sell more peanut butter and jelly by pricing them as a sandwich.
Wow, it worked. Now I want a sandwich.
JakeGint,
An excellent analysis you may want to read regarding the gold target.
http://ashraflaidi.com/articles/equity-gold-ratio-40-yr-cycle.asp
Anywho, golds steady price increases signal fiscal irresponsibility in the future.
refer to IMF paper “How to fight deflation: Committing to being Irresponsible” by Gauti B Eggertsson
JakeGint,
An excellent analysis you may want to read regarding the gold target.
http://ashraflaidi.com/articles/equity-gold-ratio-40-yr-cycle.asp
Anywho, golds steady price increases signal fiscal irresponsibility in the future.
refer to IMF paper “How to fight deflation: Committing to being Irresponsible” by Gauti B Eggertsson
A post so nice he made it twice.
Gold Stock Angst
Overnight markets were weaker, after Wall Street’s horrid performance yesterday. This time China joined the parade, as it dropped nearly 5%. Wall Street initially put on a brave face and tried to open higher, despite more negative news on the macro front in terms of housing starts and industrial production.
But that bravado did not last long. About an hour into the day, the averages were lower by about 0.5-0.75%, putting the Dow at a new low for the move. (Its brother, the Dow Transports, also made a new low, but it broke its November low a while ago.) We then spent the session flopping and chopping around unchanged, never getting too far in either direction, and we closed flat. Beneath the surface it was sort of a mixed bag, with a smattering of tech green but most everything else red. Gold stocks were especially weak, at least initially, but many of them turned positive late in the day.
Marc Faber on How We Got Here
Of course, one of the reasons for the strength in gold has been the action of various central banks around the world. Today’s Wall Street Journal carried an article titled “Synchronized Boom, Synchronized Bust,” in which my friend Marc Faber details just what the headline implies. None of this will be news to any reader of this column. But Faber’s article is a well-written, concise explanation of how the world arrived at its current predicament, which makes it a worthwhile read.
Here are a couple of important points that he makes, regarding the government’s meddling in the markets: “It is not that the free market failed. The mistake was constant interventions in the free market by the Fed and the U.S. Treasury that addressed symptoms and postponed problems instead of solving them. . . . Further interventions through ill-conceived bailouts and bulging fiscal deficits are bound to prolong the agony and lead to another slump — possibly an inflationary depression with dire social consequences.” Not exactly a feel-good piece, but understanding where you are is an essential component of figuring out where you’re headed.
Away from stocks, the dollar was stronger once again. Treasury futures were weaker. Oil was flattish. Precious metals were 2% higher.
Turning to gold stocks, as I noted, they were quite weak early in the day. I think a lot of that angst has to do with the fact that Agnico-Eagle, Goldcorp, Kinross Gold, Newmont, and Barrick Gold are slated to announce earnings this week. (It’s worth noting that the companies due to report have traded weaker than the ones which aren’t.)
Sighs of Relief Would Beat Gnashing of Teeth
As those folks who’ve been involved know, these companies have reported disappointing news quite regularly over the last couple years, causing their stocks to slide. But recently, the majority have already told us what their production and growth profiles look like, and many of them have also done stock deals (which would require disclosure of any large warts). So, I think the potential for any nasty surprises is on the low side. And we must remember, it’s not Q4 of ’08 we care about. It’s Q3/Q4 of ’09, etc. that concerns us.
Beginning with Agnico-Eagle (and Kinross) tonight, if guidance isn’t shockingly poor (which I don’t expect), the stage may be set for a serious move to the upside. That, as a collective sigh of relief is breathed by shareholders of the group. I could easily see how anyone thinking about buying the gold miners might be waiting to see what their numbers look like. All of which creates the potential — there are no guarantees — for a potent rally. Bottom line: By tomorrow there’s a reasonable chance that we’ll get some worthwhile clues and have a decent handle on how these stocks are liable to trade in the near term.
Positions in stocks mentioned: Long GG, AEM and NEM.
Jake:
I disagree. The main reason gold would fall is a huge spike in the dollar, or a decline in gold would lead to a spike in the dollar (chicken or the egg). In that case I lose on gold but DRR goes up. But if gold were to skyrocket conventional wisdom says the dollar should be down and my loses in DRR will be offset by gains in gold. In the meantime I’ll ride the trend in gold while the euro falls apart.
Copied from last thread:
Fly,
I honestly like mrkcbill.
For the last several weeks…we have exchanged fairly innocuous barbs in jest. There have been a lot of other “Jed” posters (check the IP addresses) that have piled on after the whistle so to speak. So it likely seems worse than it really is.
Jed
PS…Fly…whats with all the sensitivity today…are you also having hot flashes?
A “pineapple coffin” doesn’t sound so bad….or perhaps a coconut coffin would be better…
With hula girls dancing around it.
Yeah, that’s it.
Has anyone else looked into this?
Let Wall Street Pay for Wall Street’s Bailout Act of 2009 (Introduced in House)
HR 1068 IH
111th CONGRESS
1st Session
H. R. 1068
To amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to impose a tax on certain securities transactions to the extent required to recoup the net cost of the Troubled Asset Relief Program.
IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
February 13, 2009
Mr. DEFAZIO (for himself, Mr. WELCH, Ms. SUTTON, Mr. CAPUANO, Mr. WU, Mr. STARK, Ms. DELAURO, and Ms. EDWARDS of Maryland) introduced the following bill; which was referred to the Committee on Ways and Means
A BILL
To amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to impose a tax on certain securities transactions to the extent required to recoup the net cost of the Troubled Asset Relief Program.
DB — Problem is, gold has been in lockstep with the rising dollar and the Euro has been crashing against gold.
If you’re going to pair the trade for a hedge, you have to see what the two are doing against each other, not just against the dollar.
____________
russia is supposedly loading up on gold and wants 10% of world reserves.
Make Wall:
I think we should append a special tax on innumerate Democrat politicians and anyone who paid for them.
Oh that’s right, we’ve already got that tax a comin’.
Seriously, a math class would do Congress a lot of good. Can we work on that?
__________
I thought you put DDR at first, lmao
Jake:
I think they could only handle Algebra 2 or the like.
Something to read, no huge surprises, take it for what it’s worth:
Citigroups Technical Focus analysts on CRUDE today: ‘The weekly momentum indicator is turning down increasing the probability that prices will test and break their multi-week lows at $32.40. That would in our opinion activate targets in the mid-$20 range. A very important test looms for this market in the near-term.’
And on the $DOLLAR: ‘Our last chart today takes a look at monthly and weekly momentum studies on the dollar. It is
quite obvious that the longer-term perspectives imply continued strength. We think the weight of evidence supports that view barring any short-term surprises in the current week. Buy with a stop over the current week’s high. Risk 85 points.’
I think they could only handle Algebra 2 or the like.
You give too much credit.
_______
Pre-Algebra perhaps?
Jake,
Do u also factor in Beta in the comparison?
Jake,
For example, Stock A is priced at $10 per share and has a 2 BETA. You went long 100 shares of Stock A. Stock B is the inverse of A and is 100% inversely correlated with A and has a 1 BETA and is priced at $10. To be 50% hedged, with B you would purchase 100 shares.
Markets will rally through Friday to pay off the PPT on their call options on the basis of jamie diamond’s appraisal of the obama housing plan is great bullshit. He has to say what the government wants since he needed TARP $$$s. Everybody thinks he is the smartest guy in the room, however, he is not. Just another lying wall street scumball, however, the government needs a current “wall street hero” to keep the masses from revolting against the establishment. I sold most of my SRS bought at 59 at 80.70 today and will buy it back at 61 on Friday. I bought some more DZZ at 19.30 today with some of my SRS proceeds.
DD eats dicks.
GS partners getting margin calls from, er, GS. I’m sure the rest of the company is solid tho… :/
The last time MBI led the gainers it didn’t end too, um, well.
Imminent reversals in gold, dollar, oil, and stocks.
I sold all my NG at the close. Holding GOLD another day or two makes me nervous.
Cramer just gave gold the kiss of death by blessing it 🙁
If gold can shake off the Cramer curse, watch out above.
So there I was, knee deep in napalm.
At least the DOG brightened my day a little.
So how do I know whether I am involved in the right shoulder of a reverse head and shoulders that would occur after a significant down turn?
I vote for the Fly fighting Chris Brown in a one on one match in NYC- Brown likes to beat up girls and FLY likes to crush stocks- a perfect match-up. All we need is a sponsor…..
John Paulson was in SKF in the 4th Qtr – over 8% of SKF which would have been like $50 mill. Don’t know how long he was in it or if he is still in it. I am holding some FAZ from 48.
i looked at FAZ when it was trading just a hair under $40. i thought, ‘meh, i’ll wait until tomorrow.’
it was about 46 at the open the next day, and i never got in. 🙁
Still sitting on the SSO I bought yesterday morning. Playing odds on a bounce before the w/e and setting sell points above and below, just in case.
Holding GLD, SLV, GDX from a while back, tempted to set a chandelier stop.
Bought EWZ, ECH, and MOO yesterday; holding, will re-evaluate daily.
I second Aris’ experience with FAZ… crud
There is no confidence and more banding to continue for the foreseeable future. The only trend is down.
DD has it right. Let’s just get it over with already. If your bankrupt and you know it, clap your hands….
Not only do I not wish for your demise, I wish for your success. I am very very thankful
for how much you care about our country, for telling the truth (your ibank vision), and for the way you put your family as a priority. I think you will make plenty of money this year because you are very skilled, but that’s not the important thing. I don’t quite understand it yet, as I have only been following your site and your community for a few months, but I know you are creating something unique, good and that is needed. (I’ll confess the language is a challenge for me at times and the remarks that some make about eachother, but I’ve learned to tune it out and listen to what is really being said.) So hang in there.
I’m routing for you and I know most everyone on here that I read is too.
PS– and of course you get furious at what is going on — we all should be outraged. This isn’t what our grandfathers and greatgrandfathers died for in World War I and II. Shame on all of our business leaders and government leaders who denigrate what previous generations died for. Shame.
^^^
iii
Over 47.5 YRS ALERT. OVER 47.5 YRS ALERT.
CAP – Welcome! to the club 😉
Seriously, is there anyone who’s not a gold bull at the moment?
I wanna buy it but I reckon we have one of those $100 corrections where everyone gets rotor rooted.
Gold is one of those first in first out trades.
Then jump on the silver bull. Still room there.
Fly,
“I really need to start being nicer to people. I am sure many of you gimps are secretly hating on me, wishing for “The Fly’s” demise. Unfortunately, for you, “The Fly” is demise proof.”
Why the fuck would you want to do that for. You will lose half the attraction of Ibankcoin.
And why DRR? Euro is trash but the $ is way overbought right now.
I see a lot of people here trade out of boredom, just for the sake of trading, even when the odds are not that great.
Why load up on more gold here? If you own some, great. Put some tight stops under those positions and let it go. If it closes above 1030 for couple of days, you can add some more for a run to $1200. Gold is a funny market. It has a way of shedding $100 in a session or two. Look at HUI, it’s not really participating in the run.
In the opposite extreme I read of people shorting more here. Same applies. The majority of the run downside is almost over for this round. It will go lower but not in the straight line. There is a rally in the works here. I was waiting for a capitulation last few sessions but watching the tape today, real bounce came at 7500 several times. Some big money is determined not to let it get below that number, at least for now. We might still get that sharp selloff, but not as likely after reading the tape today.
Additionally, there’s a lot of talk of nationalization going on. A mention of it by the Geithner team would send the markets rallying 10-15%. This fear is a big reason why the markets are so weak. If this fear materializes, (which it will sooner or later) market goes higher. Not to mention that it’s good for the economy. We might have a prayer of resuming some lending.
In the nutshell, trend change is in the air, at least for a while. This might mean market, Oil, Euro rallies while gold and US$ goes down, despite longer term fundamentals.
GLTA
Its a free fire zone.
The game will be to blow out all the stops, drain premium, and generally fuck anybody left standing.
I’m with the Fly on this one – stay small.
wheres my money ho!
Silver is just as bulled up, Atlas. The gold silver cross hasn’t really moved that much from from i can see.
Joe
Nationalization would have a horrible impact. It would mean almost every large bank would make its way down to 5 bucks on fears.
What they need to do is lie. Yes lie. Tell the market that the stress test showed the banking system is ok, buy some bad assets and then pray that reflation sets in later this year or next.
you’re a pretty good contrarian indicator. though, not of the ilk of a certain james cramer, but close. i’ll go long oil here. have a great evening.
Juice – I was referring to the poster above me. I’m 2 decades below the age max.
47.5 + crowd – Juice, TC, AlphaDawg, Mrkcbill, JakeGint, Anton,
On to business. The market is hanging precariously to the Nov. lows. It will be broken tomorrow. Monday at latest.
DEVILDOG sold out of his SRS position today because he thinks he can rebuy it at $61. Since DD is a contrarian indicator, the market pushes lower tomorrow.
The Dollar is breaking out. This sets us for a big leg down. More talk of bank nationalization. WFC and JPM are the easiest shorts here. WFC will see $5 this year. I would think JPM will too. GE is another $5 stock. FAS will head down to $3 before long.
My new trade. Sell $5 call options on FAS for March in size. Then repeat for April and every other month. Its a no brainer trade. I sold $15 @ $1+ , $12.5 @$1.80+ , and $10 @ $2.5+ calls for FAS this month. Easiest money I have ever made. For fun, buy some FAZ $200 calls for 6 months out. When the market is overextended to the downside, I will sell naked calls on FAZ and SKF. Not anytime soon though, I expect FAZ to trade over $100 and SKF over $200 short term like the next week or so.
Cap
Shorting options is a mugs game.Large/unlimited risk for limited reward.
Actually, SRS may fall to 54.
Dog
How’s your gold position “working out for you?”
Isn’t that the question you always ask people?
Sucks their own cock crowd – “CAP”
@ j
I’m sure there’s somebody that’s not a gold bull here. Every buyer has a seller at the other end – don’t forget that! No such thing as EVERYBODY in a trade, because they have to have a counterparty! LOL
But I’m looking at the chart and it’s stretched. Makes me want to put in that chandelier really bad, but the wife is making me wait on that, take another look this weekend.
He hates doing that, Anton. Don’t remind him.
psuedonym
If there’s three sellers to one buyer, the price goes down. Reverse and the price goes up.
It’s odd, don’t you think?
So Greenspan publicly endorses nationalizing the big banks and within a day Bernanke is asked if he agrees. Bernanke, in dismissing the idea says (paraphrasing) ‘we’d rather get banks back in private hands as soon as possible…I mean, we’d rather see them stay in private hands.’
Was Greenspan’s statement a trial balloon, floated to gauge people’s and the market’s reaction?
More importantly, was Bernanke’s statement a Freudian slip or a tacit admission that they are already effectively nationalized?
Is nationalization already in the works? They surely must have a team working on a contingency plan, but are they already planning to do it?
On the gold topic, I loaded up on some of the physical stuff back in November. The appreciation since then has been nice but it’s incidental. I bought it as a hedge against a reorganization of the global currency regime. If multiple currencies get way out of whack, with the dollar as the main catalyst or not, there is a high likelihood that an effort might be made to hit a big reset button. Whatever form the subsequent regime might take, gold has the best chance of carrying its value from one regime to the next, provided Obama doesn’t make gold ownership illegal for private citizens the way FDR did.
So I don’t care if it drops from here. I’m not holding it to generate returns.
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/2009-02-16.php
Colin Twigg’s ideas on gold, and other markets.
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/2009-02-16.php
Colin Twigg’s ideas on gold and other markets.
J,
“Nationalization would have a horrible impact. It would mean almost every large bank would make its way down to 5 bucks on fears.”
All these banks witht the exception of GS and JPM will make it to $5. WFC seems the most vulnerable and I really like that bank but buying Vachovia was really stupid. But, all of them trading to your range doesn’t amount ot more than coupla hundred DOW points.
“What they need to do is lie. Yes lie. Tell the market that the stress test showed the banking system is ok, buy some bad assets and then pray that reflation sets in later this year or next.”
Lie? you mean continue to lie?
That is the best way to eliminate any shred of credibility left in these “free markets”. Investors are smarter than that these days. Investor confidence needs to be restored before there can be any kind of recovery. Continuing the lie isn’t the best strategy here.
These banks will need to go and they will be gone and it will be good for the market! I think only C and BAC are at that point. The rest of them might be salvagable…time will tell.
http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/GoldBullMarketCorrectionFeb17.php
Chris Vermeulen’s ideas – gold stretched.
Gold/$USD = Falling Global Currencies = FEAR
Gold has decoupled from the dollar and attached itself to global fear of devaluation for now …
China buying an interest in FSUMF (Hello j!)…
AAUK sells another 3% of AU shares taking advantage of the current market in gold …. a top???
j – “If there’s three sellers to one buyer, the price goes down. Reverse and the price goes up.”
You are so TOTALLY confused. What matters is the relative desperation of the buyers and sellers, not their number.
The total absolute number of buyers or sellers are irrelevant.
Every single share or contract has ONE buyer and ONE seller, although the total absolute count may differ.
Let’s say one institutional buyer wants 5 million shares of a stock, like 4.9% of the float, and accumulates them from 500 sellers, and does it in a DAY. Think he moves the fucking market UP, even though he’s outnumbered?
Get the points?
(1) Number of sellers and buyers is irrelevant.
(2) Every transaction has a counterparty. Every share sold has a buyer and a seller.
(3) Desperation of the buyers and sellers (bid and ask) is what matters, not the total absolute number of people in the trade. It’s an emotional thing. “Animal spirits.”
Disengaging …