Fucking NYC weather is sadistic. My bones are still rattling from the cold weather. I need to get the hell out of New York, in exchange for some island—where I can throw sand at people and drink healthy servings of bourbon, while watching the sun set.
In other news, it appears I am going to get sucked back into the market, 100%. Today’s economic news (jobless claims, housing starts) is being viewed as bad. As a result, stocks are getting their faces punched in.
Much to my chagrin, I find myself saddled with a bunch of longs. To offset any further deterioration, I may be forced to spend the rest of my cash on shorts, namely DUG and FAZ.
Sure, I could fuck around with individual names. However, I took it upon myself to buy FAS, UYM, amongst others. Therefore, if I want to stop the bleeding, I am forced to take on some 200-300% downside etf’s, or just sell out of my longs.
I could sell the longs and just call it a day. But, I find it far more interesting to navigate the market with both long and shorts running simultaneously.
At the end of the day, this market is fit for the criminally insane. The daily fluctuations are enough to drive any man to a remote island in the Caribbean— for an extended vacation.
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Senor Tropicana rides again.
do you bitch and cry every day about every thing the market is gonna gring its way back to 900 the sell it damn
speak english
TC
go fuck a bag of golf balls you prick.
imnsho, today is a day to buy/cover, for tomorrows bear-on-a-spit roastage.
I think he just called you a gringo, Senor Tropicana.
__________
You see that last article posted by “anonymous” in the post prior?
Excerpt:
The median for existing single-family homes in the nine-county region sold in December was $330,000, down 46.8 percent from a year ago, according to research firm MDA DataQuick of San Diego. For all homes, including condos and new homes, the median was also $330,000, down 46.8 percent. That was the lowest median since March 2000 and about half of the $665,000 peak reached in June and July 2007.
all the FAS buyers that chased upside yesterday are f*cked… untill next time Jimmie and Ken buy their own stocks
Bennet Sedacca
07:40:00 AM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Another day…
Another 16 months of return wiped away.
With the long bond down another cool 4 1/2 points, all the way ‘up’ to 3.16%, buyers at the highs are now down a not-so-cool 17 points or nearly 7 years of yield from 2.5%. Ouch.
And the train, folks, in my opinion, is just leaving the station. Get on the Bear Train to higher yields.
The big question in my mind is what will this do to the mortgage backed market (current coupons bid through the roof by the Fed–like we all can’t em doing it…).
My firm was a huge seller of lower coupons a few weeks back and are sitting comfortably in 6/1-8% coupons
But this could be the undoing of any hoped for housing recovery.
Folks, this is the single most important point, in my view, NOT being talked about at present.
FAS will print 20 in short order. This selloff is a gift from Costanza … take it, imnsho
MSFT!
Whoopsie.
I’m gonna try short tech today. REW looks poised.
Is it just me or is the lack of follow through in Europe disturbing. Asia was unimpressive too. Yesterday may have just been the Obama rally and now we plunge to new lows.
everyone that bought FAS following the fly yesterday is f*cked, sell it and buy FAZ cause the fly is buying it. Then wait until tomorrow and check back with this blog ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha
DRYS just fell off a cliff face……….more like eaten by a wolf a shit over the side……..
Neil
It’s good commentary. But have you noticed something. I can’t ever recall the dude running a position.
“”At the end of the day, this market is fit for the criminally insane. The daily fluctuations are enough to drive any man to a remote island in the Caribbean— for an extended vacation. FLY””
****************
Lady Guenevere Says:
Tomorrow- a great awakener, expect disruption, and radical discontinuity.
January 21st, 2009 at 7:06 pm
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ahhh-yea—there was no way I was going to buy longs yesterday. I am shorting everything and only riding ETFs up and down daily till this mess of a market figures itself out.
Re: discontinuity: a break from continuity or the current path/movement
Cap
Everyone in Asia basically sits around to see what the US does. They’re all deer in headlights.
Fools … don’t get all beared up here … the train will leave bear station with a gap up tomorrow morning & run to the close… don’t go home (too) short tonight
to Lady G:
I am shorting everything and only riding ETFs up and down daily till this mess of a market figures itself out.
————————–
o yeah, cause you have magic ball that tells you when to buy and sell so that you can “riding ETFs up and down daily” all between playing tennis and looking over your lady magazines
wow. more world class market shenanigans this am.
Jim “baggins” Goldman is a small munchkin.
Juice:
Says who?
Anyone surprised with Microtheft’s earnings? Vista is a shit system that people absolutely despise pushing people like me even to apple for the fist time.
No surprise. Microtheft should give everyone their money back.
Do you now who packed your parachute?
DRYS, POT, MSFT all shower shitters. A blind man can see we’re going to eventually test the Nov. lows.
Juice can take his retarded daily predictions and fuck a rolling donut.
MSFT to layoff 5000, Intel announced layoffs yesterday. Google said they were laying off 100 recruiters. Of course they revised last weeks jobless claims upward. I live in MSFT land and it has been a stronger job market here than most of the country, but now that MSFT is laying off there will be more to follow around here for sure. This will probably continue. 10% unemployment is coming soon.
Excuse me but I run my own business in transportation besides day trading that employs people other than me. I buy 18 wheelers…and put men to work.
Also I predicted this type of market back in my ‘ Predictions’ for 2009 that I posted at the first of the year, I also post from time to time what I think the market is going to do the next day…but no one cares to take what I say with any validity. I have posted UP Days the day before when DD was posting doom and gloom, I posted on Twitter a few days in a row what the ‘ next day would bring’ but I got tired of that stupid thing and deleted it. I do from time to time post what I think will happen on here…and I have been right every time. But no one pays any attention anyway. I may not post ‘ stock pics’ but I do have the ability to know what kind of mood is out there.
I am very proud of the fact that I have time to play tennis, run several businesses at the same time enjoy my life…
.
To be fair, Juice was calling for the market to trade lower. I don’t know what changed his mind.
You got overconfident.
Lady G – PLEEEASE. This trading endeavor is difficult enough in “normal” times, and so much more difficult in these bipolar-schizophrenic times. Please post some enlightenment in the PG so we can learn something. FWIW, what if we open lower then climb during the day, and Mr. Fly unwinds his hedges? What would you say about yesterday’s action? Thanks.
Ok, let’s listen to you lady G what are you predicting. I’ll run a score.
out of my SRS at 63, will get back on the pullback
Don’t make excuses. Cut your losses. Start fresh.
FYI
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/New-jobless-claims-rise-more-apf-14125192.html
what are you smoking?
Lady G, what’s the temp. in Texas right now? It’s colder than Leona Helmsleys left titty here today…..
4 words. INSANE IN THE MEMBRANE
Lady G – screws truck drivers for a living.
Truck drivers have large shifters
TLT broke down through the 50 day ma!
Fly always figures things out…hes a master at mixing ingredients and making them work.
I was just trying to say that a lot of posters were posting a bullish run- and getting back into longs. There is a lot of discontinuity, or what you guys call whipsaw. The only safe thing I can find are just riding the ‘ mood’ everyday in ETFs. I know its not very scientific, I know its not very trader savvy, but I am trying not to lose money and I dont have $750,000 in my trading account like Fly to bail myself out of trouble each day scalping and buying 10,000-30,0000 shares of this or that-going the opposite way.
I dont think anyone would appreciate me posting in the PG brief one or two lines of the mood of the market for the next day. I just put it here from time to time.
Where is Devil Dog? I think he said he was going to race cars for a while so that may be where he is. Also each of my trucks bring in over 200,000 a year and all I have to do is go and buy them, put someone in them, run for Walmart like crazy and sit in my home office everyday doing about 2 hours of work for that business….pretty smart I THINK….my money is working FOR ME and not the other way around.
Have a good day everyone.
.
Big prop trading at Merrill last quarter. I wonder is this will also be the case at GS. Without the big leverage I don’t see how they could grow this business
Lady G
Don’t get discouraged by some of these fucks. Most can’t read or write let alone think to save themselves.
Just keep posting what you want and ignore the usual reprobates and uneducated miscreants. There’s a lot of homos here trying to be men, so the feminine side is appreciated.
Lady g- How is the trucking business doing. I know at the port over here shipments are down something like 20%
Moe
It’s cost of funds and return on equity that is important. Think of it this way, they could be given a reasonably high PE ratio if people think they going to make decent returns without a great deal of risk.
Prop trading was given a zero weighting in terms of PE for most trading houses as people really look for recurring income.
T MOE, we are entering a whole new ballpark for the finanicial workings of the whole country. The ways of the last decade of 100 to 1 leverage are over….. everyone has been squeezed back to 4 to 1, 6 to 1, and 10 to 1 leverage in most areas. This will take time to be realized and settled in, but slowly, all companies like GS will dwindle down as the executives lie day after day trying to prop the stock up……won’t happen, GS will be in my opinion a 20.00 dollar stock this year. The way they used to make money is over and there is no way, now that they are a bank, can bring in the profits they used to enjoy….
we have entered a whole brand new way of making money and it is a smaller way with smaller profits, which means smaller market caps for every company across the board.
It’s a new day and the rooms are getting smaller. that is the fact.
Removing the day to day bullshit Fuckery and inserting reality I see all banking stocks 50% lower than they are from even today by the time the dust settles.
Comment no. 2 above wasn’t me.
Too busy trading to write hooey like that.
It was a poser.
There is a lot of HOPE built into the beliefs of the longs this week. Sure sign of a disaster. When the last of these weak hands sell is when the bottom will be in, not before.
Fly – says The Boy who cried wolf
I think tomorrow will rip to the upside …. I’ve severely lightened up my shorts this am & am 50% long .. if we keep selling off, I’ll add more towards EOD
you know I am prone to stupid market calls … don’t listen but just know despite the obvious bad news to anyone who has a brain, we can go up & go up hard
T MOE, when I first got into this business by accident- a friend lost his job in the dotcom crash and needed a way to make a living and asked me if I would buy a truck for him- manage everything -take all the risk (if he is in an accident and hurts or kills someone I am the one they go after not the driver) and just let him drive.
I did a lot of research and determined the percentage of failures in small trucking businesses is extremely HIGH. So I told him the only way I would do it was to get a contract with Walmart.
So Walmart is doing great and we have tons of stores to go to here in Texas Louisiana and Oklahoma as well as picking up chicken and taking it to Walmart distribution centers and then getting palates and running some stores.
So small Mom and Pop trucking co- 1-5 trucks who are trying to pick up loads every day off the lists that are out there sponsored by middle men who take a profit -they are struggling. Guys who run containers from the Ship Yard have seen their work cut by 1/3 in the last 2 months (Dec/Jan). I know a guy who runs for Macys and he is trying to find somewhere else to work. Hazmat trucking is still doing well. I think only the largest companies will probably survive all of this- Hunt-Schneider types in the end. I am just fortunate to be with Walmart, if I wasnt I would sell all the trucks and go do something else.
.
the odds are bad on any double or triple long short etfs figure it out. Holding overnight is stupid holding both long short overnight at same time is double stupid.
For example; if just long or short If index starts at X value, goes up $1 one day and goes down $1 then repeats this pattern 15 times returning to value x after 30 days or so. The index will be at X while the value of your account will be much less. The only one making money from this is Statestreet or whoever is running the etf.