I’m not this great ol’ grizzly bearshitter that I make myself out to be. Deep down, I want to turn on my fellow bears and “give them the bayonet.” However, if I did so, I’d be sure to wear a handsome mustache, while holding a musket.
My year is pretty much over. My gains will be north of 60%, down from 80%+. Sometime tonight or tomorrow I will write a year end review.
Not too deep down, I am tempted to allocate cash into beaten down sectors, like oil/gas and banks. Shit, for the love of fried rice and chicken grease, I could buy a shit load of “cheap” stocks here and seemingly set myself up for a a monstrous January run.
Presently, market participants are dying to jack prices higher, since most of them are obsessed with “market miracles” and finding “good values.”
But, I have held back from buying anything, for fear of a sharp January surprise to the downside, based upon dismal retail sales data and weak jobs data. Also, I am very afraid to get long stocks ahead of any economic data.
Also, Obama’s stimulus plan will not add to the economy. It will simply fill the holes left on a loca/state level, with regards to infrastructure.
Today’s action was neutral. The bears took it to the bulls early on, but lost the late day battle.
In closing, I have hardly any long positions left, less than 10%. I still hold an enormous amount of inverse etf bullshit and a variety of scattered shorts. Over the next two days, I will reduce my inverse etf exposure by 10% and look to add one or two long ideas, in order to hedge my shorts—going into the new year.
Top picks: short KIM, short VNO
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Fly,
thanks for the ideas…I’m siting it out until @ 1/19, then try to cash in on the Chosen One’s crowning and subsequent brief honeymoon. Any rec’s on a play there? HNYMF
Some chart chompers would argue this tape looks to rollover as it did in August.
If you are ahead 60% I am King Faud.
Light volume + market churning while becoming oversold and holding up = market is going up
he probably is.
Hello King Faud.
May I offer you a barrel of light sweet for $20?
Horse fuckers
Freddy:
Everything changes in ’09. This action cannot be trusted.
Thanks Master, enjoy your evening.
There is no shortage of heavy playas who will be happy to sell you some shit sammies in ’09.
This sucks.
100% cash and not trusting the tape, whatsoever.
Will we ever get to trade again?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ab2E2u5P9sRA&refer=home
the DJIA will rally 1000 pts.
the “we shouldn’t go higher, but we are” rally of late 2008, early 2009.
then DOW 5000-6000.
LONG: AMZN, HK, and flying pickles.
should be read.
http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/smart_money_index_description.htm
STFU
S&P earnings will come in around $40 for ’09.
Go price that in, fuckface.
I agree with you it can not be trusted due to light volume. However, market is holding the lows and bullish short term
bullish based upon no activity. I am not throwing the st bull trade out the window. However, I can make a decision until i see more activity.
Bet on the fact that the world is unpredictable and the only known variable is that nothing is known and nothing is certain. Up or down depends on the current winds blowing across the world.
What makes a good trader? Someone that follows the wind?
Someone that rides the wind?
Someone that is the wind?
or someone that sits in the Center while the wind blows all around him.
I recently tweeted these, in case anyone is interested:
pool of stock recommendations, worth reading? Motley Fool, Forbes, Fortune, Jim Jubak, Kiplinger, SmartMoney, Zacks http://tinyurl.com/96cfac
Job creation, tax cuts, and freeing up credit for jumpstart US. Troubled Automotive, Retail, Homebuilders. Healthcare, energy, and commercial banks to show some improvement in 2009, per TMA http://tinyurl.com/78n5un
Well said, Fly. I agree, but there 1 or 2 sectors that are bullish like gold sector, so have to be very selective
i think u blow wind….phew
Freddy
ALL is perception I just did a UUP trade today.
“held back from buying anything, for fear ”
“for fear”
Im buying.
Bob Brill
You shouldnt listen to the ‘professionals’ and learn and make your own stocks picks. Those are the same people that predicted last year the Dow at 15000 and downgraded the banks like GS, C and JPM last week IMHO.
Lady Guenevere Says:
Freddy
ALL is perception I just did a UUP trade today.
Didnt see gold last Friday? Even Raging Cajun posted about it yesterday and Gio said EGO breaking out?
Freddy Krueger: yes, I’m working on the learning, while also leveraging/collaborating with good sources, where identifying good is a parallel effort 🙂
yes I know Gold is all the rage. Makes sense based on what the Fed did with interest rates, printing too much money and inflation worries.
There is also the other side of that coin…we are still deleveraging, a lot of the world besides Japan and maybe China’s currency will be worse off than ours…where will they go? Perhaps the dollar.
I dont know ‘ nothing is certain’ Flip a coin…..
Shit dude anybody who has been following you for long enough knows your not a permabear shitstick like the Dope on a Slope guy.
It’s hard to have a positive outlook considering the awful economic numbers, neighbors homes being short-saled, and my wife talking to panhandlers at the local grocery telling her she (the panhandler) lives behind the vons in a tent given to her by a neighbor, and friends businesses going bankrupt.
I mean WTF I’d sell my house but it might go up in value in 50 years.
Another REIT just slashed divi. Look for that to continue.
CSA Cogdell Spencer announced that the co will reduce its dividend from an annual equivalent of $1.40 per share to $0.90 per share (8.89 -0.72)
Co announced that its Board has approved a business plan for 2009 that focuses on cost reductions and the preservation of capital for productive deployment while allowing the Company to pursue its integrated delivery strategy despite client-related project delays resulting from the current financial crisis. As part of this plan, CSA will implement a cost saving plan which, when combined with a reduction in force, will generate ~$17 mln in annual savings. The plan includes elimination of all executive incentive compensation for the 2009 fiscal year, unless budgeted benchmarks are substantially exceeded. The Erdman subsidiary will implement a reduction in force in order to right-size the organization for contracted 2009 revenues. The staff reduction will be made effective January 6-9, 2009. Approximately 115 jobs will be eliminated… Reduce its dividend from an annual equivalent of $1.40 per share and unit ($0.35 per share and unit per quarter) to an annual equivalent of $0.90 per share and unit ($0.225 per share and unit per quarter).
Cascade DOWN starts tomorrow. Day 55.
I seriously want to buy some M, but after what is going to be a weak holiday season, I’m waiting until after numbers come out. If it’s cheap now, it’ll be a bargain then.
DD says Cascade DOWN starts tomorrow. Day 55.
We will see…Still waiting for your NEW LOWS FOR DECEMBER…and pretty much you have tomorrow for that one…looks like Mr Market is holding the lows and the lows of November…and the EOD looked a little bullish…
Dawg, You missed an important post…
_____________
apparently this site is a sad little place.
http://timothysykes.com/2008/12/29/ive-been-wrong-6-picks-in-a-row-what-will-i-do/
Just passing the message along.
Don’t post links from infomercial bloggers on this Godly site, please. His type makes me want to punch something.
How dare Sykes speak about this site.
FLY’s predictions suck….check mine out.
Investing
Kass: 20 Surprises for 2009
By Doug Kass
RealMoney Silver Contributor
12/29/2008 11:59 AM EST
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/p/newsanalysis/investing/10455209.html
This blog post originally appeared on RealMoney Silver on Dec. 29 at 8:49 a.m. EST.
“Never make predictions, especially about the future.”
— Casey Stengel
In late December over the past six years, I have taken a page from former Morgan Stanley strategist Byron Wien (now the chief investment strategist at Pequot Capital Management) and prepared a list of possible surprises for the coming year.
These are not intended to be predictions but rather events that have a reasonable chance of occurring despite the general perception that the odds are very long. I call these “possible improbable” events.
The real purpose of this endeavor is to consider positioning a portion of my portfolio in accordance with outlier events, with the potential for large payoffs. After all, the quality of Wall Street research has deteriorated (in some measure because of brokerage industry consolidation) and remains, more than ever, maintenance-oriented, conventional and “groupthink,” even despite the mandated reforms over the past several years. Mainstream and consensus expectations are just that, and in most cases they are deeply imbedded into today’s stock prices. If I succeed in at least making you think about outlier events, then the exercise has been worthwhile.
Our surprise list for 2008 proved to be our most successful ever, with 60% of last year’s “possible improbables” proving to be materially on target. Almost half of the prior year’s predicted surprises actually came to pass, up from one-third in 2006 and from 20% in 2005. Nearly of one-half 2004’s prognostications proved prescient and about one-third in the first year of our surprises for 2003.
Investing based on some of my outlier events over the past 12 months would have yielded good absolute and relative returns and would have protected investors somewhat from the market’s downdraft.
My surprise list for 2008 hit on a number of themes that dominated the investment landscape this year: the extent of the weakness in worldwide economic activity, the severity of the housing downturn, the collapse of retail spending, the obliteration of the hedge fund industry, the reawakening of market volatility, the spike in oil, the cessation of private equity deals and the steady drop in large bank shares.
“The housing depression of 2007 morphs into the retailing depression of 2008.”
“With a continuation of the credit and liquidity crises and an increased recognition that financial retrenchment will take years (not months), volatility pushes even higher. Daily moves of 1% to 2% become more commonplace, serving to further alienate the individual investor.”
“The hedge fund community is disintermediated in 2008. Outflows accelerate, abetting an already conspicuous trend of rising volatility in a market that behaves more like a commodity than ever.”
“Job losses begin in mid-2008.”
“An unprecedented and abrupt drop in personal consumption expenditures occurs.”
“Retail stocks, especially women’s apparel, are among the worst-performing stocks in 2008.”
“The Federal Reserve embarks upon a series of moves to ease monetary policy in 2008. Nearly every meeting is accompanied by a 25-basis-point decrease in the federal funds rate, even despite continued inflationary pressures. Nevertheless, the economy fails to revive as the Fed pushes on a string.”
“Growth in the Western European economies deteriorates throughout the year.”
“Financial stocks fail to recover. No financial company is immune to the eroding market conditions, spike in market volatility, the uneven direction in commodities and currency prices. Even the Leader of the Pack, Goldman Sachs (GS) , makes several bad bets in the derivative, currency and commodity markets, and its shares begin to underperform its peers as profit forecasts move lower. Citigroup (C) halves its dividend…. Asset sales and writedowns leave the bank crippled.”
“Bear Stearns investor Joe Lewis loses nearly $350 million on his near 10% position in the brokerage firm.”
“Mutual fund outflows and uncertainty regarding the integrity of money market funds result in the asset management stocks being among the worst-performing sectors in 2008.”
“With private equity deals at a standstill, Blackstone (BX) shares trade down close to $10 a share.”
“Reversing its recent strength, the U.S. dollar’s value falls by over 10% in 2008, and gold rises to over $1,000 an ounce.”
“The price of crude oil eclipses $135 a barrel.”
“There are several major Enron-like accounting scandals in 2008, causing investor confidence to plummet; these will come in some large financial companies in Europe.”
Without further ado, here is my list of 20 surprises for 2009. In doing so, we start the new year with the surprising story that ended the old year, the alleged Madoff Ponzi scheme.
1. The Russian mafia and Russian oligarchs are found to be large investors with Madoff. During the next few weeks, a well-known CNBC investigative reporter documents that the Russian oligarchs, certain members of the Russian mafia and several Colombian drug cartel families have invested and laundered more than $2 billion in Madoff’s strategy through offshore master feeders and through several fund of funds. There are several unsuccessful attempts made on Madoff and/or his family’s lives. With the large Russian investments in Madoff having gone sour and in light of the subsequent acts of violence against his family, U.S./Russian relations, which already were at a low point, are threatened. Madoff’s lawyers disclose that he has cancer, and his trial is delayed indefinitely as he undergoes chemotherapy.
2. Housing stabilizes sooner than expected. President Obama, under the aegis of Larry Summers, initiates a massive and unprecedented Marshall Plan to turn the housing market around. His plan includes several unconventional measures: Among other items is a $25,000 tax credit on all home purchases as well as a large tax credit and other subsidies to the financial intermediaries that provide the mortgage loans and commitments. This, combined with a lowering in mortgage rates (and a boom in refinancing), the bankruptcy/financial restructuring of three public homebuilders (which serves to lessen new home supply) and a flip-flop in the benefits of ownership vs. the merits of renting, trigger a second-quarter 2009 improvement in national housing activity, but the rebound is uneven. While the middle market rebounds, the high-end coastal housing markets remain moribund, as they impacted adversely by the Wall Street layoffs and the carnage in the hedge fund industry.
3. The nation’s commercial real estate markets experience only a shallow pricing downturn in the first half of 2009. President Obama’s broad-ranging housing legislation incorporates tax credits and other unconventional remedies directed toward nonresidential lending and borrowing. Banks become more active in office lending (as they do in residential real estate lending), and the commercial mortgage-backed securities market never experiences anything like the weakness exhibited in the 2007 to 2008 market. Office REIT shares, similar to housing-related equities, rebound dramatically, with several doubling in the new year’s first six months.
4. The U.S. economy stabilizes sooner than expected. After a decidedly weak January-to-February period (and a negative first-quarter 2009 GDP reading, which is similar to fourth-quarter 2008’s black hole), the massive and creative stimulus instituted by the newly elected President begins to work. Banks begin to lend more aggressively, and lower interest rates coupled with aggressive policy serve to contribute to an unexpected refinancing boom. By March, personal consumption expenditures begin to rebound slowly from an abysmal holiday and post-holiday season as energy prices remain subdued, and a shallow recovery occurs far sooner than many expect. Second-quarter corporate profits growth comfortably beats the downbeat and consensus forecasts as inflation remains tame, commodity prices are subdued, productivity rebounds and labor costs are well under control.
5. The U.S. stock market rises by close to 20% in the year’s first half. Housing-related stocks (title insurance, home remodeling, mortgage servicers and REITs) exhibit outsized and market-leading gains during the January-to-June interval. Heavily shorted retail and financial stocks also advance smartly. The year’s first-half market rise of about 20% is surprisingly orderly throughout the six-month period, as volatility moves back down to pre-2008 levels, but rising domestic interest rates, still weak European economies and a halt to China’s economic growth limit the stock market’s progress in the back half of the year.
6. A second quarter “growth scare” bursts the bubble in the government bond market. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note moves steadily higher from 2.10% at year-end to over 3.50% by early fall, putting a ceiling on the first-half recovery in the U.S. stock market, which is range-bound for the remainder of the year, settling up by approximately 20% for the 12-month period ending Dec. 31, 2009. Foreign central banks, faced with worsening domestic economies, begin to shy away from U.S. Treasury auctions and continue to diversify their reserve assets. By year-end, the U.S. dollar represents less than 60% of worldwide reserve assets, down from 2008’s year-end at 62% and down from 70% only five years ago. China’s 2008 economic growth proves to be greatly exaggerated as unemployment surprisingly rises in early 2009 and the rate of growth in China’s real GDP moves towards zero by the second quarter. Unlike more developed countries, the absence of a social safety net turns China’s fiscal economic policy inward and aggressively so. Importantly, China not only is no longer a natural buyer of U.S. Treasuries but it is forced to dip into it’s piggy bank of foreign reserves, adding significant upside pressure to U.S. note and bond yields.
7. Commodities markets remain subdued. Despite an improving domestic economy, a further erosion in the Western European and Chinese economies weighs on the world’s commodities markets. Gold never reaches $1,000 an ounce and trades at $500 an ounce at some point during the year. (Gold-related shares are among 2009’s worst stock market performers.) The price of crude oil briefly rallies early in the year after a step up in the violence in the Middle East but trades in a broad $25 to $65 range for all of 2009 as President Obama successfully introduces aggressive and meaningful legislation aimed at reducing our reliance on imported oil. The price of gasoline briefly breaches $1.00 a gallon sometime in the year. The U.S. dollar outperforms most of the world’s currencies as the U.S. regains its place as an economic and political powerhouse.
8. Capital spending disappoints further. Despite an improving economy, large-scale capital spending projects continue to be delayed in favor of maintenance spending. Technology shares continue to lag badly, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) files bankruptcy.
9. The hedge fund and fund of funds industries do not recover in 2009. The Madoff fraud, poor hedge fund performance and renewed controversy regarding private equity marks (particularly among a number of high-profile colleges like Harvard and Yale) prove to be a short-term death knell to the alternative investments industry. As well, the gating of redemption requests disaffects high net worth, pension plan, endowment and University investors to both traditional hedge funds and to private equity (which suffers from a series of questionable and subjective marking of private equity deal pricings at several leading funds). Three of the 10 largest hedge funds close their doors as numerous hedge funds reduce their fee structures in order to retain investors. Faced with an increasingly uncertain investor base, several big hedge funds merge with like-sized competitors in a quickening hedge fund industry consolidation. By year-end, the number of hedge funds is down by well over 50%.
10. Mutual fund redemptions from 2008 reverse into inflows in 2009. The mutual fund industry does not suffer the same fate as the hedge fund industry. In fact, a renaissance of interest in mutual funds (especially of a passive/indexed kind) develops. Fidelity is the largest employer of the graduating classes (May 2009) at the Wharton and Harvard Business Schools; it goes public in late 2009 in the year’s largest IPO. Shares of T. Rowe Price (TROW) and AllianceBernstein (AB) enjoy sharp price gains in the new year. Bill Miller retires from active fund management at Legg Mason (LM) .
11. State and municipal imbalances and deficits mushroom. The municipal bond market seizes up in the face of poor fiscal management, revenue shortfalls and rising budgets at state and local levels. Municipal bond yields spike higher. A new Municipal TARP totaling $2 trillion is introduced in the year’s second half.
12. The automakers and the UAW come to an agreement over wages. Under the pressure of late first-quarter bankruptcies, the UAW agrees to bring compensation in line with non-U.S. competitors and exchanges a reduction in retiree health care benefits for equity in the major automobile manufacturers.
13. The new administration replaces SEC Commissioner Cox. Upon his inauguration, President Obama immediately replaces SEC Commissioner Christopher Cox with Yale professor Dr. Jeffrey Sonnenfeld. The new SEC commissioner recommends that the uptick rule be reinstated and undertakes a yearlong investigation/analysis into the impact of Ultra Bear ETFs on the market. Later in the year, the administration recommends that the SEC be abolished and folded into the Treasury Department. Dr. Sonnenfeld returns to Yale University.
14. Large merger of equals deals multiply. Economies of scale and mergers of equals become the M&A mantras in 2009, and niche investment banking boutiques such as Evercore (EVR) , Lazard (LAZ) and Greenhill (GHL) flourish. Goldman Sachs and Citigroup announce a merger of equals, but Goldman maintains management control of the combined entity. Morgan Stanley (MS) acquires Blackstone. Disney (DIS) purchases Carnival (CCL) . Microsoft (MSFT) acquires Yahoo! (YHOO) at $5 a share.
15. Focus shifts for several media darlings. Though continuing on CNBC, Jim “El Capitan” Cramer announces his own reality show that will air on NBC in the fall. At the time his reality show premieres, he also writes a new book, Stay Mad for Life: How to Prosper From a Buy/Hold Investment Strategy. Dr. Nouriel Roubini continues to talk depression, but the price of his speaking engagements are cut in half. He writes a new book, The New Depression: How Leverage’s Long Tail Will Result in Bread Lines. “Kudlow & Company’s” Larry Kudlow proclaims that it’s time to harvest the “mustard seeds” of growth and, in an admission of the Democrats’ growing economic successes, officially leaves the ranks of the Republican party and returns to his Democratic roots. Yale’s Dr. Robert Shiller adopts a variant and positive view on housing and the economy, joining the bullish ranks, and writes a new book, The New Financial Order: Economic Opportunity in the 21st Century.
16. The Internet becomes the tactical nuke of the digital age. The Web is invaded on many levels as governments, consumers and investors freak out. First, an act of cyberterrorism occurs that compromises the security of a major government (similar to the attacks this year emanating from the Chinese military aimed at the German Chancellery) or uses DoS against media and e-commerce sites. Second, a major data center will fail and will be far worse than the 1988 Cornell student incident that infected about 5% of the Unix boxes on the early Internet. Third, cybercrime explodes exponentially in 2008. Financial markets will be exposed to hackers using elaborate fraud schemes (such as liquidating and sweeping online brokerage accounts and shorting stocks, then employing a denial-of-service attack against the company). Fourth, Storm Trojan reappears. (Same as last year.)
17. A handful of sports franchises file bankruptcy. Three Major League Baseball teams fail in the middle of the season and seek government bailouts in order to complete the season. The Wilpon family, victimized by Madoff, sells the New York Mets to SAC’s Steve Cohen. The New York Yankees are undefeated in the 2009 season, and Madonna and A-Rod have a child together (out of wedlock).
18. The Fox Business Network closes. Racked by large losses, Rupert Murdoch abandons the Fox Business Network. CNBC rehires several prior employees and expands its programming into complete weekend coverage. Two popular CNBC commentators “go mainstream” and become regulars on NBC news programs.
19. Old, leveraged media implode. The worlds of leverage and old media collide in a massive flameout of previous leveraged deals. Univision and Clear Channel go bankrupt. The New York Times (NYT) teeters financially.
20. The Middle East’s infrastructure build-out is abruptly halted owing to “market conditions.” Lower oil prices, weakening European economies and a broad overexpansion wreak havoc with the Middle East’s markets and economies.
Doug Kass is the author of The Edge, a blog on RealMoney Silver that features real-time shorting opportunities on the market.
Cheeez…just checked out ole’ Timmy’s site…poor guy looks like some boiler room fuck who buys his suits at Sears…
A warning for you new readers of iBC
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q5VxvF7DaCw&feature=channel_page
Traders who look for patterns in their trading are sad little people…They post on sad little places like IBankCoin and Elitetrader, lying about their gains, too afraid to post the truth, that they are failures like the 90-95% of traders we know from too many academic studies are losers/failures…
you can definitely get shot in this neighborhood
This guy got it right on at Syke’s site:
Tim,
Two things – stop fighting. Makes u look petty, young and immature – also keeps the so called haters coming back. Yours is the only site I know that I screen for laughter rather than concrete information. A little silence and humility at times. Fight, fight, fight all the time – jeeze. What an annoying little fuck.
Another thing, the stocks you trade are, for the most part, thinly traded and can easily be pushed around. Hope you haven’t made too many enemies out there. These guys could easily follow you just to whip you and your subscribers out of trades for laughs. I’m certain there are a few that would love to see you fail. Your system worked while you were silent and had the edge to yourself. You and your system could now just be a play toy for those that would just love to see you fall flat on your face. I’m just sayin. Watch your back.
Lastly, change your schtick. I know that you probably sat down with a marketing agent that helped you develop the Tim brand after WSW, but it needs to evolve with time. The same old drone about “there are stupid people out there” and that this “corrupt business….blah, blah, blah….” How about this – there are those that are self made, and are interested in the system you devised, and do have money to spend. But these same people are put off by the petty, immature, shallow presentation that is TIMMAY. Grow up and out of your parents influence – it’s time. It may also lead to a better second act.
Tim – we get it – you are your own man. Now mature and show us that you are a man instead of an annoying petulant kid. You have intellegence – stop tossing it in your subscribers face every goddamn day. Do you think the followers cant read your results plastered on you blog, cant read Covestor, cant figure that the stock you mentioned didnt work out. Give them some credit. Results speak for themselves, if you have em – there’s no need to talk about em. Believe me, we know who is doing well and who is not.
Can you imagine being the way you are in 10 years? It would be laughable. mature with your audience. That is the way to keep them.
I may just decide to stick around and buy something.
Get this – no charge! Imagine that.
lmao
I love the Wire! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1cn3PnaGO8
Sad thing is, it’s actually a watered down version of Baltimore. I had to run a red light to get away from a gun fight.
Just Dance – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M65zI9LH-as
Q4,
You have linked the worst video/music clips of ’08…maybe ’09 will consist of more than hiphop and girlpop…one can hope…I’m just saying…
I like that song, Q4. Happy New Year.
Not only that he can’t spell fat. His shirt says phat.
Why would somebody put (ph)fat on a shirt?
Must be a Cutter & Buck knockoff.
hahaha Allpro… don’t be dissing Q4 now. It’s a rarified taste that you can only aspire to.
TC, who are you talking ’bout?
Boca- Didn’t realize their is a ‘hood in Boca. Probably near Federal Highway (useless one (US1)).
this is bullshit. let them lose the money.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081229/madoff_scandal.html
I just wrote this below. Enjoy:
http://tinyurl.com/9po55s
My Channel Checks – GMCR, ATVI, ERTS, MGM, COST
December 29th, 2008 | Categories: Channel Checks
One of my hobbies is shopping and observing what retailers are doing and what people are buying. At least a couple times a month, I visit Costco, Best Buy, Target, Walmart, Bed Bath and Beyond, local malls, etc. I will post my anecdotal observations as I see them.
-Keurig single-serve coffee makers are on fire (GMCR). They are front and center when you walk into my local Bed Bath and Beyond. At Costco, I see tons of them in people’s shopping carts. I guess 40-50c per decent cup of coffee is beating even the $1.30 you pay at Dunkin Donuts or more at Starbucks in this economy.
-Videogame band kits sales are imploding. Everywhere I go I see piles and piles of inventory of Rock Band (ERTS) and Guitar Hero World Tour (ATVI). Looks like retailers extrapolated last year’s sales trends, not thinking people aren’t really going to spend $190 for second set of eye sore toy band instruments in their living room during this recession. I actually picked up a new Rock Band 2 kit for $109 with $25 gift card during a fire-sale a couple weekends ago. Things are that bad. They sold me a $189 band kit for effectively $85. Sick.
-Casinos are imploding. A week ago, I saw a $99 a night deal at the new MGM Grand at Foxwoods on their website, so I gave it a shot. Hell $99 for a brand new casino hotel room is a pretty damn good deal. When I got there, I was shocked how empty it was. There were 3X-4Xs more casino employees on the floor that players. The Foxwoods buffet was more than 1/2 empty during a key dinner time period. I heard that MGM already let go and bought out 40% of their new employees with more to come. On the flip side if you’re looking for a good deal, now is the time to go. When we left with one last breakfast meal, it was like having a personal chef cook us eggs, toast, and potatoes made-to-order as we were the only ones in the food court area.
-Private equity companies are toast. At Toysrus, I noticed that they are pricing certain items UP. Yes you read that right. I saw a number of PS3 games priced at $68.99 instead of the normal $59.99. The private equity owners think they can pull an Eddie Lampert raise prices on poor people because they don’t have cars and are forced to shop at their local K-Mart strategy. Guess what guys? That’s not going to work in this economy. Ever hear of everyday low prices by this company called Walmart? Once one person realizes they are trying to rip people off, you kill the brand image as people like me tell the world, “Don’t shop at rip-off Toysrus!”
-While chowing down on my $1.50 hot dog and soda at Costco, I noticed a trend in most of the shopping carts that go by is they are filled mostly with consumables like toilet paper, paper towels, and diapers. There are less discretionary electronics, TVs, and entertainment purchases that even a few weeks ago. Bad sign for the economy.
Hey Fly!
Can you get these guys to quit posting f–king novels on the blog.
C’mon posters…
Keep it short and sweet, jeeze.
TC, one branch of the family comes from Riviera Beach.
Finally got it, TC, I meant you can get shot in the IBC “neighborhood”. It’s just a saying I use, meaning tough crowd here.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aa1_K4omYXEU&refer=home
Fly,
Why not just buy some. Don’t go full-in, but pick a plan over the next 60 trading days to go in.
I cherry picked some bullish charts today to post at
http://www.goodnewseconomist.com and I’ll have some more predictions for tomorrow… but it seems to me that we have tested the bottom several times in the past 60 days.
Also consider money managers are likely to sell any dogs at a horrendous year end… but then come jan 1, they all will be bottom feeding on oversold inventory, hoping to hit on those several home-run stocks that will save their butt come next year this time.
Chivasontherocks posted:
“Once we get through the crisis, we will find that support is higher than $40 a barrel,” said Sarah Emerson, managing director of Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. “The decline in demand has already occurred. A lot of analysts were late coming to realize that. By next summer this market should be turning around.”
Um… Earth to Wakefiled, MA. Earth to Wakefield MA. Do you idiots still not get it? Thi isn’t a fucking little blip on the radar screen where we’ll ‘come out of it by summer.’
Fucking morons.
Money lost: Trillions. Lessons learned by the financial community: None.
For everyone else, there’s Poverty.
Hmmm….maybe we just saw the bottom in oil.
You never know, the lows might have been put in already!
I wonder…..
Would someone named the Good News Economist put a certain spin on his blog? Nah, I’m probably just being paranoid….
Goldie,
There is a 50-50 chance that I would.
The blog is really just there to balance out all the bad news that is posted everywhere else. There is no spin, just cherry picking the good news.
But good news or bad news. Cherry picking or balanced… dollar cost averaging is the way to go if you want to buy stocks…
and for that matter, sell them.
GNE
http://www.goodnewseconomist.com
Fly, I would like to form an alliance with you. Together we can ride on Timothy Sykes and destroy him! My rap rhymes are legendary. Hit me up if you are interested. [email protected]
jonnyb,
i never posted that. i am long 100 contracts from 38.58. up almost 200k so far.
Fuck Doug Kass
The Mother Fucker is extremely compromised
GNE,
Dollar Cost Averaging is complete bullshit! Almost everyone who employed a DCA strategy over the last decade will have their balls handed to them. There is only one time to buy stocks and that is when they are cheap.
This GMAC investment is disgusting. The Gov’t is peeing on your head.
Investing in auto loans will yield tremendous returns to taxpayers.
Thanks for linking to my site, you dumb bitches helped me make $5k in DVD sales today, gratzie!
For the love of god, ban him.
what is the deal with every third-tier jackass posting a link to his shitty blog lately?
ban the most transparent trader out there? LOL, shows how fake the gains u “traders” have…what a joke…take me on on covestor or be forever considered a coward by anyone with a brain
No Timmy, you should be banned for two reasons.
1. You have a very gay name.. “Tim” is a very gay name.
2. You’re very irritating and most annoying.
Nothing wrong with gay people per se, though.
Fly, please ban the fuck.
Tim:
If you made money from the link, more power to you. Glad to be of assistance.
As for your obsession with Covestor:
Why not go measure your cock against your neighbor’s?
Just go away nicely.
Who said you should be banned because of your transparency? You should be banned because you are a dirt bag, annoying jerk.
You call us liars on here, but you have no idea what the hell you’re talking about or haven’t done any research on the matter. If you actually read iBankCoin during the year, you would of seen THE FLY actually nailing calls before they happen over and over again. Go back into your rat infested hole. You are just a two bit fool.
Tim –
Call us when you trade stocks with a market cap bigger than DEVILDOG’s 5-figure Scottrade account, ok? Most folks around here have more money than you will ever dream of. In the meantime, shove one of your useless DVDs up your ass sideways.
Good News Economist,
Cherry picking news is the definition of spin. A good economist is an objective economist.
tim,
never thought i would see the day when somebody had enough skills to out idiot me ..
congrats champ
Goldie,
There is a subtle difference.
A good economist can still be objective and choose to talk/write about the silver lining in every situation.
For instance, gasoline is now down by $2.50 a gallon. Not good news for those who were long on oil at 130/gal, but great news for the US economy which now gets the equivalent of a billion dollars a day tax cut compared to mid-July.
The point of my blog is that most mainstream media choose to print/write/focus on the negative. Doesn’t mean I don’t see it or understand the negative, just means I choose to write about the upside…. rather than what most outlets chose… the downside.
GNE
GNE
Yes, but you’re seem to be far too focused on the good stuff as though that outweighs the bad shit happening. The only bright spot is the Fed printing money, if I can call it a bright spot.
If that wasn’t happening we’d be in a full scale depression by now.
One other thing, Timmy. 95% of the population should not be trading as they don’t have the skills or the mental discipline to do so. So in a way you’re profiting from predatory actions.
The other thing is that your “system” is very gay.
Everybody on this forum is very gay tonite.
bunch of homophobes here, huh? typical degenerate traders…i’m not that great a trader, but it sure isnt hard to be a better person than just about you entire “fan base” fly…every day i hate this joke of industry more and more, cant wait to change it for the better!
oh and my obsession with covestor, i could care les who’s #1–me for the past year–i care about backing up blog posts/”calls” with verifiable info…not that hard to submit info to them, anyone who isnt regulated from doing so is a total coward/waste of my time…we know the fact majority of trader lose and yet everyone posts that they win, i have no time for liars
reverse psychology…. Tim, you like boobies.
Ever notice how the laughing stock is always the most loud mouthed? Yeah…that’s right. The fly has a large mouth, but he uses it jokingly and his comrades approve of it. Tim is the annoying sidekick who wants to rise to power lol.
Nuff said, quit trying to swim upstream fearless timmy for you will be soon wiped out or … pwned… as those internet folk say.