The tone for the markets will be set in early 2009. There are two train of thoughts now.
1. Everything is priced in. Large pools of cash are dying to buy equities.
2. This is just the beginning of the economic slide. Large pools of cash are on the sidelines because stocks are for asshats.
Personally, I feel, as always, stocks are for asshats. Going into 2009, I have a short/sweet list of potential short sale set ups worth perusing.
Here they are:
AIV, AXP, LM, BAM, KIM, VNO, CMA, HK, XOM, RIG and PACW.
In the event the market shows early strength, quickly, I will buy the following for trades:
GG, AMZN, NFLX, TEF, CNI, ENR, ACLI, BG, ABB, SY, INT, AET, NUE and GTY.
Without a doubt, there are a lot of good values, if looking at stocks from a traditional point of view. However, we are not in traditional times.
While you sit there, in your bullsiht pleather chair from Staples, the government is stealing from you. They are taking your money and giving it away, in order to “save the economy.” Moreover, on a local level, they will be raising your taxes and reducing services. Quality of life is on the decline—no doubt.
Like I said before, commercial real estate is doomed to be fucked every which way but loose. If you are in the camp of thought that commercial Re will undergo a mere “shallow pullback,” like “The Field Clown Doug Kass,” you are in for a very, very rude awakening.
Sit there and wait for the vacancies and dividend cuts to happen; then get back to me and say “KIM is a great fucking buy.”
Finally, at the present, I am long SMN, REW, FAZ, SRS and DUG. In an effort to reduce my inverse etf positions, I will swap out of them, in exchange for direct short positions against select names.
Here are some swap ideas:
SMN for short MON or MOS.
REW for short AAPL or MSFT.
FAZ for short WFC or BAC.
SRS for short KIM or VNO.
DUG for short XOM or RIG.
Short treasuries
Short treasuries
Short treasuries
My purchase of USO, on Friday, appears to be genius.
The Fly oil bottom is in.
You’re a fucking idiot. Enough said.
Hater…
Your time horizon is like 4 hours. So any position that you tout is somewhat meaningless.
QED.
Fly, there is some research that shows a relationship between the price of earl and the price of earl services. Last check the earl services were getting pricey, relative to the price of oil.
That’s bull. I’ve held DXO since December 8th. Just messin’ with ya. Go eat a samwich.
Fly: thanks for the post, as always.
Woodshedder: if you please, what are “earl” and “earl services”? A brief google search was unproductive.
Thanks for all the great posts Master Fly, been busy ovah here 😛
KBH is a nicely rolling over, if she bounces back to $13.20 have at her.
Bob, earl=oil 😉
Below is the strategy I mentioned above about trading oil stocks vs. oil itself.
http://marketsci.wordpress.com/2008/12/29/trading-strategy-oil-stocks-vs-oil/
Last time I checked, Gaza strip had no oil. This is yet another opportunity to short oil.
TSO, known processor of Earl, continues to BTFO, albeit at a maddeningly slow pace.
All hail Signorelli Fibonacci.
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Nice list Fly. Agreed, stocks in 2009 are for asshats.
Last time I checked, Gaza strip had no oil. This is yet another opportunity to short oil.
The brilliance of comments like these are literally blinding.
How lucky we are to be the benificiaries of such a crack research staff.
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Next assignment: Oil content of the Kashmir Region, Indian sub-contintent.
We await your analysis.
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I guess Bob has not been South of the Mason Dixon line or seen Jed Clampett on the Telly.
It is confirmed that 4fl3x is Mr.Cub as only he is an expert in KBH.
Woodshedder: if you please, what are “earl” and “earl services”? A brief google search was unproductive.
Please repair to Brooklyn, where the “ur” and the “oi” sounds are “revoised.”
Hence, when one is feeling a chill in one’s Canarsie duplex, one might find it necessary to repair to the basement and review the status of one’s “earl boiner.”
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Yes, CubsRock went from a pleasant fellow who I enjoyed being long the homebuilders with during a bounce sometime ago to a fellow who has not been so pleasant. Must be the new moniker. We still love you Cubs!
Anybody else bored besides me?
Jakegint – Analysis completed. Kashmir region also has no oil. This brilliant research is not only blinding but it’s blindingly fast.
Caddy — “Earl” is also the term in Brooklyn and large parts of (old school) Lower East and West side Manhattan, as both my grandfathers, whose only notions of “South” were in regard to that odd state of Florida, would attest.
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Jake:
TSO’s has negative margins right now. Also, soon enough, their credit lines will be cut.
Good luck.
Fly?
I have a nomination, and perhaps even a salaried position —
Itchy and Scratchy: “Official Earl Location Analyst,” PPT.
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As long as we can hire you as “knife catcher,” I’m okay with it.
TSO’s has negative margins right now. Also, soon enough, their credit lines will be cut.
And yet, it’s up some 40% since the 15th of December. I wonder what the market knows that we do not?
(XOM acquisition, p’rhaps?)
Good luck.
Like I am with the research of your official earl location analyst, it appears I am already the beneficiary.
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Jake,
indeed, what does the market know?
lol.
Haven’t you ever read “Peak Earl”?
Or how about “No blood for Earl”?
Or how about that windfall profit tax on Big Earl?
As Jake seems to enjoy pain, I think he’ll enjoy his new position.
If TSO is the knife of which you speak, then let me be pierced like Blessed St. Sebastian himself.
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Oh not another meaningless last hour rally…
Sure Jake, the market always knows. It is “smart.”
Here we go. Late day fuckery.
Knife catcher … that was me last summer, on a strictly voluntary basis.
The market “knew” so much in early 2007 about BSC. And, it “knew” so much about oil when RIG was printing $140.
here we go with this last hour bullshit again.
So you’re saying USO won’t be higher than today 2 years from now?
By the way: there is no tax loss selling to be had. Moreover, early 2009, everything bad will morph into good. People can’t wait to get their hands on stocks.
Can’t fucking wait.
Shed, you have a 2 year time horizon? I thought you were doing strictly short-term system trades (of etf’s).
How can one take this site seriously with all the bullshit single digit IQ advertising?
I’m out
Caching!!!
Nothing but love from the market…
Boca, still doing the short-term stuff, almost exclusively.
I’ve bought some very small positions in oil. I’m willing to give them a couple of months. I’m talking about 2% of my total account. I may add if we can get some higher highs and higher lows.
As bad as I am at timing discretionary purchases, I still have to dip my toes in the water, from time to time.
See you later Macke.
Wood:
2 years? Are you kidding?
Regards
Management
Fly, not really serious. You were the one that set-up the two year time horizon, via your mention of BSC in earl-y 2007.
You’d have to have a time masheene to be able to see 2 years out.
Maybe Macke would rather see us selling some DVDs…lol…
Never bet against Exxon Mobil. They have so much cash that even The Fly is helpless.
And seminars.
Wood and I will charge 1k per head. Wood will discuss the greatness of oil, sub $40, while I just jibber jabber about how cool I am.
XOM only has $6 in net cash per share.
Lots of potential downside there.
In comparison,AAPL has $27 in net cash per share.
loaded HIG @ 15.25 … loading more here around 15.50 and looking for rip over 16
lol…I need a cooler haircut if we are charging 1K.
I need to call my Mom and tell her to come over and do my laundry before we hit the road.
I grabbed some DXO after hours on Weds @ $1.71. I will sell the last of it today because Master Fly knows oil. Master Fly got me out of DUG 2 weeks ago with perfect timing.
Fly fishing rods are made of Bamboo.
Odd, no
I will wear a ski mask.
You guys don’t mind if I host the seminar with a fucking ski mask on, do you?
The seminar will be held at the Ritz.
I think Jeff Macke was talking about the ads on CNBC.
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Also added AIPC today @22.27
great numbers and charts on AIPC and HIG
Cubs, nice trade. I’ve got RSI2 on USO at near 80. Good place for a swing exit.
I have it sitting on top of the channel on the hrly. There is potential pop/squeeze (just like Dec 15th) over the channel which is what I’m holding out for.
Fly,
Love your seminar idea. Since you’re planning to wear a ski mask, I can set up the steel cage, octagon “death match” between you and Ducati—who undoubtedly will show up just to heckle.
Wear your spandex biker shorts or green IBC UnderArmour tights to the match. Cup is optional.
Holy crap, the dollar just shot up in “no time!”
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Considering that Duc like to inject himself with steroids, I will be sure to have a cast iron chair hidden under the ring.
FLY, Host your seminar dressed in Gimp costume
Will Mrs. Fly be your “ring honey”?
TradingGoddess will be providing the “eye candy.”
CAP:
Go fuck a flag pole.
The Fly v. Ducati with special tag team match featuring Meredith “Ursa Major” Whitney and Tim “I shower fully clothed” Knight.
Meredith Whitney doesn’t ring in the new year, she wrings out investors.
Breaking!!
Signorelli Fibonacci Spotted Catching SPY calls From a Charming Street Urchin in the Piazza!!
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LMAO
(Be sure to check out Signorelli FatFuckio grinning away in the back center of the shot)
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…maybe I could do a little Astrology at dem seminars !
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Uhhh…btw…BUY GOLD !!!
.
Breaking! Freshly Quoffed Devil Dog Spotted At Gym Pose Off with Mustachio’d “Spotter Servant!”
Reportedly quoted as saying “Merry Christmas! New Lows in 12 shopping days!”
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