Wall Street is the new Al Qaeda,
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Joined Nov 10, 2007
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Agreed.
hahaha, the new favorite “enemy” of Washington politicians and their buddy-pals, Main Street.
It’s a regular blame-o-rama.
Sorry Jake. I HATE midwest accents. Long story, don’t ask.
This Palin character grates my soul.
Mainstreeters are the new serfs.
That’s the old divide and conquer tactic though, making us all pawns of politician’s games once we’re divided into handy little groups.
Well… You guys do make bets on whether a hurricane will come in and destroy lives and take out a few oil rigs and refineries in the process.
Hurricanes can hurt me too. I get your point though.
fly
What do you think about giving away more of your money to Barney Frank?
That’s what your craving,eh??
I actually saw some yucklehead waving a … MILF ’08 poster
in the crowd…before the Palin / Biden debate !
Whatta Country !!!
Fly, are still holding clne? Would you be a buyer if in the 11’s?Thanks Fly.
http://www.cafepress.com/cp/moredetails.aspx?showBleed=false&ProductNo=302155738&colorNo=0&pr=F
That’s okay Fly, there not too nutty about Noo Yawk accents out heah, eithah.
I, for example, have completely lost my accent, but I was on line at some bourbon bar function recently and my wife came by to see if I wanted to get dinner, and I said “I’m on line over here (no dropped consonants for me anymore)”
This guy in front of me snaps his head around and says– “You’re from New York!”
I was kind of startled but said…”Um… yeah?”
He goes, “You could be in the middle of the Gobi desert and hear someone on the other side of a sand dune say “on line” instead of “in line” and you KNOW that person is from New York.
Impressive, I’d never noticed myself. But those fuckers are on the lookout for asshat Noo Yawkahs (even those with neutral accents) you can bank on it.
_________
PS — Check out the quote I put up on the last post from the after debate commentary.
___
Very interesting story that Jake. Tell us, do you find people falling asleep when you’re telling stories like that? Any jumped out the window? Any taking to drugs, drink, possible suicide?
UBS cut 2000 jobs and is exiting commodities trading. I guess they got spanked.
Hank Paulson is Lex Luther in disguise.
Ok this is ironic. David Einhorn of Greenlight who made the bet against LEH ABK MBIA is down 16% YTD http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aXI7LyKLDL9k&refer=home
Seriously what were his other positions. Bets against LEH ABK MBIA should have made his entire trading year.
Einhorn owned a shitload of HLX.
He, like most hedge fund managers, got caught leaning long commodities.
I am fairly convinced that 75% of all hedge funds will close this year, effectively making way for “The Fly” to fill the vacuum.
Alpha,
You’d think Lex Luther could think up a better disguise.
Sarah was not the train wreck I expected tonight.
Bravo!
She was merely egregious.
Even Louis Bacon, the king of hedge funds has lost money this year. That’s incredible because Louis never loses money.
Bought i bought some BHP below $ Aussie30 today on the fly (pun intended).
In fact I also put on another position where I went long BHP and short gold down here and it’s actually got a positive carry 🙂
That’s the beauty of it, Anton. Hiding in plain sight, Lex Luthor is.
___________
I find it funny & sad at the same that everybody is all praising Palin for not fucking up. It’s very easy to do well when expectations are so low.
Personally, still can’t get over all her folksy ways, regardless of whether it’s natural or not.
I did enjoy all the camera shots from behind the podiums, though. She wore that skirt well, nice & tight.
Wall street is the new “data storage”???
Arabic translation: Al Qaeda = data storage
The nine most terrifying words in the English language are, ‘I’m from Wall Street and I’m here to help.’
Before the debate: I thought Palin wouldn’t make a good dog walker.
After the debate: I think Palin could be a decent small-town mayor.
Get back to happier times:
http://www.google.com/search2001.html
Oh wait, the Dow dropped 20% in September 2001!
wlt insider buys 1.3 m at 39 and pxp ceo buys a shitload.
Fannie and Freddie are fine. You republicans worry too much.
No they aren’t because it’s Bush’s fault
Leveraged Beta Does Not Equal Alpha
Since I was out of the country until late yesterday afternoon, I’m not up to speed on the fine points of the news or the nuances of the market action. But I don’t think that the fine details really matter much. My expectation is that even if the legislation passes, after a relief rally the market will head lower once again, and potentially violently.
Congress Can’t Veto a Recession
My reason for saying so: The intensity of the credit crisis has distracted folks from the economic crisis, in the form of the brutal recession we are destined to experience. The legislation — should it pass in whatever form — is not going to change that fact, and when folks realize that, it could easily create a good deal of angst.
Turning to the bailout itself, I continue to be against the idea, especially as proposed. As I noted before my trip, I thought that John Paulson’s plan was better than Hank Paulson’s plan. But I’m not wild about any plan. I would prefer to see the problems handled ad hoc, as they have been. I think that for the long-term good of the country, no grand bailout plan will serve us better. (That said, I think the passage of a plan will create opportunities for shortsellers.)
I especially don’t like the tactics of bailout proponents. They say that if this bill doesn’t pass, we will experience turmoil and chaos — the implication being that if the bill does pass, we won’t have trouble. That is an absurdity, brought to you by the folks who maintained that the problem was just subprime, contained, etc. — and who still do not understand the environment. The truth is, turmoil and chaos were preordained once the credit/real-estate bubble was allowed to go on for so long.
Aye, Aye, Captain Morgan
Of course, a lot of the nouveau “economic patriots” in Congress see this bill as a chance to do what they do best — i.e., throw some pork around. It has dozens of tax breaks for such important things as wooden arrows, stock-car racetrack owners, Virgin Islands rum makers, etc. Which is not to say that this is widespread, but I suspect that there’s more posturing and greasing of palms than there is real genuine concern and understanding about what lies ahead.
Having said that, this phase of the financial crisis is getting later in the day. Maybe we’re two-thirds or more through it. The next crisis, as just noted, will be the economy. During the expansion (as I explained in my book), the economy wasn’t that strong, ex the real-estate bubble. Now, given the contraction in credit, it will weaken dramatically, with yesterday’s ISM number being a vivid example.
Many large European financial institutions are also in trouble (with new casualties popping up regularly), and they are seeking varying degrees of bailouts. Several — Fortis, Dexia, and Hypo Real Estate — fessed up while I was over there. So, this financial crisis is a global one, and the recession will be as well — because, in my opinion, the whole notion of U.S. problems being decoupled from everything else is fallacious. In addition, nothing can easily be decoupled from the financial system.
Also in the misconception department, folks have heralded Warren Buffett’s investment in GE (similar to the one he made in Goldman Sachs) as something akin to a vote of confidence. In fact, it’s actually quite the opposite. What he’s doing is making the most senior equity investment that he can, and getting paid quite a large coupon to do so, with call options thrown in. Buying the common would be a vote of confidence. This is an investment you make when you’re still worried about lots of damage yet to play out.
Turning to the action, last night the futures were weak as soon as the Senate passed the bill. As to why they sold off, perhaps that’s because they’d rallied in anticipation of it. (Volatility is such that trying to read much into the market action is sort of futile.) In any case, stocks were quite weak in the early going, and by midday the averages were down about 3%. A small bounce ensued, but it didn’t last long. The market slid again and closed on the lows, with the averages lower by 4% plus or minus, depending on which you looked at.
Malfunctioning Crash-o-Meter
Today was a very ugly day, with the rout being pretty much across the board. A lot of people seem to think that because of the size of the break on Monday, that was the crash, and anything that takes the market back to those levels is a successful test. I would argue that while Monday might have been a crash-like event, the real crash that I have long thought was inevitable is still in front of us. Too many people for too long have operated on mistaken assumptions about what markets can do — not least of which being (as a friend noted) that too many operators have confused leveraged beta with alpha. I think that when we look back, we’ll find out that error was made repeatedly, in enormous size, all around the globe.
Away from stocks, the dollar was on a rip to the upside, in continuation of the rally that began a couple days ago. I think that we will continue to see a battle of wits between unarmed opponents — that being the dollar and the euro — as people get overly depressed or overly excited about developments here and in euro land. But both currencies have vulnerabilities, as do many other.
Which leads me to the metals. Gold has of course seen wide swings. Some days, it’s the strongest currency on the planet; while others, like today, gold gets slaughtered just because the dollar is strong. In any case, all the outside markets saw lots of motion. By day’s end, silver had dropped almost 15%. Gold was down about 5%. (I bought some physical gold today. I will probably buy some gold and silver futures in the next couple days, to trade.) The dollar was quite strong, especially vs., the euro. Treasurys were modestly higher. Oil finished down about $5.
Thanks Juice 🙂
I was VERY disappointed in the debates. I only watched to see Sarah do a Tina Fey, doing a Sarah Palin, imitation.
Egregious that she wasn’t that bad.
Stolen from another blogs comments:
======================
“Gentlemen, I have had men watching you for a long time, and I am convinced that you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country. When you won, you divided the profits amongst you, and when you lost, you charged it to the bank. You tell me that if I take the deposits from the bank and annul its charter, I shall ruin ten thousand families. That may be true, gentlemen, but that is your sin! Should I let you go on, you will ruin fifty thousand families, and that would be my sin! You are a den of vipers and thieves. I intend to rout you out, and by the eternal God, I will rout you out.”
Andrew Jackson
to a delegation of bankers – 1832
The last president to eliminate the Debt of the USA.
I’ve been reading this blog for awhile now. Talk about group think. Is there anyone who thinks the market is going up and will be higher in a years time. Every single person I speak to is bearish and thinks we’re heading in the toilet. In fact bulls of the indexes are treated like lepers.
Here’s what I reckon. They bears could be right, but this would have to be one of the few times in history when overwhelming consensus is right.
It helps to view bear markets as upside down bull markets. Complete greed makes the end of a bull market and total fear marks the end of the bear market.
We are now around 25% from the top. trade how you like but this bear state and total fear makes me think we aren’t to far from the bottom.
C was on of the stocks that led this thing down. C actualy rose a little from the end of august to the beg oct…. (all of september) which was supposed to be a crash month.
Dunno, I am not buying stocks for the long term, but I won’t be going naked short for any length of time. The rise of course may be led by another group than last time.
that was me.
it was me
Before the debate: I thought Palin wouldn’t make a good dog walker.
After the debate: I think Palin could be a decent small-town mayor.
I had similar thoughts about Plugs, Ottnot…
Before the debate: I wasn’t sure Biden could make a good Mouth of Sauron in the Newport, Delaware Halloween Parade.
After the debate: I thought Biden would have made an excellent Mouth of Sauron stunt double in Peter Jackson’s third Lord of the Rings production.
________
Nancy,
That’s the smartest thing I’ve ever heard from you.
I think we see a short to intermediate term bottom at 1060 or so. Maybe even today.
_________
Barney f-f-f-FuckFace, gets fisted by O’Reilly. Very Funny Manly Love Shit:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrfPMa3lONU
Hey Gunners are you around? I was looking through an old watchlist and iStar Financial Inc came up. Any thoughts on it now; I know you liked it a while back. Seems like a nice low risk gamble in the REIT space.
Thanks jake. That’s me. Knew I could get you to talk to me again.
Let’s all squeeze one out right now.
Time to buy bitches!!!
That was me, Jake. See I knew I would get you to talk to mio…. one way or another.
Hope y’all booked your C profits!
Nice little twist, eh? I was deciding to buy one of the banks yesterday, the choice was between JPM, WFC, C, and WB. Imagine what one I could have picked? LOL
Juice, SHUT THE FUCK UP!
Just post a COMMENT AND LINK rather than 1000 column-inches of blather. Like THIS:
Palin at debate
http://WWW.Titshangtotheknees.org/
If we are interested we can read the link!
Long 1000 AAPL @ 104.52
FuckBailouts —>> Fuck off
You are not the contents of your wallet
When is The House going to vote?
And that was fast. Out of appl 103.99
AAPL is imploding on volume. WTF?!
Fed says hasn’t reviewed Wells purchase of Wachie.
Is that important?
FuckBailouts, aka, DumbFuck – since you are without a clue, here ya go: you need a subscription, else I would have posted the link.
Today 09:42am
Apple Inc Steve jobs may be having health related issues – Silicon Valley Insider citing blog report
– Note Confirmation is still pending, we have calls are out to the company.
– The blog notes that Steve jobs was suffering various chest pains and moved to the hospital, although the original source is choosing to stay anonymous, however the writer is stated as Henry Blodget -> http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/10/apple-s-steve-jobs-rushed-to-er-after-heart-attack-says-cnn-citizen-journalist
I’m doing insanely great!
Juice, thanks a lot for the A. Jackson quote, very poignant.
That’s my (egregiously) big word for the day…poignant
AAPL long suffers heart attack, rushed to hospital, buys overpriced puts.
AAPL moved 10 pts in seconds 106 to 96
then a pop back.
crazy
Fly,
All you had to do was put all your money into WB at 1.00.
Sip…
Did anyone think it was funny when Sarah referred to me as Joe-Six-Pack?
Forget Wall Street — Iran is the new Al Qaeda. It will take the new president about six months to realize that the only way to turn this economy around is to start bombing the high holy shit out of some country. World War III
kc:
In focus groups, Joe Six Pack tested a lot better than Joe Beer Gut. The campaign decided to go with popularity rather than accuracy.
I’m insanely great!
Juice, you honor my memory.
Now, go be a man and challenge Jake to a duel. 10 paces, make it 5 because I bet neither of you have any skills with a firearm.
Bennet Sedacca
09:23:48 AM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
A Little Credit Market Color
Wachovia (WB) benefits from Wells Fargo (WFC) taking its debt. But on the other hand, WFC blowing out so the gains are mitigated.
Citigroup (C) is getting smashed.
Morgan Stanley (MS) is still in an integer world and shows no improvement.
The other regionals that people are dreaming about getting taken over? No improvement in credit. I am sorry to say but with the exception of a couple of these names, they are not terribly solvent, in my opinion. So we stay away.
And oh yeah, the little ‘Get Shorty” move to get equity prices up for those that are being used as conduits to absorb franchises is working nicely. After all, if you were a merger arb, wouldn’t you like to short WFC right here at 20x? Or Sun-Trust (STI) at 22x.
Well, you can in 2 weeks. And I am sure many will. WB isn’t exactly a box of chocolates.
I switched to 12-packs
You realize they have 2 bullets left: the $700 bil. pack and a rate cut.
After those are done, there’s nothing but clear airspace under this market.
VIX sits above 40 all week, congress come in and passes bill. No way does this mark a bottom, shit’s going to roll over.
Lance Lewis
10:05:00 AM
Position in Gold
Gold Lease Rates
Below is a chart of the 3-month lease rate for gold, which continues to explode, telling us that the physical market is growing tighter and tighter even as the gold futures languish around $850. We’re obviously also reading stories in the newspaper everyday about heavy physical demand for gold too. Even today, the Financial Times has another story: here.
The only other time I have seen a wild divergence like this between the physical market and the futures market was leading up to the Washington Agreement that was signed at the September 1999 G7 meeting in Washington, where the G7 central banks agreed to restrict their gold sales at what was then the bottom of a 20 year bear market in gold around $250.
During that period gold fell from $300 to $250 over a 2-month period while lease rates rose every day as the central banks began restricting the supply of gold that they were willing to lease to shorts because the central banks obviously knew they were about to make this announcement in a few months. Gold would explode about 40 percent the following week after the announcement as shorts scrambled to cover and lease rates would spike from 4% to over 9% on the announcement after having already run up from below 1% to 4% in the months leading up to the announcement.
I wonder… Is it a coincidence that we have another G7 meeting in Washington that begins the weekend of the 10th, just one week away? There’s obviously not going to be another “Washington Agreement” but could a formal devaluation of the dollar lie ahead? I wonder…
Chart
======================
Lance Lewis
09:05:32 AM
Position in Gold
Parabola of Money Printing
The Fed’s balance sheet was released just after the close yesterday, and we can see that it grew a whopping $285 billion for the week ended October 1st, 2008 (or about 19 percent). That brings the year-over-year growth to 42 percent, with nearly all of it having occurred in the past two weeks.
Ladies and Gentlemen, this is printing money on a never before seen scale. Since the Fed’s inception in 1913, it took the Fed some 84 years to grow its balance sheet to over $500 billion. It then took it another 11 years to grow its balance sheet by another $500 billion to over $1 trillion. Now consider that over the past two weeks the Fed has grown its balance sheet an additional $503 billion to $1.5 trillion!!! THAT is a parabola of money printing. Take a look at a chart of the Fed’s balance sheet since 1996. If that is not what a hyperinflation looks like, then I’m a Leprechaun.
Chart
Will this data won’t go unnoticed by the price of gold?
The Feds been toying with this market…reverse repos goad Congress into spending your money instead of theirs. They’ll save this thing when they feel truly motivated to do it.
Brucey–
Don’t even bother responding to that fucknutz (who the fuck is he, anyway?)– your “info” posts are like a mini-PG inside the comments section and are very highly valued.
Ancillary comment:
Fuck Bailouts, why dont’ you make yourself useful and go fuck a bailout?
____________
I don’t think there will be a vote and it might be shot down and it should be, they way it is written.
Leaving this issue to the dipsticks in Washington is a major mistake. I heard this morning the real reason the republicans did not sign onto to it, and it wasn’t because Nancy Drew hurt their feelings. The rescue bill, is more like Santa’s gift list. Our greedy Washington wizards who are facing their own local elections have added some pork barrel issues attached to the damn, bill. In this bill one moron politician wants to fund NASCAR races. Hmmmm, isn’t NASDAQ having a problem. Maybe they will reward the country with racing cars, so we can all drive to the poor house as fast as we can.