I already have gold and oil positions. I am buying coal for three reasons.
In ‘real people’ terms, here are the reasons:
1. It’s a McCain play. Dems loathe coal. For some reason, they think our fucking power plants can operate without it. Should McCain win, coal will be on the dinner plate of every American.
2. Another way to hedge against dollar weakness. The coal story is based upon Asian growth. Like all commodities, coal is priced in dollars. Should those dollars decline in value, the value of coal should increase. Also, despite slowing growth, both India and China have hard ons for ‘the other black gold.’
3. Seasonality. Think winter. Aside from April, coal stocks perform best in October. Last year, most coal stocks booked 10-15% returns in October alone. Going through the numbers of some of our biggest coal companies, they averaged a return of 8% in October, over the last 5 years.
Naturally, the charts suck and the trends are un-Godly. I am early to the sector and will probably have to continue to average down. However, 10 bucks (I never pay out on internet bets, sorry) says I bank coin on these fuckers before October is over and done with.
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Tonight I pack my bags:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXi0–gREZo&feature=related
But Obama will win. Why bet on a play based on McCain winning?
Because old man McCain just might pull it off.
My guess: during crisis, people gravitate towards old fuckers.
I doubt it. Obama has reclaimed the lead over the past week. If this isn’t a crisis, then what is?
hard for Obama to win if oil is $150 by Halloween. Coal could be a sweet hedge at least.
Oh-I’m not Ron Paul btw. I just agree with his sentiments.
But he’s horrible during crisis. Case in point what he did yesterday. What he did when Georgia was attacked. People have been picking up on that.
BTW. Obama is actually a bit of a coal whore. It’s basically the only thing I don’t like about him, but he’s been pretty steadily for it. He just hasn’t been vocal about it. Joe can say whatever he wants. It doesn’t mean dick. Coals not going away anytime soon.
He even ran under the radar pro coal ads in the Kentucky and West Virginia primaries.
And for the record I think Gore is laughable for his rantings the other day. Although I am behind him on what his goal is. His tactics suck.
It won’t matter who wins the election. This winter is going to be a motherfucker.
My guess: during crisis, people gravitate towards old fuckers.
flymeister … er so when you have a losing day we can find you at you grandparents place?
dude, stop making this shit up.
Should McCain win? Are you kidding me? You see him on TV yesterday…the dude looks like death warmed over, with one eye popping out of his head.
McCain has aged as much in this election cycle as Bush has in his 7 yrs in the WH….
Some of you need to read and educate better because some of these opinions are like lame clownfucked CEO’s, man.
They gravitate to where they feel safe. Safe generally means old. But in this case I think McCain’s erratic behavior and Obama’s calm level behavior shows who is safe. Believe it or not I think America may start believing that a black guy with a muslim name is the safer choice. 🙂
But my running mate is young and fresh and has a tasty little moose burger. Excuse me, makes a tasty little moose burger.
Ok, first of all, my grandparents are dead. Don’t feel bad; you will be dead too.
Secondly, I am not voting, because both candidates are idiots.
Yes, that includes “Mr. I didn’t know my pastor was a jackass” too.
I am here to read the tea leaves.
Im looking for a bond screener, for father. Should be a free site, but not necessary.
For the moment we are looking at Mergent.
Any ideas?
TY
McCain’s erratic behavior vis a vis Georgia?
McCain’s??
Jezum, what far left blogs are you relying on for your sole supply of news? The Daily Proletariat?
Better get that sofa flameproofed before November 5th.
__
You are not voting because a vote for a Republican in NYC is a fart in a wind tunnel of doofosity.
__
Jake… Ok yay. Let’s go to war with Russia because they attacked a country that wasn’t exactly innocent in the matter. “We are all Georgians now.”?? WTF…
dont they SHIP coal on boats to CHINA?
DRYS options play pays!
BOTD!
Yea both candidates are jackasses but obama is a real one. The creep is friends with a real live fucking terrorist and then as Flymeister says spends 20 years listening to a racist dickhead and says he didn’t know about it. And then, Hillary gets booted off the primaries for this twerp.
fellas get real.. seriously the fucking country is going to hell in hand basket since I left. it was a good place when i was there for 14 years and now look at it.
vote for McCain. He croaks it in office and then you end up with the good looking chick with a family that come straight out of the Beverly hillbillies.
j-
You and the pathetic country you hail from are dangerously close to being shock and awe’d, son. Watch your tone.
j,
Don’t you have a kangaroo to tie down or something?
Go blow a didgeridoo and throw yourself on the barbie.
Aussie arsehat.
Dude
I’m an American citizen ok. I bought that shit about love of country when i was there. And who are you going to shock and awe?… there’s no fucking people here.
I sold my positions 1 min ago. Back to cash for me.
Bailout has been confirmed!
Set to officially announce this evening.
Should RIMM announce decent shit then tech will rock.
Last comment
Hey Anton, not joke, but is your real name… Cigur…
You must have copped a lot of shit with a name like at school, right?
What happened when we heard about Clinton using the cigar on the intern? there would’ve been a lot of jokes about that, right?
I was wrong yesterday about McCain going to washington being a negative for the bail-out plan. It looks like the threat of him showing up and stealing the show lit a fire under the arse of the Dem’s and galvanized them into putting something together quicker than was expected.
j-
If you think his name is bad, you should see his hair.
Where am I going and why am I in this handbasket?
Hey Anton, not joke, but is your real name… Cigur…
You must have copped a lot of shit with a name like at school, right?
It didn’t go well for the shit talkers, coin-flip-wise.
What happened when we heard about Clinton using the cigar on the intern? there would’ve been a lot of jokes about that, right?
What? They only show Mad Max movies out there?
__
j,
Didn’t think you could be Australian. Everyone I’ve met from there has at least some wit. You’re just an American who couldn’t make it here.
But thanks for leaving the country.
Contractor,
Leave my hair out of this.
Shut up Jake. Anyone from exit 63 off the LIE shouldn’t be throwing shit around dude. show some respect to your betters.
that’s it 3 in the morn here i’m off.
FLY:
can you explain why $$$ is still quite strong?
no Anton (try and be a little creative willya) I’m Australian with US citizenship which was the worst thing i ever did in my life because I have those animals from the IRS to contend with each year.
You know they fucking call you and remind you that it’s time to file. they actually have full time IRS dicks sitting in the Consulates office.
$2 sounds like an opportunity
j,
As I’ve explained to you before, no one cares about your problems.
So go back to telling them to your bartender.
If Obama wins exelon EXC will perform very well over the next 4 years.
(I never pay out on internet bets, sorry)
corus
2 bottles awaiting.
effF politics pikers –
Lets talk your God vs. my God
pick a side, any side
COURIC: Why isn’t it better, Governor Palin, to spend $700 billion helping middle-class families struggling with health care, housing, gas and groceries? … Instead of helping these big financial institutions that played a role in creating this mess?
PALIN: Ultimately, what the bailout does is help those who are concerned about the health care reform that is needed to help shore up the economy– Oh, it’s got to be about job creation too. So health care reform and reducing taxes and reining in spending has got to accompany tax reductions.
Everyone’s been a bit on edge lately. We have a financial crisis/economic disaster on our hands, which results in a political discussion. We know how that goes on message boards. Everyone needs to place their daggers down for a minute and allow intelligent humans (The Fly) to think. I can’t think clearly when you guys are constantly bickering and my mom is yelling at me all day. Gotta run. Mom’s calling me for lunch.
Too late for WM, however.
Donny,
I know you want to roll into OK with a big wad of bills to show the family you done good (“C’mon everybody! Big reunion dinner at the Waffle House and Donny’s payin’!”), but do you think you cashed in just a little early?
It seems the gov’t cheese is just now being loaded on the trucks.
Now I am nervous that I may have been wrong to sell this rally …. because Cramer just said “SELL THIS RALLY!”
yikes!
My policy is “No new witches”
Never mind … Dennis ‘I got this whole thing wrong’ Kneale, is calling for 1000 Dow point rally when the bail passes.
We’re going DOWN.
Watch me fuck these people.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qB-OhTfplYE
Me Grandma lives in garden city a stones throw from Cherry Hill golf course. does that count?
Citi is clawing its way back.
DOWN!!!
HAhahahahahahahahah!!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!!!
LMAO … throw yourself on the barbie, mate.
j, Anton Cigur is the name of the serial killer played by Javier Bardem in the movie No Country for Old Men.
If that’s a real remark from Palin, I wonder what her IQ is, something tells me it isn’t above average, or else she’s somewhat out of touch and unable to express herself clearly. Disappointing.
Palin’s answer to Couric’s question is the most convoluted mish-mash of partisan jibberish I have seen yet in this race. Scary.
Let this rally go for now, and wait…
Things will turn on a thin dime when I set in.
Wait, I take that back.
Karl Marx- We are winning!!!
Boca,
You called it last night. Congress has reached some kind of bailout agreement today. I thought it would come Friday night or Monday after the McCain/Obama meet.
Next time you get the keys to the time machine for the evening, give us a call.
I love listening to women who get bitchy over Palin, quite telling donctha think?
We could have a buy on the rumor and sell on the rumor all in the same day even before the (fact) signatures are wet.
I read that one of the provisions of the bill was to allow some of the “profits” to go to the “poor” so they can get mortgages. Where have I heard this before?
Here comes Acorn.
Anton,
There will be about 100 at grandma’s birthday bash. Fried Okra, Corn Bread, Candied Yams and Deep fried Catfish.
My wife says the Rolex should stay at home on the winder in my bedroom. What do you think?
Here We Go:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5tGWD5WbLrs
BTW, to answer your question … HELL NO I don’t think I cashed in too early. This market is fucked.
Jeffrey Cooper
01:57:42 PM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Frustrations in Bankville
When is the last time you saw MasterCard (MA) DOOOOOWN on a 300 DJIA gainer?
Prolly never.
The market is talking and it is saying that the Bullet may be a BB, i.e. the Bailout Bill may be a bb or worse a peashooter.
That doesn’t mean that the signing won’t get multi-week applause of course.
But the economy is going in the tank and the consumer is dead meat according to the action in MA and Visa (V), methinks that is the tale of the tape.
The same folks who lent millions promiscuously to anyone and their brother won’t lend a dime to their mother now.
Noice.
And Congress can do little to get them to lend to those who need to borrow because well that’s how we got here. Is there a happy medium in Bankville?
Todd Harrison
01:31:50 PM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
The Bar Bill Has Passed. But to Whom?
Equity markets continue their trek higher as the bailout permeates the collective psyche. We’ve spoken about the potential ramifications and unintended consequences of this effort–as well as what would have happen if nothing was done–and offered our humble views on what we need to see included in the plan to protect tax-payers, limit moral hazard and stay true to the foundational elements of democracy.
Some Random Thoughts as we chew through this freaky fray:
* Critical crossroads? I would say so (and I did).
* Equities are the thermometer but credit is the backbone. As some credit derivatives were used as vehicles for short side exposure, they have shown some improvement today.
* However, credit as a whole–as I write this–has deteriorated today as credit investors sense this bill isn’t a panacea for the credit crisis.
* I don’t profess to know how long this bounce will last (or how far it will go) but I will offer that if credit doesn’t uptick appreciably, equities are extremely vulnerable.
* The oddest things on my screen today? The dollar, which is up 35 bips against a basket of currencies, and gold (-$16), which would seemingly benefit from the mere specter of hyperinflation.
* Washington Mutual (WM) (-20%) remains a problem, child. So does Merrill Lynch (MER), which can’t seem to find a bid despite the stormy green seas.
* On the other side of that ride–and we always strive to see both sides–General Electric (GE) messed the bed this morning and the stock is 4% higher. Reaction to news is always more important than the news itself.
* Is anyone else looking forward to this week’s edition of the Friday Night Faceplant?
* In two quick housekeeping items, please remember to lock your spot to the Festivus trot (Thursday December 4th) and, if you’re comfy, take ten seconds to help us spread word of the Minyanville mission by clicking here and clicking on the up arrow).
I’m juggling more balls than a teenage Larry Bird. Lemme hop, Minyans, and remember to breath.
Boca,
I saw the Palin interview last night. Politics aside, I thought it was a bit scary when she fell for the “Great Depression” question from Couric, and said something to the effect of “if the bill does not pass there could/would be another Great Depression”, rather than some forward looking calming statement. Of course that was the quote that was used on the teaser to get the viewers to tune in. (Of course I fell for it, and tuned in.)
Anton, it was just an informed guess based on a previous work-life centering around the intricacies of tax law, the IRS, and thinking up circuitous ways around the attempts of the government to take away clients’ money. Congress has a certain pattern to its actions.
Put it this way, even though I still have some GLD and SLV hedge, I am otherwise long and am becoming slightly bullish.
remember, don’t take stock advice from a Boca housewife or you may loose dinero.
Donny- What no cheese grits and greens? They are the best.
Shut up Jake. Anyone from exit 63 off the LIE shouldn’t be throwing shit around dude. show some respect to your betters.
WTF is “Exit 63?” Commack?
And I always show respect for my “betters,” I’m very respectful in that regard.
As for dimtwist ex-pats who can’t spot easy cultural references?
Not so much.
Anyone popping Skiffles here?
Yum! Yum! Flyyyyyyy!
_____
Bruce–
Never mind … Dennis ‘I got this whole thing wrong’ Kneale, is calling for 1000 Dow point rally when the bail passes.
Whew! Maybe Don Harrold will move to Kneale now?
the Bull, FYI I am politely referred to as “beezy-like” or “nervous” around here rather than the impolite term bitchy. Just sayin.
I wanted to like her, I really did, seeing as I looked quite a bit like her (ok years ago) minus the beehive, and I’m Christian, etc. But, I have to deal with the facts. It would be irresponsible of me to vote for a ticket in which a person who might take over the Presidency (given McCain’s health) really hasn’t spent much time out of the United States. We’ll see.
Boca,
One thing you will never see is a transcript of an Obama “oh, uh, um, ah” filled answer. He is edited in transcript, and the Reps are not. You have to go to the audio for the real thing. The double standard is appalling.
Nevertheless, youtube does not lie, and the evidence is out there.
Need I say it?
POOF !
Your rally is fading, away.
Donny,
Once again, your reasoning is airtight. I’m holding my UYG and such for now because “I just don’t know when to quit.”
Congrats on the dinner plans. I loves me some fried okra and cornbread. Don’t forget the sweet tea.
And, yes, I think your wife is right about the Rolex. The line between doing well and “putting on airs” is to be respected below the Mason Dixon.
Happy BD to Grandma.
Jake…you’re a sharp guy.
Do you really see SKF breaking above, say, 120?
If so, do we have to wait for all the bailout crap and the impending rate cut before we get upward movement?
Share your thoughts…thanks!
Thanks for sharing that juice.
The price action right now is horrendous.
Would not suprise me to finish in the red today.
Or up 500.
Buckle up beatches.
Whew! Maybe Don Harrold will move to Kneale now?
Finally, I can go out bowling again.
Looks at those drops in FNM and FRE. Makes me feel good that I never covered my shorts in either.
Another thing — judgment is a critical factor, far more critical than “trips outside the U.S.”
Be sure you look at the records of all four candidates and ask yourself “Do I trust these peoples’ judgment?”
For my part, I’d put Palin’s gutsy backing down of her own state party and Big Oil, while at the same time securing a better deal for her state on the Gas pipeline ahead of anything any of those other three have done in their careers, save perhaps McCain’s surviving a POW camp.
Of course, she kind of looks like my wife too. lol.
Aside: We already have our Halloween party costumes picked out. I am going as the bullet pierced polar bear.
_
__
Trotsky-
End stage is coming! Remember also you said you would grow the Fu Manchu when late stage financial institutions were effectively nationalized with help from MSM and a slumbering populace.
Grow it on, you Confucius-looking mofo
Also, look out behind you, there’s a guy with an ice p-
I’d just like to point out that both Obama and McCain are for “clean” coal. The coal industry is running ads (I’ve heard ’em during Limbaugh) on the radio basically telling people to just go vote, because whomever they vote for will end up helping coal.
As a side note, there is a banner ad below me on this IBC page for a BBW Romance website. Odd, no?
The bill is old news now. Let’s talk earnings. Maybe not.
Ex-SKF — the only thing I can say is I liked the bank action this morning.
Even with all this promise in the air, the best the banks could do was say “Meh?”
And my Skiffles is back up five points already…
I report, you decide.
__
Misogynistic, bitchy comments from a poster named “bull.”
Quite telling, no?
Watch it. This motherfuckin’ train can rollover this BULLSHIT rally:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AmFM8MepDjE
Okay, I don’t know if this is like “free association” or like, what…
_____________
Trotsky-
End stage is coming! Remember also you said you would grow the Fu Manchu when late stage financial institutions were effectively nationalized with help from MSM and a slumbering populace.
Grow it on, you Confucius-looking mofo.
______________
… But that is some FUNNY shit! ROFL!
________
Check those intra-day charts for FNM and FRE. Massive swan dives with “V” bottom bounce. Craziness.
Donny — you an OU fan or a Viking fan?
OU looks strong this year (again).
Some program. Some fan base.
__
Donny … that guy Adrian reminds me of Jim Brown.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xGhZJZKYa0
Sooner bred, Sooner dead, Oklahoma, OKU!!!
for any scalpers, SP Futures are following crude for the past few days.
McCain AIN’T gonna win. Get your head out of your ass son. Here in the REAL ‘merica, we know twas the Republicans who ran our fucking country into the ground. And every Republican I know, including the one I look at in the mirror every morning, is going to walk into that booth and VOTE … PHUCK YOU REPUBLICANS.
Jake,
I prefer to call it “stream of class consciousness”.
Now drop the remotes and rise up, bitches!
I gave the Vikings two wins a year for the past seven years.
PharmPhucker
I know where you live and nobody crosses me.
Oops … drats – the dreaded long tail seems to making an appearance
Sold all my uyg. Too crazy.
When the Going Gets Tough, The Tough Confiscate Gold
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/gold-ABX-NEM-xau-GG-phlx/index/a/19173
Hummmm, how did the cookie jar feel when the lid slammed shut?????lol
http://www.gata.org/node/6489
The U.S. Mint has suspended sales of American eagle gold coins and is refusing orders from dealers, two coin and bullion dealers confirmed Thursday.
No more gold for you.
I’ve got about as much chance as going on TV when this market crashes as i did 79 years ago…
…no matter wat that tool Biden says!
When did John Kruk become a CNBC talking head?
I swear I saw FDR on TV back in ’29. He was on right before Howdy Doody and an NBC show entititled “Don’t fear Hitler, he is a friend to all.”
“Fannie Mae, the nation’s biggest underwriter of home mortgages, has been under increasing pressure from the Clinton Administration to expand mortgage loans among low and moderate income people and felt pressure from stock holders to maintain its phenomenal growth in profits.”
-excerpt from a Sept 30th 1999 column of DeepEZ’s sacred New York Times
…Ok, ok you got me…Just don’t let it come back to hurt my boy Obammy
“In moving, even tentatively, into this new area of lending, Fannie Mae is taking on significantly more risk, which may not pose any difficulties during flush economic times. But the government-subsidized corporation may run into trouble in an economic downturn, prompting a government rescue similar to that of the savings and loan industry in the 1980’s.”
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C0DE7DB153EF933A0575AC0A96F958260&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=1
“Fannie Mae, the nation’s biggest underwriter of home mortgages, has been under increasing pressure from the Clinton Administration to expand mortgage loans among low and moderate income people and felt pressure from stock holders to maintain its phenomenal growth in profits.”
– excerpt from an article published in DeepEZ’s sacred New York Times -SEPT 30, 1999