iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
22,010 Blog Posts

Charts Are for Losers

So many of you losers were in love with [[ELN]], because it had a ‘dreamy’ chart. See where it got you, fuckface?

Making financial decisions based upon charts is equal to marrying a woman solely on her looks. For those of you who have been taken for “half,” you know that’s a bad idea. Sure, she may be nice to look at for awhile. However, eventually, she gets old, turns bitter, then takes you for “half.”

Investigate the companies you are buying, goat lovers.

Personally, I admit taking a “gander” at charts, mainly to view past history. I like to see how a stock reacts to good or bad earnings. This way, I know what to expect.

Every time I buy a stock, I write down the expected return and ‘worst case scenario.” It is important to understand your stress levels and how much risk you can incur, on a single or series of trades.

Enough of that.

Thus far, I’m quite pleased to see the unemployment rate up to 5.7%. Rick Santelli went on quite a tangent this morning, when he exploded and chastised the delusional CNBC panel for trying to paint the pig gold.

Look, a loss of jobs is a loss of jobs. It’s not a little bit good. It’s all bad.

Jobs are the life-line to the economy. Remember, our government has socially engineered us to spend all of our savings, in order to support bridges that go to nowhere. However, their plan gets a little rattled when, all of a sudden, we are without jobs. This will panic them.

Expect to see more stimulus checks, going out to idiots with plasmas on their brain.

The government sending out money to people, so that they can buy shit from [[BBY]], so that BBY can pay the government taxes, is equal to [[MER]] financing the sale of their CDO’s to Lonestar.

I’m just saying.

With my money, I want to buy [[FXP]] here on the dip. Wait for [[CHL]] to roll over, then jump on it. And, I want to sell short [[TCB]]. In my opinion, fair value is around $10, or less.

Oh, I also like short [[VMC]].

NOTE: My [[CLNE]] looks great here.

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60 comments

  1. j

    Read them upside down, Fly. They always turn out right that way.

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  2. Topper Harley

    Where is the new tabbed blogger?

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  3. CubsRock

    What the [email protected]#$ is going on with cattle futures? Guess I better head to Sams Club and stock up on meat.

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  4. BUSTER

    j, there is a musical discipline that does just that – read musical charts upside down.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retrograde_inversion

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  5. Woodshedder

    Fuck you, plutonium peenie.

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  6. Jakegint

    Cubs… check this out…

    I knew Litchfield was a pricey area, but this is getting a bit ridiculous.

    __

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  7. Jakegint

    Woodie, are you talking to your penis again?

    __

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  8. Juice

    Speaking of charts: WBD is breaking down. Fly, is it a short from your vantage point?

    Gramps .. from what I see, CLNE is nearing important downtrend resistance at 14. A close over that & then basing above the downtrend line would be nice. If you looking at the hourly, it needs to hold 13.30 to continue is intraday uptrend.

    Perhaps the Shed made of Wood could weigh in (or other closet chartists – yeah Fly, I’m talking to yous) or make it his chart du jour.

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  9. KC Trader

    You can always see the “Inside Activity” in the charts. 😉

    Many have become rich in reading the tape.

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  10. Donny

    Larry “Asshat” Kudlow, just admitted we’re in a “mild” recession.

    BTW, Only fuckfaces buy and hold emerging markets, believing the decoupling theory. Everything is going in to the shit hole. Everything!

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  11. Woodshedder

    Jake, I was talking to the fly. Notice, no capitals.

    Its not the chart that made ELN a time bomb, its the industry.

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  12. The Fly

    WBD is russian. Stay away from the Soviets.

    Funny shit going on there.

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  13. CubsRock

    Just judging by the VIX and the way my XLF puts are acting, I’d say we are headed higher for a while. Seems like there is no fear at all.

    Nice JakeGint, I was a lil hesitant to click on your link though 😛

    Good post as usual Fly.

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  14. jeff

    Communism – War on Drugs – War on Terror – Fake Alien Attack – Despotism

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  15. calvino

    ARe you referring Morgan downgrading Soviet debt?

    Cubs.. it’s an old story that just took time to play out.. The stockyards sent animals to slaughter this spring, when the feed prices would not break. That supply is now finished. You will be paying much more for beef, port and fowl in the future.

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  16. Juice

    {sarc on}

    No way I’m gonna short CHL with Guy Adami recommending it. No way Jose! Guy is the SHIT.

    {sarc off}

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  17. Nardsbrau

    Kudlow apologized for not taking a closer look at the GDP report before he aired yesterday and concluded, upon further analysis, that the real GDP rate was not 1.9% but rather MINUS 1%.

    He’s now “concerned”.

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  18. boca

    I like charts as much as the next person, they can provide a lot of information. But I do wonder why sometimes it seems technical analysis of the past overrides common sense decisions about today and the future (not talking about anyone at IBC). I prefer to have common sense and research confirm the conclusions from the chart. Just my preference I suppose, but just in case I’ve alienated some die-hard TA specialist, I’ll put my flame-proof suit on.

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  19. Granpa

    Thanks Juice.
    Nice call on CVS.

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  20. Conspiracy Central

    Jeff works for me. He’s a tireless supporter of my NWO themes, such as the NWO itself, the staged alien invasion, Vigilante Programming, Zionistas, Illuminati, the destroyer comet, 2012 endings, etc.

    Carry on, Jeff.

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  21. TraderCaddy

    Who needs charts? I just wait for the guy on Fast Money with the Devil’s beard and pony tail tell me what to do and then I do the opposite. It’s a Costanza of the Devil Bearded guy.

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  22. boca

    Actually I agree with TC, Pete N is often a good contrary indicator for me too.

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  23. Sierra Water

    Take a look at going short APD.

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  24. chivasontherocks
    chivasontherocks

    this is interesting.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aDdrpcl91lco

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  25. the mexican

    As I told you before, I have been laughing about your charts and Atari trading style. This is seriuos shit, you cannot rely on fucking dots and lines, you need to understand stock prices follow a random walk. If you want to trade go ahead, focus on fundamentals, corporate events, news and so on. I will put it this way, if you want to trade and you have no education, you use Technical analysis. Plain and simple.

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  26. BUSTER

    NSFW

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  27. MV - Freddie Krueger
    MV - Freddie Krueger

    Ryan Krueger

    11:06:46 AM

    No positions in stocks mentioned.

    Headwinds and Tailwinds
    Exxon-Mobil (XOM) is a name I’ve never been involved with from the long side despite being a secular bull on Energy for several years. I believe the law of large numbers is an even stronger headwind in any sector, that I’d simply rather avoid. Consider that 12 months ago a barrel of crude cost 59% less, yet a share of XOM 6% more – than each do today.

    While chewing on its numbers last night one of the Jumbo Shrimp Indicators spoke to me, one of my favorite clues when looking for turning points.

    I noticed the average number of Wall Street analysts now covering S&P 500 Energy stocks is 22 per company.

    The formerly far-too-crowded Financials, by comparison? 14.

    I’ve often found simple indicators to be the most powerful because they fake out most people who think they cannot be that simple.

    My partner and I have begun slowly turning bullish on niche Financials for the first time in six years.

    There’s no magic formula to determining when selling becomes exhausted but here’s a number to know. I counted the largest 15 banks as of July 15 (so that’s not including any of those that have disappeared or eroded to small caps), and in the prior 12 months totaled their losses. Not write-downs or fancy accounting but rather the simple decline in stock price.

    $1.1 trillion dollars were erased in 12 months among shares of the biggest and “best?” still left standing. I don’t own a single share in any one of them, but I’m starting to work around the edges. The law of large numbers and awful decisions they often inspire have been painfully reduced and along with them perhaps created a few tailwinds for a change. Not for the demand for the sector’s products just yet, but maybe for some of their shares.

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  28. the mexican

    Fly,
    Write something funny using your handwriting on Woodshedder’s tab. LOL

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  29. Woodshedder

    Mexican- it has been proven, over and over and over, that stocks do not, I repeat, do not follow a random walk.

    Stocks are not subject to a normal distribution.

    There are many fat tails.

    You are simply promoting falsehoods.

    It is fine if you want to trade on fundamentals, and hold stocks for months. That is one way to do it. However, I would appreciate if you would not promote your opinions as facts.

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  30. Woodshedder

    Mexican, your continued insistance that traders who use technical analysis have no education is another falsehood, and one obviously designed to stir up some emotional arguments, rather than factual ones. This is par for the course for you, as you have no facts, only emotions.

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  31. BUSTER

    Advantage Shed. Mexican has the serve.

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  32. j

    anyone know what’s going on with MS. I bought that piece of shit in the low 30’s and hate the fucker. Dunno if any of you other guys feel this way, but sometimes even if your right and hate the stock so much you don’t even like making a profit on it. It’s just less bad than losing.

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  33. Nihilist Investor
    Nihilist Investor

    The only thing interesting about Thain buying 500,000 shares of MER is that he did it at the below market, fund raising round of $22.50.

    It’s almost a joke that management cuts themselves in on a way below market round. But, the company exists for the benefit of senior management, no?

    It’s not like this clown took a nibble in a downtrending market. Just a wimpy, way to feign support for the company. I would not be surprised to see him dump it in the not too distant future.

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  34. chivasontherocks
    chivasontherocks

    mexican, whether ta works or not, and i think it does, wood has great track record. yes i know, i don’t have a high school diploma.

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  35. Topper Harley

    Cramer at the beginning of the year –

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/58745-jim-cramer-s-10-predictions-for-2008

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  36. Woodshedder

    Thanks Chivas and Buster.

    Mexican, feel free to check my Covestor account, which has all my trades verifed, every single one of which was bought based solely and completely on TA. As of today, I have better than an 80% win rate.

    I might add the account sits today at a new YTD high. I will publish the exact statistics after today’s close.

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  37. the mexican

    Wood,
    It is a Fact, stock prices follow a random walk.
    I will prove it today, when all patterns fail at the close.
    You can play poker or space invaders and have a 80% succesful rate. I just dont like the approach, sorry men, I wont post anything else about this, Peace bro.

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  38. Jakegint

    The government sending out money to people, so that they can buy shit from (BBY: 39.43 -0.73%), so that BBY can pay the government taxes, is equal to (MER: 26.38 0.00%) financing the sale of their CDO’s to Lonestar.

    Correct as usual.

    Did you hear the Messiah’s latest “big idea?” Send out $1,000 checks to the masses, this time “for gas money.”

    And get this, it’ll all be paid for by “windfall profits” taxes on the nasty, mean, evil (insert pejorative of your choice here) Big Earl Companies.

    This is either economic ineptitude/ignorance of the highest order or simple deceit.

    The Dems don’t want to drill, but they’ll pay for that artificial constraint on supply by taking money from the one group that could increase supply.

    The most bitter irony is that that same group, being a corporation, will simply pass the tax right back to — you guessed it! The same schmucks who’re getting the $1,000 bribe , er… “stimulus payment.”

    It’s like a giant “Fuck you, pay me” Merry-Go-Round!

    __

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  39. buylo

    Fly, re Market watch, the up-grade is great, now I just have to find out what that black line means. Anyways, why would you leave out the S&P 500 and DJ indicator? Millions of folks swear by them! And why the 15 minute delay? Billions of $ are made or lost in 15 minutes! Now I got to watch CNBC for a play by play on the indexes which are vital to me to continue loosing money.

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  40. Woodshedder

    Mexican, your intellect is obviously not developed enough for a good debate.

    That’s too bad.

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  41. Jakegint

    Cubs,

    No worries, I don’t have as much truck with these “fruit & vegetable shooter” websites as you may have.

    _

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  42. TraderCaddy

    Smart cars are for Euro weenies.
    Jake- Comrade Obama has it right. Now we should have a tax on all corporations in the S&P 500 and send a $1000 check from each one of those greedy corporate pigs and send it to us taxpayers. Then, I won’t have to work.
    Oh, I forgot Comrade when is the Bund meeting?

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  43. lol

    The phrase “windfall profit tax” makes me think of a marathon with some burly guys hiding behind the bushes, every few miles. Their job is to “flying tackle” the guys in front (the “front runners” if you will), and wrestle them to the ground. This makes the race more fun and enjoyable for the fat slobs in the back. “Sorry skinny, you too good at thisa marathon business, find a new hobby, capishe?”

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  44. Woodshedder

    Mexican, not liking an approach is fine. I don’t like your approach.

    However, you do not see me saying that fundamental analysis doesn’t work, or that is used by people with no education.

    In other words, it took you four or five comments to distill the essence of your argument, which was you didn’t like the TA approach.

    The downside of your first couple of comments is that they propagated lies. IMO, that fact weakens any other words that follow those first couple of comments.

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  45. SatanicChihuahua
    SatanicChihuahua

    Windfall profits taxes are a terrible idea. Talk about a slippery slope. Why limit it to evil oil companies? Fertilizer companies are banking egregious coin, why not slap a windfall tax on them? And iron ore miners? And coal is near all time high prices, let’s tax those coal fuckers and create an incentive to produce less coal? And steel?

    And Alex Rodriguez makes way too much, tax him? And investment bankers? And corporate lawayer? And Stevie Cohen? And George Soros? And “the Fly”?

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  46. KC Trader

    When did the Fly give the mexican a day off from taking care of his yard?

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  47. KC Trader

    When I think of the difference between and trader and an investor, I always remember this quote.

    “Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”

    ~Warren Buffett

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  48. Scum Bucket Bitchez
    Scum Bucket Bitchez

    This post caused plutonium woody to shoot a red candlestick right through his moving average, sending his BP to the moon. LOL

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  49. Granpa

    Jake, “This is either economic ineptitude/ignorance of the highest order or simple deceit.”, how about ‘All of the Above’.

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  50. Woodshedder

    lol @ Scum…

    I’m taking my kiddos to the pool to cool off a bit…

    My BP is managed fine, thanks to Atenolol…

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  51. Granpa

    SatanicChihuahua, you forgot the fuckers in Congress.They work half the year and do just about nothing good. That sounds like a windfall too.

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  52. Jakegint

    Sierra,

    Nice call on APD. Looks like one of those bank stocks about two months back.

    Cue the Tom Petty…

    _

    Update: I just looked at the fibs, and we’re headed into a double strong (ie, short term (50%) and long term (38%)) fib line here at about $92.55.

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see it bounce there, and even return back to the short term 38% fib at around $96.00.

    Of course if it breaks 92.50, it’s “party hat time.”

    _

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  53. CubsRock

    Grab some PACW it’s going to jump if we turn this ship around.

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  54. TraderCaddy

    One thing for sure. If I ever bought a smart car I would get as much life insurance and bodily injury coverage possible because in the event of an accident you would be crushed like a sardine in a sardine can.

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  55. bpoe

    Mexican:

    The Fly has just showed how to use a chart. As in anything you have to think outside the book readers and the herd. [To add value]. Like I said [It is an ART] The FLY should sell his Artwork. It is also an ART to read Fundamental Analysis. Every little guy on wall street reads the same bullshit. That makes it old news. How do you as a Fundamental Analysis figure out the facts better than millions of suckers. I could use a hot tip!!

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  56. j

    mexican does have a point and even the Flymeister says he doesn’t use charts but he sort of does in the sense that he is trend following and that’s just price representation by other means..like having a chart in your head instead looking at it on a screen.

    As for random walk though that’s bullshit. We have trends and trends are not random walks. Nearly everyone has trouble following trends which is why they lose money.

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  57. Aris

    CLNE and FSYS just got ‘cramered’.

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  58. davboz

    Dork….

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