The market is trying to bounce here; but the fucking banks are not cooperating. Once again, they need a catalyst to sprint higher. You can’t buy them on weakness. Look at [[FED]], [[WB]], [[FMBI]], etc. I can go on and on.
The fact of the matter is, investors are deathly afraid of the banks, especially the regional variety. My shorts in FMBI, [[TCB]], [[PACW]] and [[BBT]] are working just fine.
However, it’s worth noting, non-bank shorts are not doing too well. My positions in [[FXP]], [[REW]], [[TWM]], [[SMN]] and [[CLF]] are clubbing me to sleep. Fuck, just looking at CLF makes me want to go take a nap.
Other banks on my hit list include:
[[WFSL]] (I should not have covered), [[CMA]], [[CYN]], [[SNV]], [[PZN]] (no stock available) and [[EWBC]].On the long side, I like [[RIG]], [[HANS]] and [[RIMM]] for a trade.
NOTE: [[MXB]] is 10 points rich too. I like to bet against the name. However, at the moment, the volume is very thin.
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Yes, banks continue to be debanked, tranfering wealth to ‘fuck the bankers’.
I’ve decided to short the maker of *egregious* $100-500 jeans ( TRLG ), in spite of the fact that it is already *egregiously* shorted to the tune of 60% of the float.
It could be noted that PAAS is up, even as silver is off.
OEH will die from international hotel vacancies, as reported by my traveling acquaintances.
XLF needs a double bottom put in before it goes anywhere, maybe this could be it.
Thanks for WFSL and CYN as original “take a look ats.” Don’t forget UB when you are contemplating the ancient Scottish ukase:
“Eff’n et bahnks en Pahsadena, et’s craaahp”
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One other reminder– Crazy Mr. Methmortgage’s HRB banged it’s head on the downtrending line at $23. I think it’s a nice time to hit it, here.
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Bruce,
Don’t forget GES, still mourning the demise of Anna Nicole of the Many Sizes. It will be many years before “Baby Danielle” is ready for her closeup.
Break of $36, I think is safe. TRLG at $26, a gift.
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Even in a fucked economy HANS rocks!
A company that can produce a beverage that makes you feel that good without crack in it will still sell no matter how bad it gets.
Regarding HRB, wasn’t mr.mortgage’s analysis based on the fact that HRB couldn’t sell Option One to Wilbur? They closed that deal so does that mean HRB doesn’t have exposure anymore?
Trying to pick bottoms has crippled more people than polio. The financial sector is a case in point. I’ve experienced this IRL during the Texas S&L scandal. Some of the most prominent names in the state were selling at huge discounts to book value. Problem was, their book value evaporated and they went to 0. The same is happening today with the national banks and brokerage firms.
Why aren’t BX and FIG good shorts? Not only have they not done a decent deal in a year, but they overpaid for many of the deals done in 2005-2007. Those PIK toggle loans are fucking ticking time bombs. When the loans get in trouble the equity contributed to the deals will likely be impaired or totally wiped out.
FLY, just wondering your take on SMN and DGP? commodities are bouncing today for who knows why, but with oil down and maybe going lower, do you think the commods. will start selling off also? your comments will be appreciated.
COF is the one to short.
What’s in your wallet? Jack shit.
The problem with True Religion is that this country is divided in half — 290 million poor fuckers and maybe 10 million with a sack of gold. Of the 10 million, the top 1 million control half of that stash.
So $600 jeans will always be cheap to the ultra-rich. Haven’t you heard — yacht sales are booming these days (not a joke at all — go look it up). Shorting stocks that support the ultra-rich lifestyle is a tough fight. Better to stick with 2nd tier retailers and stuff like Starbucks where average joe shops.
COF should be cut in half soon. They’re going to end up with write-offs up the wazoo. Meanwhile — Congress is going to pork ’em in the ass with some new found anti-usury laws to gain votes.
Jake, I’m still short GES, on your rec. Didn’t add today. I think bulls will give it the old collage {sik] try over the next couple weeks, with help from those trying to get oil down.
Sir D, you may be right on TRLG, but this one is personal. Hopefully it doesn’t take me back to the woodshedder. Although I’ve heard that even the uber wealthy are cutting back some.
I like the COF, still.
Regarding HRB, wasn’t mr.mortgage’s analysis based on the fact that HRB couldn’t sell Option One to Wilbur? They closed that deal so does that mean HRB doesn’t have exposure anymore?
I believe this question was asked (and answered last week), but I’ll repeat. Apparently, HRB still has exposure to much of the Alt-A loans they egregiously distributed at the “height” circa 2006. These remain as “off balance sheet” exposure to this day. This is all from Mr. Mortgage, so I advise checking out his site for more info. My take is largely based on watching the chart action the last couple of weeks. Take warn.
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HRB is retarded.
Move on.
Juice, you still short MA?
It hit my target of $250, so I’m taking 1/3 off the table here. It breaks long term support at $248. We’ll see if LT support holds or if we go to mid-$230’s, next support level.
Early candidate for “Line of the Week” —
COF is the one to short.
What’s in your wallet? Jack shit.
Bravo, sir. (Glad to see you re-purchased your patrimony.)
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So $600 jeans will always be cheap to the ultra-rich. Haven’t you heard — yacht sales are booming these days (not a joke at all — go look it up). Shorting stocks that support the ultra-rich lifestyle is a tough fight. Better to stick with 2nd tier retailers and stuff like Starbucks where average joe shops.
One does not run a competent business off “the ultra rich.” As you mention, there are only so many of them, and you’ll find that most “luxury” purveyors make their coin off the “wanna be” set.
If anyone’s from Dallas, I think they call them “$40,000 millionaires” out there.
The wanna bees will be cutting back on purchases of $600 jeans and platinum wedding ring sets. This is not a growth opportunity.
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HRB is retarded.
Move on.
It’s because it’s “retarded” that I’m short. Whether one should move on or not will be determined very quickly. It has just approached it’s downtrend line for the second time today and been rejected ($22.95 the second time).
If it breaks below $22.68, bludgeon it with three hammers.
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