Listening to the [[LEH]] call, I can tell you that firm is fucked, for quite awhile. Thus far, they’ve raised over 12 billion dollars (2008) in new capital, yet the firm continues to struggle with its balance sheet.
As a result, they have de-leveraged their balance sheet to 22:1. However, it’s worth noting, the graspy voiced moron of a woman on the call suggested they may up their leverage in the future. Their book value, which is a moving target, is now $33. Their hedges did not work, over the past quarter. And, finally, Lehman’s level three assets have not gone down.
To sum things up: LEH was “scared straight” and sold out of a lot of positions, in order to reduce risk. Ironically, their hedges, that are meant to reduce risk, actually increased risk over the last quarter— resulting in retarded losses. The fact that LEH was a monster seller of assets this quarter, means [[MER]], [[MS]] and [[GS]] are just sitting there with their fucking thumbs up their asshats.
With regards to other banks:
[[WM]] has slipped down the sewer pipe. Following “Wamu” is [[FED]], [[PMI]], [[ABK]], [[MBI]], [[RDN]], [[DSL]] and [[UBS]].In general, banks are being walloped today. Stay away.
On the long side, I really like [[RIG]] here. The stock has been beaten up, because fucktards with jelly on their bifocals have been selling it. I like it, up to $155.
Also, I like [[FTK]], [[FXP]], [[SRS]], [[NOV]], [[PCZ]] short [[CHL]], short [[LFC]] and short [[COWN]].
The market looks like shit on a skateboard, rolling down a garbage heap of molded salmon.
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RIG is going nowhere, be patient and buy cheaper.
No.
Gay. Everything is gay and it is pissing me off.
Either I am just not smart enough, or perhaps my mindset is locked, or both, and I cannot win in this tape. No blowouts, just death by 1000 cuts.
I hereby declare today the “Day of Gay” and throw in the gay fricking pink towel.
I am an observer for the rest of the day.
no offense to gays
Or Woodshedder.
Fly,
Must say ive been too chicken to short FED..thinking i can get in cheaper..is it too late to get in on the short side? Thanks
WB very oversold, your bounce could be coming.
Fly, being your a long time holder, I’m surprised your not getting in something like C or even the XLF.
Cubs:
I am still concerned over a Tsunami of displeasure and mayhem mat afflict the banks.
Ed,
FED to sub $10, at least.
And if you want one that’s actually saleable on an uptick today, check FITB.
It’s still hurtling through the trap door, and the rope has not yet jerked it short.
You all are fuckballs. The banks are not in trouble! Buy them….NOW! (Don’t make me get in a bad way. You know what will happen from there.)
I covered ALL my shorts on Lehman (all options); I agree the company is fucked long-term, but in the short-term I wouldn’t be surprised on a bounce. I will wait for bounce, then re-shorted it longer term through common stock.
Ags are RIPPING to the upside after consolidation breakout + upgrades. Coal + steel, you named it…going higher whether market is down 400 or up 100.
I’m going to add my FXP short, and will start a position on shorting the QQQs’.
Mike:
Good moves.
For now, hedge funds would rather short the banks/financials than watch reruns of I Love Lucy. But there’s a massive short covering rally of epic proportions in the financials just waiting to happen.
Staying short the banks when the calendar flips into a new quarter on July 1 could be detrimental to your bullshit brokerage account.
what exactly happened with WM today? that thing blew up (again) fairly suddenly today, but i didn’t see any news around it.
Cubes are entering a very difficult fib area, for both short and intermediate term. They bounced off the short term (from the 3/14/07 low to the 10/30/07 high) 50% fib line this morning ($48.42) and are holding above. Below that, we have the long term (from the 8/11/06 low to the 10/30/07 high) 38.2% fib line (strong) at $47.78, and finally the short term 61.8% fib line (again, strong) at $47.00-ish.
In short, the easy short Cube money has been made, and it may be a bit choppy here until she breaks all the way through $47 to the downside again*. I realize that’s about a buck and half from here, and you may not want to wait, but I would advise “nimbleness” in the near term.
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* I have little doubt the Cubes will see a drop through $47 again, btw.
_
Fly- If it was a graspy voiced woman you were listening to I hate to tell you but you were listening to a 1-900 sex line and not the LEH conference call.
Fly,
You ready to get on the Crack Bus again w. QTWW?
_
Greedy and raspy = “Graspy?”
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WM – 15% of float traded in last 8 or 9 exchange hours. Towel must be pretty thrown in by now, how many funds can want to dump their stock at 1/2 of cash and 1/3 of book? When the housing market 6 months from now may actually be post-bottom?
Maybe folks were disappointed UBS only reit neutral at $7 rather than upgrade on valuation.
Boomer- your hair cut sucks. Now, fuck off.
I’m out of QTWW.
Not worth the headache.
You guys are irritable this morning… if it gets any ghei-er around here I’m gonna start handing around the Midol.
Boca,
I’m in quite the good mood this morning, despite two kids with some mystery ague over the weekend.
My banks (and broker) shorts are seeing to that, as well as my stealthy hard currency plays (ie, Yukon Cornelius picks). Anyone else have GG? That stock is the stealthiest damn stock out there… sneaks right up on ya.
_
Fly —
Well in case you start getting the DT’s for a kick ephinephrin blast, the first fib on QTWW is $2.33.
That’s where I’ll be re-entering.
PS — TMR still looking pretty strong here at $3.07.
Understand, however, this is not “client assets” kind of shit, that’s for sure. Not this 12-step ruining shit.
______
Jake, good to hear it, no Midol for you haha. My GLD calls are doing well today also.
I’m liking the new GLD options.