It’s garbage time.
“The Fly” is ever so busy, scouring the market for low-grade energy plays. I’m sure the market will eventually collapse; but for now, I feel like trying my hand at some oil gambling.
Real quick, my watchlist includes:
TMY, END, BDCO, GGR, SYNM, USEG, URZ, AEZ, TRGL, BMD, JDO, BCON, MPET, QTWW, GSX, BQI, SSN, TGC, EGR, AOG, LEI, BPG, HKN, PDRT, EPM and PRC.
When shoveling through shit, you want to look for the stocks that are spiking with volume. That’s the key. The stock must trade 10x normal trading, in order to make it worthwhile—for a trade.
Back to the real world, FTK is working for me, like an indentured slave fetching lemonade on a hot day. In addition, recent positions in PCZ and AUY provide further proof of “The Fly’s” greatness and asset to the financial community.
In closing, I do not feel like adding to my short positions. If you insist, take a gander at SRS. For now, “The Fly” will gamble a little in oil, while throwing eggs out of his office window—striking the piker brokers smoking cigarettes and drinking coffee down below.
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Hey, PDRT made the list. I’ve been holding that steaming pile for years now. From $4 to below $2. Seems to be picking up some steam lately as part of the POS energy plays theme. They had a secondary that priced at $1.50 a few weeks ago, and the stock didn’t sell off, which is positive. Volume was about 5x normal volume yesterday, and the hope is that they are announcing a field test with a legit company soon. Typically, though, volume is quite light, so it’s only easy for a poor guy like me to trade in and out of the stock with relative ease.
bcon is not a trade, it is an investment. Their technology is way better than mvis.
I’m going Vegas here also for a daytrade just before the oil inventory report. Buying DUG,CAL,JBLU. Lord Help me.
Still in it and like all good daytraders I am on my hands and knees praying.
FPP
I repeat, FPP
Re-upped from previous page:
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Mike, here’s my “major points” take on FED’s disclosure this morning, which is now looking like today’s open was a good short fill opportunity:
1) Net Earnings spread (ie, interest and investment yield vs. cost of money) has shrunk an amazing 87 basis pts — or almost 24% since this time last year.
2) Loan repayments are down considerably (38.2%) from this time last year (although they are up from last month about 20.5%, month to month), which can mean that either the pace of refinancing has slowed or that they are increasingly stuck with “immovable” loans that are destined for destruction. The third option is that these loans are good profitable loans that are staying on the books. Try saying that one in the mirror with a straight face.
3) Their percentage of ARM loan originations are down a gigantic amount. From 57% of total loans originated this time last year to 4% of loans originated at the end of this month. Total ARMs as a percentage of total loans in the portfolio has also dropped, from an astonishing 97% last year to about 84% at last month’s end. This may be where the market is getting some of it’s “hope” — but 84% adjustable is still pretty damn scary — especially when such a large portion is going to adjust from “precarious” to “jumping off the cliff.”
Moreover, the lack of NEW ARM loans tells me that there are a heck of a lot of people with old ARMs who now have NO ABILITY to refinance at “trigger.” We already know how many ARM’s FED has in its portfolio, so take your own assumptions there.
4) Non accruing loans are up another 10.7% from last month and 989% year over year. Loans 30-59 days over have dropped this month by 22.4% month over month, but non accruing loans 60-90 days over increased again by 11.6% month over month. Perhaps the market is gaining hope from the decrease in 30-59 day NA’s, but one month cannot be a signal “all is well,” imo. Not in this environment.
5) Total deposits are down 2.56% in an increasingly competitive deposit environment. This can also be seen as a sign that people are less reluctant to leave their money in FED, and indicative of a higher reliance on FHLB and other sources for reserve capital.
That’s about all I’ve got on a the first pass through.
Back to the real world, FTK is working for me, like an indentured slave (sic) fetching lemonade on a hot day.
What’s an indentured slave? Is that like a leased-out minion?
It makes no sense. That’s why I wrote it.
Figures, you were the only one who picked up on it.
MXC on fire again. The company profile on Yahoo! shows the firm has 2 full time employees.
They must be partying.
Prolly only because my ancestors were indentured servants.
Sort of like trader servants, save with less head trauma.