iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
21,316 Blog Posts

Bagels Are on Fire

So, England nationalizes Northern Rock and I’m supposed to feel better about myself? I don’t think so, fuckfaces.

At the end of the day, the price of a bagel is out of control inflated, selling for nearly $1 per, thanks to skyrocketing flour expenses. We have commodity prices running like internet stocks circa 1999, unemployment on the rise and a “tapped out” consumer—due to depreciating home values. And on top of that, we have the worst credit crisis since the Great Depression.

Don’t you fucktards get it?

The price of the bagel is going up. How can we live with 1 dollar bagel expenses and what will we eat?

Answer: We can’t. Nothing.

Seriously, because food is so vital, paying very high food expenses can actually deflate other prices—enabling the Government to declare low core cpi data. Think about it.

If people aren’t shopping at [[M]], because everyone is spending their money on inflated essentials, the price of 100% wool sweaters will drop.

In the meantime, I anticipate a long/arduous battle for the market. There are too many money managers, with far too much assets. These men are stupid, mind you. They will “acquire” shares of XYZ in the middle of a “thermo-nuclear” war because that shit will be “priced in.”

With my money, I will sell short more [[RIMM]], [[LEH]] and “acquire” more [[SRS]] and [[DUG]].

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54 comments

  1. Big Mike

    Fly, you are unbelievable…your bitching about high prices in commodities (even admitting possible bubble), yet you bulked up on SMN.

    That is just…not…wise…

    Good Job! http://WWW.I-BANK-ON-FLY‘S-COIN.com

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  2. Add some fxp here?

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  3. The Fly

    Mike:

    Go eat a bagel.

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  4. Steve

    Yeah, if wages were stagnant I could agree with your bagel thesis. Too bad for you they are not.

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  5. The Fly

    Oh but they are.

    What wage growth are you citing?

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  6. mrkcbill

    Fly has seen the future $10 Natty…

    Went to the movies this weekend.
    Ticket Daytime $7
    Medium Popcorn & Medium Coke $9.35 My kind of margins!

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  7. TraderCaddy

    I solved the bagel cost problem awhile back by buying day old bagels. It’s buy six to a sleeve and buy two sleeves and you can get one free. It costs $2.50 a sleeve so I get 18 bagels for $5.00. I throw them in the freezer. On top of that they are NY style bagels like the kind you Yankees get in the big city.

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  8. BOOMER

    Not to fire up the anti-cop sentiment in our midst, but I was horrified to see this:

    http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/story?id=4309643&page=1

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  9. Counter

    Steve,
    My guess is “real” wages (minus real inflation) are dropping. Plus layoffs are only beginning.

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  10. nncoco

    Movies in SoCal are $10.75

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  11. Juice

    Fly, I agree with everything you’ve written.

    Also, I would like for everyone to keep an eye on SWC & PAL. They are pieces of shit companies. They are on rocket fuel.

    JJ is right about them for the wrong reasons. These are armageddon stocks. This is a very bad sign.

    Just as GOOG going down is a bad sign. GOOG represents the flow of information, openly, unrestricted. If that flow becomes censored, taken control of, I can tell you that is not good for any of us.

    All stocks represent what is going on in this world. Steels, food, commodities are going up because of overpopulation and a fight over dwindling resources. This earth can only support so many people.

    This is not fun & games people.

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  12. Helicopter Ben

    It appears that the US consumer is not dead, and will continue to spend until Uncle Sammy takes the credit card away.

    Which will never happen.

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  13. Big Mike

    Hahahah, I’m just messing with ya, Fly…I’m also long via SMN.

    Although LEH looks awfully delicious right now…watch for Aug.2007 support breakdown…once it does…I’m going to double it…

    Why the fuck is Deck up 5%? I thought Wal-Mart guidance was bad…

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  14. alphadawgg

    Juice,

    Scenario for set up of WW III?

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  15. calvino

    Nationalizing Northern Pebble after a Branson the duffer did not even bite is good news?? Ah heck no- that is bad news. Might as well bid Barclays up.. it’s ok.. London commercial RE is a screaming bargain.. and remember they are the smartes guys in the room- kidnapping lab technicians and math PA’s on tv and shit.

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  16. kmorph

    Never mind, just saw Juice’s comment above

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  17. calvino

    Wedbush Morgan upgrade Mike.. they changed their minds from last month when they downgraded – wedbush douchebags. That kind of bullshit calls for closing equities research desk and saving money.

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  18. Juice

    alpha .. lets just say I am extremely concerned … ww3 or worse .. doesn’t have to happen of course… nothing is written

    but as we are stock people, and we are stuck in front of computers, not out in the world, stocks are our window into the earth & the universe …… they represent what is going on everywhere 6 months ahead of time … be alert as to what is going up & why

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  19. Counter

    “All stocks represent what is going on in this world.”

    All stocks represent the current perception of what is going on in this world.

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  20. BOOMER

    I like how you think Juice.

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  21. Vince Lombardi

    How long is this south africa thing going to play out? My PAL calls hope for a long time.

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  22. nncoco

    Anyone have an armageddon watch list?

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  23. big goatmilker

    Conspiracy theory Tuesday.

    LOL wtf is going on here?

    JJ’s pics are flying and a bush launched torpedo hit the pentagon on 911.

    I will now go take a long walk off a short pier.

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  24. PleaseKillMe

    “enabling the Government to declare low core cpi data. Think about it.”

    Disagree. CPI is a weighted average of a weighted average. Having 100% wool sweater (high end items) affecting CPI is the same thing as a declining Flying Spur bringing down car prices.

    Basic economics. When you buy bonds in the open market, auction off money, and cut the discount rate, then you have prices that… Add in China, India, Eastern Europe.

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  25. JakeGint

    Bruce: All stocks represent what is going on in this world. Steels, food, commodities are going up because of overpopulation and a fight over dwindling resources. This earth can only support so many people.

    Oh for goodness sakes, please save us from the Malthusians.

    Do you realize this economic fallacy is as old (if not older) than the study of economics itself?

    Don’t you remember that other infamous end-of- the-worlder from the 70’s, Paul Erlich, and his “Population Bomb” scare book? That idiot had the world experiencing mass famines and exponential commodity prices by the end of the 80’s.

    Amazingly man adapted to population increases, and made due — and more important, became more efficient — with what he had. Commodity prices declined (and Erlich lost a famous bet with another economist who called bullshit on his scare scenarios) as a result, even with increasingly modernized third world population growth.

    Have some faith in humanity, Bruce!

    And read up!

    And something a little more up to date.

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  26. calvino

    Since Norilsk bought SWC, the czar Putin along with certain continental trading firms and hedge funds have a surplus of palladium. This stockpile goes back to the last pump and dump in 2001, except some people just got caught on the pump handle. The SWC takeout was supposed to help out with the next leg, so as to cut off the only American producer.

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  27. alphadawgg

    How’s this for a doomsday scenario?

    If you are willing to accept it, the “Babylon” mentioned in these writings, appears to describe America.

    The only way a city (country) can be destroyed in one hour is by a thermonuclear holocaust.

    Revelation (also called “The Apocalypse”) 18: 1-19….

    “1And after these things I saw another angel come down from heaven, having great power; and the earth was lightened with his glory.

    2And he cried mightily with a strong voice, saying, Babylon the great is fallen, is fallen, and is become the habitation of devils, and the hold of every foul spirit, and a cage of every unclean and hateful bird.

    3For all nations have drunk of the wine of the wrath of her fornication, and the kings of the earth have committed fornication with her, and the merchants of the earth are waxed rich through the abundance of her delicacies.

    4And I heard another voice from heaven, saying, Come out of her, my people, that ye be not partakers of her sins, and that ye receive not of her plagues.

    5For her sins have reached unto heaven, and God hath remembered her iniquities.

    6Reward her even as she rewarded you, and double unto her double according to her works: in the cup which she hath filled fill to her double.

    7How much she hath glorified herself, and lived deliciously, so much torment and sorrow give her: for she saith in her heart, I sit a queen, and am no widow, and shall see no sorrow.

    8Therefore shall her plagues come in one day, death, and mourning, and famine; and she shall be utterly burned with fire: for strong is the Lord God who judgeth her.

    9And the kings of the earth, who have committed fornication and lived deliciously with her, shall bewail her, and lament for her, when they shall see the smoke of her burning,

    10Standing afar off for the fear of her torment, saying, Alas, alas that great city Babylon, that mighty city! for in one hour is thy judgment come.

    11And the merchants of the earth shall weep and mourn over her; for no man buyeth their merchandise any more:

    12The merchandise of gold, and silver, and precious stones, and of pearls, and fine linen, and purple, and silk, and scarlet, and all thyine wood, and all manner vessels of ivory, and all manner vessels of most precious wood, and of brass, and iron, and marble,

    13And cinnamon, and odours, and ointments, and frankincense, and wine, and oil, and fine flour, and wheat, and beasts, and sheep, and horses, and chariots, and slaves, and souls of men.

    14And the fruits that thy soul lusted after are departed from thee, and all things which were dainty and goodly are departed from thee, and thou shalt find them no more at all.

    15The merchants of these things, which were made rich by her, shall stand afar off for the fear of her torment, weeping and wailing,

    16And saying, Alas, alas that great city, that was clothed in fine linen, and purple, and scarlet, and decked with gold, and precious stones, and pearls!

    17For in one hour so great riches is come to nought. And every shipmaster, and all the company in ships, and sailors, and as many as trade by sea, stood afar off,

    18And cried when they saw the smoke of her burning, saying, What city is like unto this great city!

    19And they cast dust on their heads, and cried, weeping and wailing, saying, Alas, alas that great city, wherein were made rich all that had ships in the sea by reason of her costliness! for in one hour is she made desolate.”

    Read it and weep.

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  28. PleaseKillMe

    “It appears that the US consumer is not dead, and will continue to spend until Uncle Sammy takes the credit card away.

    Which will never happen.”

    That’s happening right now. When you can’t make the min payment, then you’re not going to get another credit card or have your limit increased. As Ben said to Congress

    “The combination of larger balance sheets and unexpected losses prompted banks to become protective of their liquidity and balance sheet capacity and thus to become less willing to provide funding to other market participants, including other banks”

    This is a great read. A deep read and investigation of all item points will teach you more than a college economics course.

    http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/bernanke20080117a.htm

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  29. jeff

    International usurers, in Pound’s view, create wars for their own profit, to get nations into debt, and are continually trying to stamp out any threat to their economic monopoly and any move toward economic justice. They control the newspapers and the press, which in turn maintain the ignorance of the people about economic subjects. “The Count of Vergennes had cause to say to John Adams: ‘newspapers rule the world.'”

    And I say unto you, in the words of my uncle:

    Down with Rockefeller.

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  30. MarketRaider

    Dr. Peter Venkman: This city is headed for a disaster of biblical proportions.
    Mayor: What do you mean, “biblical”?
    Dr Ray Stantz: What he means is Old Testament, Mr. Mayor, real wrath-of-God type stuff.
    Dr. Peter Venkman: Exactly.
    Dr Ray Stantz: Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies. Rivers and seas boiling.
    Dr. Egon Spengler: Forty years of darkness. Earthquakes, volcanoes…
    Winston Zeddemore: The dead rising from the grave.
    Dr. Peter Venkman: Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together – mass hysteria.

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  31. calvino

    Alpha, didn’t know you had the millenerian streak in you, thought you were more concerned with the millions.

    As far as beating up on Malthus.. just because something has not happened does not mean it won’t. Charlie Chan and little Gupta are now now deeply and self righteously lodged into the flesh eating class.. so much for the previous imprecations of the filthy westernaar. don’t think the mandarins and the rajputs are going to judiciously manage their resources.. until starving Marvin has a bayo tickling their ribs. never thought i’d see hard winter red trading at 18 either.

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  32. Vince Klortho

    Gozer the Traveler. He will come in one of the pre-chosen forms. During the rectification of the Vuldrini, the traveler came as a large and moving Torg! Then, during the third reconciliation of the last of the McKetrick supplicants, they chose a new form for him: that of a giant Slor! Many Shuvs and Zuuls knew what it was to be roasted in the depths of the Slor that day, I can tell you!

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  33. boca

    If we’re talking the Apocalypse and food stockpiling…. I bought my MRE stash on Ebay.

    Who knew stock traders were so prepared for the end of civilization as we know it?

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  34. BOOMER

    “There in no Dana. Only Zuul.”

    Name the movie.

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  35. boca

    Ghostbusters? with the marshmallow man…

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  36. Helicopter Ben

    pleasekillme:

    Just an ancedote: you’ve probably heard that lenders are not doing 100% financing anymore. Oh, except for one lender….

    …you see…you can get 100% financing on a house still through at least two entities: USDA and VA.

    Now imagine the same senario re: banks and credit. After the UK nationalizing NR, its not so far fetched, particuarly in light of the ugly alternative.

    Which makes me wonder why the hell I’m trying to play in a market that is being gamed…but I digress…

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  37. Rick Moranis

    Those where the good ‘ol days.

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  38. GoLongArmageddon

    Steel, food, and commodity prices will likely decline during Armageddon. That should take pressure off the cpi, and give the FED room to continue to lower interest rates.

    Buy stocks.

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  39. Juice

    How old is our civilization here on earth? 10,000 – 15000 years old? How old is industrialized age? 200 years? Technology age? 50-75?

    This is an inconceivably huge universe. Suppose civilizations have been technologically advanced for 50000 years, and we are not even 100 years into a technological age; Don’t you think they had space programs & eventually settled other planets? What makes you think the earth was not such a settlement & all this talk of the Lord & his wrath is nothing but those settlers laserbeaming civilizations that were becoming too free & out of their control.

    Its beyond our comprehension what has gone on in this universe & even in earths history.

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  40. Leawoodblues

    If the bunker mentality expressed on this thread is any indication of prevailing sentiment, I may have to change my bias to long-leveraged.

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  41. The Black Guy in Ghostbusters
    The Black Guy in Ghostbusters

    Who she gonna call?

    http://www.imdb.com/media/rm3330972160/nm0001368

    Damn straight.

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  42. Juice

    Jake … stocks do not go up forever without a correction. We are in uncharted territories as far as population & its demands on this world. I am not prepared to bury my head in some be happy, close your eyes, no problems, the future is so bright, put on your shades, kind of thinking. That is lemmings running off a cliff. I am only suggesting to view all possibilities. How much is priced in and if there was something to happen to the population, if it suffered a substantial ‘correction’, this market has not priced that in.

    If someone has access to a world population chart, please post with all appropriate technical indicators & we will let the chartists decode.

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  43. Prospectus

    RE the Revelations bit:

    IMO, Babylon refers to “the world” in general, meaning those who love things of this world more than God. Nearly everything in Revelation is symbolic, including the estimates of time. I believe the metaphor of the fall of Babylon represents the fall of the wicked when Jesus Christ comes back to the earth and cleans off the wicked from the people. So while some in America, including its leaders, can be classified in this way, I don’t think it means we’re all gonna get nuked as a whole.

    Now, back to getting drunk and buying stocks 😉

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  44. JJ2000426

    Juice:

    Interesting insight. Can you explain why you think my favorite stocks are amargeddon stocks?

    The FLY:

    I laugh at you! I have NEVER seem a nut in my lifetime harder to crack than you. PAL up almost 20% and SWC up almost 10% today. So what does it take to convince you to buy some shares?

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/63529-investing-in-a-resource-constrained-world-part-ii

    Look at the metals going crazy:
    http://www.apmex.com

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  45. Sir Douchebag

    the price of bagels is not correlated to the stock market…

    You’re just making excuses now because you already ‘committed’ to being short.

    Look at the tape. Demand for metals, mining/construction equip, luxury goods, food, fertilizer, energy super strong globally.

    Now where are all these sellers going to come from?

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  46. Juice

    JJ, 1st. Please admit, for once, that SWC & PAL are very poorly run companies with horrid balance sheets.

    That said; They are armageddon stocks because they mine space age metals, useful only in very advanced technology & up till now, not of much use to the terrestrial human, hence the limited demand.

    Technically, they are about to come up against some resistance very near here. Though,it appears likely, if they take a break, that they may very well go higher.

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  47. PleaseKillMe

    Helicopter Ben,

    I just feel bad for the common guy who’s going to get screwed and doesn’t even know it. He would rather have the bandaid over the wound, than clean out the bacteria which is slowing eating away at this skin. At least with me and you, we can profit from these events.

    When you’re a government entity, you really don’t care about profit/loss. No shareholders, no dividends, and you can’t go bankrupt. You just increase the deficit but that’s already breaking records. The dollar gets screwed and so will our standards of living. How are we suppose to pay down our debts? The most direct way is more taxes.

    Any “nationlization” will accelerate the gap between rich and poor. Thank god, we’re on the right side.

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  48. kd

    fly,
    do you know anyone attending ROTH conf.? MVIS will be there, any update would be much appreciated.
    thanks.
    kd

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  49. JakeGint

    “The Fly” writes an article.

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  50. JJ2000426

    So the FLY’s real name is Jon Katz?

    Juice:

    You clearly do not understand the platinum and palladium metal. Need to study the PGM metal 101:

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/55173-palladium-an-investable-metal-that-defies-physics

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  51. Q4

    Juice:

    The Platinum Metals Group supplies to more than just “advanced technology”. The auto industry is a huge consumer of these metals.

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  52. TraderCaddy

    He should pick up some arroz con pollo as long as he is hanging out in Little Havana.

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  53. JakeGint

    Vince:

    Many Shuvs and Zuuls knew what it was to be roasted in the depths of the Slor that day, I can tell you!

    Not only was the above a line memorized by my entire room group in college, but it was rolled out often to liven various stuffy Smith and Holyoke parties.

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  54. JakeGint

    Brucie,

    Population growth correlates with economic growth. The problem to the economy going forward will not be overpopulation, but underpopulation. This will be an especially difficult quandry in Westernized welfare states, where the demographics have been dampened thanks to 1) selfish baby boomers not having enough kids

    2) selfish baby boomers deciding between taxes, their own pleasure and having children and choosing two out of three. Guess which two?

    3) Chinese fucktards without enough women around to marry. Perhaps they will move to India?

    We can only hope.

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