This week, the bears got their faces punched off, as the banks and homies danced on their own graves. In a odd twist of fate, “The Fly” played this recent run 100% wrong, following his genius early year calls.
Essentially, this week, Mother Market beat me senseless, with ricockulous losses in [[SKF]], [[EFU]], [[SMN]] and [[REW]]. Oh, let’s not forget the psycho move in [[LEH]] too.
I’ve never seen the banks run like this, ever. These fuckers are moving up with a vengeance, out for bear blood.
Trust me when I tell you, short sellers are being depleted entirely of walking around money—similar to what the bulls felt two weeks ago.
If you’re not careful, the market will bankrupt you, then drive you to the front door of your local mental institution.
Finally, it’s worth noting, “The Fly” is confident his fortunes will increase next week. The year is young. We’re just getting started.
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Hey Fly,
I just got my nuts handed to me by LEH this week and I am basically holding on to it because quite frankly I don’t have the nuts to do something. So do you think this stock of Satan will die soon or are people so happy about the increased div thats its just going to keep going higher? God I hate this stock!
It will come in.
Ya’ll are funny.
Since ya’ll seem like good God-fearin’ men (well, mosta y’all), I thought I’d give you a sneak peak at my upcoming plan to clean up this here banking crisis:
http://nerdapproved.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/05/giant-whiteout.jpeg
What y’all think? My buddies at the SEC are already movin’ with this one, relaxin’ rules and makin’ up new ones.
Well, gotta get back to my game of solitaire. Good luck with that SKF, buddy!
I ain’t stressin…this year will be a big one.
i’m not sressing long-term but i feel like i need to check myself into the local mental institue after feeling completely fooled by the mkt this week. how does the mkt rally on this jobs number?
Momentum is in favor of the bulls.
This reminds me of when i sold out of my SRS @ $75, only to see it print $140 a month later.
Fly,
hang in there, one way or another you will do well.
Not a good idea to let pride get in the way of making money. When wrong, get out. Do a flip-flop. Don’t compound the problem. What if the banks continue to melt up because aliens from another planet come to Earth and decide to fill the all the vaults with .9999 fine gold bricks? (As a gesture of goodwill).
What I mean to say is that the markets don’t always make sense. They can get wierd and bizzare. Play it both ways, I says and avoid the aggravation. Long and / or short. What a wonderful capitalist system we have.
It is only prudent to be doubtful of this market. But opportunities are being missed by those who are scared out or short this leg up. I’m playing this with risk money, keeping stops tight. The way I look at it, I have to.
Respectfully submitted.
Ahhh, my “first dog” Cerebrus is amusing, is he not?
Who wished to “break it” –as you children say– to my “dawg” that what makes gold valuable is it’s scarcity, and not it’s surplus?
Fly, when you were up 20% two and a half weeks into the year, someone suggested you go to cash and buy treasuries. 12 months later and a 23% return on the books and you would have looked like a genius.
Vacation… no stress… no messing with Internet fucktards.
I understand the fundamentals, but not sure why you kept pressing so hard on the downside after such a good run. The bounce was imminent, and you knew it.
But what do I know? I’m down 2% on the year in my six-figure, discount house account.
I have attached a link to the HD video series of Wall Street Warriors for those who are interested. It’s episode two. The Brokers are still pushing SNDK and the girl from Columbia thinks she will start making consistent $$ daytrading in 4-6 months and starts out by reading The Complete Idiots Guide To Daytrading.
http://www.mojohd.com/video/
TC– What are you, a producer of that show??
Must read… article about Option ARMS. The next thing that will nuke the market?
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUKN2436651820080201?pageNumber=5&virtualBrandChannel=0&sp=true
Two thoughts:
After getting my ass handed to me, and losing $200k from my 12/31/07 balance…(actual realized losses mind you, because that’s how I roll)…
I have recovered $145k in 7 trading sessions, on a smaller trading base, no new capital.
———————-
Did you all see the piece on Fast Money last night, with the guy talking about refining/oil/gas infrastructure? He mentioned JEC and FLS. Note the rallies in those stocks. I’ve mentioned JEC here in the last few weeks.
Guess who provides them with explosively clad metal, and other nifty doo-dabs?
Have a good weekend.
WTF is a “doo dab?”
round stuff, angled things, couplings, pipe crap, connectors, tanks, etc.
even a bit of welding
From Falanke’s piece… a quote that makes you want to reach through the computer and strangle the “quotee:”
This product is suitable for people with a lot of money who are financially astute,” said David Zugheri, president of First Houston Mortgage, which offers loans in 18 U.S. states. “But very few people fit that category and that’s why we didn’t make many of these loans.”
Not only is this comment feeble, it’s a disingenuous lie. What “financially astute” individual would get a loan with negative amortization?
The Tan Man needs to be breaking rocks in Levenworth.
Jake:
No need to fight the tanned one anymore.
CFC, IMB, ABK and MBI will all be bailed out by our financial Czar’s.
Then, they will fix the price of oil to $60, sending the DOW to 18,000 by year end.
All the while, unemployment will ratchet up to 6.5%. But who cares?
Those unemployed fuckers are burger flippers.
Jake – the negative amortization is an option.
Could be a good option to have if you have lumpy income.
The problem became when the option was used to allow people to think they were buying an $800,000 home for $1200/month.
Don’t forget, ” and Nixon will be exhumed and re-elected President.”
The banks and economy will be saved when the $600 checks are sent out with the requirement that they be be deposited in the bank for use as collateral on $6000 personal loans.
Ott — I don’t see it as much more than a super payday loan shark bid for fucktards.
“Doan’ worry… you pay da minimum!”
Almost, Jake. Only I don’t think McCain will win.
Exhumed, but defeated.
Jake – your comment about option mortgages is correct, starting a few years back. The quote was talking about an earlier time.
Here’s my opinion on the banks. It’s free, so give it the consideration it deserves.
The Big Swinging Dicks (“BSD”) have been underweight the banks for several months. Now that the yield curve is steep, and after the banks have taken huge writeoffs and beefed up their loan loss reserves, the BSDs want/need to get back to at least market weight. But the dividend yield for most big bankis was 6%-7% before this monster rally. That 6%-7% divy yield looks pretty sweet in this low interest rate environment, so there are not enough sellers for all the BSDs that need to reallocate their portfolios. The only way BSD can get back to market weight is to take the offers and drive prices higher. That’s my interpretation anyway.
I had been 90% in a closed end corporate bond fund until the surprise 75bp cut. I sold a bunch of it and bought BAC in size the day after the 75bps cut. The way I see it, unless there’s some brand new twist to the financial crisis that hasn’t been talked about, written about and analyzed ad nauseum for months, I expect BAC to put on another at least another $12 in the next few months to get to a divy yield of 4.5%.
Gotta love that I got a “double blue line” for “payday loan.”
Ah me.
McCain, Clinton, Obama… what’s the difference?
Trotskyites, all.
Pud:
Well, the market has your back, so it is difficult to argue with you.
Here’s what I think, though. I think those BSDs still don’t understand what is going on. I think they are from the same herd as the Big Castrated Doofuses who created the mess by deciding that the high fees available from securitization made lending standards quaint.
I think they believe that the bank business is rebounding UP to its baseline. I think they believe that the writedowns are mostly or completely over. I think they believe that the Fed action has not only stabilized the banks, but has also cut the chances of recession far down.
I think they will learn that they are very wrong. about all of the above.
Still, your comment about reallocation makes a lot of sense, and it is very painful to have a herd of large animals run you over, no matter how stupid I may think they are being.
“McCain, Clinton, Obama… what’s the difference?”
One white…one black…one blonde.
The Mod Squad
In the light of today’s events, I would like to propose a new category and simultaneously nominate the first winner. Steve Balmer wins the ‘cuntass’, for fucking his company out of 20 billion so far, in one single move, for bench pressing the rotting pig 150 points and for fucking me out of my hard earned money. Barry Ritholtz got it all, excpept for the originality of my coming up with the award name.
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/02/microsoft-takeo.html
I think I am gonna do the wise guy trade & git me a basket of mortgage implosion stocks
MBI
ABK
CFC
IMB
BKUNA
shorts have not been blown out of them yet
Calling the top to the fucking bullshit rally, wetgirl?
Doesn’t AT&T already own Yahoo!?
This whole situation is SO absurd. Your post strikes as serious for you only. What can we do but make jokes about it?