I was out towards the end of the day; so I was unable to watch the egregious losses in my stupid inverse etf’s—which infect my holdings.
Unfortunately, for the bears, the market sentiment has shifted dramatically, as bad news is good news and good news is good news.
What’s important to note is the Fed’s desire to keep stock prices higher, in order to skirt a negative wealth effect. They will not disappoint wall street, for fear of a precipitous drop in stocks.
Therefore, “The Fly” may throw a few longs on the barbie tomorrow, prior to Bernanke’s decision.
Aside from monetary action, the financials, including the monolines, are on fucking fire, with “ricockulous” gains in [[WM]], [[BSC]], [[MBI]] and [[ABK]], as of late.
If we have seen the bottom, expect the market to trade up until late March. In other words, all of you overzealous bearshitters will be fucked, shortly.
UPDATE: [[YHOO]] blows again!
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The Woodshedder Bottom
what will make you decide “fuck it, i’m bailing” on SKF?
Fly,
Even though anything is possible, you think Uncle Ben is gonna add another 50 after just cutting 75 a few days ago. That 75 point emergency cut was crazy enough but a 1.25 cut in a weeks time. Just don’t make no sense.
I bought SKF at $100.04.
That to go along with my 40k of SWC.
-DT
125 bps cuts in one month=biggest rate cut EVER.
Or, “hey the economy is fucking great. We’re just fucking with you.”
Getting Bullish are we ? Thing to watch out for in a countertrend bear market rally is the declining volume. Volume has been low the last couple of days. We may get a sharp reversal starting tomorrow.
No doubt, we’re doomed, intermediate term.
I’m afraid of the near term optimism.
Bear Trap.
trade up until late March
That’s making a lot of assumptions about news that comes out between now and then.
I understand the bad news is good news and good news is good news concept, but I don’t think that sentiment is very thick right now. For one thing, there are big chunks of the market still taking 20% hits. For another, I believe that the sentiment will crumble as news continues to reveal problems that the Fed can’t fix, or that Fed action won’t affect for several quarters.
And, finally, if Bernanke is willing to cut 125 basis points in a week to support stock prices that aren’t even in official bear market territory, he will forever lose his moral authority to waggle his finger at Bubbles Greenspan and blame him for the mess.
financials have messed up my puts. Tech however continues to stink it up. BEARS hope AMZN will do about 25% as bad as VMW. anything beyond that is bonus. GOOG reports this week. now thatʻs a tough one
Once FOMC gets outa the way, thereʻs over a month of potentially bad guidance, without the benefit of Ben coming to the rescue.
Health will be bullish, as will Solars again. Ag is a toss up.
The more bearishness there is, the more the market will go up. The market moves opposite to the sentiment of the crowd (this means you, internet leeches and fuckfaces). Big money knows where you are, and will always squeeze you.
Ott:
Often times markets are irrational. Sometimes it makes sense to go with the trend.
We shall see soon.
Dr. T:
Are you Mr. T with a doctorate?
Where is that little cunt named Rag…who told me and my staff to short WM.
I recommend pitying the fool twice, and then call me in the morning
A case is starting to be made for the banks. It goes something like this:
Banks are able to recapitalize at low costs right now. Nothing is structurally wrong with banking, just the execution has been terrible, viz. the cock-chopping sub-prime contagion.
Case in point: Citi made $3.6 B after tax net income after $22 B in write-offs. Attests to the strength of the bank.
Fed is finally on the same page as everyone else.
Bearishness is rampant with the third tier newsletter writers regarding financial stocks.
Just saying…..
From the Rupert Murdoch Journal:
U.S. Probes 14 Companies In Subprime Investigation
By Evan Perez
Word Count: 406
WASHINGTON – Federal investigators have opened criminal inquiries into 14 companies as part of a wide-ranging investigation of the subprime mortgage crisis, focusing on accounting fraud, securitization of loans and insider trading, among other areas, the Federal Bureau of Investigation said.
The FBI wouldn’t identify the companies under investigation but said that generally the bureau is looking into allegations of fraud in various stages of mortgage securitization, from those who bundled the loans, to the banks that ended up holding them.
Coach Coughlin,
I be mudstomping that little tabasco pepper eatin’ Ragin’ Cajun with my size 13s. Give me da ball!
Sigh, I remember when the Hebraic God was telling me about how much his children annoyed him all throughout that 40 year period when He’d rescued them from Egypt.
And me saying at the time: “Well, I never get that sort of backsass from MY people…”
What was the phrase he used in explanation?
Oh Ye of little faith?
If you continue to vex me, I shall make the Japanese Yen convertible into kruggerands on a one for one basis.
Let’s see you try to “carry” that, children.
the smart people know that the cut is already priced in even if they do… congratulations bulls
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bulltrap.asp
thought you might find that infoormation useful…
too bad it’s the opposite, and it’ll be 3 months before a sustainable rally, not the other way around.
But keep hollering bottom, while simultaneously buying SKF
Go play with your little grapes, you cracka ass demigod.
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LEH has officially gone buck nutty in after hours. Actually it’s been buck nutty over the past few days. Have I ever mentioned I hate this devil spawn of a stock?
I just enjoyed he single fastest 10% short of my trading history: Sold 1000 YHOO 20.3, covered @18.6. That was fun.
down with the banks
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSWBT00826920080129
Boomer,
Wasn’t YHOO your “epiphany” stock?
Such disdain, such disdain.
Anon-
The strange thing is, XLF was up today even with your news story link. The market doesn’t care. Priced in already. Very odd, no?
Being an exceptional trader means appearing “two-faced” to those who are slow to change and slow to act. Your “flip-flop” comment on a previous post is worth noting:
“I must say, today’s durable goods numbers put a damper on the whole “we’re gonna die because we’re in a recession†thesis. Should we get strong employment numbers, later on this week, “The Fly†may have to “flip-flop†on you cowards and start buying stocks again.”
Be careful, large one. Though my sympathies lie with the Giants of the Empire State (reminds me of my Olympian progenitors), I will not scruple to render you the size of Ike Hilliard at a most inopportune collisive moment.
Boomer-Trust me on this one. Scalping is fun only when $$ are made.
Shorticus,
No doubt Ike Hilliard was undersized when compared to Plaxico the Tall. These Giants are truly “Giants”. I didn’t realize that each of the starting offensive linemen are heavier than “Jumbo” Elliott ever was.
It’s funny you mention that… the NFL Channel was playing the first Giant Superbowl (v. Denver) last night, and while I was but a pup I found I remembered much of it quite well. One thing you really notice seeing it today, however, is the size difference from 20 years ago…
Rulon Jones, for example, has to have been the last skinny white man to play defensive line, ever. Dude was about the size of Joe Jurevicious and he was in their making tackle after tackle.
With the FBI probe news and the fed cutting 25pts (or less, hopefully) tomorrow, my new SKF position has a chance tomorrow. Now if only MVIS continues to behave…
Jake,
I watched it twice, thus indicating my rabidness for the team.
Made the same observation. They all had “toothpick” legs. Lionel Manuel looked like a high school prep player.
I guess the steroids were not as widely used back then. Brandon Jacobs is bigger than LT ever was, if that’s an indication. Then again, Brandon Jacobs is bigger than 95% of the linebackers today.
Van,
Mentioning SKF and MVIS in the same comment is not a good sign for SKF. I pity you—-twice.
NFM and ISM info are released at the end of the week. these are the 2 data points that sparked the sell-off. last months NFM figure was 18k and this month is expected to be 65k. the number is volatile and usually bounces around. if NFM and ISM surprise or meet expectations, the market will rally hard. if the numbers are recessionary, sell every asset you have and put it into inverse ETFs. i have a feeling the numbers will be good….only cuz i’m real short.
as far as the fed cuts go….if they cut 125 bps in 10 days, the info they are seeing must be beyond repair. after 9/11 the emerg cut was only 50 which brought the rate down to 3.00. on Oct 2 they dropped another 50. is now really worse than then? if it is then short the fuck out of the market when this sucker rally looses steam
Pay attention to this simple example.
Then go and vote accordingly.
Interesting photo shoot. This guys spends half a year in a boat off the coast of South Africa every year to get some action shots of scary ass great whites munching on seals.
His reasoning, at least partly, is to inform and educate people about great whites so they won’t get hunted into extinction, yada yada yada.
I dunno if this is going to do the trick, though.
In theory – when things look their worst, when it seems hopeless, when the world is ending – that is the time to exit your short and take profits. (like early 1/22/08)
Conversely – when optimism peaks, when it seems like the only direction is up – that is the time to add to your short position. (like now)
I am stubbornly (foolishly?) holding on to my SKF positions and praying that this theory is correct.
Bob, i feel ya. i want to sell my inverses and go long despite my opinion that the mkt ends up much lower than the low it tested last week, but i know that as soon as i do that, the market will crack again. all i know is that we’re fuked if the ISM and NFM jobs figures are positive.
Economy is perfect, I mean look at YHOO stellar guidance. LOL
What’s 10% and a 52 week low between friends.
25 BP/50 BP don’t matter, even more bad news for insurers (downgrades), market tanks. Bear trap, hope you didn’t get caught. When everybody panics and covers, I double up. Only the strong survive.
Shorticus:
You will have your blood sacrifice soon.