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08-01-2014 Trading Journal

The market took another tumble albeit a relatively small one compared to yesterday.


Looking at the chart, you can see for formation of a doji bar right on the 79 & 89 MA lines.  In a normal circumstance, a doji at any support or resistance has a better than 50% chance of reversing from current momentum.  Without resistance or support nearby the doji, it is more of a pause of existing trend.  Notice I stated “better than 50%”; not necessary in the high percentile of 70% and up.  However, if I’m a betting man, I’ll bet it is going to bounce next week.

While I got away yesterday from bigger losses, market found a way to hand it back to me today.

First, I sold my whole lot of $KGJI simply ’cause I was annoyed by the withdrawal of the cash dividend that was posted to my account.  Since I used the cash dividend to add more $AMRN, the withdrawal put me in a deficit cash situation (remember, I’m 100% invested in a non-margin account) and I received a debit call from my broker this morning.  I’ve never experienced a retraction of cash dividend ever after being posted to my account by any company.  This retraction was a red flag no matter how you spin it.  Waiting for approval from provincial government?  What if the provincial government denies approval?  Does that mean, “Sorry folks, we tried to give you dividend, but the big boss says no.” 

Anyway, to relieve my cash deficit, I sold some $KGJI to balance it back.  Then before I knew it, I sold the whole lot ’cause I just didn’t like the red flag that was handed to me in a silver platter.  With the add’l cash, I added more $HYGS.  Yes, I am a big believer in the emergent relevancy of fuel cell technology.

The irony of the day is that $HYGS is the only stock in my port that went up today while the other five stocks were down.


Take a look at the weekly chart above. This week was an up bar that continued from last week up bar while the $SPY had a big down weekly bar this week.  The counter-trend against the falling general market makes $HYGS a very bullish stock when general market turns bullish. Imagine seeing the beginning of the 3rd wave of the five wave Elliott Wave Theory on the weekly chart.  I can see $100+ when the 3rd wave complete its run.  Pardon my excitement here.

$DMRC continued to disappoint but I’ve resigned to wait this one out.  A sudden turn-around can be expected if a deal can be struck with any big name retailers.

$AMRN gave back was expected as I had stated yesterday.  Without FDA response today, no one wanted to hold thru the weekend.  However, giving the volume yesterday compared to today’s, I suspected a lot more people are holding for the FDA decision.

Today damage was 2.7% against my port and YTD losses is 4.1%.

Current holdings… and then there is six…

LRAD, HYGS, DMRC, STV, AMRN, ORBC (100% invested/speculated)

Notice that $HYGS is now my 2nd largest position.  $DMRC will have to earn its place back by climbing back up in the near future.

From my other account:

I bought $KNDI for the bounce and bounced it did; but it also took out my breakeven stop later on.

My 2 cents.


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07-25-2014 Trading Journal

Market had its correction for the week.


It was still a healthy correction with price closing above the 15 MA line.  The bear tried to push it down further but could not overcome the bull resiliency.

The winner of the day in my port is $HYGS. Price went ballistic and rallied 17.6% for the day.


With today rally, price took out the $20 as well as the 79 & 89 MA resistances.  The chart is very bullish with the next resistance being $23 established in early May.  Once that resistance is taking out, next resistance is at $28.75 established in late March.  Yes, it won’t be a straight line going up; however, positive earnings outlook coming soon in July 30th may propel price to take out these resistances easily.  I’m holding thru earnings, of course.

Fundamentally speaking, for those who are curious about today price rally, Hydrogenics has proven itself to be leader in Power-to-Gas energy storage system by being selected as a Preferred Respondent by the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) for Ontario in its procurement for Grid Energy Storage.  On top of this project, Hydrogenics “have already experienced the positive impact of having a highly visible reference site with E.ON in Germany” (excerpt from article in above link).

Power-to-Gas is one of Hydrogenics main products and solutions being offered.  And this part of the business has only just begun.  As more and more cities and countries begin to see the validity of the Power-to-Gas energy storage concept, Hydrogencis will be getting calls.  Here is the beauty of Hydrogenics Power-to-Gas energy storage system, “it integrates renewable sources of generation, converts surplus electricity to produce hydrogen or renewable gas, and leverages the attributes of the existing natural gas infrastructure.”

Now, you know why I’m holding this one for a long-long time.  $HYGS is my make-up for the missed $LNG trade in which I bought at $3 and sold at around $7 or $8 and missed the whole ride to current $75+.

I was fortunate to have $HYGS spectacular rally today ’cause my other six stocks were down along with the general market with $DMRC leading the charge.  Hence, my port was down only 0.3% and YTD losses is at 2.9%.

Like I said, all I need is a minimum of one of the seven stocks to have a knock-out rally before year-end to give me a positive year.  We still have the five months before the year is up.

Current holdings:

LRAD, DMRC, HYGS, STV, KGJI, ORBC, AMRN (100% invested/speculated).

From my other account:

I daytraded $KNDI today with a small gain.  While I originally bought for a longer-term hold, I changed my mind when I saw my gain becoming smaller in late afternoon.

My 2 cents.


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The Resurgence of the Oil Service Industry

Let’s start with the Oil Service sector chart: $OIH, shall we?


The above is a weekly chart.  One quick look and you know it is on a strong uptrend.

Fundamentally speaking, there are strong demand for oil service in the coming future.  Do you know why?

The Permian Basin region

Believe it or not, the ongoing speculation is that the Permian Basin has the potential to be the world second largest oil field behind Saudi Arabia.  This speculation is also my reason in owning $PXD.

With that kind of oil reserve underneath, oil service industry is going to be quite busy, don’t you think?

Personally, I like to trade $WG.

Take a look at the weekly chart below:


While there are zig-zag on the price movement, the general direction is still up. Recent correction from earnings report provided the “zag”/correction for me to buy in for the ride.

Today, $WG bounces off the daily 5 MA and takes out the high of the last five days; this is good enough for me to start a position.


If price can close above the 79 & 89 MA lines today, it will be further confirmation that $WG can rebounce from here and move on higher through out 2014.

My 2 cents.

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Wakening of the Golden $NUGT

Here we go again, my x number of times to catch the bottom of $NUGT.  I had a good run back in August and a few attempts afterward that didn’t quite work out.  Now I’m trying again for the $100 roll by getting back in yesterday.

Today is a good sign that $NUGT may be getting ready to run hard.   With a strong gap-up and a persistent momentum that hasn’t shown any weariness yet, the odd of $100 roll is increasing.

Take a look at the daily chart:


The 5 SMA has finally crossed over the 15 SMA today and a solid green bar even after the gap-up.  I like to see price action takes out the upper Bollinger band to show proof of strength.  There are two overhead resistances however- the 79 SMA and the 89 XMA.  In due time, both of these resistances may be turning up in direction as well.  If that is the case, the resistances may be weakened for $NUGT to pierce thru.

Now take a look at the hourly chart:


Did you see the cup and handle breakout?  Statistically speaking, I’ve made more money trading cup & handle breakout than other methods.  This strong break out bode well for $NUGT today.

My 2 cents.

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Can $KGJI be the girls’ best friend?

Why not?

Kingold Jewelry, Inc. ($KGJI) engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of gold jewelry, ornaments, and investment-oriented products in the People’s Republic of China (the PRC). It provides a range of gold products, including gold necklaces, rings, earrings, bracelets, pendants, and gold bars. The company sells its products under the Kingold brand name directly to retailers, distributors, and wholesalers covering 25 provinces and municipalities in the PRC. Kingold Jewelry, Inc. was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Wuhan, the People’s Republic of China.

Although I am late to the party, I don’t think the run is over yet.

Take a look at the daily chart:


Yesterday, price had a correction to the downside but was stopped by the support of the daily 5 SMA.  With the 15 SMA right below the 5 SMA and both are still heading upward in direction, I took today as an opportunity to initiate position looking for trend continuation.

Take a look at the weekly chart:


Price action has taken out both the 79 SMA and the 89 XMA with the 5 and 15 SMAs pointing upward.  There may be a long-term bull run here.

My 2 cents.

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Should you take this $CALL?

I took this $CALL because it broke out of the consolidation range last Friday.  I bought a starter position after it took out the opening range and then added after it was able to maintain above the opening range.

Take a look at the daily chart below:


While Friday was an up day for $CALL, the pause here would be that the price action was hitting against the 79SMA and 89XMA at Friday close.  Noticed that both the 79 and 89 were lumped together on this resistance.  If price action could take out this double MAs resistance, price could rally hard since this one got a high short interest per Yahoo Finance:

Shares Short (as of Sep 30, 2013)3: 4.18M
Short Ratio (as of Sep 30, 2013)3: 22.20
Short % of Float (as of Sep 30, 2013)3: 26.60%

Below is the weekly chart:


Did you see how the weekly price is bouncing off the long-term support line?  Currently, even the weekly chart has a 15 SMA resistance against current price.  So, there exist a possible failure in the rally due to the weekly and daily resistances.  On the other hand, a breakout of these two time-frames resistance could mean a continued rally.

Fundamentally speaking, I use MagicJack myself so I know the benefit directly. I used to have Verizon land-line and the monthly charge to me was an average of $30+ per month.  Now,I pay less than $50 per year!  On top of that, I’ve the benefit of using the land-line number on my Android mobile phone by installing the MagicJack APP so that I can take or make call on my mobile phone on the go.

The convenience and the saving of of having MagicJack is fantastic to me; so I have to assume it applies to whomever use the service as well.  I can see there are other competition to MagicJack but I only know what I’m using.

Anyway, MagicJack expansion to oversees may be the next catalyst for the price rally.

In summary, it depends on how price action behave the coming week against the weekly and daily MAs resistances; if it break out higher, I may add more; and if it fails, I will probably bail out for small losses or small gain.

My 2 cents


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The moment of truth will come upon $AMRN soon

Folks, we are heading into Oct 16th FDA advisory committee meeting.  Place your chips either at the center of the table or put it back into your pocket.  As for myself, I moved a sizable amount into the center.

Well, what cards do I have that I’m willing to risk such amount on this $AMRN bet?  you may wonder.

Here are my cards:

I’ve been taking Vascepa everyday (4 grams a day) since March.  Although I was fearful of the large size of the capsule in the beginning, now I’m looking forward to taking them at meal time.  Believe me when I said it is actually my body that looks forward to taking Vascepa.  Despite its large size, I swallowed the pill as if it was nothing.  It went down my throat smoothly with no reflex of gagging as some might have feared.  I can see that $AMRN is using the best quality capsule to contain the EPA ingredient inside which make it so much easier to swallow.  I had swallowed over-the-counter (OTC) fish oil capsules before and I can tell you the quality of the capsule used by Vascepa is far superior.

Why would my body looked forward to taking the capsules?  I believe because the EPA ingredient in Vascepa is doing something good inside my body.  So far, I’ve no side-effect whatsoever from the months of taking Vascepa.  My latest blood test from my doctor has reflected significant improvement on my trig level.  And I’m feeling fine where my heart is concerned.

Is it psychological that I’m looking forward to taking Vascepa or is it really my body who craves it?  Does it really matter?  When you think about this, you know I will always get my refill.  Imagine all the other people who is taking Vascepa or is going to be taking Vascepa feel the same way that I’m feeling.  Go figure.

Next, why will FDA Advisory committee meeting have anything against a specialized fish-oil with high concentration of EPA that can provide the benefits that over-the-counter fish oil cannot?  Think about this, by taking a favorite stance on Vascepa on the Anchor indication, FDA may be encouraging people to stay away from the OTC fish oils with questionable purity and go for the healthier fish-oil that have been proven in Phase 3 trials with multitude of benefits.

Have you been to Costco lately?  If you wander into the aisle where the Omega-3 fish oils are stocked, you will be surprised how many different brands of Omega-3 are available.  In other words, there are huge demand for Omega-3 fish oil.   Offer these people a prescription grade Omega-3 fish oil with proven benefits and how many do you think will jump over from OTC brands?

There you have it, my fundamental reason for believing $AMRN’s Vascepa will get a nod from the FDA Advisory committee.  If it is good for the population, why withhold it?  It is my opinion that there is simply no risk for the FDA Advisory committee to clear the road for Vascepa.

Now, take a look at the daily chart:


Currently, from the daily chart, price action has cleared all the MAs (5, 15, 79, and 89).  Price action has obviously taken a positive turn and is on the way to take out the recent high at $7.40.

Now, take a look at the weekly chart:


As you can see, the downtrend line has been broken. Price action has taken out the 5 and 15 SMA lines.  There are two overhead resistances from the 79SMA and 89XMA.  With any good news from the FDA, these two resistances will be taken out quite effectively.

Now, stand back and look at both of the charts again, the daily and the weekly.  Did you see the cup and handle pattern being developed?  Does it look like a break out is about to take place?

Am I crazy to bet big on $AMRN?  Maybe I am; but what is the point of not betting big when I “personally” perceive a statistically advantage here?  After all, isn’t why we “speculate” in the stock market?  Searching for a stock with a probability of making a run to the upside?  To me, it is a calculated risk I’m willing to take.

But don’t forget, I’ve been wrong and have taken big losses before; on the other hands, I’ve also made a few successful bets as well.

My 2 cents.

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Why $GALE should be your best friend

I like $GALE.  Besides the potential disruptive biotechnology that can eradicate breast cancer, it is launching the sales of ABSTRAL® (fentanyl) sublingual tablets which are indicated for the management of breakthrough pain in cancer patients 18 years of age and older who are already receiving and who are tolerant to opioid therapy for their underlying persistent cancer pain.

Basically, while we are waiting for the development of their breast cancer treatment to come to fruition, they have the mean to start generating revenues from the specialized painkiller.  This is the kind of painkiller that will provide faster pain relief than the usual opiate drug such as morphine.

I was lucky to sell before the secondary offering and then giving the opportunity to buy them back after the secondary offering.

Sidebar: I’ve learned to take advantage of the opportunity of a dip provided by secondary offering.  If the company has a solid fundamental, secondary offering is an “offering” of an opportunity for investors to either add or buy at a discount.  I had been waiting for a chance to get back on the 3D printer and $SSYS gave me the opportunity with a secondary offering.

Now, I’m waiting for the fundamental to take effect to drive the $GALE back up based on the future revenues of Abstral or the possibility of a take-over.

Take a look at the daily chart below:


There is a breakout to the upside today from the consolidation after the secondary offering.  This signifies that the momentum is still bullish despite a gap-down.  There may be some resistance from here due to the overhang of the 79SAM and 89XMA.  If price can take out these two MAs, then we are heading up.

Take a look at the weekly chart below:


Did you see that the uptrend is still intact?  Did you see the price is bouncing off the 79SMA and 89XMA?  This bounce off is more significant than the short-term daily 79SMA and 89XMA resistance I mentioned earlier from the daily chart.

Now, you know why $GALE should be your best friend, eh?

My 2 cents



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$TTWO takes two punches before speeding ahead

When I found out that $TTWO’s new Grand Theft Auto V (GTAV) game raked in over $1 billions in three days after launching, I was pleasantly surprise to see price actually softened instead of a spike up.  I was pleased because I didn’t have to chase the stock to buy it.

Take a look at the daily chart below:


Did you see how price kept bouncing off the 79SMA as well as the 89XMA?  When both 79SMA and 89XMA are coming close to each other, the support is even more effective per my observation. 

I was able to buy some at low $17.xx before people start to take notice that the revenues stream from GTAV has ONLY just begun (my opinion only of course).  There are still money coming in for the computer PC version that has yet to launch.  There are about 136 million units of current consoles of XBox 360 (59.4 million) and Playstation 3 (77 million) out there with only a little over 12% of these console owners who have already bought the GTAV (based on $1 billion dollars sales divided by $59.99 retail price).  With word-of-mouth going on how great the game is, I’m betting another 7-8% of the uncommitted console owners will eventually buy the game between now and X’mas time.

I’m not so sure about the sales on the new consoles XBox One and Playstation 4 since $TTWO’s Rockstar has not announced any plans to develop the game to support the new consoles.  But the lack of sales on these new consoles can be made up by the revenues stream from the online version of GTAV which will be launching in October.

Take a look at the monthly chart below:


From the monthly chart, you can see that there is a breakout from May 2011 high.  Remember, the longer the time-frame (monthly in this case), the more prominent is the breakout.

Can $TTWO restores its former glory by retaking $27.95 achieved back in 2008?  If the money keeps on dropping by $TTWO door with continuing sales of GTAV, I believe it can.

In other words, selling on news may be premature due to $TTWO surprisingly strong sales on its new GTAV game.

My 2 cents.


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Don’t underestimate the services offered by $CERS

I’ve been accumulating $CERS again recently after a rough start earlier in the year.  This time, I think I will just hold it for the fundamental reason that, in my opinion, the services offer by $CERS’ products may become a standard requirement for all blood banks in the future.

Why not?

As our population grows, it increases the need for more blood in the blood banks.  By utilizing $CERS products, blood banks can eliminate the risk of contaminated blood.

It is this simple.

European countries are already using $CERS’ products.  Cerus is now waiting for FDA to approve the use of its product in the US.  What is the odd of FDA disapproving it when the products have already been in use by other countries?

In summary, there is a large market in the US for Cerus to tap into once FDA gives its nod.  Thus, the risk in this play is really the decision of the FDA.  Oh wait, this is nothing new here in the land of biotech…

But then I’m willing to wager that the FDA approval of Cerus product is as “fill in the blank” as approving $AMRN for their mid-trig (200-500) level use.

Now you see why I’m betting on this one, eh?

Take a look at the monthly chart below.  I like to see the $10 target reach in the early 2014 if not sooner.


Today price action took out $6 resistance; naturally, I added a bit more because of this breakout.

My 2 cents.

Below is information from $CERS website on how its product works:


The INTERCEPT Blood System for platelets and plasma employs the unique properties of our amotosalen HCl molecule to block the replication of DNA and RNA, preventing the proliferation of susceptible pathogens. For red blood cell pathogen inactivation, a similar treatment process has been developed using a different molecule called S-303.

Platelets and red blood cells are not inactivated by the crosslinking process because they do not require nucleic acids to function.  Plasma is not inactivated by the treatment because it is an acellular product (proteins and liquid).

Controlled Reaction
The interactions of amotosalen and S-303 with DNA and RNA are highly specific and occur with high frequency even at low concentrations of nucleic acids (Fig.1).  Once inside a pathogen, the compounds dock in between the nucleic acid base pairs.  Upon illumination with ultraviolet A light (amotosalen) or a change in pH (S-303), an interstrand crosslink is formed, “locking” the DNA or RNA together so that it can no longer replicate.  These reactions require UVA light or pH change, and will not continue in the absence of these conditions.

 Figure 1 

Broad Spectrum of Inactivation

The crosslinking activity of amotosalen and S-303 is not limited to particular nucleic acid sequences or specific families of pathogens, so unlike testing procedures this blood safety method does not rely upon advance identification of potentially harmful organisms. The replication of a broad spectrum of viruses, bacteria and parasites, as well as leukocytes, can be inactivated with these treatment processes.

– See more at: http://www.cerus.com/Products/how-intercept-works2/default.aspx#sthash.66Z5KwFt.dpuf

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