Home / 2013 / June

Monthly Archives: June 2013

Can $LYV keep the party going?

What do young people do when they don’t want to stay at home?  Go to the movie?  What do you do after two hours?  It comes to my attention that these young people like to go to concerts- lot of them.  And this is where $LYV (Live Nation Entertainment) comes in.

With more and more children come of age to become teenagers and 20+ young adults looking to get out of the house, concert businesses are expanding.  You can see the trend picking on $LYV from the monthly chart below.


Keep an eye on the resistance at $16.90 – $18 level; if price action can take out these long-time resistance, price may not look back.

Needless to say, I bought some $LYV and added more today with the expectation that price action would break out of the $17 -$18 resistance.  Time will tell.

My 2 cents.

Comments »

The wakening of $LRAD

For those who has followed my blog, you know that $LRAD is my second largest position in my portfolio.  After months of waiting, I believe my patience is finally paying off.

Today price action reflect a big up day with high volume.  Since I’m holding this for long term, I like to think that today action is just the beginning.  Future catalysts for more higher prices can be the “winning” of contract order from US Army, foreign sales to China (don’t you think China will need this technology to address their massive population?) and other countries who will soon find usefulness for LRAD technology.

The multi-charts below give you a better feel for the overall picture.


My 2 cents.

Comments »

Is $DNDN finding its bottom?

I like to bet that it is by buying some today.

Take a look at the weekly chart below.


Did you see how the price level find support at $3.81 area for the last five weeks?  I also like the long-tail 15m chart where price has traded back up to $4.00 level.  A daily doji bar for now could also be a positive sign for a neutral ground before heading back up (or down).

A stop below $3.80 for a stop will yield a good low risk trade with high reward if this is the bottom.

My 2 cents.

Comments »

Something is cooking at $PACB

Can you see the daily subtle buying interest in $PACB for the last 3 weeks?  The monthly, weekly, daily, hourly, and 15m charts all reflect an upward trend.  I fathom that something must be cooking inside $PACB that is smelling good; therefore, I’ve bought position in $PACB today even though price has been up quite a bit recently.

See below multi-charts window:


My 2 cents.

Comments »

Zen seeks $YNDX for info

I bought $YNDX for a bounce to take out previous high of $29.48.  I believe $YNDX is the Russian $BIDU in the making.

Take a look at the weekly chart below:


All it takes is for $YNDX to take out the recent high and it would automatically break out of the resistance that has been around since October 2011.  Did you see the April 26 weekly bar?  The one with the bad ass long green bar?  That was the tell tale sign.  I may sit on this one for long-term.

My 2 cents.

Comments »

Zen sees $TSLA has been recharged

Ok, one has to recognize strength when one sees it in action.  Despite a heavy 200+ down day on the DOW, $TSLA has managed to bounce back from the low and peek its head above water.  Normally, in my book, a stock with a parabolic run “should” correct severely on a big DOW down day.  Nope, not $TSLA.

Take a look at today beautiful “T” shape candlestick bar in the daily chart below:


I bought June 21st $90 call option to go long.

My 2 cents.

Comments »

Zen hunts $BIOD for better insulin

Truth be told, I got shaken out of $MNKD from $5+ awhile back and missed the run to $7+.  I would not want to chase $MNKD at this level; but I see an opportunity with $BIOD which market cap is only 3% of $MNKD ($60 mil vs $2 bil).  Ok, $MNKD insulin delivery system is probably more preferably than needle but $BIOD new phase II mealtime insulin is supposed to be better than currently available mealtime insulin, so they say.  Top line result from phase II trial is expected to release around September this year; so I like to see a summer run to a possible $10+.

I build a position today @ low $4.00 to take advantage of today correction.

This is a super low float company so I expect a lot of volatility; so it is not for the faint of heart.

Take a look at the chart below:


The only technical support I see here is the 38.2% retracement which today low has bounced off from.

Btw, I can’t help but feel that the money flow has recently been flowing toward anything related to diabetes medicine.  My position on $TINY is getting a good rally probably due to its recent announcement that one of its start-up investment, Metabolon, has launched a diagnostic Test based on Metabolon’s Quantose(TM) Insulin Resistance Markers.

I’m afraid with the amount of sugar our nation is consuming, diabetes health issue is becoming more prominent.

My 2 cents.

Comments »

Zen sees possible “real” bullish harami in $DUST

Apparently, the bullish harami continuation pattern on my $NUGT wasn’t doing too well today.  I gave back all paper gain from yesterday and took a tiny losses for the work.  I also took a small losses on $ABX as well.

Not to be discouraged, $DUST now shows a possible bullish harami “at the bottom” of the trend with supports on the two moving averages lines.  Of course, the bullish harami will have to be confirmed tomorrow with price action taking out today close.


I bought $DUST this morning looking to see if this bet will pay off tomorrow.

My 2 cents.

Comments »

Zen sees bullish Harami continuation pattern for golden $NUGT

Usually, a bullish Harami happens at the bottom of the trend to signify a bullish reversal.  In this case, a breakout of the Friday inside bar to the upside that takes out the previous high two trading days ago reflects a bullish continuation pattern.  Since it has taken out the inside bar from Friday, I will call the candlestick pattern “the bullish Harami continuation pattern”.   Don’t bother to google it; there is no such thing.  I just make it up.  Whatever works for me, eh? (grin).

Take a look at the daily chart below.  I believe gold minings and gold is heading up.


I like to see price action takes out the recent pivot high at $13.54 established in May 9th.

Yes, I bought back $NUGT and $ABX this morning.

My 2 cents.

Comments »

Where Ego Dares #8: Position Size

Last time I talked about tilting and its severe effect on our trading mind.  While being wrong can stir our sensitive ego into an excited mode; there is nothing more inciting to tilting than a position size that is larger than you can handle.

And I’m not talking about the size of your wallet.  Sure, you can have a huge wallet but your mind may not be able to handle the psychological effect of the losses due to your position being too large.  What most people forget is that the size, like leverage, cut both way.

With a position size larger than you can handle, a small negative turn of the stock can appear to be quite large and uncomfortable to you in term of the losses or profit give-back you are witnessing.  Sure, it all looks good when the stock is heading in your favor; who doesn’t like to see the profit multiply in spade?  But the moment price action turns the wrong way and you don’t act fast enough, you will not only give back your profit, you will lose more than you are prepared for if you don’t have a hard stop to protect yourself.

The problem here is that the moment your trade has done well on the get go; most people cannot handle the give-back of the profit when the stock corrects.  They are seeing green, why should they close out their position to cut losses or break even when there is still possibility of green later on?

Mentally, it is much harder to take a small losses when you have already seen paper profit earlier.  There are two things working against you:

  1. You regret not taking your profit when you think you should
  2. You don’t like to take losses in such large amount (due to your over-sizing position) even though the stock only corrects within the daily ATR (average true range).

The first item is usually the most common and the remorse can be quite debilitating to your mental stage; sometimes to the point of impairing your normal trading process.

The second item above compounds to your mental stage from the remorse and may push you to tilting if you do not act to stop the bleeding when price continues to go against your position.

Over-sizing in your position can blind you to the true direction of the price-action.  By being more fearful when you normally would not when you are holding a normal size position, your emotion causes you to lose the objective observation of the price action.  You start to see thing that isn’t there.

From my experience on the SP500 trade I discussed last time, when I saw the losses that was six times more than my morning win, I couldn’t handle that sudden turn of event so I tried to double-down to make it right.  The interesting thing was that, hindsightwise, I was correct all along in the overall direction of the SP500 trade.  I was just wrong on the extent of the retracement.  If I had given my position more “room” to breath with a 2% maximum stop loss from my original size, I would have made a killing by the end of the day.  But my doubling down after seeing my third trade turned into a losses exceeded my comfort zone in the position size department, I lost my objective perspective of the price action.  Not only did I lost perspective, I lost my ability to apply money management by cutting my losses before it got me to tilt.  If I had just walked away from the losses even though it was six times my first win, it would still be a manageable losses.  Perhaps a 3% of the portfolio instead of 15% I ended up with.

But it is easy said than done when you see unexpected losses due to fast market or your hesitation to act that are larger than the normal losses you allow yourself.  If you happen to have a large position size when the sudden turn of event happens, you are one step away from tilting.

After I took my volunteered hiatus from trading to find myself, I realized that in order to play this market to win, I need to be honest with my strengths and weaknesses.

I see my strengths as:

  • being quick to act
  • finding stocks that fit my trading style

I see my weaknesses as:

  • susceptible to tilting
  • easily spook

So when I came back to trade, I began to tailor my trading style according to my strengths and weaknesses.  Knowing that I am susceptible to tilting, I swear off averaging down when I’m losing.  Knowing that I’m easily spooked, I will cut my losses quickly by taking advantage of my strength to act quickly.

I also started to build up my tolerance for position size.  In other words, I would start small and then build up the size in incremental level over a period of time so that when I was losing; it would not affect my objective observation.

Remember, position size is a very personal matter so you have to be truthful to yourself.  DO NOT ever compare your position size to anyone else.  What is big to me may be peanut to someone else and vice versa.

You have to find an optimal position size that will allow you to see the truth of the price action even though you are sitting on a loss.  Trust me, in time, your optimal position size will increase as you start to bank coin following your successful trading system.

For those who have been reading my ego series, you know there is a catch.

What is the catch?

Before you even get to the issue of finding your optimal position size for your trade, you need to do the following:

  • master your thought process to develop your trading mind
  • master your focus to help your trading mind overcomes your natural mind
  • master your chart reading skills with the technical tools that fit your trading style
  • understand your strengths and weaknesses so you can form a trading style that increase your ability to trade successfully

Only after you are proficient in the above steps do you even have to worry about your optimal position size.  In the meantime, trade small until you get the hang of it.  Otherwise, you may become another number that support the statistic that only a few percentages of the trader can ever win consistently in the market.

This is my final post on the Where Ego Dares series.

Ain’t you forgetting something?

Oh, you mean how can I forget to talk about greed when we are dealing with the subject of ego?

I’ve already discussed greed in my prior post so it will be redundant if I bring it up here again.  Please click here to re-read it if you want.

Hope you all enjoy it.

My 2 cents.

Comments »