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Trading Ideas

My take: we are going up!

Am I the only one seeing this?  Take a look at the SPY daily chart below:


While the day is not over yet, but the up bar today is telling me that the market wants to go back up.  Notice that price action for the last three days stays above the breakout line.  As far as I’m concerned, the uptrend line from Nov-16 low is still strongly intact.

I’m currently long AMRN, LRAD, SZYM, GLOG, USU, UCO, EMAN, NOK, RIMM, WPRT, ES, & 18% cash.

Trade well!

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Profit-taking day

I sold my NOK position today to lock in profit.  Although I tried to daytrade afterward to see if I could capture the upward momentum if it continued.  I was stopped out and the daily chart was reflecting a doji which I was not excited to see.

Below is the daily NOK chart:


Potentially, today doji bar could become an island reversal pattern or an evening star reversal pattern.  I, for one, am not going to wait around to see if that is the case.  Thus, I’ve no problem locking in my profit and see where the wind blows tomorrow.

I also bought SSYS in the morning but decided to lock in profit due to a strong upward thrust all day.  Both DDD & SSYS are in the 2nd strong up bar and I do not want to sit through a correction tomorrow.  The thing about DDD & SSYS is that their volatility is legendary.  The speed of a reversal (up or down) is very FAST.  Hence, I’ve no problem again to lock in profit and see where the wind blows tomorrow as well.

Below is the 5 min. SSYS chart:


So far, a positive trading day today!

I’m now holding AMRN, LRAD, SZYM, GLOG, USU, EMAN, ES & 39% cash.

Yes, albeit my drawdown on AMRN, LRAD, & USU (all position play), I’m always striving to gain profit by swing-trading.

You can always see my trading activities here @followtheprice

Trade well!

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BREAKING: NOK Ascending Triangle Breakout Confirmed

“Wait a minute!” you said, “the day is not over yet!”

OK, I jumped the gun to declare a confirmed breakout.  Look at the daily chart below, do you see a strong breakout?


I don’t see how it will collapse by end of day.  There is strong support @ $4.00. Needless to day, I bought more today (once before the breakout and another batch after the breakout).  Now my position on NOK is full size. You can see my daily trading activities here @followtheprice

Below are my previous posts supporting NOK being a breakout target.

NOK- Imminent Ascending Triangle breakout?

Comeback story- Nokia

Trade well!

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NOK- Imminent Ascending Triangle breakout?

Alert! Alert! Possible breakout from NOK.  We are looking at a possible ascending triangle (continuation) breakout pattern.  Prices had been meandering around the $3.85-$3.88 area for the last half-hour and as an observer, I say it really wants to go up to take out the $3.90.

Will NOK be able to do that?  My bet is that we will see the breakout today.  Behold the price action when it does.

Below is the NOK daily chart about 5 minutes ago:


Below is the NOK weekly chart:


By looking at the charts, you can see where I’m coming from.

I bought back in @ $3.87.  Even though I dumped it yesterday, I’ve no qualm buying it back at higher price as long as I see a momentum for the upswing.  It is all about price action; not about where I’ve bought and sold before.

Trade well!

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The dreaded evening star at the Fib 61.8% resistance point

Oh no! Evening star at resistance point!  Run! Run! The sky is falling!

Ok, I may have exaggerated a bit on the “run, run” side of it; but seriously, you have to be cautious and on guard when you see this pattern at a key Fib resistance point.

Yesterday, I postulated that we could either have a breakout day or Fib resistance day.  Although I was leaning on the breakout day, hence my moving more cash to stock, the market showed its hand by not only confirming a resistance day but also giving us an evening star reversal pattern to boost.

Take a look at the SPY daily chart below:


Did you see how today price closed below the 61.8% retracement?  Now, just because we have an evening star candlestick pattern doesn’t mean we are going down for sure tomorrow; but it does mean the probability of a down day is high.

The only good thing I see in the chart that “may” stop the down slide tomorrow is the support of the blue 79 simple moving average line.  If that support line holds, we may have a failed reversal.  On the other hand, the market could easily slice through the line like hot knife to warm butter.

In summary, tomorrow is cautious day.

Today, I got busy again.  Yesterday I got busy buying up stocks for possible breakout; today I got busy unloading stocks because I couldn’t find the breakout.  I dumped NOK (why did I choose NOK over RIMM when RIMM had been so good to me in Nov?), EXK, WPRT and reduced position size on GLOG & SZYM.  I sold DDD & SSYS for profit in the morning but ended up buying back DDD by end of trading day.

I also bought my way back in RIMM during the day so I could have an open position for possible more run on it.  I traded RIMM during the day and was able squeeze into a position with a net profit to cushion tomorrow price action.  You can see my daily trading activities here @followtheprice.

For those who are keeping track, AMRN & LRAD continues to drag my portfolio down.  Since these are position play, I usually ignore them during the day so they don’t interfere with my daily trading activities.

Now, I am holding only AMRN, LRAD, RIMM, USU, SZYM, DDD, EMAN, GLOG & 33% cash.

Depending on tomorrow price action, I may continue to raise cash as I see fit.

Trade well!

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Breaking out to the upside or resistance to the Fib 61.8% retracement?

Despite the mediocre rally today;  the SPY chart is showing a possible breakout to the upside from the 61.8% retracement of the previous leg of downtrend.

Take a look at the daily SPY chart below:


Do you see how the momentum indicator lines at the bottom reflecting a mini-uptrend while the daily chart clocks a new high?  Although the current price is now trading below the breakout line (Nov 2nd high); the overall mini-uptrend from Nov 16th is still intact as far as I’m concerned.

All we need now is the money flow to kick start the breakout run.  However, we are not totally out of the wood yet; the 61.8% Fib retracement is right around the corner so a falling-off the cliff can happen tomorrow or Friday.

I got busy today.  I moved more cash into the market by buying more EXK, SSYS, and EMAN.  I also initiated position on WPRT and GLOG. (I’m now tweeting my daily trading activities here @followtheprice instead of at the comment area in my iBankCoin blog post; follow me if you are interested).

I’m now holding AMRN, LRAD, SSYS, SZYM, EXK, DDD, USU, NOK, EMAN GLOG, WPRT & 16% cash.

How we trade tomorrow and Friday may determine whether the 61.8% Fib retracement resistance will hold or not.

Good luck and trade well!

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Monday 12-10-2012 update

Regarding NOK, I sold half of my position size in the morning to cut losses  and to reduce risk.  I wanted to see how the price action settled in during the day.

After price started to hang around the $3.65- 3.68 level, I bought most of what I sold back in the latter half of the day.  I now hold about 70% of my intended position size.

Take a look at the Daily and Weekly NOK charts below:

Did you see how the bar look almost like a hammer?  I like the fact that it leaves a long tail behind.  Potentially, the price may want to go back up.  Hence, my buying back the shares I sold this morning.  For all intent and purpose, despite today down day, I believe the short-term trend is still up.

Now, look at the weekly NOK chart below:

Today bar did not cut through 50% of last week bar; that was a good sign for me.  Just from eye-balling the chart, it does look like the uptrend is still intact.

Now, you know the reason I bought back my NOK shares.

Below is the EXK daily chart:

You see how the green up bar today formed a small V to create a pivot low from last Friday low bar?  This pivot low is higher than the pivot low created back in November 15th.  I like to see prices take out the last Monday high of $8.73 to confirm last Friday low as pivot “higher” low.  To me, this is a low risk trade because my stop level will be either last Friday low or Nov. 15th low.  Hence, I bought a medium size position on EXK today.

Meanwhile, I’m still smarting from the drawdown due to courtesy of AMRN LRAD & USU.  I’m not too worry though.  You know why?  Because I know trading BIOTECH is not only heart wrenching sometimes but it can also be heart-warming at times.  Take a look at the CLDX chart today (see below).  I traded and profited from CLDX in the past but did not trade it this time due to my commitment to AMRN.  Hey, one BIOTECH commitment is plenty here.

Did you see the spike up today?  Wow!  That is what I like to see happening in AMRN.



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Comeback story- Nokia

So far, Nokia & Microsoft Windows phone 8 have jumped on broad the China train:

1) Nokia Partners with China Mobile to Launch the Lumia 920T, the First TD-SCDMA Windows Phone

2) China Unicom, Microsoft Forge Alliance To Boost Windows Phone Sales In China

3) Nokia Lumia 800c in second spot on China Telecom’s sales chart

Excerpt from China Unicom news:

China is a strong area for Nokia, which is the biggest single-country for sales of Lumia devices. In fact, Nokia recently released the first ever Windows Phone 8 handset in China with the Lumia 920T, however that device went to China Mobile, China Unicom’s fiercest rival.”

Now, take a look at the table below:

Source: China to hit 1B mobile subs next year

Based on the three news items above, Nokia is in a position to grasp some of the one billions subscribers.  Now, you tell me, do we have a catalyst for a runner or not?

Look at the daily and weekly charts below:

Daily NOK chart:

Do you see a prospective runner in the chart?

Now take a look at the weekly chart below:

Do you see the basing of the bottom?  Do you see how much more room this stock can run?

Houston, NOK is ready to take off!

Oh yeah, I’ve bought 3/4 size position and will add to full -size position if NOK takes out the previous 3 days high of $3.90 this coming week.

Good Hunting!

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Punch in the face (Le Fly style)

Pow! AMRN threw me a sucker punch and I caught it when I wasn’t looking. I was looking at my ticker yesterday after the closing bell had rung and I saw prices printing below $10 buck. At first, I thought I was looking at another symbol that was printing $9+ on average; but when I realized I was looking at AMRN. The punch caused me to utter, “You’ve got to be kidding!” Despite my usual expression of profanity when describing an emotional outburst in my past posts, I’m actually pretty “clean” in my day-to-day expression even when I’m upset. Yes, I am merely trying to emulate YOUR emotional expression in an emotion settings in my blog posts whenever I’m expressing profanity. (grin)

I checked the news and found out AMRN decided to go solo and got a $100 million loan to do so.

Now, I do have this possible scenario factored into my risk assessment; so it is not an unexpected punch on the face like you normally get from your mistress/girlfriend/wife in that order. The way I see this scenario, AMRN is only doing what a tough negotiator is expected to do- you show your tough stance by your ability to walk away from the deal.

“You don’t wanna pay the price I think is fair. Fine, I can do it myself and probably make even more money doing so. Bye bye!”

“I know you’re bluffing” the prospective buyer countered.

“Watch me!”

Now, we are watching the action being taken by AMRN.

In a nutshell, I’m in AMRN for the success of their magic fish-oil pill. So, I’m hanging to my dear shares. And yes, I’m NOT AVERAGING down here. You see, by not averaging down ever, I know my EXACT risk at all time. I know what my maximum loss is going to be on the get go and therefore I never lose sleep on any drawdown I’m going through.

On the other hand, if I’m averaging down for every price decline, I’ll be a nervous wreck by now because my risk will have ballooned to the level that I do not expect or anticipate. Now you know why I don’t average down.

Trade well!


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The gift of an AAPL?

I was surprised at the harsh downdraft of AAPL today; you don’t get to see a 4-5% drop of AAPL on a regular basis.  Now with most of the trading day almost over, I see AAPL is forming a minor V shape on a 5 minutes chart.

Knowing where I put my stop, which will provide me a low-risk swing trade, allows me to execute this trade easily.  Of course, there is a good chance I’ll get stop out but it is the idea of a low-risk trade that make the trade easy to execute.

Below is the 5 minutes AAPL chart:

If I don’t get stop out today, I’ll ride this trade to tomorrow.

Trade well.

Edit:  Just got stop-out for small losses.  This trade is OVER.  I will not try to find another bottom to catch.  The fact that it  also took out intra-day low does not bode well for AAPL.



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