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Trading Ideas

Let’s Face it, this Book is EXPENSIVE!

With such lofty valuation even after a heavy haircut from the last 2 weeks, I think FB is still over-price giving current economic environment.   FB already announced reduced revenues forecast right before IPO; now if we are heading toward another recession (or is it deflation?), where do you think the advertising dollars are going to go?

Google advertising business model is far superior than FB ’cause people who searched for items have high probability of buying the items they are searching for.  Meanwhile, ad popping on FB while people just wanted to chat with their buddies are annoying, especially when those ad is designed with attention grasping “LOOK AT ME!” graphic artworks.

With such poor fundamental support (my opinion), I don’t see any counter-force movement to stop this waterfall price-action any time soon.

Therefore, albeit a bit late, I’m shorting FB by buying the July 28 Put options.

In case I’m wrong (which happen often), I will close my put option if price action exceeds yesterday high.

Good Hunting!


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Today menu- Bullish ham…

Ooop!  I meant Bullish Hammer.

The bullish hammer candlestick bar (see below daily chart) is an encouraging sign for a possible cessation of the current downdraft.  Moving cash into equities to take advantage of the current corrections of DDD and  SSYS to rebuild my positions for the 3D printer hunt.   I also bought some SZYM to rebuild position for this one as well.   Still holding 60% cash.

Good Hunting!


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Can this jumping bean eMan up?

Did you see what I’m seeing in the weekly EMAN chart below?

I’m “betting” that this little guy is going to go bronco crazy and jump over the fence in no time.

I like the story behind this guy because of their introduction of the world’s highest resolution, full color microdisplay.  This new gadget will be introduced at next week’s Society for Information Display (SID) conference.  Hopefully, it may sparks interest by then.

Btw, what do you think of the idea of “mobile” home theater?

“I want one! I want one!”

Yes, I bought some starter position here.   Oh, this is NOT an advice to buy.  This little guy has small float and is thinly traded; hence the ability to jump like a madman- up OR down…

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Tag you’re it!

So go the SPY mid-Keltner band being tagged by today up bar.  Now, will price go the other way to avoid being tag.

As of now, price action is still below the mid-Keltner line.

Below daily chart show the SDS mid-Keltner band being tagged and now price is running back to the upside.  Btw, SDS is the 2x inversion of SPY.  Notice that the mid-Keltner band is also close to the Fib retracement of 38.2%.  To me; that is a double confirmation of support.   Yes, I’m long SDS at current price action with a stop at a bit below today low.

Below is the SPY daily chart

Good Hunting!


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Still on track to Mt. Fifth (more muddy road ahead though…)

Despite the muddy road today, the mule wagon (of equities) was able to gain an inch.  Until the day comes when the mud disappear, I’m afraid there will be more hardship ahead trekking thru the wetland of Mt. Fifth.

Because I was giving the opportunity, I unloaded my baggage (now holding 80% cash) without injury and took to the tree to wait for sunny day.   Oh you can call me anything you want; but you ain’t gonna make me walk thru the messy wetland when there is a chance of quicksand awaiting to swallow you whole.

Yes, safety comes first.  Believe me, when the sunny day comes and the wetland becomes dry land with roses lining up the trail, I will be running to the top of Mt. Fifth faster.  Yes, I’ll probably have to pay toll for running on sunny day but I bet I can pick up some gold nuggets along the way.

Regardless, my fellow travelers, I will see you at the top of Mt. Fifth waiting for you with ice-cream in the freezer. 🙂  And travel safe!

The weekly Dow Jones chart below shows that the Feb 2011 support still hold and the reversal green bar actually expanded a bit more!


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Where is wave #5? Time to pull out the Elliott Wave light saber!

For those not familiar with Elliott Wave theory, the simple explanation will be that the Elliott Wave has 5 waves pattern.  As you can see in the weekly Dow Jones chart below, I tried, to the best of my understanding, identify the 5 waves pattern in the trend.  Also, you can see the A-B-C wave patterns right after the 5 waves patterns; these  A-B-C wave patterns are  the corrective patterns.

Now, as of today, my weekly chart shows that the price-action is finding support from the Feb 2011 high.  This support can be significant because it can be used as an “excuse” to spring board the start of wave #5 which can end up where I put the double ?? (my extrapolation only, of course).

Now, if you don’t agree with me; that is your right.  If you want to believe that the market will fall off the cliff, that is certainly your freedom to do so.   Meanwhile, I’m going to see if my thesis will prove to be correct by watching if the weekly bar continues to make new higher high and higher low from here.

Regardless, I will see you at the top of wave #5.  Ice cream will be on me when you get there. 🙂

Again, the above is my opinion only.  Just so you know, I don’t have any “emotional” attachment to my opinion. Meaning that if the market takes a dump tomorrow; I may as well come back with another chart showing why the Dow Jones will be heading down the cliff very soon.  I just need to find another “theory” out there that will support my thesis.  You see, opinion is like a pin holding the onion; the darn opinion (oop! I mean onion) is just too heavy for the little pin to hold it in place!

Good Hunting!



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The dark force has been countered!

Based on the chart below, I’ve to conclude that enough force has stopped the continuing down motion.  If price action can take out the high of yesterday doji candlestick bar, I believe we may find the bottom.   I moved 20% into equities today.  Still have 50% cash.

Good Hunting!


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Eye of the storm

Pardon my pessimistic view; but I believe, today, we are only entering into the “eye of the storm” for the moment.

The woe of Greece is far from over; and we have yet to feel its domino effect that will impact Spain, Italy, and the rest of the financial systems around the globe.   Again, the G man may under-estimate the ramification of Greece failure the way they under-estimated the failure of Lehman Brothers.  Suffice it to say that defensive strategy must be planned ahead such that it can be executed in a moment notice.  If you are overloaded in illiquid position; hedging plan will be your protective shield.

For trading strategy, I will place a buy stop above each SKF daily high.  In other words, if SKF continues to have a lower low and lower high, I will move my buy stop to each day high.  In any event when a surprise news hit the news feed and SKF shoots up; I will get fill and be long SKF even if I’m not looking (or too slow to react).

Also, I may buy some JPM put option giving their current portfolio predicament .

But then again, I may be overly-pessimistic.   Nevertheless, being prepared for the worst case scenario can never be overstated under current financial climax.

Good Hunting!


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Anyone wants to build a Sands castle?

I meant the the castle of Las Vegas Sands.

Weekly chart below shows that LVS downtrend was stopped at 61.8% level (b/w Oct 2011 Low and Apr High).

Yes, it is a Fib retracement  play.

Giving the persistent downtrend for the last 5 weeks, it “may” walk back up to the $60ish level if market condition turns bullish due to 2012 being the Presidential election year…

Bought a starter position here @ $47ish.

Below is the weekly chart

Below is the daily chart.  Notice that stochastic is turning up at this point.

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More gas for my car please! Ooop! I meant compressed natural gas…

Yes, that would be our future car filling up with compressed natural gas which is available in abundance right here in the US.

I bought a starter position in WPRT with stop at yesterday low.  If it proves to find bottom here and take off to the upside, I’ll buy more.

Today news may be the catalyst needed to halt the slide.

Good Hunting!


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