Wacky

Everything seems wacky right now. It could be the fiscal cliff, it could be Europe, it could be the election, it could be what’s happening in Israel, but who knows. What I really don’t get is why is everyone so scared? Late November through December is rally time, and the fiscal cliff doesn’t even start to have an effect until after the new year. AAPL is truly baffling, only trading at roughly 8x earnings but getting smashed lately. Meanwhile FB and FSLR are sitting pretty. I can’t stand AAPL lovers or their products, but I have to think this is an epic buying opportunity going into the holidays, thus I am long.

I’m sitting at 80% cash and looking for opportunities. The key with uncertainty like this is to put money in things you are certain about, and to be mobile in positions with less conviction. I am certain people are going to buy gifts for people this holiday season, I am certain a bunch of rednecks will be buying M&P Shield pistols for their wives and kids, courtesy of your friendly neighborhood SWHC store, and I am certain that GLD is always a safe haven.

Another point to be made is to not try and “force” trades. I’m long over the weekend and this is kind of scary, but my positions are very small. If you don’t want to stress over the weekend, don’t be long. This market wants higher, the problem is the egotistical ass clowns at the trading desks have had their heads smashed in and are now scared, carrying their egos around in coffins. The VIX took a dive and TLT is flat, which would indicate we have the tail winds to rally. I want to say this is true and we’ve reached a bottom but I am not so sure. The real elephant in the room this weekend is going to be the conflict in Gaza. If things escalate treasuries and oil will blow out, smashing equities in their respective faces. Watch and wait.

Here’s my current book, GLD is a safe haven hedge. The rest, except for the FB puts, are ready to get doubled down on, ESPECIALLY EXK.