Did You Take the Solar Bet?

Here I sit, broken hearted

Went long solar

When I should have shorted

Now my book, sits in the red

If my wife founds out

I’ll be dead

That goes out to the two trolling idiots yesterday. Here’s what solar looks like today (the solar I am watching), with the market positive, and decent volume.

FSLR -6.5% (now -7.9% in the short time I was writing this)

TSL -3.64%

LDK -3.03%

Now, STP shot up today too, and seeing as I covered after making ~70% in this name, I am waiting to get back into it.

I might start/add short here, but I want to wait a few more minutes.

solar-power-generator

 

 

Who Wants to Bet Against Den Naesehorn on Solar?

Solar, led by FSLR, is ripping. Have you actually read through their guidance? Almost all of this “positive guidance” is based on changing revenue recognition for one project. Remember accounting 301, PAL?

I will wait in the high grass while all you longs dance and be merry, getting drunk off of your profits. Then I shall unleash my horde of Vikings upon, slaughtering you, taking your profits, and sending Solar back to Hel. Hel will receive you, and put you right to work.

I will be doubling my short in LDK and TSL, and starting a short position in FSLR– when the time is right. I know the time is right when the Odin’s ravens descend, showing me the sign.

I’m your Hucleberry, let’s play.

 

 

Is Icahn a Cheater?

I’m really interested to see if KMPG was giving insider information to Carl “Princeton this, Princeton that” Icahn. He didn’t seem to know anything about the company when he was interviewed, so I don’t think this is some far off conspiracy theory. If he was to get caught, I’m sure one of his underlings will take the blame, and he’ll say that “he didn’t know anything about it.”

If this is the case, we’ll all know the truth, and may Thor’s hammer fall out of the sky and smash his brain in. I have no tolerance for cheaters, especially if they are cheating purely to be bullies. I couldn’t care less about him going to Princeton, especially since he got a degree in worthless Philosophy. Philosophy professors can philosophically kiss my ass, because I don’t want those dirty old beards near my body.

In other news, FSLR is ripping on bullshit news, causing my Chinese solar shorts to squeeze my head within a vise. This is okay, I shall release the pressure by doubling my position, when the the time is right, PAL. LDK TSL

 

Don’t Be a Square Peg in a Square Hole

If you don’t understand the title, please bang your head on the nearest wall, and don’t read the rest of this post. Trust me, it’s a waste of your time.

Two questions I have been receiving lately are as follows:

“Hey dude, I’ve been running religiously since January, but haven’t seen any results in a couple of months.”

“How’s it going man? So I’ve been following XYZ’s trading program/book, and I’m not making any money. I’m actually losing money, what should I do?”

The second is far easier to answer. You can’t force things things to happen, well most of the time. Unless you gave the money to buy a few million shares of something, you’re not really going to make that much of a difference. So the key is to buy stocks with more buyers than sellers, and short the inverse. He didn’t get it.

Look, unless you are going to do a ridiculous amount of research on the fundamentals of a business and its competitors, you need to buy stocks with momentum, and short those whoa re getting kicked in the mouth. I had to learn this the hard way, I’ve shorted plenty of stocks in the middle of a run up, only for them to run higher, and if I’m lucky, break even. I had to learn patience, and now if I am doing a swing trade, I wait for the stock to move first.  Could I make 25% if I’m lucky and pick a top/bottom, sure, but I’d rather take 10% and not risk the loss, PAL.

Now to the first question. I don’t train for aesthetics, my body is pretty, it’s not in perfect proportion, and Marc thinks I have little pale calves. Training for aesthetics just won’t help me reach my goals, but I look better than probably 80% of people out there, a nice side effect of hard work. I know– not think –that the majority of people do not want to work hard to obtain something, and when they do, they usually only want to do it the way the main stream “pros” say to, or whatever their perception is of how to do it.

My friend has been doing nothing but running, saying that he lost 15 lbs in the first 6 weeks, after running 5 days a week. He’s up to 4 miles, 5 days a week, but the weight loss has stopped. He lost weight in his face and arms, but still has a bit of a belly. The first thing I said to him was “do you want a runner’s body?” He didn’t understand, so I explained it to him. Like this:

runners_world_-_march_2011

 

Adding on the fact, that his body would try to keep that fat, because his diet is wrong, and he isn’t building any muscle. “So I’m going to have really skinny arms and small shoulders, but not have s six pack?” Yes, if he continues like this. There’s no one perfect way to do things, the same goes with fitness. Running is just one tool, if that’s all you do, and all your body knows, it is going to adapt to it, and it will just become a normal part of the day.

I’m not bashing skinny runners here, go look at most power lifters, they are square bowling balls. If you want to be great at anything, it takes a balanced approach; fitness, trading, etc. He refuses to join a gym, and I told him it will be almost impossible to reach his goals without doing so. I gave him the best program and diet I could, because well, he lives in Snap City, and is afraid to work hard.

The two biggest things he is doing wrong is running roughly the same route/distance, only running, and eating a huge bowl of Oatmeal first thing in the morning. All of the above effectively shuts your metabolism down completely. I generally don’t eat any carbs until after I am finished working out for the day, or right before a max effort workout.

Want to be a good trader? Diversify, and the same goes for building a good body.

There’s No Swell, Pal

This market is as flat as Deveraux in June. Thus, most of you chose not to paddle out. Trading is thin, Twitter is dead, and CNBC is boring. Will we see a ramp up into the bell, maybe, but that’s doubtful.

I frankly don’t care if the market is “up” or “down” currently, as it’s nothing more than a ruse. The titans are absent, with mere humans– like myself –left to try to find pockets of volume. No thank you, I’ve an empire to build.

Now, please excuse me as I kick P off of a cliff, and watch my book drift in the current less waters.

 

I Can’t Get a Handle on This Market

I don’t know if we trade up or down, I think I would lean more toward the downside, but I can’t be sure.

Where I have the most conviction, is shorting P. Read this post to see why. Otherwise, here are some ways to play an up market, and one that is headed down.

Longs:

LL ILMN OHI BWLD ANF CROX HP BPOP PMT KRC 

Charts here

Shorts:

NSLP DXCM AEGR SUI PFPT APTS FR PODD ROYT MODN

Charts here

Play it smart.

 

 

RECAP: Vikings Episode 5

I was a little mad at History channel in this episode, because they gave away the story, but if you’re haven’t read the Norse Sagas you don’t know. It’s like reading the bible then watching the show, I guess.

It started out so great, with Ragnar challenging the Earl to personal combat. This got into the Earl’s head, and everyone knew it. His wife was scared, and knew what was going to happen. While her daughter had to be a slave to the old dirty man from Sweden.

In a great one-on-one battle Ragnar beat the Earl, and became Earl himself. Shortly thereafter, Ziggy kills the Swedish king. Everyone pledged allegiance to Ragnar and his family, including Rollo. But, Rollo whispers in his ear asking how they will be equal. We all know that Rollo likes Ziggy and her daughter - the widow and daughter of the late Earl. He visits her to let them know they will be okay.

There is a great celebration and one of the Earl’s slaves– who chose to be –is sacrificed to the gods. Her’s and the Earl’s bodies are sent out on a ship and burned. Ragnar denies Ziggy the right to set flame to her late husband’s pyre. There is a great celebration, then the scenes cut through winter.

Once the spring comes Ragnar heads back to England with his usual crew, more ships, and an old Viking that had asked to get the chance to die in combat when he pledged allegiance. We see that King Ælla is preparing for him, though this time Ragnar has more than one ship, and has sailed up the River Thames to the capital of North Umbria.

I was going to give you an overall prediction, but that would give away the story, so all i am going to predict is that Rollo is either married to Ziggy or her daughter.

What the Crystal Ball is Saying About P

I am short P, and today it got pile-driven, to the tune of -7.6%. They have a good balance sheet, but that’s about it. Spotify has made them almost irrelevant, and with iRadio coming from AAPL, well, goodnight.

is like the whiny little rich kid that thinks because they have come up with one decent idea, that they should be given the keys to their dad’s company. They have said multiple times that they cannot make money by streaming music, because of the royalties to be paid to the music industry.

Why would anyone want to invest in a company that says it can’t be profitable, unless the rules are changed? They do not have the clout to change the royalty rates, but I believe AAPL does, and they also have the ability to drop P’s app from the App Store. Remember Google Maps? iRadio is far easier to implement, then map software, no one is going to get hurt if their radio station takes them to “Heavy Metal,” instead of “Metal Drums.”

is going to take a monster hit, and continue down. Then I think YHOO will buy them, but it will be too late. At the same time, Spotify, having real connections with the music industry and Silicon Valley, will “partner” with GOOG. P will be left sucking its thumb, saying “but guys, remember me?”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDkW462K_Bw

Trying to Find The XONE

I don’t know how I feel about this whole 3D printing thing, I want it to succeed, but I feel it’s like Industrial Hemp– an uphill battle. The other thing I am trying to figure out, is this stuff is made out of plastics, polymers, and metal alloys? Why not just use a cast, or a CNC machine? I think that’s the issue here, you already have companies like Dupont, that can do anything with plastics, and every “Hot Rod Shop” has a CNC machine.

I understand these require pouring materials into a mold– that presents challenges for consistency, –and cutting material away from a block of metal like Aluminum, creating waste, but what is the cost to switch? Is it the right thing to do for the environment, in that it wouldn’t require as much mining, but would it not have a negative reaction elsewhere?

Here’s what current printers use, from WikiPedia:

3d printing materials

 

Look at XONE‘s chart, it’s ridiculous, and like a frat boy that does a bunch of blow in Vegas for his friend’s 21st birthday, it gets way up to the top of the world. These longs are on a coke binge, doing shots of cheap tequila, then heading to the nearest bathroom stall for some “key bumps.”

XONEchart

 

You thought you were cool last night, PAL, but you never were. You might have the talent, PAL, but where’s the need? You have to convince the big boys that you belong to be there. All your “profits” are great, but what are you making? How are you changing the world? If you fill some small little niche that makes people’s lives/business processes better, that’s great, but that doesn’t deserve a ~16% surge in one month since your IPO. You’re a short, unless you can prove me otherwise, Friendo-PAL.

Maybe I’m wrong, but I would rather try to get in early with a tight stop, then wait for it to capitulate, and only pick up 5%. I’m short this thing, with a stop at 8% above my cost basis of $31.12– ( $33.06). I think this thing gets kicked down the proverbial stairs, all we need is a little pullback, and it’s gone. Think about when it IPO’d? Right at the end of a record hitting bull run.

I have to read some “sell-side” stuff, and see if “The DR” can help me build a model. I honestly thinks it breaks $30 soon, and wouldn’t be surprised if it tested the 50 day SMA– HOLY SHIT! I just used a technical term –down near $28.70. If it breaks that, and the overall market is pulling back, it’s going down into the $25 range.

Just my opinion.

Potus Kickmeinthe Nuttus

The great and fearless King of The United States has now left  my city, a city he sees as his citadel in the west. I now must venture out into the rainy oil covered streets. I have been running around like a headless chicken on PCP all day, and it doesn’t look to stop, I probably won’t be able to go to the gym, and this makes me angry.

Here’s what I did today:

Sold DDD for a 2.13% loss, so that I could…

Short XONE with a cost basis of $31.12

I will, hopefully, be back right after the close

 

Did You Take the Solar Bet?

Here I sit, broken hearted

Went long solar

When I should have shorted

Now my book, sits in the red

If my wife founds out

I’ll be dead

That goes out to the two trolling idiots yesterday. Here’s what solar looks like today (the solar I am watching), with the market positive, and decent volume.

FSLR -6.5% (now -7.9% in the short time I was writing this)

TSL -3.64%

LDK -3.03%

Now, STP shot up today too, and seeing as I covered after making ~70% in this name, I am waiting to get back into it.

I might start/add short here, but I want to wait a few more minutes.

solar-power-generator

 

 

Who Wants to Bet Against Den Naesehorn on Solar?

Solar, led by FSLR, is ripping. Have you actually read through their guidance? Almost all of this “positive guidance” is based on changing revenue recognition for one project. Remember accounting 301, PAL?

I will wait in the high grass while all you longs dance and be merry, getting drunk off of your profits. Then I shall unleash my horde of Vikings upon, slaughtering you, taking your profits, and sending Solar back to Hel. Hel will receive you, and put you right to work.

I will be doubling my short in LDK and TSL, and starting a short position in FSLR– when the time is right. I know the time is right when the Odin’s ravens descend, showing me the sign.

I’m your Hucleberry, let’s play.

 

 

Is Icahn a Cheater?

I’m really interested to see if KMPG was giving insider information to Carl “Princeton this, Princeton that” Icahn. He didn’t seem to know anything about the company when he was interviewed, so I don’t think this is some far off conspiracy theory. If he was to get caught, I’m sure one of his underlings will take the blame, and he’ll say that “he didn’t know anything about it.”

If this is the case, we’ll all know the truth, and may Thor’s hammer fall out of the sky and smash his brain in. I have no tolerance for cheaters, especially if they are cheating purely to be bullies. I couldn’t care less about him going to Princeton, especially since he got a degree in worthless Philosophy. Philosophy professors can philosophically kiss my ass, because I don’t want those dirty old beards near my body.

In other news, FSLR is ripping on bullshit news, causing my Chinese solar shorts to squeeze my head within a vise. This is okay, I shall release the pressure by doubling my position, when the the time is right, PAL. LDK TSL

 

Don’t Be a Square Peg in a Square Hole

If you don’t understand the title, please bang your head on the nearest wall, and don’t read the rest of this post. Trust me, it’s a waste of your time.

Two questions I have been receiving lately are as follows:

“Hey dude, I’ve been running religiously since January, but haven’t seen any results in a couple of months.”

“How’s it going man? So I’ve been following XYZ’s trading program/book, and I’m not making any money. I’m actually losing money, what should I do?”

The second is far easier to answer. You can’t force things things to happen, well most of the time. Unless you gave the money to buy a few million shares of something, you’re not really going to make that much of a difference. So the key is to buy stocks with more buyers than sellers, and short the inverse. He didn’t get it.

Look, unless you are going to do a ridiculous amount of research on the fundamentals of a business and its competitors, you need to buy stocks with momentum, and short those whoa re getting kicked in the mouth. I had to learn this the hard way, I’ve shorted plenty of stocks in the middle of a run up, only for them to run higher, and if I’m lucky, break even. I had to learn patience, and now if I am doing a swing trade, I wait for the stock to move first.  Could I make 25% if I’m lucky and pick a top/bottom, sure, but I’d rather take 10% and not risk the loss, PAL.

Now to the first question. I don’t train for aesthetics, my body is pretty, it’s not in perfect proportion, and Marc thinks I have little pale calves. Training for aesthetics just won’t help me reach my goals, but I look better than probably 80% of people out there, a nice side effect of hard work. I know– not think –that the majority of people do not want to work hard to obtain something, and when they do, they usually only want to do it the way the main stream “pros” say to, or whatever their perception is of how to do it.

My friend has been doing nothing but running, saying that he lost 15 lbs in the first 6 weeks, after running 5 days a week. He’s up to 4 miles, 5 days a week, but the weight loss has stopped. He lost weight in his face and arms, but still has a bit of a belly. The first thing I said to him was “do you want a runner’s body?” He didn’t understand, so I explained it to him. Like this:

runners_world_-_march_2011

 

Adding on the fact, that his body would try to keep that fat, because his diet is wrong, and he isn’t building any muscle. “So I’m going to have really skinny arms and small shoulders, but not have s six pack?” Yes, if he continues like this. There’s no one perfect way to do things, the same goes with fitness. Running is just one tool, if that’s all you do, and all your body knows, it is going to adapt to it, and it will just become a normal part of the day.

I’m not bashing skinny runners here, go look at most power lifters, they are square bowling balls. If you want to be great at anything, it takes a balanced approach; fitness, trading, etc. He refuses to join a gym, and I told him it will be almost impossible to reach his goals without doing so. I gave him the best program and diet I could, because well, he lives in Snap City, and is afraid to work hard.

The two biggest things he is doing wrong is running roughly the same route/distance, only running, and eating a huge bowl of Oatmeal first thing in the morning. All of the above effectively shuts your metabolism down completely. I generally don’t eat any carbs until after I am finished working out for the day, or right before a max effort workout.

Want to be a good trader? Diversify, and the same goes for building a good body.

There’s No Swell, Pal

This market is as flat as Deveraux in June. Thus, most of you chose not to paddle out. Trading is thin, Twitter is dead, and CNBC is boring. Will we see a ramp up into the bell, maybe, but that’s doubtful.

I frankly don’t care if the market is “up” or “down” currently, as it’s nothing more than a ruse. The titans are absent, with mere humans– like myself –left to try to find pockets of volume. No thank you, I’ve an empire to build.

Now, please excuse me as I kick P off of a cliff, and watch my book drift in the current less waters.

 

I Can’t Get a Handle on This Market

I don’t know if we trade up or down, I think I would lean more toward the downside, but I can’t be sure.

Where I have the most conviction, is shorting P. Read this post to see why. Otherwise, here are some ways to play an up market, and one that is headed down.

Longs:

LL ILMN OHI BWLD ANF CROX HP BPOP PMT KRC 

Charts here

Shorts:

NSLP DXCM AEGR SUI PFPT APTS FR PODD ROYT MODN

Charts here

Play it smart.

 

 

RECAP: Vikings Episode 5

I was a little mad at History channel in this episode, because they gave away the story, but if you’re haven’t read the Norse Sagas you don’t know. It’s like reading the bible then watching the show, I guess.

It started out so great, with Ragnar challenging the Earl to personal combat. This got into the Earl’s head, and everyone knew it. His wife was scared, and knew what was going to happen. While her daughter had to be a slave to the old dirty man from Sweden.

In a great one-on-one battle Ragnar beat the Earl, and became Earl himself. Shortly thereafter, Ziggy kills the Swedish king. Everyone pledged allegiance to Ragnar and his family, including Rollo. But, Rollo whispers in his ear asking how they will be equal. We all know that Rollo likes Ziggy and her daughter - the widow and daughter of the late Earl. He visits her to let them know they will be okay.

There is a great celebration and one of the Earl’s slaves– who chose to be –is sacrificed to the gods. Her’s and the Earl’s bodies are sent out on a ship and burned. Ragnar denies Ziggy the right to set flame to her late husband’s pyre. There is a great celebration, then the scenes cut through winter.

Once the spring comes Ragnar heads back to England with his usual crew, more ships, and an old Viking that had asked to get the chance to die in combat when he pledged allegiance. We see that King Ælla is preparing for him, though this time Ragnar has more than one ship, and has sailed up the River Thames to the capital of North Umbria.

I was going to give you an overall prediction, but that would give away the story, so all i am going to predict is that Rollo is either married to Ziggy or her daughter.

What the Crystal Ball is Saying About P

I am short P, and today it got pile-driven, to the tune of -7.6%. They have a good balance sheet, but that’s about it. Spotify has made them almost irrelevant, and with iRadio coming from AAPL, well, goodnight.

is like the whiny little rich kid that thinks because they have come up with one decent idea, that they should be given the keys to their dad’s company. They have said multiple times that they cannot make money by streaming music, because of the royalties to be paid to the music industry.

Why would anyone want to invest in a company that says it can’t be profitable, unless the rules are changed? They do not have the clout to change the royalty rates, but I believe AAPL does, and they also have the ability to drop P’s app from the App Store. Remember Google Maps? iRadio is far easier to implement, then map software, no one is going to get hurt if their radio station takes them to “Heavy Metal,” instead of “Metal Drums.”

is going to take a monster hit, and continue down. Then I think YHOO will buy them, but it will be too late. At the same time, Spotify, having real connections with the music industry and Silicon Valley, will “partner” with GOOG. P will be left sucking its thumb, saying “but guys, remember me?”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDkW462K_Bw

Trying to Find The XONE

I don’t know how I feel about this whole 3D printing thing, I want it to succeed, but I feel it’s like Industrial Hemp– an uphill battle. The other thing I am trying to figure out, is this stuff is made out of plastics, polymers, and metal alloys? Why not just use a cast, or a CNC machine? I think that’s the issue here, you already have companies like Dupont, that can do anything with plastics, and every “Hot Rod Shop” has a CNC machine.

I understand these require pouring materials into a mold– that presents challenges for consistency, –and cutting material away from a block of metal like Aluminum, creating waste, but what is the cost to switch? Is it the right thing to do for the environment, in that it wouldn’t require as much mining, but would it not have a negative reaction elsewhere?

Here’s what current printers use, from WikiPedia:

3d printing materials

 

Look at XONE‘s chart, it’s ridiculous, and like a frat boy that does a bunch of blow in Vegas for his friend’s 21st birthday, it gets way up to the top of the world. These longs are on a coke binge, doing shots of cheap tequila, then heading to the nearest bathroom stall for some “key bumps.”

XONEchart

 

You thought you were cool last night, PAL, but you never were. You might have the talent, PAL, but where’s the need? You have to convince the big boys that you belong to be there. All your “profits” are great, but what are you making? How are you changing the world? If you fill some small little niche that makes people’s lives/business processes better, that’s great, but that doesn’t deserve a ~16% surge in one month since your IPO. You’re a short, unless you can prove me otherwise, Friendo-PAL.

Maybe I’m wrong, but I would rather try to get in early with a tight stop, then wait for it to capitulate, and only pick up 5%. I’m short this thing, with a stop at 8% above my cost basis of $31.12– ( $33.06). I think this thing gets kicked down the proverbial stairs, all we need is a little pullback, and it’s gone. Think about when it IPO’d? Right at the end of a record hitting bull run.

I have to read some “sell-side” stuff, and see if “The DR” can help me build a model. I honestly thinks it breaks $30 soon, and wouldn’t be surprised if it tested the 50 day SMA– HOLY SHIT! I just used a technical term –down near $28.70. If it breaks that, and the overall market is pulling back, it’s going down into the $25 range.

Just my opinion.

Potus Kickmeinthe Nuttus

The great and fearless King of The United States has now left  my city, a city he sees as his citadel in the west. I now must venture out into the rainy oil covered streets. I have been running around like a headless chicken on PCP all day, and it doesn’t look to stop, I probably won’t be able to go to the gym, and this makes me angry.

Here’s what I did today:

Sold DDD for a 2.13% loss, so that I could…

Short XONE with a cost basis of $31.12

I will, hopefully, be back right after the close

 

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