SRS & FXP here.
I’ve been highlighting the two all week, they still look good, even with new money.
S&P 500 Update:
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RC, I’ve been leveraged short since last week, and trying to figure out when to leverage out. We’ve got to have an Obama Rally regardless of the coming of the apocalypse right.
XOM finally cracked, BIDU shit all over itself, FXP running. Video watchlist was a huge success.
Post Update:
S&P technical update
Thanks man.
Nice call
you’ve been dead on this week. thanks for posting the watchlist/updates
Yep, great call. But having been burned on these before, I sold my SRS yesterday. You know, ’cause it’s CRAZY to hold them overnight down here.
Not gonna say “fuck” or anything immature.
Very nice. I loaded some FXP on Monday, as a hedge, for the same reason I got EEV and SRS the week before – they had seemed laggards.
I don’t think FXP will lag much, but I’m keeping a tight leash, as I don’t like how these things melt away.
A week like this only strengthens my conviction in technical analysis. With hedge funds firmly controlling the velocity of day to day trading, fundamental research doesn’t matter nearly as much as it used to. This ridiculous volatility (see VIX) means there is MUCH less discipline and conviction in the markets nowadays. Therefore we need the discipline of T.A. (not to mention RC himself 🙂 ) to keep us from going insolvent.
Of course, one day fundamentals will matter again (my guess late 2009) but we will only know once we’ve checked the charts and listened to the “message of the market.”
Thx RC!!!
Pat-
There are more than one way to skin a cat. I have had good success with using very little TA. It is just a matter of what works for the individual. I agree that fundamental analysis is a waste of time right now, but TA has its limitations as well.
Case in point- RC entered a long trade on AAPL a few days ago when it was at $89 (or so). I didn’t do any TA on it, but I posted that with Intel pre-announcing for the 2nd time in one quarter (Bad for Macs) and Best Buy adjusting already horrid numbers down then how could AAPL be a buy even in the short term? It was a short. Hence it is now down to the $85 area.
Note- this is NOT a knock on RC because I have tremendous respect for his willingness to go public with his trades. I have plenty of shower shitting incidents that I am glad aren’t posted on this site. My only point is that the “big picture” works better for me than a chart.
Fox-
Good example with AAPL and I agree that there is no holy grail to banking coin (besides the IBC site 🙂 ).
I am heavily employing T.A. right now because the “Big picture” is so skewed in favor of the bears that ALL rallies must be ultimately sold. Nevertheless, these rallies and failures can/will be very lucrative so you must be nimble – hence T.A. is very suitable right now. I am sure you can time off peer earnings and your instincts but charts provide more objective analysis for me.
The best part of TA is understanding and anticipating “potential” support and resistance points (this recent range bound trading was a great example and was very lucrative, especially today).
Anyway, the VIX is forecasting months of this type of action going forward so I will keep employing TA for trading rather than investing off “Big picture,” but I am happy it works for you!
Pat-
To be honest, I am too lazy to do TA. I have no doubt that it has merit when employed by a knowledgeable person. I use the VIX (thanks, Gio) as a guide and I do occasionally look at support / resistance, but not often. It couldn’t hurt for me to learn more about it. I guess I have always been from the school “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”. Thanks for the dialogue and good luck.
These are all pieces of the puzzle. I find a nuanced blend of “big picture” analysis, use of TA indicators and gradual shifts long/short to be extraordinarily effective. It is impossible to nail every single daily move using any method, but the weekly/monthly swings are pretty easy to catch (and quite lucrative) if you take advantage of the strengths of each analytical approach.