Market setting up for a big drop:
Joined Jan 27, 2008
7,405 Blog Posts
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64k question, is when?
RedHat (RHT) does not care what the market is doing !!!
The insiders are selling, and the P/E is 37, yet it keeps going up. CEO and president just reduced his holdings today.
What’s odd, no, is that I have TWO separate fib lines lying at 875.20 — one a short term 50% (“fiddy”) line from the 11/4/08 high to 11/21/08 low, and the other longer term 23.6% line from the intermediate 8/15/08 high to the 11/21/08 low.
So I would consider these “weak” fib lines both alone (as I only consider the 38’s and 62’s “strong”), but together, maybe some they reveal some strength for support?
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Moreover:
On the SPY, I’ve got the upward sloping trend line at $87.56 or so, and that too would be my indicator, upon a break or a hard bounce.
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That graph looks juicy, especially considering 855 has already been tested 4 different times. Still keeping a tight conditional stop for my shorts if this market gets above 890. I am also watching the XLF, which is fighting for its life right now, but we won’t know until the close.
you got your swagger back
Gee you finally figured it out. I knew that a month ago.
XOM low of the day
Sorry, anon above was me. Why do we have to log in before commenting? Please fix this.
nice move up on SRS today.
From TBP
Citi-Morg
That’s what you get when you merge Citigroup and Morgan Stanley . . .
Hey RC,
In the yearly stock contest, I picked short SPG, but on the list it calculates me as long.
Thanks.
Big Winners on the Weekly Top 10 list today. Updates later tonight– Busy day for me
@DevilDog: I’ll see what Jeremy can do.
@Boca: SRS is free to run, overhead resistance clear. Same goes for FXP.
@MrKCBill: Good stuff
@BOB: I’ll fix that for you
@Boca: SRS is free to run, overhead resistance clear. Same goes for FXP.
I wouldn’t expect the usual TA to work for derivatives. Seems to me that you need to take a look at a good sampling of the stocks underlying the diETFs and see if the stocks are free to drop.
They are free to drop.
Thanks RC.
Ott, thanks, I’m following VNO’s decline as my reality double-check for SRS.
where is there a link to the contest? Can you put it up on the ibc home page?
RC, whats a good stop for SRS?
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pgO4gR12THCnAD7iNEGwXRw
The top 14 holdings in the DJUSRE index account for 50% of the weighting.
Simon Property Group Inc. Retail REITs
Annaly Capital Management Inc. Mortgage REITs
Public Storage Specialty REITs
Vornado Realty Trust Diversified REITs
Equity Residential Residential REITs
Boston Properties Inc. Industrial & Office REITs
HCP Inc. Specialty REITs
Plum Creek Timber Co. Inc. REIT Specialty REITs
Avalonbay Communities Inc. Residential REITs
Kimco Realty Corp. Retail REITs
Ventas Inc. Specialty REITs
Health Care REIT Inc. Specialty REITs
Host Hotels & Resorts Inc. Hotel & Lodging REITs
DJUSRE index subsector weightings (largest in subsector):
23.1% Specialty REITs (Public Storage)
20.1% Industrial & Office REITs (Boston Prop.)
19.4% Retail REITs (Simon Prop.)
14.5% Residential REITs (Equity Residential)
7.3% Mortgage REITs (Annaly Capital)
7.1% Diversified REITs (Vornado)
4.1% Hotel & Lodging REITs (Host Hotels)
3.0% Real Estate Holding & Development (St. Joe)
1.3% Real Estate Services (CB Richard Ellis)
Depending on where you draw your lines there’s a broadening top formed here as well. If SPY 85 gives today we could see a waterfall.
http://www.srsfinance.com/stock-market-commentary/broadening-top-pattern/