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The “Be Careful” Rally

First off, let it be known that I called and #Rampstamped the millennial-generational-bottom in stocks for 2016 (last Wednesday).

I wasn’t the least bit shocked from the latest rally.  A psychological tell that will always mark a bottom is when people tell you to be careful.

You’re going to buy $SPY OTM calls? Be careful!

You’re going to buy oil stocks? Be careful!

You’re going to buy a Powerball ticket? Be careful!

You’re going to buy the market at ATHs? Be careful!

Who are you, my mother?  Don’t tell me when to be careful.  The market is made for risk taking.  And the moment you should be taking on the most risk is when people tell you to be careful.  They are telling you to be careful because they are scared.  They are worried that the world is coming to an end and they don’t have the balls to buy so they treat everyone like their children.



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Before We All Die, Let’s Take A Peek Inside Your Mind

2016 has been a groundhog day of sorts.  Every day we seem to be stuck in the same circle jerk, ultimately leading us lower to a timely and sudden death.  If you are unsure of what I speak about, let’s take a peek inside your mind:

If we gap up it goes like this:

9:30 am: “Sweet, looks like we will be making some money today.  The open looks strong.”

10:30 am: “Damn, we faded a little bit, probably a good time to add a little on the dip.”

11:30 am: “Why the fuck did I buy the dip?”

12:30 pm: “My wife is going to divorce me for losing our nest egg.”

1:30 pm: “Should I jump out the window or live another day?”

2:30 pm: “Ok, maybe I overreacted a little bit.  It looks like we are finally basing.”

3:30 pm: “OMG, there is a God. Thank you Ramp. Thank you.”

4:00 pm: “Well the market went from up 1% at the open to down 2% by lunch to down 1% by the close.  Feels almost like an up day yet all of my stocks are still down 5-10%!”

If we gap down it goes like this:

9:30 am: “God damnit, China.”

10:30 am: “God damnit, oil.”

11:30 am: “God damnit, biotechs.”

12:30 pm: “God damnit, Janet Yellen.”

1:30 pm: “God damnit, Gartman.  God damnit, CNBC.”

2:30 pm: “God damnit, oil.”

3:30 pm: “OMG, there is a God. Thank you Ramp. Thank you.”

4:00 pm: “Well the market went from down 3% at the open to down 2% at the close.  Feels almost like an up day yet all of my stocks are still down 5-10%!”

Even in a bear market there will be rallies.  But, all of those rallies are relative to the larger decline.  They make you feel like you win even though you are losing.  They mess with your psyche.  By the time you finally take a step back and look at the damage that was caused, you are down big and have to dig yourself out of a massive hole.  Don’t dig your own grave.

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Barber, Fix Me Up With A High Top Fade

I had a dream last night we would gap up 2% this morning.  When I awoke from my slumber I was happy to see futures were up nearly that amount (thanks pajama boys).  Sometimes dreams really do come true.

On gap up days like today I usually don’t pay much attention to the markets because normally it is in good hands.  In the past, when we would gap up like this, no one would be foolish enough to fade it because most likely it would be a “gap and camp” or a “gap and ramp” kind of day.

At the time of this writing, all pre-market and opening gap gains have been erased and we are hovering near the lows of the day.  This has been a pretty consistent theme for 2016.  So far this year, 8 out of 11 days have closed lower than the opening highs.

The demand for stocks is abysmal.  Sack up and buy something on the cheap, support your country.  These are the opportunities traders should be looking for.  Even a 2 or 3 day rally will flip the sentiment enough for a decent sized gain for long holders.

But, if the fade continues, it may just be best to stick with the 3:30-3:45 Ramp which is up 1.00% on the year.

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How To Avoid A Margin Call And Be Up On The Year

The margin calls are coming folks.  And I’m here to tell you how to avoid them.  It’s quite simple really.  Why do you consistently hold stocks overnight?  The S&P 500 is down 150 handles so far in 2016 and it’s the second god damned week of January.

The S&P 500 is down 5 out of 8 days (including today’s loss) while on the other hand buying from 3:30 to 3:45pm is up 6 out of 8 days.

Here are the numbers:

S&P 500 YTD: -8%

Nasdaq YTD: -9.6%

Dow YTD: -7.3%

Russell 2000 YTD: -10.8%

Buying $SPY at 3:30pm and selling at 3:45pm YTD: +0.69%

That is how you avoid a margin call.  And you can rub it in to all of your friends and family.

Stay safe.

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Throwback Thursday

I thought I’d shine a ray of light on 2016.

Currently the market is headed towards the fiery gates of hell with the S&P down a cool 100 handles in 2016.  But, if you’ve been following along, I am currently 3 for 3 this year on successful ramps and I intend to maintain my title as undisputed champ. #Humblebrag

Monday was an epic ramp, never forget.  I look forward to more of these this year.  Stay safe out their kiddos.


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Prepare For The Alien Invasion

The S&P 500 is already down +50 handles in the first 3 days of trading.  Futures are currently down another +20 handles and oil is hitting a 32 handle after the Chinese market got halted and then suspended for the entire day after dropping 7%.  The Chinese slowdown is real, children.

On Monday I asked my followers what they thought would come next.  Let’s analyze each one briefly.


Rate hike: Lol GTFO. Everyone knows the only reason the Fed hiked was so they could cut when shit like this was bound to happen.  They were getting ahead of the game.  The 19% who voted for this option are clearly short the market and I will find your stops.

Rate cut: This is a definite possibility.  I’d say once down 5% on the year we will cut back to 0-0.25 fed funds rate.  On a 10% decline we will look at more quantitative easing.

World War 3 came in close for second place which was good timing as North Korea recently announced they have successfully tested a hydrogen bomb.  USA quickly called their bullshit.

Alien invasion is the clear winner.  What better timing for an alien invasion to annihilate our species?  It really is quite genius.  The aliens are most likely watching us from the dark side of the moon.  They are going to strike us when our morale is in the gutter, when the world is suffering from demoralized losses in their trading accounts and diarrhea from eating too much Chipotle.

Get some sleep tonight.  Tomorrow is a big day.  If we open up with another gap down I may have to pull double duty.  We are fighting for our right to live in luxury.  I will not go quietly into the Ramp.

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A Guide To The Stock Picker’s Market

One of the Street’s favourite slogans consistently spewed from open-mouthed breathing guests on CNBC is “It’s a stock picker’s market.”  No shit.  It always has been.

This saying drives me up the wall.  I don’t invest in the market by being timid.  I don’t invest in the market by buying mutual or index funds because I don’t have time to do research.  I buy stocks.  I buy stocks that can go up +1000%.  I don’t want the shitty stocks of the bunch I want the best.  I want alpha and beta.  I want to outperform not market perform.  I want big gains and I want them yesterday.   I want to retire tomorrow, not in 35 years (or never).

Sure, you could have made +200% percent by picking the Krampus-lows of 666 back in March 2009.  But we all know you were scared to death to buy then, and even if you did, you sold a week or two later with a 5-10% gain.  Moreover, some of you were just hitting puberty.  What most likely happened is that you bought at 1000 thinking it was a nice round number (everyone loves round numbers for support levels). Then your portfolio proceeded to lose another 20% faster than you could say William Ackman.

You’re not gonna score huge biotech winners, buyouts and mergers, or other windfalls by being conservative. Put your neck on the line. Live a little. Make some coin and flaunt it in front of your neighbors. Scream it from the Twitter Finance rooftops.

Active management of your portfolio will allow you to make money in both up and down markets.  Buying an index fund you will lose money on down years.  We will have down years (unless I get a call from The PPT).

It’s a zero sum game and I plan on taking all of your money.

Merry Krampus Eve

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R.I.P. ZIRP (2008-2015)

The PPT wishes to express their sincere gratitude to all those who have supported us in this time of loss. Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) enjoyed increasing the wealth gap, lowering unemployment, and pushing stocks to ATHs. ZIRP’s greatest achievement was bringing the United States out of a depression and returning it to its former glory. ZIRP’s final days were spent surrounded by family, friends, and homegamers that ZIRP had touched in some small way throughout its short, yet very memorable life. ZIRP is survived by:

• Janet L. Yellen, Board of Governors, Chair
• William C. Dudley, New York, Vice Chairman
• Lael Brainard, Board of Governors
• Charles L. Evans, Chicago
• Stanley Fischer, Board of Governors
• Jeffrey M. Lacker, Richmond
• Dennis P. Lockhart, Atlanta
• Jerome H. Powell, Board of Governors
• Daniel K. Tarullo, Board of Governors
• John C. Williams, San Francisco

Alternate Members
• James Bullard, St. Louis
• Esther L. George, Kansas City
• Loretta J. Mester, Cleveland
• Eric Rosengren, Boston
• Michael Strine, First Vice President, New York

Ben Bernanke, Alan Greenspan, Paul Volcker are listed as pallbearers.



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$GPRO – Camera On A Shtick

Let’s start off with some basic questions surrounding GoPro cameras:

Are they cool? Yes.

Are they relatively cheap? Yes.

Am I an extreme athlete? No.

Do I use it enough to consistently upgrade? No.

The first GoPro I purchased was the Hero 2 Outdoor Edition.  I used it for surfing, snowboarding, golfing and high stakes poker games.  The thing is, I don’t surf or snowboard very often, and even when I do, the videos suck because I don’t do double backflips or ride the barrels and get pitted. If I want to watch golf reruns I’ll watch the 1997 Masters.  If I want to watch high stakes poker I’ll watch the World Series of Poker on ESPN. Re-watching all of the videos I took is worse than watching amateur porn.

Not only does my GoPro collect dust most of the year, it also takes up massive amounts of storage.  You basically have to purchase an external hard drive or get extra cloud storage to save your videos.  A couple of sessions of recording in 4k and you are looking at over 25Gb of data. Most people don’t even have that much storage on their iPhone.

The thing I hated about the Hero 2 was that it didn’t have a wifi connection, LCD display to see the pictures or videos, and it consistently froze.

My chick recently won a free Hero 4 Black Edition which shoots in 4k.  It was definitely an upgrade over the Hero 2 but it still doesn’t make me a better athlete.  It still collects as much dust as my first one.

Yesterday morning GoPro announced they were releasing a drone.  The stock popped 11.5% but is still down 73% from its 52 week high set only a few months ago.  The drone is a good idea to expand their markets and keep the innovation flowing but it still doesn’t get me excited that much.  99.99% of us are not extreme athletes that need a GoPro camera or a drone to record our lives.  You sit at your desks all day staring at a computer screen waiting for me to ramp the close. Your lives are boring and no one wants to see your shitty GoPro movies.

This morning Citi lowered their price target on $GPRO from 75 to 22 #nailedit.  Like them, I expect demand to remain soft as this fad plays out and other competitors fight for market share.

GoPro is the Eastman Kodak for Millennials.  Their best case scenario is that they get bought out before they go bankrupt.  It’s a camera on a shtick.


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