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Prepare For A Trump Vs. Eminem Rap Battle

Last night at the BET (Black Entertainment Television) Hip-Hop awards, Eminem came out swinging against Trump.  He definitely spit out some hot bars.  Consider this the opening round.  I can almost with 100% certainty guarantee that Trump will respond to this.  My hope is that 106 and Park will be uncancelled and bring Eminem and Trump on together to battle it out on a Freestyle Friday.  Since the odds of that happening are very low I guess we will have to settle for a tweet storm.  If you haven’t seen the video yet check it out below.

I guess Eminem already forgot that back in 2004 Trump endorsed him at the Shady National Convention…

This isn’t the first time that Eminem has verbally criticized a President in rap.  In his anti-Bush song “Mosh”, Eminem criticizes the Iraq war.

In the Dr. Dre-produced track, the rapper denounces the war in Iraq. “Rebel with a rebel yell, raise hell,” Eminem raps. “We gonna let him know/Stomp, push, shove, mush, fuck Bush!/Until they bring our troops home.” Later in the song, he adds, “Let the president answer on higher anarchy/Strap him with an AK-47, let him go fight his own war/Let him impress daddy that way . . . No more blood for oil.”

Clearly Eminem stands on the left side of the political spectrum which is completely understandable based on his upbringing.

Taking a hard turn here, look at Keith Olbermann trying to ride the heels of Eminem and get noticed by going full retard.

Just because someone stands up against Trump doesn’t make them a 2020 candidate.  If anyone has said worse things than Trump publicly throughout their career, it has been Eminem.  Just Google some of his lyrics from Slim Shady LP.  I guess “rap talk” is the same as “locker room talk”.  Either way I’m still an 8 mile fan.

But I digress, let’s watch the fireworks and wait for Trump to respond. Hopefully he brings Spicer and Bannon back to help him write some retaliation bars.


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CNN Should Buy Twitter

Hear me out…

Trump has been dominating the headlines the past few days, drawing ire from the most ridiculous tweet of the year.  In case you’ve just awoken from your pre-4th of July blackout coma, please watch the video below.

Being a redneck conservative and old school wrestling fan, I thought the video was comical but also insane. Unless you absolutely hate Trump’s guts, I would venture to say his post at least made you smirk a little or at least shake your head in bewilderment.  But, once you started seeing the media’s reaction, you acted in disgust and contempt.  Every time he posts something insane like this I think to myself, “Yup, this is gonna be the one that gets him impeached.”

Could you imagine if Obama did something like this?

Trump will go down in the troll hall of fame with this post and mainstream media cannot stop talking about it or him for that matter.  The post kicked off a witch hunt led by CNN to find the person responsible for creating the video.  Leftists were also calling for Twitter to ban Donald Trump.  Lest we forget that not less than 2 months ago, Jack Dorsey said Donald Trump’s tweets are good and he should keep posting them.

But, let’s get back to why CNN should buy Twitter and the steps they can take to regain a sliver of their dignity.

  1. Buy Twitter (for an insane premium so I can sell and get back to even).
  2. Fire Jack Dorsey (so someone else can put in an edit button).
  3. Make Anderson Cooper CEO of Twitter (he seems like the Silicon Valley type).
  4. Make Trump apologize (lol).
  5. If Step 4 doesn’t work, ban Trump from Twitter. (to try and establish alpha male status).
  6. If Step 4 works, ban Trump from Twitter. (to 1-up the troll of all trolls).

The following playbook would most likely be the death blow for Twitter as a functioning product and company, but god damn it would be hilarious.  I can already picture Trump making all of his advisors produce anonymous egg accounts on a daily basis to barrage mainstream media with a lifetime supply of high level trolling.

CNN is owned by the Turner Broadcasting System division of Time Warner which is currently trying to close the merger with AT&T.  So when I say CNN should buy Twitter, I really mean AT&T/Time Warner should buy Twitter.

Full Disclosure: Long $TWTR. No position in $T or $TWX.

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No One Has Made Serious Coin From Bitcoin

I have a few friends who got in on the ground floor with $BTC and now $ETH and a handful of other cryptocurrencies.  I was in Portland a few months ago and just shook my head while I witnessed my buddy’s rig setup sitting next to some bongs.  Looking back through my texts, he was mining $ETH at $8 back in January.  Today it trades at $162.50, up a mere 1913% in 2017.  Totally normal action folks…if you are trading penny stocks.

To say that these cryptocurrencies are not in a bubble is foolish.  To say that these cryptocurrencies are in a bubble is foolish.  Either way, we are foolish.

Do you want to know the easiest way to spot a bubble?  It’s when the underlying asset is already in a long term uptrend and then that uptrend starts to shoot parabolic.  Looking at the chart of $BTC below you can clearly see an uptrend line that I drew that closely resembles the 200DMA.  Notice how every time it started moving parabolic it was quickly reminded of gravity and buyers regrouped near the long term uptrend line.  This is the largest difference between the uptrend line and the current price in the last 3 years.  As you’ve witnessed it has had an impeccable run from $1000 to $2300 in barely over a month’s time.  This doesn’t mean the crash is coming, but I will be there to remind you wen it tags the uptrend line again.

The other easy way to spot a bubble is when your friends send daily texts saying “Choo choo!!” or “Ride it, like a pony!”.

I don’t own any Bitcoin.  I don’t care to own any to be quite honest.  I’d rather own Rampcoin which is fully backed by the Fed.

I ran a series of polls yesterday and the results were pretty interesting.  As you can see 52% of the respondents don’t own a single bitcoin and 53% have made less than $1,000 (with the most likely number being $0).

By the way my definition of serious coin is >$100,000 and the poll results show 28% have made that much on $BTC. *cough* *coughbullshitcough* *cough*.

According to the table below, if you own 10 BTC you are in the top 2%, yet in my poll a combined 24% said they owned >10 coins.


The reason I say no one has made serious coin is because 1) people are liars and 2) people are emotional.  Do you honestly think if you got into Bitcoin in 2010 that you wouldn’t have sold it after it being up 100 or even 1,000%?  Humans are programmed to take profits and cut their winners.  What I find so funny about these cryptocurrencies is how you could buy a pizza one day and a Mercedes the next day.  Again, totally normal.

I’m sure this post will get all of the cryptofreaks out gunning for my head, calling me a blasphemer.  How about you tweet me your statements that show how much you made and I will follow anyone who has made over $100k.

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$SNAP Bids Disappearing Quicker Than Male Reproductive Organ Pictures

$SNAP is getting annihilated again today, trading down 11% at around the $21 level, already well below Thursday’s open IPO price.  Some poor soul paid $29.44 for shares on Friday and it’s already down approximately 30% from the highs in 2 days.  This is and will continue to be an extremely volatile stock as “investors” try to determine a fair value for Snapchat’s Penis to Earnings ratio as well as growth of their MADPs (Monthly Average Dick Pics).

When are we going to stop caring about eyeballs and start caring about real profits?  This appears to be another failed IPO and is eerily reminiscent of $FB IPO where it dropped 50% in a matter of weeks and everyone all but gave up on it around the mid teens only to see it climb multiples higher.  I could see the former happening here, but not the latter.

Full disclosure: I do use $SNAP on pretty much a daily basis but I could easily go without using it for a while.  The same could not be said for $TWTR.  People get on $SNAP to send nudes and humblebrag with their stories.  People get on $TWTR to read the news and check Trump tweets.  People get on $FB to complain about their life and post baby pictures.  People get on Instagram to look at pictures of cats and girls with big butts.

I think $SNAP is another fad and their moat is not very wide.  Look at Instagram, they’ve already completely copied the disappearing message and My Story concept.  It’s only a matter of time before $FB starts eating more and more into $SNAPs revenue and eyeballs as they appear to be a one trick pony.  Don’t get me wrong, their growth in the past 5 years is unremarkable and extremely impressive.  But without profits to back up those numbers, what do you really have?

From a Business Insider article a month ago:

Snapchat parent company Snap Inc. posted a net loss of $514.6 million in 2016, according to the initial public offering prospectus it filed on Thursday.

The company’s losses have been widening in recent quarters as Snap ramps up spending and hiring.

Snap also said that it “may never achieve or maintain profitability,” as it plans to continue investing heavily in its business.

In quick summary, I wouldn’t buy or short this thing unless you like to be a glutton for punishment.  Way too unpredictable.  In the long run the fundamentals will give you the fair price.  The only problem is how do you read the fundamentals?

I found this picture from the future.  Haters will say it is photoshopped.

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Punxsutawney Phil Sees Shadow; Sets Stage For 3 Rate Hikes In 2017

While most of you were recovering this morning from last night’s rioting in Berkley, Punxsutawney Phil was up early checking out his shadow.  This is very ominous as it means we can expect 6 more weeks of winter and 3 more rate hikes in 2017.  I don’t typically believe in this kind of voodoo but Punxsutawney Phil also predicted a Trump win last year.  Sad.

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Humans Are Notoriously Bad At Making Predictions

I ran a poll storm right before Inauguration Day (1/20/17) so that we can keep a record of how bad humans are at predicting things.  Robots, on the contrary, are very good at predicting things because we don’t have emotions.

All of the polls stayed within a +/- 5% range which to me just reiterates the fact that no one has a clue what President Trump is really going to do during his tenure and how it will affect the markets.  To me these polls resemble current investor sentiment as everyone is rooting against President Trump and criticizing every single one of his actions now.  This gives a higher probability for an upside surprise as the fear mongering will continue for the next 4 years.

All poll results said we will be lower 1 week, 1 month, 6 months, and 1 year after Inauguration Day.  I will be keeping track throughout the year of how we end up and will be reporting updates periodically.  So far humans are 0 for 1 as the S&P 500 was up 1% the week after Inauguration Day.


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How To Talk To Your Pets About Multiple Rate Hikes In 2017

I ran a poll last week to get a gauge of how many times the Fed will raise rates in 2017.  Over 1,000 votes were tabulated which was good enough for most 2016 Presidential voting polls.  I consider 1,000 votes from my followers to be a much better and unbiased gauge of the market than any other poll put out by some $29.99 newsletter slinger.

The responses were fairly evenly spread out if you combine “cut rates” with “zero”.  Therefore, 1/3 of people think the Fed will cut or not hike at all, 1/3 think one hike, and 1/3 think two or more hikes are on the way.  Fair enough.  Let’s see what some of our friends think…



For those not in tune with the Fed dates, below is the full calendar for the potential to hike multiple times or kick the can throughout the year.


I can promise you this: the longer the Dow stays below the all-important 20,000 level, the longer the Fed continues to kick the can.  Lest we not forget that the Fed has only hiked two times in the past 10 years.  I also imagine Trump is still waiting for a handwritten thank you letter and Christmas card from the Fed for allowing them to hike with confidence after the election without having to endure the same outcome that came from the first hike back in December 2015.  The fact that the market was unwavered by the 2nd hike in a decade shows to the strength of the rhetoric and pro-business and pro-growth policies that Donald Trump has been preaching.

The reason Fed policy is so difficult to predict is because the market is difficult to predict.  Most likely they use too many metrics so that if 1 out of 99 of them flashes a red warning signal they can justify kicking the can.  Also risks and ramps happen fast.  Right now they are playing catch up.  If the economy and Dow continue to improve then yes we could see multiple hikes in 2017.  But, if we get one hint of uncertainty, you better believe the Fed will sit on their hands and let the market come back into their playing field.  Right now it’s President-elect Trump’s move with the inauguration looming next week.  If we get a buy the election sell the inauguration outcome we will continue to see the Fed sit on their hands for the time being and the Dot Plot will be reorganized once again.

I’ll set a mental note to circle back to this article after the December meeting to see how we did.

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A Tale Of Two Charts

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of bullishness.  -Charles Dickens

The two charts below show the US Fed Funds Rate and the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 1970-2016.  Note the area of recessions and how they coincide with peaks in the US Fed Funds rate.



In short: We haven’t started a recession when the Fed Funds Rate was below 4-5%.  Currently we are at 0.25-0.5 bps and there is a 95% chance the Fed will raise to 0.5-0.75 bps.

Room to run?  Or is this the new normal?

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97% Chance Of December Rate Hike, 0% Chance Of Selloff

It should be no surprise that the Fed is hiking rates in December.  The only surprise would be if they hiked to 75-100 bps instead of the 50-75 bps that is predicted.  They can thank President-elect DJ Trump for rates exploding to the upside.  I wonder how treasuries would have reacted if HRC would have won the election.

Courtesy of CME Group

As it currently stands the US10YR is yielding 2.44% and the US30YR is yielding 3.11%, up 84% and 48% respectively from the post-Brexit lows in July.  That is not a typo folks, both long term yields are up over 100 basis points and all of the pundits and media are proclaiming the banks are about to enter another golden age.  Financials continue to dominate and most haven’t seen levels this high since Occupy Wall Street as they too have been stuck in the mud from the Fed policy.  I can promise you this, there will be an Occupy Wall Street 2.0 very soon, believe me.  I also can’t help but marvel over the rising rates as I was lucky enough to lock in my home refinance in early October before they really started exploding to the upside.

As long as the Fed sticks to their dot plot, we shouldn’t have much to worry about right?  As Fed-head Dudley said this morning, he favors gradual rate hikes if the economy stays on track.  In other news, the sky is blue.  But, if it changes colors, we won’t hike.

Courtesy of CME Group

With everyone and their grandma knowing that this rate hike is coming, there should be no surprise selloff like last December and at the start of this year.  But, as I always say, the market will do what most people don’t see coming.  Eventually, the tone will change on Wall Street that every rate hike from here on out will be labeled as bullish.  Watch and see.

The Dow hit another ATH this morning.  Merry Christmas ya filthy animals.

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