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WARNING: Come With Me If You Want To Live

I’m showing you guys this because I want you to live.  I want you to live a life of luxury and gluttony.

As it turns out, I’ve been working twice as long as I’ve needed to for the past 10 years.  Looks like the 3:30 Ramp will now be concluding at 3:45pm.  This will now give me an extra 15 minutes to enjoy another cocktail or three at happy hour.

In case you don’t know how to read military time, I’m the red line at the top right (click picture to enlarge).

God Bless.

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Photo courtesy of Eric Scott Hunsader @nanexllc

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Chipotlaway

I’m going to be straight up here:  I love eating Chipotle.

Those little rat burritos are muy delicioso. I could easily put down 2 burritos in one sitting if need be.  It disheartens me to see $CMG stock getting thrown into the shitter (literally) because of a few people getting E. coli.

Am I scared of a little E. coli?  Not really.  I thought it was normal to have a colon blow experience an hour or two after digesting a massive burrito bowl or two.  Throw in a 40 oz jug of coffee on top of that and you’re gonna have a bad time.

Anyways, this little E. coli business bothers me only in the slightest.  People are going to eat fast food to fuel the obesity epidemic, but what other fast food alternatives are you going to eat if you are a paleo freak (which is also becoming more mainstream)?  Chipotle has a higher risk of food-borne illness outbreaks based on the freshness of their meat and produce.  McDonald’s and other crappy fast food restaurants don’t have as much risk because all of their food is made in a laboratory with copious amounts of preservatives.  Choose your death: Clogged arteries or dysentery.

This stock will probably continue to get beaten down in the short term as Chipotle has already mentioned that they have already started to receive a lot of negative publicity which has in turn forced them to close a few locations.  This will result in a decline in sales and may also affect the price and availability of their produce and livestock.  Obviously this will be a cascading effect that will carry into their next earnings report.  The Street doesn’t think those numbers are priced in yet.

Right now it continues to trend lower (Update: stock up 3% this morning), but at some point this will all blow over and $CMG will continue its march higher.  It hasn’t been this oversold since the second half of 2012.  I don’t really care about their fundamentals.  My channel checks consist of standing in line for 15-20 minutes every time I walk into a Chipotle restaurant.  There are no alternatives in this space.  Don’t even dare say Qdoba is a close comparison.  Your brain has been fogged by preservatives and polyunsaturated fats.

In the meantime, if you still feel like risking it by eating a Chipotle burrito and/or buying the stock, make sure you are wearing your Chipotlaway pants.

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How To Talk To Your Kids About Tax Loss Selling

It’s a touchy subject but one that must be had.

“But mom/dad, why did you continue dollar cost averaging on your energy positions?”

“Well, son/daughter, we read way too many articles saying this was the bottom in oil and we got caught holding the bag.  Now we have no more money left.”

The S&P 500 has gone negative again for the year this morning, yet your portfolios are down 5-10% if not greater.  There is no sense in denying it by going on Twitter and telling every one how you are “killing the game” this year.  Instead of buying at 3:30pm and selling at 4pm everyday you decided to bottom pick oil at $50, $40, lower.  You thought the biotech gravy train would never end so I’m sure you’ve also endured sizable losses in that sector as well.  Let’s face it, when it is all said and done, energy and biotech has completely ruined your 2015.  You could have been 60% cash and still be down 10% on the year if you owned just 1 or 2 of these toxic names.

So really the only thing that you need to do at this point is sell your losses to save on taxes.  All of those days you made short term capital gains by buying the 3:30 Ramp can be offset by selling your dog shit energy and biotech holdings.

And this of course is going to continue to weigh on these sectors throughout the remainder of 2015.

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Christmas Is Cancelled

It was only 2 days ago: We were all putting up the Christmas lights, drinking egged nog, and having a merry olde time watching the S&P 500 close above 2100 for the first time since the Paris attacks. Christmas and NYE were in play.  Holiday cheer was abound minus the typical bear grinch.

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Fast-forward to today and we are a cool 50 handles below the highs set on the 1st of December.  Let me tell you straight up kids.  If this shit continues, not only will there NOT be a December rate hike, but Christmas will also be cancelled.  And we aren’t even going to bring up NYE at this point.

You need to ask yourself if selling $SPX is worth losing 2 holidays?  Is it worth ruining Christmas for your children?  Think about this every time you put in a sell order.  I expect better of “you people”.

 

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The Walking Dead Consumer

Was it a surprise that Thanksgiving and Black Friday sales were down YoY?  It shouldn’t have been if you were looking at the subtle signs.  Gas is basically free right now yet retail earnings on the whole have been dog shit (minus athletic wear) as consumers have decided to save some of their sideline money instead of spending it.  Also, why the hell are Black Friday deals now starting a week or two in advance?  It seems they must be getting more desperate for higher sales.

I receive spam coupons via email on a weekly basis for 40% off Dick’s Sporting Goods, Banana Republic, et. al.  All of them say “Flash sale!” or “One day only!” but I continue to get them week after week after they don’t succeed at lowering their inventory or enticing the consumer.  So when it comes time for Black Friday deals I see nothing that hasn’t already been offered at a discounted rate.  And the things that are being discounted suck anyways.  It’s just a trick for the retailer to free up some of their stocked inventory of shitty items that no one else wanted previously.

Even though they are predicting $1 in $7 are going to be spent online this holiday shopping season, the retail store consumer is dead.  I probably spend $6 in $7 online.  The only thing I actually go to the store to buy is red meat from a local butcher to feed my carnivorous family.  And even now you can still find ways to avoid doing this.  Going to any retail store in broad daylight and being exposed to the masses is a painful experience for me.  I look at everyone in disgust as they go about their pathetic lives.  I wait in line behind people thinking if they would just hurry the hell up I could get out of here before contracting some incurable bacterial infection.

Consumers piss me off.  Buy your shit online like an adult.  You get to read reviews, not stand in line, not have to pack it in your beat up paddy wagon, and most times buy the item cheaper online.  When I am forced to go to the store, instead of buying an item, I scan the bar code with my phone then proceed to buy it online as I walk past the picket lines outside requesting $15/hr salaries.

One time I was at a store and asked the clerk to try on a pair of snowboarding boots.  My strategy was already planned out.  I was going to go to the dressing room, try on the boots, and if they fit well I would scan the bar code and buy online.  Clearly I didn’t have my poker face on that day as the clerk just looked at me and said “No, you are just going to go buy them online”.  He wouldn’t let me try them on.  I was stunned.  Looking back at it now, how bad are the comparable prices at retail stores when a clerk won’t let you try on an item before buying it because they are afraid you will buy it online if you like it?  Granted, the store was notorious for overpricing a lot of their items so I wasn’t going to buy anything in the first place.  But still, what an asshat.

I guess the moral of the story is to stop buying things in the store and start buying them online. You will save money every time.

Speaking of buying things online, good luck on your Cyber Monday online shopping today.  I’m looking for a badass new 4k teevee.

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Release The Savages

There is going to be a holiday travel boom, projected to be the busiest travel season since 2007.  A couple of days ago the State Department issued a worldwide travel alert, which has only happened 4 times in the past 4 years.

The zombie hordes (AKA lower-middle class) will be out on the town, high on bathing salts.  They will be coming out from the shadows to rip out your jugular and steal your TV that you purchased for 80% off on your EBT card.

I’m actually looking for a new washer and dryer for my $10M starter home.  I’m sure a lot of you are thinking “Ramp is loaded, why would he do his own laundry? Why not just get everything dry-cleaned?”.  Well, children, I guess I’m just old-fashioned.  I should just make my maids wash everything by hand with an antique washboard.

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Regardless, I don’t actually plan on going out to the front lines of the battlefield to purchase said washer and dryer, that would be too risky.  I’ll either hire some degenerate off of Craigslist or just comb the internet until I find a deal online.  With it being a shortened day of trading, the American people need me at the helm, not out roaming the streets like a crazed lunatic.

Full disclosure: the standard 3:30pm ramp will be pushed up to 12:30pm ET because of the shortened trading day.

The tribe has spoken.

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Sneak Peek Inside Janet’s Thanksgiving Dinner

Here is a list of items that Janet is preparing for her Thanksgiving dinner and what each one represents:

  • Cranned berries – The only red item on her plate.  She doesn’t like anything red, especially stocks, but this is one exception as it helps with her occasional urinary tract infections.  Cranned berries won’t kill the bacteria but they will run them out of town, similar to what she is trying to do to short sellers.  With biotech stocks still at lofty valuations she prefers traditional home remedies in lieu of overpriced drugs whilst she is short the entire sector.
  • Sweet Potatoes (Extra Marshmallows) – An aphrodisiac and an ode to Henry VIII, they know how to get her heart pumping.
  • Turkey – Killed by her bare hands, the turkey represents free market capitalism. Benjamin Franklin once wrote a letter to his daughter claiming that the turkey was a much more respectable bird than a bald eagle.  I think Janet would eat both but her deteriorating sight makes her a bad shot.
  • Gravy –  This represents the market gravy train known as the Federal Reserve.
  • Greened Bean Casserole – This represents the little guys and their green portfolios. Greened bean casserole was invented by accident and was intended for lower middle class people who could only afford Campbell’s cream of mushroom soup. She eats this to let the homegamers know she is on their side.
  • Pumpkin Pie – This delicious delight is said to have origins traced back to 17th century France.  Janet will plan on having a couple of slices with cooled whip to pay respect to the recent terrorist attacks in Paris.

All of this will be topped off with a couple of cranned berry vodkas while checking out Black Friday specials at Hobby Lobby.

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What Are You Thankful For?

It doesn’t really matter what you are thankful for.  But here’s what I’m thankful for:

  • Buybacks
  • Non-GAAP earnings
  • Quantitative easing
  • Low interest rates
  • Widening wealth gaps
  • Janet’s health
  • The PPT
  • HFTs providing extra liquidity

The list could go on for a while but those are just some of my favorites.

Don’t forget to weigh yourself before and after you eat so you can keep track of how disgusting you are.  Today is a day of gluttony.

Happy Thanksgiving.

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Do Math

How can you expect to succeed in the stocked market when you suck at math and don’t think outside of the box?  I took every math class possible during my schooling and never got below an “A”, not even an “A-” (granted, I am a robot so computing is easy for me).

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81% of you got this answer wrong because you greedily took to the Google machine to try and find an answer.  Most of you were fooled by the third statement in the series 1816 = 6.  Most times I’ve seen this problem it has been 1816 = 3.  Which makes the problem easier because all you have to do is count the number of circles in each number series. And if that was the case, then the correct answer would have been 2.  For this problem though:

9999 = 4 because there are 4 circles and 0 ones.

8888 = 8 because there are 8 circles and 0 ones.

1816 = 6 because there are 3 circles and 2 ones (3 x (1+1))

1212 = 0 because there are 0 circles and 2 ones (0 x (1+1))

therefore, 1919 = 4 because there are 2 circles and 2 ones (2 x (1+1)).

 

Start doing math problems in your spare time if you ever want to stand a chance against me in the market.

$STUDY

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